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2019-06-16 Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Some things gorb noticed about the tankers that Iran attacked
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Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 01:45|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [11129 views ]  Top
 File under: Govt of Iran 

#1 The lack of pictures of or reporting of cargo loss (oil slick) is interesting.

Happy Father's Day all.
Posted by Woodrow 2019-06-16 06:34||   2019-06-16 06:34|| Front Page Top

#2 My recollection of oil tanks is they have double hulls and the tanks are segmented. My guess is one mine may puncture 1 tank and the oil is caught in the annular space.
Posted by BrerRabbit 2019-06-16 07:05||   2019-06-16 07:05|| Front Page Top

#3 Quo vadis?

Always ask: who benefits? And there's your answer.
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 07:29||   2019-06-16 07:29|| Front Page Top

#4 Of course. Our resident troll pipes in
Posted by Frank G 2019-06-16 07:52||   2019-06-16 07:52|| Front Page Top

#5 Iran, or the IRGC benefit. They're putting pressure on Asian countries through the oil supplies (and European countries indirectly) to reign in Trump's reimposition of sanctions.
Posted by Rob Crawford 2019-06-16 07:55||   2019-06-16 07:55|| Front Page Top

#6 It couldn't be the fact that Bolton and the rest of the deep state are itching for a war with Iran, and a false flag attack is precisely the causus belli they need?

I mean, why else did your mind jump directly to "it was a false flag" and accuse me of being a troll, instead of giving an answer? Come on, I just asked who benefited.

Remember the Maine!
Posted by  Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 08:04||   2019-06-16 08:04|| Front Page Top

#7 Cui bono, Herb, not "Where are you goig?"
Posted by Snaith Cluth4090 2019-06-16 08:05||   2019-06-16 08:05|| Front Page Top

#8 Quo vadis is a Latin phrase meaning "Where are you marching?" idiot. You meant Cuo bono, but your Gulf of Tonkin obviously got in the way. Posting from a foreign country sometimes shows your cultural ineptitude
Posted by Frank G 2019-06-16 08:08||   2019-06-16 08:08|| Front Page Top

#9 Like this, right Herbie?

A cart with a couple of bodies.
The vigilant watchman: "Quo vadis?"
"Oh, just down the via
To frame up some Shia."
"Cui bono?" "I guess that's the Soddies."
Posted by Betty Gleper6852 2019-06-16 08:18||   2019-06-16 08:18|| Front Page Top

#10 A misremembered bit of Latin in no way invalidates the point I made. Romanes eunt domus..."People called Romanes, they go, the house?"

When you argue, you have to use evidence tailored to the argument. Cite sources. Remind us of precedents and historical patterns of behavior.

Right now, you're at the bottom of the pyramid of debate. Go higher.

Posted by  Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 08:38||   2019-06-16 08:38|| Front Page Top

#11 Ad numerum
ad nauseum
Posted by Skidmark 2019-06-16 08:53||   2019-06-16 08:53|| Front Page Top

#12 It’s a marker, poor dear. He has made the same mistake before.

Here is a refutation of his central point: Herb, you seem to be a bit deficient in awareness of the history of this particular part of the world. Fortunately, Strategy Page was thinking of you when they posted the following pieces, which I assign as homework before you next comment (don’t worry, they are quick reads with no Latin required), with lessons applicable far beyond this particular battlefield. Bottom line, President Trump is already winning on all fronts in this thing, with no need to start a shooting war. The only one who might benefit in any way is Iran, should they succeed in closing the Gulf and/or uniting their deeply unhappy subjects.

Iran: The Land Of Opportunity

Logistics: Hezbollah Took The Hit
Posted by trailing wife 2019-06-16 09:11||   2019-06-16 09:11|| Front Page Top

#13 Presuming that all those false-flag stories are true--the US did them--then it follows that the US can do a false flag and then attack, the honesty of the thing notwithstanding.
So a false-flag is as good as IRGC doing it as a casus bellum. So there's no diff, right?
Either which way, there's identical pressure on Iran.
Posted by Richard Aubrey 2019-06-16 09:15||   2019-06-16 09:15|| Front Page Top

#14 The first one is about Hezbollah financing. The second is an opinion piece. I like Jim Dunnigan's wargames from when he was at SPI but I quit reading his site a number of years ago because he rambles, gets fixed ideas about things, and generally has verbal diarrhea. From it:

"Some government hardliners still back starting a war if all else fails but most Iranian leaders fear that anything that bold will more likely backfire on Iran."

