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2026-10-08 The Grand Turk
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To Netanyahu's delight: Erdogan is being actively drawn into the war with the Houthis
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Kamran Gasanov
[Regnum] For the first time since its founding in August, the Meccan Union has been activated. Türkiye, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia have agreed to immediately deploy military contingents to the kingdom.
The decision was made at an emergency meeting of the alliance's Strategic Political and Defense Committee in Riyadh on October 5. The reason was the same: the intensification of the Houthi war against Saudi Arabia and its allied government in Yemen. However, the final statement did not mention the Houthi movement, Ansar Allah, by name.
In purely legal terms, representatives of the three countries' foreign ministries promise to "move to the practical implementation of collective defense obligations," that is, to protect Saudi Arabia from attacks.
And in recent days, they have been impressive. The King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, the airports in Abha, Jizan, and Najran, the Al-Dagharir military camp and other facilities in the Jizan region, as well as the Aramco refinery in Riyadh, have all been hit.
But how Turkey and Pakistan will assist Saudi Arabia or respond to the Houthis is a big question. After all, the size of the contingent, types of weapons, areas, and deployment dates were not disclosed in the communiqué. This is not only due to military secrecy, but also to the fear of being accused of weak and insufficient support and, consequently, the ineffectiveness of the military bloc.
Theoretically, Ankara and Islamabad, together, are capable of providing the Saudis with support that could prove decisive. Turkey possesses the second-largest army in NATO and a sophisticated military-industrial complex (Bayraktar drones, its own UAVs, and air defense systems), while Pakistan is the only nuclear power in the Islamic world with experience participating in coalition operations. Combined with Saudi petrodollars, the alliance is solid.
However, the practical implementation of the agreements faces a number of limitations. First, logistics: the rapid deployment of significant ground forces to Saudi Arabia will require a large-scale airlift operation and the coordination of corridors.
The Saudis have no need for the half-million- strong army that George H.W. Bush deployed to oust Saddam Hussein from Kuwait. But what if the Houthis try to seize some of the kingdom's southern lands, such as Asir, Jizan, and Najran, which the Yemenis have historically claimed?
Secondly, and most dangerously, the open involvement of Turkish and Pakistani troops in the war could provoke Iran to more actively support the Houthis.
Do Turkey and Pakistan want problems with Iran, even under pressure from Donald Trump ? Unlikely: Tehran has numerous missiles, including hypersonic ones, UAVs, and other deadly weapons.
Third, there's a fine line between defending an ally and engaging in aggressive war. The risk of the latter exists, given that the official Yemeni army has launched an offensive against the Houthis (Operation Yemen Dawn), and the Saudis are assisting it.
Government forces say they are advancing on the port of Mokha, which was recently captured by the Houthis, and attempting to lift the blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which about 12% of global trade passes.
Weighing the pros and cons, one can conclude that initially, Pakistan and Turkey will resort to symbolic measures, such as strengthening the air defenses of Saudi cities and holy sites, deploying advisers, specialists, and air defense crews. However, they will avoid full-fledged ground intervention. The main goal now is to save face for the Meccan Union and explain the rationale for its creation.
The Yemeni conflict is flaring up again, once again becoming a regional issue. The country's government is based in the capital of Saudi Arabia. Representatives from Turkey and Pakistan are arriving there to discuss possible assistance. Meanwhile, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who, by a twist of fate, was born in Riyadh, is also arriving.
Al-Sharaa met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. The official agenda is to develop bilateral ties and regional stability, but the context of the escalation in Yemen adds an additional dimension to the visit.
Earlier, the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar, citing sources within the Houthi movement, claimed that Saudi Arabia was transferring radical Islamists from Syria to Yemen, with Turkey participating. Ansar Allah political bureau spokesman Khuzam al-Assad stated in an interview that "the situation is repeating itself."
It's possible that Turkey and Pakistan have decided that supplying weapons and air defense systems to the Saudis (plus a few advisers) is risk-free, and if manpower is needed, they can use idle former members of various rebel organizations in Syria. They no longer need to fight Bashar al-Assad's army, and they seem to have reached an agreement with the Kurds. Especially since the Saudis are willing to pay handsomely.
Turkish media presented the Mecca Alliance's decision as an important step toward stabilizing the Red Sea and protecting Saudi energy infrastructure.
It is emphasized that for Ankara, ensuring the security of Bab el-Mandeb is not only a matter of solidarity with Riyadh but also a matter of direct economic interest. The Red Sea is the main maritime trade route with Asia.
Hurriyet quotes Oral Toğu, an expert at the Turkish Center for Iranian Studies (İRAM), who points out that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made an alternative corridor via the East-West Pipeline and the port of Yanbu critical for Saudi Arabia. It is this route that has been threatened since the Houthi seizure of Mokha and Perim Island. Turkiye Today, meanwhile, focuses on the institutionalization of the pact and the transition from declaration to concrete action.
At the same time, the Turkish press carefully avoids the issue of direct involvement in the fighting in Yemen. The emphasis is on "collective deterrence," strengthening air defenses, and military-technical cooperation, rather than ground intervention.
This is consistent with Ankara's overall policy of supporting Saudi Arabia as a key regional partner but avoiding open confrontation with Iran and its proxies. It was not for nothing that Recep Tayyip Erdoğan made it clear in late September that Turkey was under no obligation to join the military action against the Houthis.
The point at issue is defense against missiles and drones launched against the Sunni monarchy. The Turks are unlikely to bomb Yemen in retaliation.
The US and Israel have stirred up the Middle East, and now the Houthis and Saudis are back in full-blown war, while Turkey and Iran are being dragged into it unwittingly, to the delight of Benjamin Netanyahu.
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Posted by badanov 2026-10-08 00:00||
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