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2023-09-26 Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
When does Putin attack NATO? Americans need escalation
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Posted by badanov 2023-09-26 00:00|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [11130 views ]  Top

#1 When does Putin attack NATO? Americans need escalation

...One could reasonably suggest that it's because he's crazy but not stupid. IMHO, he knows his own limitations better than we think he does, and as long as he just goes medieval on Ukraine the rest of the world will tut-tut about it, but no Alliance rounds will fall on the soil of the Rodina.

Now, if we get a Black Swan - an idiot pilot who decides to shoot down a recon plane in international airspace, or a sudden collapse of the Russian lines, especially in the Crimea - all bets may be off.

Mike
Posted by MikeKozlowski 2023-09-26 08:10||   2023-09-26 08:10|| Front Page Top

#2 I thought Russians ARE fighting NATO - the Russian way, on their own land. And beating the $hit out of it.
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2023-09-26 10:11||   2023-09-26 10:11|| Front Page Top

#3 ^^German weapons sent to Ukraine non-functional – FM
Cracks in NATO unity?
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2023-09-26 10:22||   2023-09-26 10:22|| Front Page Top

#4 
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2023-09-26 10:48||   2023-09-26 10:48|| Front Page Top

#5 
Posted by Grom the Reflective 2023-09-26 10:57||   2023-09-26 10:57|| Front Page Top

#6 This debt will be handled clandestinely, I would believe. As the West telegraphed their hope, it was all but obvious their intentions to passively aggressively escalate things until russian retaliation so the west could intervene/attack with voter approval.
Posted by mossomo 2023-09-26 15:07||   2023-09-26 15:07|| Front Page Top

#7 A year or more of Putin threatening to nuke NATO countries has so far fallen on deaf ears. Perhaps he needs to actually make it happen in order to get their attention.
Posted by jpal 2023-09-26 16:00||   2023-09-26 16:00|| Front Page Top

#8 I thought Russians ARE fighting NATO - the Russian way, on their own land. And beating the $hit out of it.

Put down the crack pipe dude. If NATO, especially the US decided to throw down the Russian military would be completely broken in a month. That would mean nukes as that would be the last line of defense Russia had, so NATO keeps sending weapons (that work well against crap Soviet equipment btw) to Ukraine and let them bleed the bear out.
Posted by DarthVader 2023-09-26 16:53||   2023-09-26 16:53|| Front Page Top

#9 Put down the crack pipe dude. If NATO, especially the US decided to throw down the Russian military would be completely broken in a month. That would mean nukes as that would be the last line of defense Russia had, so NATO keeps sending weapons (that work well against crap Soviet equipment btw) to Ukraine and let them bleed the bear out

Expensive advanced weaponry look good and work well, but they will not defeat the Russians. Bleeding them dry won't work, coz they are up against a wall, in their estimation. When every tank is destroyed and every rifle is confiscated, they will keep coming.

If you want to really defeat the Russians you must fight them the way they want to fight you, the way they are fighting the Ukrainians and their Nazi curators: in a close quarters knife fight -- in an environment of spinning knives, as I call it.

I doubt our vaunted military could sustain these same levels of casualties and, at the same time, sustain support for the war from the electorate, stuffing ballot boxes notwithstanding.

Can't spin a war with Russia as a positive when all you had to do was to sit down with the Russians and talk it out.

If you really want to defeat the Russians, best sit down at the negotiating table and give them the modest things they have always wanted.

BTW: they will win the peace. They always have.

Posted by badanov 2023-09-26 17:31||   2023-09-26 17:31|| Front Page Top

#10 Which is why the analysts counting victory in square kilometers have it wrong. It's measured in dead Russians, and there will have to be lots more before they can decide to end the war by leaving Ukraine. Give the Ukes the tools to do it and we won't be worrying about Russia for a generation.
Posted by Nero 2023-09-26 18:38||   2023-09-26 18:38|| Front Page Top

#11 I don't think Putin can back down from the "Special Military Operation" at this point without sustaining a lead lobotomy
Posted by Frank G 2023-09-26 18:40||   2023-09-26 18:40|| Front Page Top

#12 When every tank is destroyed and every rifle is confiscated, they will keep coming.