"Iran threatens to shut down all oil exports from the Persian Gulf if all Iranian oil exports are blocked. That is considered unlikely because it would be a declaration of war by Iran, and even the elderly clerics who have ruled Iran since the 1980s have made it clear they understand their military is more mirage than real. It is also obvious to all Iranians that war would destroy Iranian oil production and export facilities and much else. It would take years to repair that damage and there is no good outcome for Iran if there is war in the Persian Gulf."

On the other hand, destroying Iran would be a great outcome for the warmongering neocons, Bolton, and Israel. Cui bono?

This opinion piece is at the 4th level, "Contradiction".

Why is everyone thinking it's a false flag? Why is this the first thought on everyone's mind, no matter which side you're on? Come on, it's dominating discussion everywhere. I'm not the only one pointing it out. Just when the neocons are itching for another war, bam, precisely the excuse they need falls right into their laps. It's too perfect.

Remember the Maine!
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 10:46||   2019-06-16 10:46|| Front Page Top

#15 we tend too get verbal diarrhea here too
Posted by chris 2019-06-16 11:52||   2019-06-16 11:52|| Front Page Top

#16 Waiting for them to hit a cruise ship from Israel.
Posted by Skidmark 2019-06-16 12:23||   2019-06-16 12:23|| Front Page Top

#17 Thanks Gorb. Don't forget that the US drone responding to the tanker SOS was fired on by the Iranians. Their mines malfunctioned, several did not explode. This tanker was supposed to be a huge inferno.

The Iranian attack on our drone was to allow them to move in, in darkness to remove the duds which would implicate Iran if gotten to by anyone else. They did not expect to be filmed removing their faiĺed explosives.

It may be a while before they pull this stunt again as they will need to resolve the malfunctions. If those mines had worked, the crew would have been in a huge, terrifying inferno by Iranian design.
Posted by Angairong Flavigum3253 2019-06-16 12:27||   2019-06-16 12:27|| Front Page Top

#18 None of them can write — but they collect information usefully. Interestingly, Rantburg is one of Strategy Page’s raw information feeds.

As for “everyone” thinking the attacks on shipping in the Persian Gulf is a false flag operation, you ought to have noticed that the very few who do are aping Iranian propaganda, and it’s gaining no traction whatsoever. But at least you are doing better than the Mullahs, who seem to think that Pearl Harbour was the false flag attack that will crystallize American opinion. See An Nahar: Iran Hints U.S. Could be behind 'Suspicious' Tanker Attacks.

They may be right about Pearl Harbour having that effect on American thinking, but if so it won’t be the one they’re aiming for.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-06-16 12:44||   2019-06-16 12:44|| Front Page Top

#19 "everyone" = Herb and his imaginary Anti-Neocons
Posted by Frank G 2019-06-16 13:00||   2019-06-16 13:00|| Front Page Top

#20 The US is building a coalition. This was a major failure by Iran. The lifting of crippling sabctions is now a no way. Should Iran get stupid again, while the coalition is devestating Iraniab targets, Israel should work over Hesbollah, abd the Saudis should obliterate the Houthis. Iran and all of their allies go down. All nuke facilities will be destroyed the Iranian nuke program regional threat will be set back 40 years.
Posted by Angairong Flavigum3253 2019-06-16 13:07||   2019-06-16 13:07|| Front Page Top

#21 This was a major failure by Iran.

And up in Afghanistan the Taliban’s summer of explosive death and conquest isn’t going well, either. It makes one think...
Posted by trailing wife 2019-06-16 13:43||   2019-06-16 13:43|| Front Page Top

#22 "you ought to have noticed that the very few who do are aping Iranian propaganda, and it’s gaining no traction whatsoever"

What, you mean like Germany and most of Europe? There's an article in the queue about it, let's see if it gets censored or not.

Frank G, unless you move up the pyramid of debate, I'm going to stop arguing with you.
Posted by  Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 14:07||   2019-06-16 14:07|| Front Page Top

#23 TW. With this Commander in Chief our enemier are out of our league!!

