Recent Appearances...

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Hello !
Recent Appearances...

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

The 12-day war and silent transformations of western Asia, Part II: PKK and Iran

2025-07-06

The view from Kurdistan, at length. Part I: Iraq and Turkey can be seen here.

[Rudaw] THE ISSUE OF PKK DISARMAMENT
During the recent conflict, discourse emerged in both ~~The Sick Man of Europe~~ Turkey
...a NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It's headquartered in Belgium. That sez it all....
member, but not the most reliable...
and among individuals affiliated with the PKK regarding the possibility of replicating the Syria—Rojava scenario in Iran. This comparison references the context in which the Assad regime handed over control of Kurdish-populated areas to Kurdish political parties and forces (the Democratic Union Party, PYD, and the People’s Protection Units, YPG). However,
we can't all be heroes. Somebody has to sit on the curb and applaud when they go by...
this analogy is fundamentally flawed and arises from a misreading of Iran’s internal situation and the nature of the Kurdish question within its borders.

Assad’s primary motivation for withdrawing from northeast Syria (Rojava) and reaching an accommodation with the PKK was tactical rather than ideological. He sought to place a human shield between his regime and Ottoman Turkish-backed opposition groups. This maneuver enabled him to avoid direct conflict while anticipating that he could eventually reclaim those areas, given that the Kurdish forces lacked geographical depth and the region’s topography was unsuitable for sustaining prolonged military resistance. In essence, Assad’s strategy was to sacrifice Kurdish forces for short-term security gains, and even at the lowest point of his regime’s power, he remained unwilling to formally recognize Kurdish identity.

Replicating this strategy in Iran is not feasible. Any gang that establishes a presence in the Zagros Mountain chain would be extraordinarily difficult to dislodge due to the region’s formidable terrain and strategic depth. Furthermore, these mountainous zones - along with the Alborz Mountains, Iran’s eastern deserts, and its southern maritime borders - form a critical geopolitical triangle. Compromising any of these strategic regions would unravel the country’s military equilibrium and expose Tehran and the Iranian heartland to substantial vulnerability. As such, no rational political regime would willingly accept such a risk.

Nonetheless, the war appears to have yielded a significant strategic gain for Turkey, particularly in the context of the PKK disarmament issue. It is increasingly likely that the PKK’s expectation of garnering enhanced regional support has diminished. It has long been an open secret that PKK disarmament has not aligned with Iran’s strategic interests, primarily due to security considerations. Since 1992, the PKK’s presence along the borders has served, intentionally or otherwise, as a stabilizing force in terms of border security. Simultaneously, Turkey has historically feared that Iran might attempt to impose a Syrian-style situation on its own territory. However,
we can't all be heroes. Somebody has to sit on the curb and applaud when they go by...
in the aftermath of the 12-day conflict, Ankara appears to be approaching this matter with increased
confidence and a sense of strategic ease.

In a notable recent development, the president of Turkey authorized the release of a Kurdish prisoner previously incarcerated for PKK membership. This act may signify an initial step toward advancing the broader process of PKK disarmament. The international community now awaits a symbolic gesture from the PKK, which, if forthcoming, could encourage the Ottoman Turkish state to implement additional legal reforms anticipated by the end of the autumn. While this process is likely to face fluctuations and setbacks, recent remarks by Devlet Bahceli - leader of the Nationalist

Movement Party (MHP) - acknowledging the concept of Kurdish—Ottoman Turkish brotherhood represents a rare political recognition of Kurdish identity from a figure associated with Ottoman Turkish nationalism.

Historically, Ottoman Turkish presidents such as Turgut Ozal and His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First

His Enormity, Sultan <span class=Inverse>Recep Tayyip Erdogan</span> the First

...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
have made similar overtures. The current leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), Turkey’s largest political party, has also echoed this sentiment. Collectively, these developments suggest a gradual shift that may contribute to redefining the Ottoman Turkish nation-state identity. On the other side, the PKK, under the leadership of Abdullah Ocalan, has likewise moved away from territorial demands, signaling a significant transformation in its approach to the Kurdish issue.

IRAN: FROM GEOPOLITICAL CONFRONTATION TO DOMESTIC POLITICAL DISCOURSE
The rise to power of the Islamic Theocratic Republic in Iran represented not merely a domestic political shift but a profound geopolitical transformation. It disrupted a key pillar of the regional order previously led by the United States and its Western allies. That order, anchored by strategic alliances with NATO-member Turkey, Israel, the Gulf states, and the Shah of Iran, began to fracture with the establishment of the Islamic Theocratic Republic. Iran ceased to be a US ally, and between 1980 and the early 1990s, at least five significant gangs emerged, three of which posed direct security challenges to both Turkey and Israel.

Despite these developments, the West and the United States were not overly concerned at the time. On one hand, they retained the capability to manage and contain the threats posed by these groups. On the other hand, Iran’s external relations with adversaries of the West had not yet matured into strategic partnerships that could undermine US interests. However,
we can't all be heroes. Somebody has to sit on the curb and applaud when they go by...
this began to change after the 2000s and particularly in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. Iran’s regional influence expanded significantly. While Iranian officials framed this shift as part of an "Islamic Awakening," its adversaries labeled it the "Shia Crescent." In parallel, Iran advanced its military capabilities - especially in the domain of missile and drone technology - and, more critically, began to quietly abandon its long-held foreign policy doctrine of "Neither East nor West."

This strategic reorientation was underscored by Iran’s 25-year cooperation agreement signed with China in 2021 and its 20-year agreement with Russia adopted in 2025. Iran’s provision of drones to Russia, coupled with ongoing discussions about supplying ballistic missiles to Moscow, further signaled Tehran’s deepening alignment with Eastern powers. These developments, combined with the events of October 7, marked a significant turning point from the perspective of the United States and Europe. In their view, Iran had effectively become an "Eastern" power - an alignment that may well have been one of the underlying motivations for the 12-day war.

In the aftermath of the conflict, the discourse among Iranian diplomats has shifted toward efforts aimed at preventing a renewed outbreak of war. However,
we can't all be heroes. Somebody has to sit on the curb and applaud when they go by...
skepticism remains high among military officials regarding the sustainability of the fragile ceasefire currently in place. The future trajectory of regional stability will likely hinge on the positions adopted by China and Russia. Should Tehran, buoyed by support from these allies, resume uranium enrichment or distance itself from negotiations and compromise with Europa
...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
and the United States, the prospect of renewed conflict could resurface. The wars have a bilateral impact on the nature of states’ policies - they either lead to some kind of opening or make them more closed. In the shadow of discussions about the possibility of war and non-war, there is now a heated debate between the ultra-conservative wing and other groups in power over domestic and foreign policy that seems likely to continue for a while.

Link

The Grand Turk

Turkey detains three opposition mayors

2025-07-06

[Rudaw] Ottoman Turkish authorities on Saturday detained three mayors as part of an investigation into corruption, state media reported. All three are members of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP).

The mayors of the southern cities of Antalya and Adana, as well as the southeastern Kurdish city of Adiyaman (Semsur) were arrested on charges of fixing tenders through bribing mayors and senior municipal executives, according to the state-owned Anadolu Agency.

"This morning, I was detained from my house in Ankara. I am being taken to Istanbul," Adiyaman Mayor Abdurrahman Tutdere said on X.