Not exactly true. When faced with invasion, yes they will bleed the country white. But, outside their borders they need to lose around 500k to finally throw in the towel and lose the war. And no, they haven't always won the peace. They have been forced into humiliating treaties after a beating. But, they will come at you again in 10-15 years after they rebuild.

Also the Russians never wanted to talk it out. They never do. They will say one thing and get you focused on that while they kick in your front door. Also kinda their playbook. Shit just look at the 2000s and their behavior. Putie-pie played rope-a-dope with 3 of our presidents and did it well. Now he overplayed his hand.
Posted by DarthVader 2023-09-26 19:07||   2023-09-26 19:07|| Front Page Top

#13 But, they will come at you again in 10-15 years after they rebuild.

Treaties typically last only about ten years; that's a lesson the Russians seem yo have forgotten.
Posted by badanov 2023-09-26 19:17||   2023-09-26 19:17|| Front Page Top

#14 I don't think Putin can back down from the "Special Military Operation" at this point without sustaining a lead lobotomy

Putin cannot back down because this is an existential matter for the Russians. And I doubt that he wants to, despite what we read in the Daily Mail. If NATO were to jump in tomorrow, the Russians are in a better defensive position now than they were before the fighting started. Geography matters.

If you are looking to defend Russia against an invasion from the West, there are two good places to do it in Ukraine - either the narrow part in the west by the Polish border or along the Dnipro river. Everywhere else, the terrain is essentially flat and open, perfect for one of those huge set-piece combined arms battles NATO always planned for. So who's up for a Thunder Run to Moscow? Remember the Russians have historical data on this exact scenario from back when Volgograd was Stalingrad. That makes them twitchy about hostile forces in Ukraine.

(victory) is measured in dead Russians

Back when the SMO started, somebody accurately snarked that this was a Big Soviet Army fighting a Smaller Soviet Army.
(spoiler alert: Big Army wins)
You can look at war as a resource management game. You have some amount of troops, territory, and time. You can trade one for another, but if you run out of any of them, you are boned. Russia has 3 times the population and 10 times the GDP. We can give Ukraine stuff but eventually they will run out of people. Does NATO jump in at that point? If so, we're right back to the topic of defending against hostile forces coming from the west.
Posted by SteveS 2023-09-26 20:50||   2023-09-26 20:50|| Front Page Top

#15 Empty threats from a barbarous dying people. Sooner they go back home the sooner they can have the civil war to sort themselves out. Stay in Ukraine and the young and middle generation will be killed off, leaving the Russian core vulnerable to be overwhelmed by the oppressed ethnic periphery as well a certain rising power.

The west is finished with Russians for at least a generation. They will be as welcome as the defunct Soviet Union and left to rot as the west moves on.
Posted by Enver Slager8035  2023-09-26 21:00||   2023-09-26 21:00|| Front Page Top

#16 If NATO were to jump in tomorrow, the Russians are in a better defensive position now than they were before the fighting started. Geography matters.

NATO is now united and surrounds St Petersburg on both sides as well as doubling the front line. That is without Ukraine. Genius! In addition, in any conflict now NATO frontlines, instead of in Poland, will be less than 600km from Moscow through very tank and CAS friendly terrain. Putin Level Genius!!
Posted by Enver Slager8035  2023-09-26 21:09||   2023-09-26 21:09|| Front Page Top

23:42 Elmique Pheresh4813
23:14 Skidmark
23:12 Elmique Pheresh4813
23:06 Elmique Pheresh4813
22:53 Silentbrick
21:53 Enver Slager8035
21:41 Elmique Pheresh4813
21:41 Enver Slager8035
21:38 Enver Slager8035
21:31 Enver Slager8035
21:09 Enver Slager8035
21:00 SteveS
21:00 Enver Slager8035
20:54 trailing wife
20:50 SteveS
20:50 NN2N1
20:49 trailing wife
20:44 Enver Slager8035
19:20 Elmique Pheresh4813
19:17 badanov
19:07 DarthVader
18:40 Frank G
18:38 Nero
18:23 Frank G
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