After our drone was fired on (they missed) it dropped below radar and was watching over thier shoulder as they grabing the duds.
Posted by Angairong Flavigum3253 2019-06-16 14:11||   2019-06-16 14:11|| Front Page Top

#24 Herb, cool pyramid. Kinda puts things in perspective.

I don't think anyone at RB, yourself and myself included, has managed to get above the contradiction rung.

Perhaps some have edged toward counterargument, but only with arguments that have applied to distant cases, but not this specific case. It's only sowing doubt leading to inaction, and I think most people here understand that.

Until we get more evidence supporting one side or the other, this will not be settled. I think we can just throw things into the mix and hope something comes along to crystallize things.

In the meantime, I'm going to have to rely on my judgment based on Iran's past behavior vs. its recent behavior, their behavior during and after negotiating agreements, their lies, their rhetoric, the trajectory of their behavior, and their leadership's ideological fervor.

I also understand that the US has taken advantage of false flag operations plenty of times, or at least taking full advantage of situations that might not be false flags but were overreacted to. I know someone who was there for the Gulf of Tonkin incident. Yes it was peashooters vs. cannons, but the intent was there.

Whatever the specifics, it's time to mow the grass over there. And to keep mowing it until they grow a brain.
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 14:39||   2019-06-16 14:39|| Front Page Top

#25 So even if it's fake, we need to start a war with Iran? How about no? Americans are not in favor AT ALL of starting yet another war.

It does not make any sense that Iran would attack a Japanese oil carrier the same day that the Japanese PM was in Tehran to try and negotiate a peaceful resolution to their stand-off with Saudi/the US. The only motive someone would have to carry out this attack would be to scuttle talks.

If Iran could recover the bomb and prove the US/Israel/Saudi Arabia was involved in a frameup, then we just attacked Norway and Japan.

Think about how insane all of this is. A Norwegian and A Japanese oil tanker were supposedly “attacked.” Yet neither the governments of Norway nor of Japan are calling for war or attacks.

An attack on Japanese oil tankers by Iran at this exact moment especially makes no sense at all. It would make perfect sense for the Saudis/Mossad to try and disrupt these talks on the other hand.

Found the shipping log of one of the ships, the Kokuka Courageous: https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/371880000

It departed from a port in Saudi-Arabia on the 10th of June. Now if it is true there were bombs planted on the hull of the ships, what place would make it most convenient to do so?

Also from the video footage the US has released it seems the "limpet mine" was several meters above the waterline. That is a totally ridiculous and idiotic place to put a limpet, they're meant to be attached below the waterline, where they.. you know.. can't be seen easily and investigated. Absolutely something fishy about this whole thing.
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 14:48||   2019-06-16 14:48|| Front Page Top

#26 Just utterly delightful, Angairong Flavigum3253.

like Germany and most of Europe?

Prove it. I see nothing from you in the hopper, so you might as well post the link in a comment in this thread.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-06-16 14:54||   2019-06-16 14:54|| Front Page Top

#27 So even if it's fake, we need to start a war with Iran?

Yes.
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 15:04||   2019-06-16 15:04|| Front Page Top

#28 Hey, at least Ben Rhodes agrees with you, Herb

birds of a feather and all that
Posted by Frank G 2019-06-16 15:15||   2019-06-16 15:15|| Front Page Top

#29 So fuck democracy, amirite? Nobody wants this war but let's do it anyway even if we have to start it with a Gulf of Tonkin-style false flag. Jesus, do you people realize you're the villains?

"Prove it. I see nothing from you in the hopper, so you might as well post the link in a comment in this thread."

Yeah, probably got erased by some other person with moderator access. I swear, this is just like Google or the others.

With deleting like this occurring, is it any wonder that skepticism isn't being considered? Articles like this are all over the fricken place.

GERMANY JOINS CHORUS CASTING DOUBT ON TRUMP ADMINISTRATION CLAIM THAT IRAN WAS BEHIND ATTACK ON OIL TANKERS
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 15:15||   2019-06-16 15:15|| Front Page Top

#30 That's the Guilt By Association fallacy, Frank G. Form: Person P accepts idea I. Therefore, I must be wrong.

