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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
US-Iran talks in Switzerland shunt Israel to the sidelines, but it's not out of the fight
2026-06-22
[IsraelTimes] After years of weakening Iran and its proxies, Israel can only watch as Tehran gains leverage over its most important ally, but it’s unlikely to simply accept whatever is decided in talks it’s not party to

Sunday looked like a bleak day for Israel.

As talks opened in Burgenstock, Switzerland
...home of the Helvetians, famous for cheese, watches, yodeling, and William Tell...
, on a US-Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
deal that could hardly be more high stakes for the country, Jerusalem was nowhere to be found, or heard.

Relegated to the role of armchair quarterback, Israel could only figuratively yell at the TV as its closest ally — the country that joined it in war against its arch-nemesis Iran some 100 days ago — began formally negotiating with Tehran on a permanent end to the conflict.

As US Vice President JD Vance arrived at the Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
i-owned resort where talks were being held Sunday morning, he was greeted by delegations from Doha, Islamabad, and Tehran, all of whom have a seat at the table.

Israel had no part in negotiating the MOU, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has distanced himself from it. Still, the terms of the opening clause, permanently ending the war and ruling out any resumption, indicate that it is binding on the US, Iran "and their allies." Israeli officials are bitterly opposed to the deal’s terms, which resolve none of the war’s key goals — notably, eliminating Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and creating the conditions for the fall of the regime.

The first item on their agenda, according to reports, was an emergency session on Israel’s conflict with the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group in Leb
...The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. Only one of those statements is an exaggeration....
. Of the two states and one terror proxy group with skin in the game, only Hezbollah, closely controlled and funded by Iran, could be said to have anything resembling representation in the negotiations.

After two and a half years of steadily weakening Iran and its proxies, and proving itself as a powerful regional actor that could fight as an equal alongside the world’s superpower, Israel is now seeing Tehran gain influence over both Washington and the regional agenda.

The US-Iran memorandum of understanding and the talks now unfolding in Switzerland remain fresh and vulnerable to collapse. Yet even if they hold, they are unlikely to mark the end of Israel’s fight against Iran so much as the start of a new phase — one in which Israel’s next confrontation may be more solitary than it once hoped.

STRAIT TALK
As negotiators in Switzerland prepared to discuss the future of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, the absence of both Israel and Lebanon suggests worryingly that Jerusalem had been placed in much the same category as Lebanon’s weak central government — or, more troublingly, is seen as an American proxy much as Hezbollah is Iran’s.

While many in Israel understood that any end to the war would ultimately require American-brokered compromises, the rhetoric coming out of Washington has been strikingly unsympathetic to Israeli concerns.

Vance, who did not mention Israel at all in his opening remarks at the negotiations, has made little effort to hide his impatience with the US’s "very small partner," in the words of his boss US President Donald Trump
...The Hero of Butler, Pennsylvania...
He has dismissed concerns over the memorandum of understanding and emerging nuclear negotiations, telling news hounds he found "this whole freakout in Israel a little bit odd" and a sign of unwarranted "mistrust."

He has argued that "you can’t just kill your way out of solving every single national security problem," urged Israeli critics to "wake up and smell the reality," and, at a recent White House briefing, reminded Jerusalem that Trump is now among the few world leaders openly sympathetic to Israel while noting how much of its arsenal is American-made.

Washington’s growing willingness to pressure Israel in public has boosted the perception that Iran had arrived at these talks carrying the ultimate leverage through the Strait of Hormuz, with Israel seen as an obstacle to getting the vital waterway open.

Wednesday’s MOU dictated no more fighting in Lebanon, but Hezbollah has continued attacking soldiers in the southern Lebanon security zone, prompting retaliatory strikes from Israel.

After Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz shut again on Saturday — citing continued Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon — the talks’ opening session was restructured around the Lebanon question rather than the nuclear file, showing Iran’s ability to use the threat of economic disruption to constrain Israeli military action.

Trump’s willingness to go along with Iran on Lebanon may pave the way to short-term gains on Hormuz. But it hardly serves US strategic interests, argued Robert Satloff, executive director of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

"Acceding to Iran’s demand on [Lebanon] undermines not one but two American allies — democratically elected governments in Beirut and Jerusalem — as well as the longstanding US policy of supporting direct negotiations between the parties," he wrote on X.

"In the process, this lends wholly undeserved support to Iran’s baseless claim that its backing of a terrorist organization — Hezbollah — gives it legitimate standing to determine the fate of Lebanon," he added.

ELECTION TENSION
The fact that both Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are facing upcoming elections — the US is not voting for president this year but so-called midterm elections will determine how much support Trump will have in Congress, as well as foreshadow the 2028 ballot — only heightens the tense political standoff between Jerusalem and Washington, with both leaders seeking largely mutually exclusive goals to sell to their domestic publics.