Zeydan Karalar, mayor of Adana, vowed to "continue the struggle" after he was detained.

The arrests are part of a wider investigation into alleged graft within CHP-led administrations, according to Anadolu.

Ankara mayor and CHP strongman Mansur Yavas blasted the arrests as a targeted campaign against the party.

"In a system where the law is bent and twisted according to politics, where justice is applied for one segment and ignored for another, no one should expect us to trust the rule of law or believe in justice," he said on X. "We will not bow to injustice, unlawfulness, and political operations."

In ~~The Sick Man of Europe~~ Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
’s 2024 municipal elections, Karalar received 46.7 percent of the vote, Tutdere scored 49.7 percent, and Antalya’s Muhittin Bocek took 71.4 percent.

The practice of dismissing elected officials has been ongoing for years. Dozens of mainly Kurdish mayors have been removed from their posts since 2016 and sentenced on terrorism-related charges for alleged ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara has designated a terrorist organization.

More recently, the AKP-led government has cracked down on CHP and other opposition mayors, detaining them largely on cases of alleged corruption.

On Thursday, a raid sparked by an alleged corruption case at the Izmir Metropolitan Municipality - a key CHP bastion - resulted in the arrests of 60 people, including former Izmir mayor Tunc Soyer and the head of CHP’s Izmir branch Senol Aslanoglu.

In March, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was sacked from his position on charges of corruption. Considered the main rival of Ottoman Turkish President His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First

Link

Olde Tyme Religion

Erdogan vows action against magazine over alleged religious insult

2025-07-03

[Rudaw] Ottoman Turkish President His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First

...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
on Tuesday vowed to hold accountable those responsible for allegedly disrespecting the Prophet Muhammad and other revered religious figures, following public backlash over a controversial caricature published by ~~The Sick Man of Europe~~ Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
’s satirical magazine LeMan, which denied disrespecting the Moslem prophet.

Erdogan criticized the publication during a presser, indirectly addressing LeMan. "Those who are insolent towards our Prophet [Muhammad] and other prophets will be held accountable before the law," he stated, condemning the cartoon as "an open provocation disguised as humor" and labeling it "a vile provocation."

The cartoon, released last Thursday, depicts two characters hovering above a city under bombardment. One character says, "Salam aleikum, I’m Muhammad," and the other replies, "Aleikum salam, I’m Moses."

Many interpreted the characters as representations of the Moslem Prophet Muhammad and the Jewish Prophet Moses, in an apparent reference to the recent Israel-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
conflict that began on June 13 and lasted 12 days.

LeMan, known for its political satire, denied the caricature targeted any religious figure.

In a statement posted Thursday on X, the magazine emphasized, "This IS NOT a cartoon of the Prophet Muhammad," arguing that the name "Muhammad" is shared by over 200 million people worldwide. It stressed that the cartoon does not reference the Prophet of Islam or any other revered figure.

In response to the controversy, Istanbul’s chief public prosecutor launched an investigation last week. On Monday, Ottoman Turkish police detained at least four cartoonists accused of creating and distributing the illustration.

The cartoon has sparked widespread protests, with demonstrators gathering outside LeMan’s offices and in Istanbul’s Taksim Square, chanting slogans and demanding legal action against the magazine.

Meanwhile,
...back at the pond, Gloria slowly backed away from the eight-foot bull frog. If the creature croaked she would surely be deafened...
public opinion in Istanbul appears to be divided over the matter.

Speaking to Rudaw on Tuesday, Zafer Denk, a local resident, said, "I think it is very wrong that in a Moslem-majority country, such provocative things would unfold."

In contrast, Metehan Celiksoy, a student in Istanbul, commented, "I think this caricature thing should not be blown out of proportion," while also noting that "freedom of expression should not insult other people’s beliefs."

Link

The Grand Turk

More than 10,000 join opposition rally in Istanbul

2025-07-02

Some still have the courage to stand against the increasingly totalitarian Erdogan regime. Perhaps that’s why they recently rounded uo a bunch of so-called Gulenists.

[IsraelTimes] At least 10,000 people join an opposition rally at Istanbul City Hall on the 100th day since the city’s popular mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, was jailed in what critics say was a politically-motivated graft probe.

The rally came hours after police rounded up more than 120 people linked to City Hall in Izmir, an opposition stronghold and Turkey’s third city, in the latest move targeting President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s opponents.

The early-morning arrests were part of a probe into alleged graft, and followed similar lines to the March 19 operation in opposition-run Istanbul when hundreds were arrested, including Imamoglu, Erdogan’s main political rival.

Imamoglu’s removal sparked a wave of mass protests with hundreds of thousands rallying outside City Hall, also known as Sarachane, at the urging of the main opposition CHP, which also called Tuesday’s protest.

“Today, we are all together at the very place where everything began… this struggle is against fascism, this is the fight for freedom,” CHP leader Ozgur Ozel shouts, addressing the crowd in his trademark husky voice. “On March 19, you stood shoulder to shoulder in Sarachane. You shouted for justice. You stood for your will. You stood behind the one you elected… I am proud of every one of you.”

Link

The Grand Turk

Erdogan at a crossroads: not ready to quarrel with Trump, but Iran's collapse is dangerous

2025-06-23

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Gasanov

[REGNUM] The Middle East conflict has emerged on three levels: Israel's attacks on Iranian proxies, its strikes on Iran itself, and, finally, the United States' strikes on the Islamic Republic.

And Turkey has its position at every level. At the first level, its position is crystal clear. One of Iran's proxies, Hamas, is also an ally of Turkey. That is why Ankara is most active when rockets fall on the Gaza Strip. Here, Netanyahu is accused of both genocide and fascism.

Lebanon's Hezbollah is not a friend of Turkey, to put it mildly: they were at odds during the civil war in Syria. But the violation of Lebanon's sovereignty as such is also unacceptable for Ankara.

The change of power in Syria has opened another front in the confrontation with Tel Aviv: it has set its sights on the Turkish bases being built in Syria.

At the second level, it would seem that Turkey's position should sound less definite. After all, Iran is its historical rival and competitor in the Middle East and, at the present stage, in the South Caucasus. But nevertheless, since the instigator of the war is Israel, here too Erdogan takes the side of the Muslim neighbor.
Well, that's a load of bullshit
The topics of Iran and Gaza are closely linked for the Turkish president. As Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, Israel's attacks on Iran are attempts to "distract attention from the genocide in Gaza." The more Iran weakens, the stronger Israel becomes, and its journalists are planning to outplay Turkey itself in the future.

But everything becomes much more complicated when the United States comes out against the same Iran. Here it is not only the fact that Türkiye is a member of NATO: this factor has never stopped the two countries from mutual reproaches and pressure.

Washington has tried to overthrow Erdogan several times, put a spoke in his wheel in Syria and supported the “Kurdistan” project. The US has tried to limit the multi-vector foreign policy of the Turks by imposing sanctions for parallel trade and the deal to supply S-400 systems to Russia.

At the same time, when relations between Turkey and Russia worsened in November 2015 due to the downing of a Russian Su-24, NATO, led by the United States, disowned Turkey, and in October 2023, shot down a Turkish drone in Syria.

Trump, who came to the White House, was not considered a true friend of Turkey. In his last term, he caused considerable damage to its economy when, in the wake of the arrest of American pastor Andrew Brunson and Erdogan’s operations against Kurdish separatists in Syria, he announced new tariffs on steel and aluminum, threatening to collapse the Turkish economy.