Thanks for moving up the pyramid of debate, even if it is only one step from name-calling to attacking the characteristics of the writer instead of engaging with the substance of the argument. I appreciate that. Now keep moving, you've taken your first step into a larger world.
Posted by Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 15:22||   2019-06-16 15:22|| Front Page Top

#31 Herb, you're nearing the bottom of your own pyramid.

And I counter your link with one that is actually in the region.

Saudi crown prince accuses rival Iran of tanker attacks
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 15:25||   2019-06-16 15:25|| Front Page Top

#32  Splash shipping industry reporting.

The Splash article suggests something other than Limpets or torpedoes since damage is above the waterline of the Front Altair. The crew said "flying objects" hit them. the article also indicates no hostages were taken by Iran.

Cui bono from such an incident? Iran? DS FF?
Posted by JohnQC 2019-06-16 15:45||   2019-06-16 15:45|| Front Page Top

#33 There's no requirement that limpet mines be placed below the waterline.
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 15:59||   2019-06-16 15:59|| Front Page Top

#34 Limpets typically have countermeasures against removal unless you know how...because they're yours
Posted by Frank G 2019-06-16 16:02||   2019-06-16 16:02|| Front Page Top

#35 How do you sink a ship by holing it above the waterline?

If French intelligence had placed the limpet mines on the Greenpeace ship Rainbow Warrior above the waterline, would she have sunk?
Posted by  Herb McCoy 2019-06-16 16:26||   2019-06-16 16:26|| Front Page Top

#36 So what we need to do is find that little boat . . . .
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 16:36||   2019-06-16 16:36|| Front Page Top

#37 From Herb’s Newsweek article, the opening sentence:

Germany's Foreign Minister Heiko Maas on Friday cast doubt on evidence that the U.S. government claims is proof that Iran was behind an attack this week on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman.

Deutsche Welle, the German government’s version of Voice of America, does not take the same position as FM Maas. And our own European Conservative has pointed out that FM Maas’s enthusiasm for Iran does not match the turning away that has happened on the ground in Germany.

But really, if we are so evil, why do you hang out here in all your various moods, and why do you happily agree with us on so much else that two of your submissions were published today because I thought them important enough to move up from tomorrow?

As for deleting the article from the hopper, I’m afraid after seeing it I would have done the same. The fact that some people think the things we would have predicted they thought is not news, especially when the source is Newsweek, which was discarded by the International Business Times last year. Once upon a time they were a respectable news magazine, like Time and a number of others, but that was several owners ago.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-06-16 16:53||   2019-06-16 16:53|| Front Page Top

#38 How do you sink a ship by holing it above the waterline?

As I indicated in the article, I don't believe it was ever their intent to sink it.

I believe it was just to send a message and avoid an overt act of war.
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 18:03||   2019-06-16 18:03|| Front Page Top

#39 As I indicated in the article, I don't believe it was ever their intent to sink it.

Richard Fernandez (aka wretchard) has similar thoughts:
The attack on tankers in the Gulf of Oman according to the Jerusalem Post was a scripted outcome that fell apart. It was designed to make Iran's armed forces the heroic rescuers happening upon an anonymous tragedy, but IRGC flubbed its lines.

There's some reason to think the Iranians were trying to goad the Trump admin into an escalation in the Middle East in the belief that would unleash an outbreak of anti-Americanism in the region and damage him politically. But the fish weren't biting that day.
 LINK

In a similar vein, someone asked why the Iranians would attack a Japanese freighter when Abe was there. This assumes Abe was there to make nice and not deliver a message like "Oil is important to our nation. We would be *very* upset if you f**ked it up".
Posted by SteveS 2019-06-16 18:39||   2019-06-16 18:39|| Front Page Top

#40 Wow!
That looks like the food pyramid.
Posted by Skidmark 2019-06-16 19:07||   2019-06-16 19:07|| Front Page Top

#41 It's better if the articles get done the next day, they get more time to get read and discussed.

If you don't want Newsweek, there are tons of other sources. Pick one, the story about the Germans not falling for it is everywhere.

