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Could Saudi Arabia’s attempt to contain the Houthis now turn Yemen into a wider regional war?
The immediate danger is escalation. After the September Houthi advance along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, fighting has intensified sharply. On 2 October, Yemen’s internationally recognised government reported 20 airstrikes in Taiz, while Saudi Arabia and the Houthis exchanged further missile, drone and air attacks. This is the sharpest deterioration since the 2022 UN-brokered truce.
In September 2026, the Houthis captured Mocha, reached Perim Island and advanced towards Bab el-Mandeb. That transformed the conflict from a mainly territorial struggle into a direct contest over a major maritime chokepoint.
Riyadh now faces a difficult choice. Reuters reports preparations for a Saudi-backed offensive involving potentially more than 100,000 Yemeni fighters. One option is a limited operation to push the Houthis away from Bab el-Mandeb. The other is a wider campaign across Taiz, Marib, Al-Jawf and Al-Bayda, supported by Saudi air power.
The implications extend beyond Yemen. Control of Bab el-Mandeb affects Red Sea shipping, while simultaneous instability around the Strait of Hormuz concentrates strategic risk around two gateways linking Gulf energy supplies with global markets.
The conflict is also acquiring a broader security dimension. The US is providing intelligence and advisory support to Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan have established the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, while Pakistan has stated its commitment to Saudi defence. At the same time, Pakistan, Türkiye and Saudi Arabia are preparing talks on Iran's proposal for political engagement with the Houthis.
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