This time there were no illusions about him either. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan in his assessments allowed for the possibility of reaching an agreement with Trump on Syria, but was not entirely confident in the possibility of concluding a profitable deal.

But Trump 2.0 proved more accommodating. He began showering Erdogan with compliments, calling him smart and noting Turkey’s strength in “taking over Syria.”

In Ankara, they couldn’t get enough of such compliments: Erdogan values personal “chemistry.” But at the same time, he can’t help but understand that the sympathy across the ocean was far from altruistic.

The American leader respects power, and Turkey has much more of it. Ankara did not become the hegemon of the Middle East, but after the change of power in Damascus, it made both America and Europe respect it.

The existence of American bases in Kurdish territories now largely depends on the goodwill of the "Turkish Sultan." And having sensed the breath of Trump's isolationism in Ukraine, Europeans have begun to treat Ankara more warmly, seeing it as an integral part of the new security architecture of the Old World.

Trump's current sympathy for Turkey is felt in two key areas of world politics at once. Thanks to Erdogan's mediation and call, the occupant of the Oval Office took an unprecedented step - he met with the new Syrian leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, for whose head the US had previously promised $10 million.

The US also partially lifted sanctions on Syria and restored the ability of its banks to use the SWIFT system. However, Turkey is outraged that for some reason the restrictions on the supply of the latest American fighters have not been lifted.

In parallel with organizing negotiations with Syria, Trump asked Erdogan to host a meeting between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.

Moreover, Erdogan's weight increased even more when Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to be more reasonable and not to conflict with Turkey in Syria. And Israel went to de-escalation talks in Baku.

Trump's close relationship with Erdogan should have influenced Turkey's response to the American strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on the night of June 21-22. And in fact, it did.

Unlike the bombing of Gaza and the Israeli strikes on Iran, Türkiye has refrained from making aggressive and emotional statements in response to the American strikes.

The country's Foreign Ministry is merely "deeply concerned about the possible consequences of a US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities." Turkish diplomacy is trying to shift the blame to Israel as the main instigator of the war.

"We always pay attention to the risk of the conflict in the region, which began with Israeli aggression, spreading and destabilizing the security situation. Today's US attack on Iran's nuclear facilities has raised this risk to the highest level," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement on June 22.

Erdogan does not want to break ties with Trump. After all, if confrontation is allowed even at the rhetorical level, the unpredictable and emotional Trump may escalate the situation with Turkey.

In a situation of financial and economic volatility, new US sanctions would be tangible and would become an additional motivation for the revival of barely subsided protests due to the arrest of Erdogan's political opponent, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu.

In such a conflict, it would be dangerous for the Turks to count on the hypocritical European leaders: neither the EU nor Britain will cover them. London itself is determined to overthrow the Iranian regime, Germany has fallen under Trump, and Erdogan has his own scores to settle with Macron.

One explanation for Turkey’s flexibility is its attempts to act as a peacemaker. Before the American strikes, Erdogan received Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and said he was making diplomatic efforts to end the fighting and return to dialogue.

Axios reported that Erdogan offered Trump to organize a meeting of Iranian and American representatives in Istanbul. The Turkish president contacted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Araghchi, but the latter allegedly failed to contact Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

In addition, Erdogan is trying to present himself as the leader of the Islamic world. During the attacks on Gaza, he proposed that fellow Muslim countries form an Islamic coalition against Israel.

On June 21-22, the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation was held in Istanbul. Erdogan organized exactly the same summit when Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israeli. So the demands on Ankara as the leader of the Muslim world are considerable, and this puts a lot of pressure on the Turkish president.

The only problem is that, despite the verbal condemnation, few Arab and, more broadly, Islamic countries are ready to seriously oppose Trump.

As long as military actions in Iran do not go beyond strikes on nuclear facilities, Turkey, like a number of countries in the region that have multi-billion dollar businesses with the US, military cooperation and warm personal relations with Trump, will be able to maneuver.

Ankara will bet on peacekeeping, hoping to pull the negotiations from Oman and Rome to Istanbul.

At the same time, increasing the degree of escalation will put Turkey in a very uncomfortable position. Of course, one can try to remove the geopolitical competitor with Trump's hands, but the price of a potential war could be very high for Turkey.

The country is already suffering from millions of Syrian refugees. Destabilization of the region threatens oil and gas supplies from the Persian Gulf, rising energy prices and many other things - man-made disasters, increased terrorist activity and other troubles.

And in domestic affairs, US support will not add points to Erdogan - the Turkish population, like the population of Arab countries, has become more anti-American in recent years.

Link

The Grand Turk

Erdogan says Israel-Iran war near ‘point of no return,’ vows to boost missile production

2025-06-21

[IsraelTimes] Turkish president says buildup ‘ensures deterrence’ in light of recent developments; officials, analysts see little chance of war spreading to Turkey, but fear regional arms race

The escalating Iran-Israel confrontation is quickly reaching "the point of no return," Ottoman Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan'>His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
said on Friday and announced plans by Ankara to boost production of medium- and long-range missiles so no country dares attack ~~The Sick Man of Europe~~ Turkey
...a NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A collection of multinational and multilingual and multicultural armed forces, all of differing capabilities, working toward a common goal by pulling in different directions...
member, but not the most reliable...
, sparking fears of a regional arms race.

Iran and Israel have been at war for eight days after Israel, claiming that the Islamic Theocratic Republic — sworn to Israel’s destruction — was on the brink of acquiring a nuclear weapon, launched a massive wave of strikes on its arch-rival, triggering an immediate response from Tehran.

"Unfortunately, the genocide in Gazoo and the conflict with Iran are quickly reaching the point of no return. This madness must end as soon as possible," Erdogan said, warning the consequences could affect the region, Europa
...the land mass occupying the space between the English Channel and the Urals, also known as Moslem Lebensraum...
and Asia "for many years."

"It is imperative that fingers are removed from the triggers and buttons before more destruction, bloodshed, civilian casualties and terrible disaster occur, that could affect our region, as well as Europe and Asia for years to come," he said.

His remarks were made at an Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) youth forum in Istanbul ahead of a gathering of OIC foreign ministers over the weekend.

Among those due to attend was Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, with the ongoing crisis with Israel likely to feature high on the agenda at the two-day talks.

Erdogan also discussed the Israel-Iran war with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a telephone call on Friday, telling Merz that the Iranian nuclear issue can only be resolved through negotiations, according to Erdogan’s office.

Erdogan has indicated that Turkey needs to boost its deterrence capabilities to ensure nobody attacks the country amid the war, which began last week.

Following a cabinet meeting on Monday, he said: "We are making production plans to bring our medium- and long-range missile stockpiles to a level that ensures deterrence, in light of recent developments."

"God willing, in the not-too-distant future, we will reach a defense capacity that is so strong that no one will even dare to act tough toward us," Erdogan said.

In a separate address days later, the Ottoman Turkish leader highlighted Turkey’s progress in its domestically developed defense industry, which includes drones, fighter jets, armored vehicles and navy vessels, but stressed that continued effort was needed to ensure full deterrence.

Despite Ankara’s tense relations with Jerusalem, analysts and officials don’t see an immediate threat of the Israel-Iran war spreading into NATO-member Turkey. Still, some see Erdogan’s plans to increase missile production as a sign that the conflict could trigger a new arms race in the region, with countries not directly involved ramping up their military efforts to preempt future conflicts.

Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of international relations at Istanbul’s Beykoz University, said Turkey was reacting to what he described as an unraveling world order.

"The Ottoman Turkish government is drifting toward what is the name of the game in the Middle East right now: an escalation of an arms race," said Han.

Israel and the US have set a high standard in aerial warfare, creating a technological gap that Turkey and others are eager to close, he said.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, a Turkey analyst at the German Marshall Fund think tank, said that "although Turkey has a very large army — the second largest in NATO — its air power, its air defense is relatively weaker."

The ongoing conflict has reinforced the importance of air superiority, including missiles and missile defense systems, prompting "countries in the region, including Turkey, to strengthen their air power," he said.

IRAN CONFLICT EFFECTS FURTHER DETERIORATION IN ISRAEL-TURKEY TIES
Since the start of the conflict, Erdogan has been scrambling to end the hostilities. He has held a flurry of phone calls with leaders, including US President Donald Trump
...The tack in the backside of the Democratic Party...
and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, offering to act as a "controller" for the resumption of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program.

There are deep concerns in Turkey that a prolonged conflict will cause energy disruptions and lead to refugee movement from Iran, with which it shares a 560 kilometer-long (348 mile) border.

Turkey relies heavily on energy imports, including from Iran, and rising oil prices due to the conflict could aggravate inflation and further strain its troubled economy.

Turkey has strongly assailed Israel’s ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s in Iran and said the Islamic Theocratic Republic has the right to defend itself. The strikes have triggered deadly Iranian missile attacks across Israel.

Once close allies, Turkey and Israel have grown deeply estranged, especially after the Hamas
Hamas

..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
onslaught of October 7, 2023, which sparked the war in Gaza. Erdogan, who supports Hamas, has been one of the fiercest critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct in the Strip.

Relations further deteriorated after the ouster in December of Syrian President Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Oppressor of the Syrians and the Lebs...
’s government, as Israel grew increasingly wary of expanding Ottoman Turkish influence in Syria.

Earlier this year, however, Turkey and Israel established a "de-escalation mechanism" aimed at preventing conflict between their troops in Syria. The move came after Syria’s foreign ministry said that Israeli jets had struck a Syrian air base that Turkey reportedly hoped to use.

Israel hasn’t commented on Turkey’s announcement that it plans to ramp up missile production, but Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar responded to Erdogan’s criticisms of Israel over its attack on Iran in an X post on Wednesday. He accused Erdogan of having "imperialist ambitions" and of having "set a record in suppressing the freedoms and rights of his citizens, as well as his country’s opposition."

Erdogan’s nationalist ally, Devlet Bahceli, suggested that Turkey was a potential target for Israel, accusing the country of strategically "encircling" Turkey with its military actions. He didn’t elaborate.

Analysts say, however, that such statements were for "domestic consumption" to garner support amid growing anti-Israel sentiment in Turkey.

"I don’t think that Israel has any interest in attacking Turkey, or Turkey has any interest in a conflict with Israel," Han said.

Link

Africa Horn

Cleaning out Puntland’s Cal-Miskaad mountains: Puntland forces capture final hideouts of ISIS militants in Bari region

2025-06-21

18/06/2025
[ShabelleMedia] Puntland
...a region in northeastern Somalia, centered on Garowe in the Nugaal province. Its leaders declared the territory an autonomous state in 1998. Puntland and the equally autonomous Somaliland seem to have avoided the clan rivalries and warlordism that have typified the rest of Somalia, which puts both places high on the list for Islamic subversion...
security forces have seized the last remaining hideouts of Islamic State

...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
(IS) Lions of Islam in the Baallade valley of the Calmiskaad mountains in Puntland’s Bari region, officials said Wednesday.

The forces launched a coordinated offensive from multiple directions, securing all water wells and positions previously held by fleeing IS fighters from the nearby Miraale valley, according to a statement from the Puntland regional administration.

Security sources in Puntland told local media that troops are still pursuing a small number of IS Lions of Islam who narrowly escaped the recent operation and remain in the surrounding area, monitoring the movements of Puntland forces.

The Puntland military continues efforts to secure the area and prevent Lions of Islam from regrouping or launching further attacks.

Puntland says ISIS Leader Escaped Amid Ongoing Offensive in Cal-Miskaad Mountains
16-06-2025
[Garowe] Authorities in Somalia’s northeastern Federal State of Puntland confirmed that Abdulkadir Mumin, the leader of the Islamic State (ISIS) branch in Somalia, has fled the Cal-Miskaad mountain range amid an ongoing military offensive.

The spokesperson for Operation Hillaac, Gen. Mahmoud Ahmed Faadhigo, told local media that intelligence shared by international partners revealed Mumin had escaped the area earlier, although the exact timing and method of his departure remain unclear.

“Abdulkadir Mumin is no longer in Cal-Miskaad,” Faadhigo said, noting that security forces have regained control of 98% of the mountain range, which has been a stronghold for ISIS fighters over the past six months.

While the group's top leader has reportedly escaped, his deputy, Abdirahman Faahiye Isse Mahmoud — the operational commander of ISIS in Somalia — is believed to still be hiding in the area. “We are confident our forces will soon apprehend him,” Faadhigo added.

US Military Airdrops Aid to Puntland Forces Battling ISIS in Calmiskaad Mountains
15/06/2025
[ShabelleMedia] US military aircraft have provided critical support to Puntland security forces fighting ISIS militants in the rugged Calmiskaad mountain region of Somalia’s Bari province.

Due to the difficult terrain, which is inaccessible to vehicles and lacks suitable airstrips, US warplanes have airdropped troops, supplies, and military equipment to Puntland forces actively engaged in counterterrorism operations against entrenched ISIS fighters in the area.

In addition to logistical support, US aircraft have carried out heavy airstrikes targeting ISIS bases and infrastructure in the mountainous region, significantly degrading the extremist group’s operational capabilities.

This military assistance forms part of a broader security partnership between the US and the Puntland administration aimed at dismantling ISIS networks and enhancing regional stability.

Puntland forces have been conducting intense ground operations to reclaim territory from militants who have long used the Calmiskaad mountains as a stronghold.

The operation is seen as a crucial step in curbing the threat posed by ISIS in northeastern Somalia, improving security in the Bari region and Puntland as a whole.

Puntland president says ISIS sought to turn Cal-Miskaad into global terror command center
15-06-2025
[Garowe] Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni said Sunday that ISIS-linked militants planned to turn the Cal-Miskaad mountain range into a global hub for coordinating terror activities. Still, the plan was foiled by Puntland's "heroic forces."

Speaking before the Puntland parliament, Deni said militants aimed to establish the remote mountain range in northeastern Somalia as a base for directing extremist attacks worldwide.

"The terrorists planned to make Cal-Miskaad the main base for directing heinous acts around the world, but the courageous forces of Puntland dismantled that plot,” he said.

Deni added that the fourth phase of the region’s ongoing counterterrorism operation is scheduled to begin Monday. The campaign will target remaining militant-held positions and prepare for Operation Onkod, a major offensive focused on the nearby Cal-Madaw mountains.

Puntland forces have been battling both ISIS and al-Shabab militants entrenched in rugged terrain. In December 2024, Puntland launched Operation Hilaac in the Cal-Miskaad mountains, killing several foreign fighters and reclaiming large areas from ISIS control.

