Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Mikhail Kolovangin
[Regnum] The story of the detention of five young Britons near Fairford Air Force Base in England was interpreted in the most high-profile way possible from the very beginning: a plot to commit a terrorist attack, a thwarted strike on American military infrastructure (US Air Force aircraft are stationed there), and an almost inevitable "Iranian connection."
However, as details emerge, this theory is no longer so clear-cut. The main fact established so far is that no improvised explosive devices were found in the three suspicious vans, but a quantity of gasoline was found. All five detainees were released on bail without charges.
This doesn't prove there was no criminal intent. The investigation is ongoing, and British counterterrorism police are exploring several possibilities, including the suspects' unknowing involvement with a foreign state.
But there is a fundamental difference between the concepts of “a version is being verified” and “a conspiracy is proven.”
TOO LITTLE FOR A TERRORIST ATTACK
The alarm was initially raised by three white vans spotted late at night near a strategic facility.
Five men, aged between 23 and 25, were detained first on suspicion of violating explosives laws and then of plotting a terrorist attack. The area was cordoned off, residents of approximately 85 houses were evacuated, and bomb disposal teams and forensic experts were called in.
However, after a thorough inspection, the police officially announced that not a single improvised explosive device was found in the vehicles. Moreover, one of the suspects had called emergency services even before the local farmer's call.
Such a call, of course, is not proof of innocence, but in the picture that was painted immediately of a carefully prepared attack on a military base, this detail looks, at the very least, strange.
If the authorities already had compelling evidence of a planned attack, foreign control of the group, and a specific connection to Tehran, it would be logical to expect charges, the publication of at least basic information about the discovered devices, or more definitive formulations of the investigation.
Instead, the suspects were quickly released on bail, with no motive yet established and police continuing to investigate "several leads."
PRECIOUS FUEL
Against this backdrop, an alternative theory emerged: the men may have been stealing fuel—cheap, subsidized red diesel from farmland or other fuel—for resale.
This refers to a fuel with reduced excise duty, to which dyes and chemical markers are added in the UK. Its properties are similar to those of regular diesel, but the markings allow the tax authorities to quickly detect its misuse.
Red diesel is permitted to be used only in certain types of equipment and activities—for example, in agriculture and forestry, on the railroad, on some marine vessels, and for stationary generators and heating. Fueling regular road vehicles and vans with it is prohibited, as this is considered a violation of excise regulations.
There's also an important clarification: the police reported finding gasoline, not diesel. Therefore, it can't be said that the theft has already been established.
But the absence of a bomb, the presence of fuel containers, the quick release of those detained on bail, and the uncertainty of the motive leave the criminal-domestic explanation among the plausible ones—and certainly no less worthy of investigation than the politically convenient “Iranian connection.”
The economic backdrop certainly doesn't refute this theory. At the end of September 2025, the average price of diesel in the UK was 143.14 pence per litre. By September 28, 2026, it had reached an all-time high of 199.18 pence. This represents an increase of approximately 39% year-on-year.
Fuel prices rose especially sharply after the start of the American operation against Iran, which involved the Fairford airbase.
Since February 28, the price of diesel fuel has increased from 142.38 to 199.18 pence per liter—an increase of almost 40%. Converted at the official exchange rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the current price is approximately 223 rubles per liter, and filling a 55-liter tank costs approximately 12,300 rubles.
THE CULPRIT HAS ALREADY BEEN ANNOUNCED
President Donald Trump said he was surprised by the suspects' release and would not have released them on bail himself.
Asked about Iran, the US leader said the connection was "possible," adding that he knew the answer but preferred not to disclose the details.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio went further, saying that the incident "clearly shows the hand of a foreign actor."
The politicians did not provide any public evidence.
The British investigation is noticeably more cautious. Law enforcement officials have not established a motive, have not confirmed Iran's involvement, and are considering various scenarios.
Tehran itself denied the accusations. It's a familiar situation: a political verdict from Washington came before investigators on the ground had determined exactly what happened.
UNPLEASANT CONCLUSIONS
The situation is made particularly awkward by Fairford's status as the main base for American bombers in Europe.
Since March, aircraft have been flying from here to carry out strikes on Iranian military and civilian infrastructure.
If three vans could really approach such a vital facility at night and cause a large-scale evacuation, questions should be asked not only about the "external enemy" but also about the security arrangements in the United Kingdom.
Moreover, in June 2025, pro-Palestinian activists infiltrated the major British airbase at Brize Norton on electric scooters. They reached aircraft and sprayed red paint into the engines of two of them. Following this, the Ministry of Defence ordered a security review of all military bases in the country.
A year has passed, and British authorities are once again attributing the emergency near a key military facility to a possible foreign threat. But for now, the facts are limited to three vans, gasoline, missing explosive devices, five local citizens released on bail, and a theory about a foreign connection, which is still being investigated.
The situation surrounding Fairford is truly strange. Equally strange is the speed with which Washington has assigned an external culprit in the absence of public evidence, while the more prosaic theory of the theft of expensive fuel remains unconfirmed.
It seems that searching for an external enemy has once again proven easier than calmly awaiting the results of the investigation and talking about one's own failures in ensuring security.
Unexpected release
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
Text taken from the Telegram channel of directorate4
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics.
[ColonelCassad] An unexpected release. Five people detained near RAF Fairford have been released from custody. All were British nationals between the ages of 23 and 25, permanent residents of London. However, the charges against the men have not been dropped: they have been released on bail and under strict supervision.
The investigation is ongoing. The release of people suspected of such serious charges has raised legitimate questions. Perhaps the entire incident was blown out of proportion and misinterpreted. But there is a more radical theory: the detainees may have been British agents tasked with carrying out a false flag operation, but their failure was due to their own incompetence and the vigilance of a woman who reported suspicious vans to police. This theory is even more compelling given evidence that the Americans knew about the impending attack and were monitoring the suspects. https://t.me/directorate4/27406 - zinc
This turn of events, of course, won't stop Russia from continuing to be accused of orchestrating the attempted attack on the bomber base. The provocation in Leipzig was likely organized according to a similar scenario, but they didn't get caught as clearly there as in Britain.
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