I've been reading Rantburg in one form or another since Little Green Footballs used to link to it. It's only recently that I noticed the horrifying switch to continuing eternal war and starting new ones. I was particularly disturbed by the celebration of the slaughter of innocents. What can I say, I still think of Americans as the good guys, not the murderous villains from 1984.
Posted by Herb McCoy  2019-06-16 19:18||   2019-06-16 19:18|| Front Page Top

#42 Say it with me: "False Flaggot..."
Posted by M. Murcek 2019-06-16 19:20||   2019-06-16 19:20|| Front Page Top

#43 It's better if the articles get done the next day, they get more time to get read and discussed.

Normally, yes. But I wanted that thought about on a Sunday, when our lot generally have more time for deep ponderings. I have on occasion, saved an article from Monday to the following Sunday for exactly that reason.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-06-16 19:37||   2019-06-16 19:37|| Front Page Top

#44 It's only recently that I noticed the horrifying switch to continuing eternal war and starting new ones.

This thing with Iran I believe is the direct result of not taking them seriously since 1979. 0bumhole then gave them permission to develop the nuclear bomb. They've been a pain in the region for quite a while now, and it's not going to get better for us or our allies unless somebody puts an end to it. I don't believe it will stop itself. They do intend to "wipe Israel off the map and are willing to sacrifice a quarter of their population doing it," whatever that means. If they knocked off the rhetoric and lived relatively peacefully with our allies instead of needlessly stabbing them in the back, I'd be fine with them.

I was particularly disturbed by the celebration of the slaughter of innocents.

I'm not sure which innocents you are referring to. I personally don't want any innocent folks to die.
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 20:00||   2019-06-16 20:00|| Front Page Top

#45 I’m glad you submitted your thoughts for publication, gorb. You triggered several interesting conversations today.
Posted by trailing wife 2019-06-16 20:57||   2019-06-16 20:57|| Front Page Top

#46 "It's only recently that I noticed the horrifying switch to continuing eternal war and starting new ones." Herb

I've noticed the exact opposite. You need to read a bit more carefully.
Posted by rjschwarz 2019-06-16 21:02||   2019-06-16 21:02|| Front Page Top

#47 I’m glad you submitted your thoughts for publication, gorb. You triggered several interesting conversations today.

And it's good to have the Burg and the variety of ideas to bounce things like this off of. Hard to do this kind of thing at work nowadays. :-)
Posted by gorb 2019-06-16 22:11||   2019-06-16 22:11|| Front Page Top

#48 It isn't obvious that anybody wants a big shooting war right now. The US wants a show of force; I gather to deter some un-reported escalation. Last time I checked shows of force are risky, but aren't the same as wanting a war. If we wanted to generate a causus belli I figure we'd have used a US ship, or staged an attack on one of our warships. And we'd be moving faster.
Suppose we actually were as bloodthirsty as Herb seems to think. Hitting a Japanese ship while Abe is in town would be a very risky way of scuttling the talks--all sorts of bad things would happen if Abe found out we did it. It's a crowded area; could you be sure nobody spotted you?
Benefit low, risk high. Do we have people stupid enough to do it anyway? I think so--some of you would know for sure--but I'm pretty sure that Iran has at least as many.
Qui bono is a good question, but I don't know enough about internal Iranian politics to be able to guess at the answer.
Posted by james  2019-06-16 22:44|| https://idontknowbut.blogspot.com  2019-06-16 22:44|| Front Page Top

#49 I don't think this is going to end pretty. Trump is not reacting, he is planning. When he hits the button and says 'go', it's going to be one hell of a mess over there.
Posted by Beau 2019-06-16 23:20||   2019-06-16 23:20|| Front Page Top

23:46 trailing wife
23:20 Beau
22:44 james
22:37 Texhooey
22:20 Vernal Hatrick
22:11 gorb
21:05 rjschwarz
21:03 rjschwarz
21:02 rjschwarz
20:57 Rambler in Virginia
20:57 trailing wife
20:17 gorb
20:00 gorb
19:41 trailing wife
19:37 trailing wife
19:26 trailing wife
19:20 M. Murcek
19:18 Herb McCoy
19:10 Skidmark
19:07 Skidmark
18:49 trailing wife
18:39 SteveS
18:12 chris
18:12 Woodrow
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