Puntland Forces Capture Turkish ISIS Fighter Amid Major Anti-Terror Offensive
14-06-2025
[Garowe] The Puntland Counter-Terrorism Forces have arrested a Turkish national fighting with the ISIS militants group in the northeastern state of Somalia, a significant step towards defeating the terrorists who have been on the receiving end for the last five months.

Puntland Defense Forces, working closely with the US Africa Command and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Forces, have managed to penetrate the Cal-Miskaad mountains, a major stronghold of the ISIS terrorists since the start of the Hilaac operation in December 2024.

Photos published by the Puntland Television show a Turkish national believed to be a member of ISIS militants in the remote Cal Miskaad mountains, where a security operation is ongoing in what is currently known as Operation Lightning.

The man was reportedly carrying an AK-47 and was collecting water from a well when troops spotted him within Baalade valley, Bari region, which is a major stronghold of the ISIS terrorists, whose presence in the state has drastically waned.

It may not be a surprise because since the operation started in December 2024, many foreign nationals, especially fighters from Yemen, Morocco, Ethiopia, and even Kenya, have been either killed or captured in Puntland state.

With the intelligence reports suggesting a growing number of foreign nationals fighting alongside ISIS militants in Somalia, the regional government of Puntland instructed locals to report foreigners within key towns and market centers in the state for action.

Several foreigners were arrested following the order, with a number of them currently in police custody as investigations continue. Puntland maintains that the victory against ISIS militants is inevitable while accusing the federal government of Somalia of failing to support the troops.

The US and the United Arab Emirates have been providing aerial surveillance throughout the operations, managing to eliminate several terrorists. In February, President Donald Trump announced the death of a key ISIS fighter following an operation.

Last year, the Americans thought they had eliminated Abdulkadir Mumin, the ISIS global leader, but intelligence reports suggested otherwise. The group, however, has lost the strategic Cal-Miskaad mountains, which served as their command base.

A few days ago, the Puntland forces took control of areas along the Sadow, Cadalle, and Raa-raha valleys in Baallade (Calmiskaad) after 3 days of air and ground Operations. Several ISIS terrorists were killed, and weapons and equipment were seized, officials said.

Turkey is a major security and development partner of Somalia, and the news about its national serving alongside ISIS militants could trigger national debate. Turkey trains the elite Gorgor troops who are critical in the fight against Al-Shabaab within the southern and central regions.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has routinely worked with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan on counterterrorism strategies, with Somalia being a huge beneficiary. Hassan Sheikh is under intense criticism over his approach in the fight against terror groups.

Link

Terror Networks

The Paradox of Islamic Solidarity: Which of Our Co-Religionists Will Come to Iran's Aid

2025-06-20

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov

[REGNUM] In response to the Israeli attacks on Iran on June 13, the Islamic world demonstrated a rare degree of diplomatic consolidation.

Verbally, anyway. Mustaches were cursed, shoes thrown en masse. Beyond that, they haven’t stopped Israel from flying through their airspace on the way to flattening hundreds more key buildings somewhere in Iran.

This was expressed in a joint statement by twenty countries, led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, the UAE and Pakistan. But behind the rare unity in condemning Israel lies a complex mosaic of positions reflecting deep regional contradictions.

The collective document qualified Israel's actions as a gross violation of Iran's sovereignty and international law, especially given the targeted strikes on nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards.

The signatories unanimously warned that such actions create an extremely dangerous precedent, threaten the stability of the entire Middle East and jeopardize the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical to the global economy and through which a third of global oil supplies pass.

GULF STATES UNDER THREAT
The current conflict is of particular concern to the Gulf states, which are watching with growing alarm the prospect of further escalation and expansion of the confrontation between Israel and Iran.

In recent days, the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have made their position very clear: they categorically do not want to be drawn into a large-scale armed conflict that they did not provoke and do not seek.

This position is not dictated by abstract concerns.

The presence of major US military bases and vital strategic infrastructure, including oil terminals, ports and logistics hubs on their territory, makes the Gulf states potential targets if the Donald Trump administration joins Israel's actions.

The leaders of the Arab monarchies understand that escalation could spread quickly to their own cities, jeopardizing not only the safety of their populations, but also the very foundations of their economies, which are deeply integrated into global energy supply chains.

Against this backdrop, discontent is growing in Arab capitals with Trump’s approach to current events, his de facto support for Israeli aggression, and even plans to join it. For the GCC states, this essentially means the US abandoning its own promises to prevent regional escalation – assurances Trump gave to Arab leaders during his May visit to the Gulf states.

Now, Israel's actions and the US administration's failure to contain Netanyahu do not guarantee the GCC countries' security even if they maintain consistent neutrality.

Israeli air force attacks on Iranian nuclear infrastructure raise concerns about potential expansion of strike targets. The Gulf littoral states' main nightmare is a strike on Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant.

The location of this facility just three hundred kilometers from the coast of Arabia makes the scenario of radioactive contamination catastrophically real. A release of radiation into the Persian Gulf would have immediate and long-term devastating consequences.

Radioactive contamination will inevitably affect the desalination plants from which the Gulf countries receive the bulk of their drinking water, creating a direct threat to the livelihoods of millions of people.

Water contamination will destroy fish stocks and cause irreparable damage to aquaculture, undermining an important economic sector and food security. The consequences for the unique marine ecosystem of the Persian Gulf will be irreversible.

In light of these risks, the message from the Gulf monarchies is extremely pragmatic and urgent.

They call for the need to contain the escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran at all costs and to protect the critical energy flows from the Persian Gulf, the stability of which is vital for the global economy. It is fundamentally important for them to prevent the involvement of other regional players in the conflict, but above all the United States, which would inevitably turn a local confrontation into a regional and even global conflagration.

Whether Washington and Tel Aviv respond to this call will be the decisive factor in determining the region's prospects.

At stake is a test of the fundamental strategy that monarchies have pursued in recent years - hedging, balancing between global powers, economic diversification and attempts to reduce dependence on oil.

Will these carefully constructed buffers and alternatives be able to withstand the onslaught of a full-scale regional war, or will the entire strategic project collapse in the chaos of a large-scale conflict, setting the region back decades?

The answer depends largely on the ability of the international community to hear and respond to the alarm bells coming from the Gulf. But it is clear that grandiose transformation programs like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 are now under renewed threat.

In fact, Saudi Arabia was forced to make peace with the Houthis precisely because of the stalled implementation of this program, which requires “greenhouse conditions,” and any security challenges put it at risk.

Now, however, a new war, started without any participation from Riyadh, is proving even more destructive for the country's modernization projects.

It is obvious that if the US is drawn into the conflict, Iran's missile salvoes against US bases in the Gulf countries will set their programs back many years, and they will lose their investment appeal for many years. And it is not worth thinking that all Iranian missiles will end up in Israel.

The Islamic Republic has only used medium-range missiles that can reach the Jewish state for retaliatory strikes, while its vast stockpiles of tactical missiles have not been used. But they could be used if Trump decides to join Netanyahu.

Thus, the consequences of the June 13 attacks create serious systemic risks for the region, and possible US intervention will push Tehran to an asymmetric response that could also destabilize Lebanon and Iraq, where Iranian influence remains.

