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2026-10-30 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
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Victor Davis Hanson: Is the Iran War About to Enter Its Final Phase?
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[Daily Signal] Hello, this is Victor Davis Hanson for the Daily Signal.
We’re at about 240 days since the Feb. 28 beginning of the so-called Iran war. We’re about five days from the midterm. The mantra of the Left and the Democratic Party, the Islamicist socialist alliance, is the war is lost. It’s Vietnam, a quagmire. The strait is closed.
Before we analyze that, just remember certain data that’s not in dispute. The last three days, about 24 million barrels have left the Gulf’s exporting countries. In other words, they’re leaving through the Strait of Hormuz primarily at a level at or higher than during the period before the war, and they’re also leaving the Red Sea, and they’re also going out of the Strait of Oman.
The problem is not oil. It’s making up for the dearth of distillery. The distilleries in Russia have been hit by Ukraine. We don’t have enough in Western countries, so there’s a bottleneck on the refinement end, not on the supply.
We may have a kind of a short period where we have to catch up, but there is enough oil going out now, as much as there was in the pre-war. That suggests that this war is not going to affect oil prices into next year. It may have an effect on the midterms.
More importantly, though, we think that a strike is coming right after the midterms. We think that because Iran is preparing for it. They are trying to fortify their bunkers for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. There are rumors they’re threatening us with new weapons. They promise to destroy the oil fields of the Gulf, all of this rhetoric. And [President] Donald Trump says he wants to end this war after the midterms.
That raises a lot of questions that we don’t have the answers to. We’ve been talking about how many drones and missiles, we can call them the numerator, that we have destroyed, but we’ve never really known the denominator, how many existing drones and missiles were in the Iranian fleet before the war started. And we’re finding out that they were preparing for years for this war, and all through the Iranian mountain ranges, there are bunkers with mobile launchers almost everywhere.
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Posted by Besoeker 2026-10-30 02:59||
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