Article

2004-05-07 Iraq-Jordan

Second Best is No Solution for Iraq (Opinion)

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Posted by .com 2004-05-07 4:03:14 AM|| E-Mail|| Front Page|| [11132 views since 2007-05-07] Top

#1 Amen, PD.

Posted by 11A5S 2004-05-07 8:49:28 AM|| 2004-05-07 8:49:28 AM|| Front Page Top

#2 Leveling Falluja would be the BEST option militarily and the WORST one politcally. When Bremmmer took one of Saddam's ex-Generals and made him a warlord, we suddenly have a golden arrow in our quiver. We can use this Brigade to perform 'passification' and puts an Iraqis face on it. The problem in Iraq us not a square-peg/hole problem and will require a different way of looking at problems. Level Falluha? Sure give the Brigade the Arty and turn THEM loose.

Posted by Cyber Sarge 2004-05-07 9:25:18 AM|| 2004-05-07 9:25:18 AM|| Front Page Top

#3 One thing the article did get right - we are expecting too much too soon. Even the Germans, most like us, after WW2 didnt get free election, a national currency or anything like that for several years after the war. Japan was similar - McArthur rule dwith an iron hand, but used the locals to his advantage, unlike what we have done.

As for the stuff in Fallujah, I think it is over until the US patrols along side the Brigade. Thats the moment of choice: either they let the patrols alone, or all hell breaks loose, because the Fallujah Brigade will tear stuff up in a big way - they will not be as disciplined with their fire as the Marines. My bet it the foreigners inside Fallujah will try to fight, and even the locals will turn against them, coming to fight beside their cousins and brothers in the brigade. The history of this region and the tribal sheiks that run it point to just such a scenario.

Why did we create that brigade?

The reasons for the ex-Saddamist General and the Brigade (more like a battaliton) in Fallujah are 3 fold:

1) It gives the locals "one of their own" so there is less ability of the foreign fighters to rouse the rabble with "Fight the Infidel" talk.

2) It reverses the abandonment of many trained soldiers in that region. This reduces the pool of troublemakers available for forming a "Mahdi Army" type of activity. And these are the guys you want fighting the former Feydaheen Saddam (who are responsible for almost 100% of the non-foreigner based attacks in the SUnni areas). They want some payback, and these are their own neighborhoods they are defending. As long as we guide their responses and point them at the right targets, they will bring peace to their area.

3) It points a dagger at the heart of Sistani and the Shia who are supporting the foreign fighters who are behind 90% of all the crap going on outside the SUnni triangle. We are basically telling them: If you dont step up and start dealing with people like Sadr, we will give guns to the Sunnis and let them do it like they have the past 30 years.

If this is the gambit they are trying, Moqtada Al Sadr should be coming under more and more intense pressure over the next week, from his own people, and from the local populace. And the so-called Mahdi army will be regarded with increasing scorn as a band of thugs, while its numbers dwindle.

Its an interesting play. And a gutsy one for the US in Iraq.

Posted by OldSpook 2004-05-07 9:57:21 AM|| 2004-05-07 9:57:21 AM|| Front Page Top

#4 OS - my thoughts exactly, but better/clearly expressed. I just hope W and Rumsfeld are thinking along the same lines

Posted by Frank G 2004-05-07 10:27:51 AM|| 2004-05-07 10:27:51 AM|| Front Page Top

#5 another thought on Fallujah. Latif seems to say no foreigners left there, etc. This is generally seen as a problem - either Latif is in denial (for nefarious reasons, no doubt) or we let em escape the trap, and now we'll just meetem somewhere else to our regret.

But wait a minute. Was Fallujah a trap for the foreigners?? As opposed to anywhere else they go to?? Insurgents require local support to thrive - a "sea to swim in" Look at whats happening to Sadrs militants in Najaf and Karbala - away from the base in Sadr City, they get no real support from the locals, who look on cooly as the coalition forces kill Sadrists, and in at least a few cases pitch in themselves. Seems to me that Fallujah is the ONE city in Iraq MOST supportive of the foreign jihadis - its not only pro-Saddam, its also heavily wahabi. Anywhere else in the Sunni triangle they go, theyre gonna have fewer supporters, more coalition informants, etc. Aint no place for them to go. Maybe letting them out was DELIBERATE, a joint strategy of USMC and the locals. With surrounding friendly locals the jihadis are a threat - without them theyre much less so.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-05-07 12:29:34 PM|| 2004-05-07 12:29:34 PM|| Front Page Top

#6 BTW, kudos to Wretchard, who got mentioned in todays Washington Times.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-05-07 12:36:08 PM|| 2004-05-07 12:36:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#7 Nice analysis LH, rings true.

I would also speculate that the foreigners have many contact/friends/networks established in Falluja over years due to its position on the smuggling route to Baghdad, which is why we might not see the same problem in cities elsewhere in Iraq.

Posted by Carl in N.H 2004-05-07 12:38:41 PM|| 2004-05-07 12:38:41 PM|| Front Page Top

#8 Wretchards column today was a great read. That guy has a book in him. His telling about that polite mayor and how he welcomed his old adversary to bury the hatchet, let bygones be bygones, toothy smiles, batted eyelashes, tasty treats. Killer.

Could you imagine if a guy like Mel Gibson could get the funding to establish a movie production company with real clout. And that company could use the type of thought you find filtering through Rantburg and others. That would have a big impact on the world. I'd buy shares in such a company.

Posted by Lucky 2004-05-07 1:15:11 PM|| 2004-05-07 1:15:11 PM|| Front Page Top

#9 There are rumors that Disney shareholder groups are courting Gibson to take over for Eisner... there ya go!

Posted by .com 2004-05-07 1:18:26 PM|| 2004-05-07 1:18:26 PM|| Front Page Top

#10 Oh and also too. I'd vote for Old Spook to sit on the board of directors and PD could head marketing.

Posted by Lucky 2004-05-07 1:18:59 PM|| 2004-05-07 1:18:59 PM|| Front Page Top

#11 Lucky - Lol! Hey, bro, I'm a programmer - there's nobody here less qualified to do marketing! Took me 20 yrs to learn that steaks need sizzle to sell! OS on the Board (and CIO, too?) makes great sense, however!

Posted by .com 2004-05-07 1:25:12 PM|| 2004-05-07 1:25:12 PM|| Front Page Top

#12 There are rumors that Disney shareholder groups are courting Gibson to take over for Eisner

Oops - I don't think they will have any more church wedding ceremonies like in the "Father of the Bride", without the mention of God.

Posted by BigEd 2004-05-07 1:44:46 PM|| 2004-05-07 1:44:46 PM|| Front Page Top

#13 Well you could throw a few pies every now and then. Could you imagine a Disney Corp being Disney again. They used to make wonderful historicly based programing. Remember Moonrakers.

Posted by Lucky 2004-05-07 1:44:49 PM|| 2004-05-07 1:44:49 PM|| Front Page Top

#14 please dont get me started on Mel.

Posted by Liberalhawk 2004-05-07 1:55:08 PM|| 2004-05-07 1:55:08 PM|| Front Page Top

#15 OldSpook, you've echoed what I've been telling many folks for weeks. Improvisation is the most important part of any campaign or operation, and the handling of Fallujah has been very good. Iraqi political realities are a legitimate constraining factor, given the overall mission objective. The actions in Fallujah, and the south, reflect a savvy and patient grasp of the situation.

Posted by IceCold 2004-05-07 2:25:45 PM|| 2004-05-07 2:25:45 PM|| Front Page Top

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