Even if Washington does not join the Israeli attacks, the US passivity in containing Israel and Donald Trump's indirect support for it are damaging American plans for the Gulf Arab monarchies, forcing them to continue to distance themselves from the Abraham Accords.

The economic threat is existential for them: a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran would paralyze the oil exports of the Gulf countries, whose budgets are critically dependent on energy revenues.

The deaths of prominent nuclear scientists such as Abdolhamid Minouchehr can only accelerate Iran's development of nuclear weapons in underground complexes like Fordo, creating a new source of global instability and forcing Arab countries to rethink their security strategies.

CONFLICTING CONVICTIONS
Türkiye has seemingly taken the most radical position, openly calling for sanctions against Israel and essentially supporting Iran's military response as a right to self-defense.

“Iran’s right to defend itself against banditry and state terrorism from Israel is completely natural, legitimate and legally justified,” Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said at a meeting of the parliamentary faction of the ruling Justice and Development Party.
At the same time, the territory of the Turkish Republic can still be used by US and NATO aircraft to collect intelligence information in the interests of Israel.

In turn, the State of Qatar insists on an immediate international investigation into Israel's actions under the auspices of the UN, expressing direct solidarity with the victims of the attacks in Iran.

Saudi Arabia, despite its historic rivalry with Tehran, has suddenly issued a strong condemnation, using the rhetoric of the “Muslim Brotherhood” and criticizing the West’s “double standards,” in a desperate attempt to prevent a chain escalation that could derail the kingdom’s economic diversification plans.

Pakistan also supported this line, calling Israel's actions aggression, a challenge to all Muslims and demanding collective measures of defense.

"Israel has set its sights on Yemen, Iran and Palestine. If the Islamic world does not unite now, we will all face the same fate," Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif said. And Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif spoke by phone with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and assured him of unwavering support.

In contrast, the UAE and Egypt have shown noticeable restraint.

Abu Dhabi has called for dialogue to “prevent the conflict from widening,” while Cairo has offered to act as a mediator to resume talks on the nuclear deal, indirectly acknowledging ongoing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.

Indonesia and Morocco have joined the OIC's general rhetoric but avoided making specific commitments, demonstrating caution in the face of geopolitical turbulence.

Oman, which traditionally acts as a regional peacemaker, took a special position.

Sultan Haitham bin Tarek Al Said called on both sides in a telephone conversation with Pezeshkian to exercise "maximum restraint and immediately return to the negotiation process," warning of the catastrophic humanitarian and economic consequences of an escalation for the entire region.

He reiterated Muscat's readiness to open its diplomatic channels for de-escalation, recalling Oman's historic role in mediating between Iran and the US, including talks disrupted by the June 15 attacks.

However, the Grand Mufti of Oman, Ahmad al-Khalili, took a tougher stance: “We were stunned and shocked by the aggression of the Zionist entity against Iran. Despite this, we believe and are confident that Allah Almighty will defeat them [Israel] and will do so through the hands of the Iranian armed forces – something that the souls of believers aspire to.”

And in the next message, Al-Khalili said: “The Iranian response to the Zionist aggression was firm and decisive, calming hearts after it achieved results. It opened the door to hope that the hated Zionist occupation of the Holy Lands will end irrevocably, if God allows.”

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
At the same time, deep fault lines within Islamic solidarity became apparent in the first hours after the attacks.

Not a single country, including Israel's most vocal critics – Turkey, Qatar and Pakistan – has offered Iran real military support, limiting itself to rhetoric and diplomatic demarches.

Despite the fact that there are American military facilities on the territory of these countries that could be used against Iran, and may already be used for intelligence purposes.

Significant differences also emerged in the interpretation of the nuclear issue.

While Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been insistent on the need to control Iran's nuclear program, Pakistan and Qatar have deliberately ignored the issue, focusing exclusively on "Israeli aggression."

The neutrality of Algeria, Morocco and Malaysia, which abstained from signing the joint statement, once again confirmed the caution of many Muslim countries, who are not ready to sacrifice relations with the West for the sake of demonstrating unity.

It is significant that Algeria, previously Israel's most consistent opponent and Iran's close Arab partner, expressed its position only after the country's Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf took a phone call from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi.

"Foreign Minister Ahmed Attaf reiterated Algeria's unwavering position, which, while condemning Israel's aggression, stresses the need for the UN Security Council to assume responsibility for ensuring compliance with international law and the principles of the UN Charter in order to stop Israeli attacks," the official statement said.

Thus, the Islamic world's reaction to the Israeli-Iranian standoff reflects the paradox of tactical unity amid strategic fault lines.

Condemnation of Israel, based on principles of sovereignty and fear of a regional conflagration, has allowed for temporary consolidation. However, unresolved contradictions – from the age-old Sunni-Shiite rivalry to fundamentally different approaches to relations with the US and assessment of the Iranian nuclear threat – block the transition to real collective action.

Oman's position, balancing between solidarity with Iran and pragmatic mediation, serves as a clear illustration of this duality.

The June 13 attacks have fueled anti-Israel rhetoric, but they have not addressed the underlying conflicts that make the “Muslim consensus” extremely fragile.

However, further escalation could reformat the entire system of regional alliances, pushing even moderate regimes into confrontation with Israel and its allies, which threatens the Middle East with destabilization on an unprecedented scale.

Link

The Grand Turk

Israel violates Turkish airspace during airstrikes on Iran, prompting response

2025-06-17

[TURKIYETODAY] Turkish columnist Hande Firat in Hurriyet daily revealed that Israeli fighter jets briefly violated Turkish airspace, prompting Türkiye's response. While this was not considered intentional, the Turkish Armed Forces responded immediately by scrambling F-16 fighter jets. The Israeli aircraft were warned via radio and promptly exited the area.

No harm, no foul. But the Turks do like their drama.

ISRAEL OPERATION LEARNED VIA KURECIK BASE
According to Firat, Türkiye, as a NATO member, learned about the Israeli operation in advance through intelligence gathered from the Kurecik radar base, which shares data exclusively with NATO allies, as well as through its intelligence channels. Movements preceding the attack were tracked in real time, allowing Turkish authorities to implement security precautions swiftly.

Throughout the night of the strike, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan remained in close contact with his American counterpart, engaging in multiple phone calls to monitor and assess developments.

ISRAELI AIRCRAFT BRIEFLY ENTERED TURKISH AIRSPACE
Firat revealed that some Israeli jets involved in the operation briefly violated Türkiye’s airspace.

As a precaution, early warning aircraft continue to patrol Turkish skies, while F-16s remain on high alert. Turkish military units stationed in various regional countries were also placed on standby.

Firat noted that Israeli forces used Syrian and Iraqi airspace for the attack. Syria has no effective air defense system, and Israeli aircraft reportedly operate there without requesting clearance. Iraq’s airspace is under U.S. control, and the U.S. permitted Israel to access it.

Convenient, both.

ERDOGAN SUGGESTS ISTANBUL FOR US-IRAN TALKS
Firat also reported that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is seeking to re-establish nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. His proposal includes hosting both parties in Istanbul. He raised this idea directly with U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Trump is said to have responded positively, stating his aircraft was ready and he would be willing to attend.

Ankara’s proposal envisions a negotiation table with just the U.S. and Iran. While Iran has not openly acknowledged its vulnerable position—especially following damage to its air defense infrastructure—Turkish officials believe Tehran is seeking an honorable path forward.