"In order for Bibi to avoid his worst-case scenario [of losing the election], he needs to keep up a very strong position on Lebanon," said Michael Oren, former Israeli ambassador to Washington, using Netanyahu’s nickname. "And Trump, in order to keep his position, to avoid his nightmare, he has to prevent Bibi" from doing so.

Israel has bit the bullet and accepted diktats from the US in the past, but Oren argued there was a limit to how much Jerusalem would go along with, especially regarding its defense.

"It’s never a question about what Israel can do. It’s what Israel must do. And this country cannot, cannot countenance or endure Hezbollah fire on our soldiers or our civilians," he said. "You’ll have to strike back... this is a paramount strategic interest of the state of Israel."

Still, Iran will likely continue to test how far its leverage over Hormuz can go in Lebanon, and it very well may test whether the same formula can shield Hamas
..the well-beloved offspring of the Moslem Brotherhood,...
, the Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is God is Great, Death to America™, Death to Israel, a curse on the Jews They like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
s and other regional proxies, or influence future policies in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
, the West Bank and East Jerusalem.

TOO MANY EGGS IN US BASKET
None of this means Israel’s fight against Iran or its proxies is over.

Whatever comes out of Burgenstock will likely be framed by Trump as a victory as he tries to show he’s in control.

Netanyahu, as he largely has been up until now, will be in the uncomfortable position of deciding how loudly to object to an agreement Israel never signed.

Yet Israel’s exclusion from the talks is not necessarily a liability. If Jerusalem is not formally party to any understanding reached in Switzerland, it can argue that it remains unbound by it — that its military options against Iran’s nuclear program, regional proxies and remaining infrastructure have not been negotiated away.

Washington may even have structured things this way deliberately, to give Israel a plausible distance. There is also the possibility that the public tensions between Trump and Netanyahu mask continued coordination behind the scenes, as they did in previous US-Iran nuclear talks.

But it’s just as likely, if not more so, that Trump is simply eager to find a diplomatic off-ramp for a war that has angered Americans and driven prices up.

And even if negotiations advance, Israel can still realistically hope that Tehran will eventually overplay its hand and force Trump to break off the negotiations, Oren added.

There seems to be no getting around the shift in the broader strategic landscape, though.

The Gulf states have spent months watching the Hormuz crisis unfold and drawing their own conclusions about the durability of American power in the region and the US-Israel security umbrella.

That poses a challenge for the broader logic that underpinned the US-brokered Abraham Accords normalization agreements.

"The cement of the Abraham Accords was the belief in the staying power of American force. And that’s not happening," Oren said, warning that "there’s a greater possibility that Gulf states will start gravitating toward Tehran now."

The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
, Pakistain, and Qatar are now seen as key regional mediators, and none of them is likely to push policies that benefit Israel.

None of this diminishes the importance of the US-Israel alliance. Military and intelligence ties forged during the war remain deeper than ever. But it does reinforce the need for Israel to broaden its strategic options beyond Washington.

"About 97% of our security purchases are from the United States. And that’s too many eggs in one basket... also in view of what’s happening politically in America, we have to diversify our foreign policy portfolio," Oren said. "It is the only thing we can do."

Washington remains an indispensable ally for Israel. Yet the conditions that made a genuine wartime partnership possible earlier this year may not return anytime soon. The fight to prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear and missile capabilities, rearming Hezbollah and other proxies and consolidating its regional gains could continue for years — and with less help than Israel once expected.
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Golani forces eliminate terrorists, uncover Hezbollah weapons
2026-04-28

Text:

🚹 GOLANI FORCES ELIMINATE TERRORISTS (VIDEO), UNCOVER HEZBOLLAH WEAPONS

IDF troops from the Golani Brigade, operating in southern Lebanon, identified and eliminated armed terrorists who posed an immediate threat.

The strikes were carried out in close-quarters combat and with drone support.

In a separate operation, forces uncovered multiple Hezbollah weapons depots containing anti-tank explosives, UAVs, remote detonation systems, RPGs, Kalashnikov rifles, grenades, and additional military equipment.

Operations continue to prevent threats to communities in northern Israel.

More from regnum.ru
Four people were killed in Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon.

At least four people were killed and more than 50 were wounded as a result of Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon. This was reported on April 27 by Al Jazeera, citing the Ministry of Health.

According to the Ministry of Health, the total number of people injured as a result of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon is 55, of whom four were killed and 51 were wounded.

Israeli attacks have killed 2,521 people since March 2 and injured 7,804 others, according to Lebanon's Health Ministry.