With unbelievers?? They were never honourable before, why start now? And what about Israel, which is the one with the hot war with Iran — or in Turkey’s opinion are the Mad Mullahs on their own there?

However, merely announcing a return to talks is unlikely to satisfy Washington. The U.S. is expected to demand concrete commitments from Iran regarding the status of its nuclear facilities.

A veritable bargain with Crassus — now to be sold at fire sale prices after Israel gets through with them.

Despite Trump’s initial enthusiasm, Ankara remains cautious due to the unpredictable nature of his foreign policy and the presence of influential pro-Israel factions in Washington.

Link

The Grand Turk

On the side of a historical rival. Why Erdogan supported Iran

2025-06-16

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kamran Gasanov

[REGNUM] Israel's attack on Iranian nuclear and military facilities on the night of June 12-13 came as a shock to many countries in the Middle East.

It cannot be said that it was unexpected, since Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia had asked Donald Trump the day before not to use force against Iran, since a retaliatory strike could hit American bases on their territory.

Did they mean it, or was that merely face-saving posturing?

But the escalation that began, which was very difficult to control, especially given Trump’s own compliments to the Israeli army (IDF), seriously frayed the nerves of Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman, his colleagues in the GCC and one of Israel’s main antagonists in the region, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The poor darlings, all of whom — except, in the medium term, Turkey — are considerably safer now than they were before. Turkey needs to hope that President Trump will protect them from Israel’s ire, given how awful they’ve been in that direction, but after seeing how Iran was not protected, perhaps ought not be as smugly sanguine as they were…

The first official reaction from Ankara began to come closer to midday on June 13. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan accused Israel of violating international law, destabilizing the region and provoking the US-Iran talks.

Because America needs to be white knighted like that…

Vice President Cevdet Yilmaz announced that Turkey "strongly condemns the Netanyahu administration's aggression," which has no legitimate justification and is aimed at undermining regional stability.

Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş said Israel's actions were plunging "the region and the world into flames."

Hystarical much? Given how carefully Israel has targetted her hits, even Iran in general is not plunged into flames — exactly as was observed in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

The head of the Turkish presidential administration's communications department, Fahrettin Altun, said the strikes on Iran showed "how dangerous the genocidal Netanyahu administration has become for the region and world peace."

Speaking via social media that evening, Erdogan summarized the positions of his comrades, repeating the theses about Israel’s intention to disrupt the negotiations between Iran and the United States, violating international law and destabilizing the region, but adding emotional assessments.

The attacks, he said, demonstrate "the Israeli mentality of breaking all rules" and that the international community needs to stop "Israeli banditry."

You going to bell the Israeli cat, perhaps? No? Then we know what to think about you.

The Turkish president's words, bordering on insult, are in fact resonating with millions of Muslims, and especially Arabs, who have been watching the extermination of tens of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza for almost two years.

Either in their heart of hearts they don’t believe what they say, or they are cowards, all. Either is acceptable.

Israel uses force not only in Palestine, but also in neighboring Lebanon and Syria. After the change of power in Syria to the pro-Turkish Ahmed al-Sharaa, Ankara has another point of conflict with Netanyahu.

The IDF has been shelling Turkish military base construction sites in Syria. In May, Turkey and Israel, brokered by Trump, launched de-escalation talks in Baku, but the prospects for normalization have become even more dim after Israel’s attack on Iran.

Israel has had normalization with Turkey. Several times, as Erdogan’s mood and calculations wax and wane. It no longer seems a goal worth striving for, given how quickly President Erdogan turns negative.

At the same time, Erdogan has no sympathy for Iran or its “axis of resistance,” to put it mildly. Turkey has been butting heads with pro-Iranian Bashar al-Assad in Syria for many years. In December 2024, Ankara effectively drove the Iranians out of Damascus.

Against this background, Europe has another argument to stop isolating Ankara and move towards rapprochement with it. For the EU and Britain, Turkey has become a window of access to Syria - the first visits of European foreign ministers were organized by the Turkish side.

When Trump began to question America’s participation in ensuring European security and gradually “withdrew” from support for Ukraine, Turkey’s importance for the Old World increased to the skies.

However, they will still not be able to become allies: there are too many contradictions.

Europe is trying to split the Turkic world - Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan disowned Northern Cyprus at the EU summit. Erdogan's activity in the Mediterranean with attempts to divide maritime borders with Libya and Syria worries Cyprus, Greece, France and other EU members.

The Iranian issue, although not the main point of divergence between Turkey and the EU, does not add sugar to the tea of the Turkish-European partnership.

While Erdogan accused Netanyahu of banditry, European countries quickly changed their tune. If yesterday they threatened to impose sanctions on Israel for its new operation "Gideon's Chariots", now Germany, France and Great Britain are talking about its "right to self-defense".

Erdogan did not quarrel with the Europeans because of their hypocrisy. Firstly, because investments, trade and defense projects with Europe are important and necessary for him. And secondly, despite all the hatred for the "murderer Netanyahu", Iran is not the topic for which it is worth taking such a principled position.

As in the previous year, when Iran and Israel also exchanged blows and sabotage, Turkey is again formally on Iran’s side. Erdogan needs to show solidarity with the Islamic world and its protector in the face of Israeli expansion. Last summer, he even proposed creating an “Islamic army” in response to the killings in Gaza and attacks on Lebanon.

It is worth remembering that Iran and Turkey have historically been competitors in the region. In the first half of the 16th century, the Ottoman Empire waged grueling wars with the Safavid Empire for control over eastern Anatolia, Kurdistan, and the South Caucasus. And at the present stage of history, Türkiye and Iran are still competing for influence in the Middle East and the South Caucasus.

Iran was very unhappy with the plans to create the "Zangezur Corridor" between Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan and Turkey. Erdogan took over one of Iran's proxies, Syria, and is forcing competition on Iran in Shiite Iraq, implementing the "Development Road" project there, connecting Istanbul with the Persian Gulf.

Despite the objective competition, the situational interests of Turkey and Iran in relation to Israel coincide. Both Erdogan and Ayatollah Khamenei want to stop the war in Gaza and oppose further Israeli expansion in Lebanon and Syria.

Turkey is not happy with the breakdown of the “nuclear negotiations” because Ankara is interested in lifting sanctions against Iran.

Under the Obama administration, Turkey's Halkbank was indicted in the U.S. for circumventing these restrictions in the Zarrab affair, a scheme that involved several members of Erdogan's cabinet.

Tehran and Ankara, despite all their problems, manage to keep competition within reasonable limits. That is why Erdogan unilaterally expressed condolences to the “friendly and brotherly people of Iran,” ignoring the losses on the Israeli side.

International crises involving Muslim countries are always an opportunity to strengthen relations with the Islamic world, in which Türkiye is extremely interested.

Erdogan's first call was to the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, whose rhetoric toward Israel has hardened, and the King of Jordan. Calls were also made to two other allied states that are extremely sensitive to relations with Israel.

The Turkish president tried to convince Syrian leader Al-Sharaa not to get involved in the confrontation between Iran and Israel, since such a situation would require Turkey to declare war on Israel, and in fact, on the US and NATO.

Consultations were also held with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who is allied with Israel, and it was important for Erdogan to hear from Baku that it would not provide its territory for an attack on Iran. After all, in that case, Tehran could strike Azerbaijan, which would force Turkey to act within the framework of the "Shushin Declaration."

In the context of the Iranian-Israeli standoff, another point has been identified from the point of view of Turkey's interests. The fact is that Russia and the United States are working to put an end to the conflict. After a conversation with Vladimir Putin, the American leader announced that they both believe that the war must end.

On the same day, June 14, Erdogan called Trump and said that Ankara was ready to make every effort to prevent uncontrolled escalation. On June 15, Fidan discussed de-escalation with his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov.

Erdogan, judging by Trump's compliments, Turkey's mediation in the dialogue between Al-Sharaa and the head of the White House and the Istanbul talks with Marco Rubio, enjoys the US President's great respect. Russia still counts on the "Istanbul format" of negotiations with Ukraine and appreciates Erdogan's efforts to resolve the conflict.

Inspired by relative successes in Ukraine and support from the Kremlin and the White House, Erdogan may try on the role of peacemaker in the Iran-Israel conflict.

Unlike Eastern Europe, where Ankara manages to maintain “equally close” contacts with Kiev and Moscow, in the Middle East conflict, Erdogan’s candidacy as a mediator will clearly not be approved by Israel. However, Türkiye can become a mediator between the US and Iran.

In October 2024, before Iran launched strikes on Israel in retaliation for the killing of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, the Turkish Foreign Ministry, at the request of the State Department, tried to dissuade Tehran from attacking, calling on the US and Iran to make reasonable decisions.

Ankara may make a new attempt at mediation, but its success will depend on Trump's ability to stop new Israeli attacks.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Top US commander reports 'sticking points' in SDF's integration into Damascus forces

2025-06-12

[Rudaw] US Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander General Michael "Erik" Kurilla acknowledged on Tuesday there are some “sticking points” in ongoing efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) into the new Syrian security apparatus.

“I would tell you it's actually going well right now there's some sticking points but what's happening is you have the Syrian Kurds are talking directly to [Syrian interim President Ahmed] al-Sharaa and the Syrian government right now,” Kurilla said when Congressman Abe Hamadeh asked him about SDF’s integration during a congressional hearing.

“Turkey has played a positive role in that as well but I think that we're on a good path right now,” he added.

Turkey, a longtime supporter of the anti-Assad Syrian opposition, emerged as a key ally of the new Syrian leadership. Ankara considers the People’s Protection Units (YPG), backbone of the SDF, as the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) - which announced its dissolution in mid-May as part of ongoing peace talks with the Turkish government. The process has eased tensions between the SDF and Ankara.

Regarding integrating other minorities into Damascus institutions, Kurilla said the US is currently focused on the Kurds in northeast Syria (Rojava) for now.

SDF is the de facto army in Rojava and the global coalition's main ally on the ground in the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS).

In early December, a coalition of opposition groups, led by the now-dissolved Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) - then-led by Sharaa - toppled the Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in a swift offensive.

By late January, the new authorities in Damascus had disbanded the Syrian army and the long-ruling Baathist Party, annulled the constitution, and formed an interim government headed by Sharaa.

Sharaa and SDF chief Mazloum Abdi signed a landmark agreement on March 10, which included the integration of the SDF and Rojava institutions into the interim government. The deal has been welcomed by regional and international countries, including Turkey. However, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently called on both sides to accelerate the process.

ISIS has tried to take advantage of the shifted security and political landscape in Syria. The SDF has reported a dramatic increase in ISIS activities in Syria, especially in the eastern province of Deir ez-Zor.

Kurilla reaffirmed that the global coalition partners are on the front lines, where “they remain crucial to the enduring defeat of ISIS battling the group across their respective countries as well as enabling the repatriation of ISIS detainees and displaced persons.”

Also on Tuesday, the global coalition member states affirmed their commitment in combating ISIS in post-Assad Syria during an anti-ISIS meeting in Madrid.

“The members addressed the ISIS/Daesh security risks in Syria, including those associated with detained ISIS/Daesh fighters and civilians in displaced persons camps in the northeast. They affirmed the Coalition’s continuing commitment to counter ISIS/Daesh in post-Assad Syria, including through increased border security and information sharing and the return and repatriation of Syrians, Iraqis, and third country nationals to their communities and countries of origin,” read a joint statement by the US, UK and Spain.

ERBIL-BAGHDAD TENSIONS
The CENTCOM commander also touched on tensions between Baghdad and Erbil after the Iraqi finance ministry recently said it would halt all budget transfers to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), including salaries for public sector employees for the remainder of the year.

Iraqi Finance Minister Taif Sami accused Erbil of exceeding its share of the 2025 federal budget by over $10 billion, a figure KRG Finance Minister Awat Sheikh Janab said was “made up.”

When asked why the US is still subsidizing Iraq even though it is withholding the public salaries and military equipment of the Kurdistan Region, he said the US ends up “working through them [the disputes], they [the Kurds] end up getting the salaries, they end up getting the equipment,” blaming Iran for the issues.

Salary disputes between the two governments have been ongoing for nearly a decade.

“Despite all of the the setbacks that Iran has been facing the last few months I think Iran is trying to double down on getting their grip inside of Iraq but I think Iraq is a sovereign nation and they don't want to be a vassal state of Iran, of course, although there's a lot of Iranian militias currently still operating Iraq,” he noted.

Speaking at a press briefing on Tuesday, US State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce emphasized, “We urge Baghdad and Erbil to resolve their issues through constructive dialogue, consistent with their constitutional responsibilities.”

Bruce noted that resolving the salary dispute would not only signal political progress but also foster an environment conducive to foreign investment. “A successful resolution would send a signal that Iraq is creating an environment in which US companies would want to invest.”

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Thirty-five dead in Israeli strikes on Syria since Assad’s fall: Monitor

2025-06-09

[Rudaw] At least 35 people, including soldiers and civilians, have been killed in Israeli ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s on Syrian territory since the fall of Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Despoiler of Deraa...
’s regime on December 8, a war monitor reported on Sunday.

"The territory of Syria has been targeted 63 times, including 50 airstrikes and 10 ground attacks, resulting in the death and martyrdom of 35 people," said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britannia-based war monitor.

The now-dissolved Islamist Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
(HTS), headed by Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, spearheaded a coalition of opposition groups in early December that toppled Assad’s regime.

Since then, Israel has intensified efforts to destroy Damascus’s military stockpiles, and Israeli forces have entered a buffer zone east of the annexed Golan Heights, justifying their actions as a security precaution amid Syria’s ongoing political instability.

The corpse count included 15 civilians and nine soldiers of Syria’s new army, according to the Observatory.

"Israeli aircraft also launched approximately 500 airstrikes on military sites, destroying Syria’s entire weapons arsenal," it added.

Israel has refused to establish ties with the interim government in Damascus, with several Israeli officials calling the new Syrian authorities murderous Moslems.

But US President Donald Trump
...New York real estate developer, described by Dems as illiterate, racist, misogynistic, and whatever other unpleasant descriptions they can think of, elected by the rest of us as 45th and 47th President of the United States...
is trying to mend ties between the two countries. On May 14, he called on Sharaa to normalize ties with Israel during a meeting in Riyadh hosted by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

...Crown Prince and modernizer of Saudi Arabia as of 2016. The Turks hate him, so he must be all right, despite the occasional brutal murder of Qatar-owned journalists...
and attended remotely by Ottoman Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan'>His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First

Link

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