More


Text:

Around 20 targets struck across southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley after repeated ceasefire violations by Hezbollah terrorists.

Strikes hit rocket launch sites, weapons depots, and a facility used to manufacture and store weapons—reportedly being rebuilt after prior strikes.

IDF strikes Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley for first time in 3 weeks as some towns in north cancel school
[IsraelTimes] Strikes follow continued Hezbollah fire; Netanyahu asserts Israel’s right to attack, asserts it will advance ceasefire talks; Lebanese president pans terror group for waging war serving ‘foreign interests’

The IDF said it launched a wave of Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s Monday against Hezbollah infrastructure in the Beqaa Valley and several areas of southern Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel...
 as a fragile ceasefire appeared to be rapidly unraveling just days after it was extended.

The strikes came following repeated recent attacks by the Iran-backed terror group on IDF troops and Israel during the truce, including a deadly drone attack in Lebanon the previous day that killed an IDF soldier and maimed six.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted Israel’s freedom to strike Hezbollah targets throughout Lebanon on Monday, while Lebanon’s president, whose government is holding historic direct talks with Israel amid the ceasefire, condemned Hezbollah for attacks it has launched.

Amid the ongoing violence, some local government leaders in northern Israel announced that schools would be canceled for at least one day, part of a range of security measures that were not coordinated with the national government.

No further details were immediately given by the IDF on the strikes. Israel has not struck in Lebanon’s eastern Beqaa Valley, which lies about 80 kilometers (50 miles) north of the border, in some three weeks, before the ceasefire began on April 17.

Security sources told Rooters strikes had hit near the town of Nabi Chit, near Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria, with no immediate reports of casualties. Lebanon’s state media agency reported several strikes across the south that left at least three people maimed.

Later, the military said that IDF troops captured a cache of Hezbollah weapons in southern Lebanon, including first-person view (FPV) drones, anti-tank bombs and remote detonation systems, explosive-laden drones, RPGs, firearms and other weapons.

Hezbollah has made frequent use of small FPV drones in its attacks on Israeli troops in recent weeks, including in a deadly attack Sunday.

The US-mediated ceasefire has seen ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah but was extended on April 24 for an additional three weeks, US President Donald Trump
...New York real estate developer, described by Dems as illiterate, racist, misogynistic, and whatever other unpleasant descriptions they can think of, elected by the rest of us as 45th and 47th President of the United States...
 announced during direct talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon.

Under the terms of the truce, Israel reserves the right to respond to "planned, imminent or ongoing attacks." Trump has also said Israel can open fire in self-defense.

Netanyahu, speaking at a conference of the IDF’s senior command on Monday, argued that military action against the terror group would help advance the ongoing talks with Beirut. The premier touted "tremendous achievements" against Hezbollah, including the "elimination" of their rocket array, as well as the recent reestablishment of a "security zone" in southern Lebanon, which, he said, "prevents the possibility of an invasion into northern Israel, and now also prevents direct anti-tank missile fire, while allowing us to change the situation in Lebanon." His Hebrew-language remarks were shared by his office.

Israel is striking "both in the security zone, north of the security zone, and north of the Litani [River]," Netanyahu continued, touting Israel’s "freedom of action to thwart [both] immediate and emerging threats," as "part of the agreement we reached with the United States and the Lebanese government."

Netanyahu said that only about 10 percent of Hezbollah’s missile stock remains from when the recent bout of fighting began last month, but that "there are still two central threats" posed by the group, namely its 122mm rockets and use of drones and UAVs. If Israel succeeds in countering these threats "through a combination of operational and technological means... we are essentially on the path to disarming Hezbollah — because this is their primary weaponry," Netanyahu said.

The premier suggested that doing so will assist the talks with Beirut, telling the senior IDF officers in the audience that he expects them "to solve these two problems — because on the diplomatic side, I believe we will be able to resolve things, if we have resolved this."

Netanyahu earlier in the day held a security meeting regarding the Hezbollah fire, leading to the cancellation of his testimony in his criminal trial, according to multiple reports.

LEBANON’S AOUN SLAMS HEZBOLLAH FOR SERVING ’FOREIGN INTERESTS’
The talks have been held despite opposition from Hezbollah, which began attacking Israel in support of its sponsor Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as StĂŒrmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or FĂŒhrer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
after the US-Israel war with the Islamic Theocratic Republic began at the end of February. A fragile ceasefire was reached between the US and Iran earlier this month.

Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun told a delegation from villages in southern Lebanon on Monday that negotiating with Israel "is not betrayal," as Beirut and Jerusalem continued talks aimed at reaching a settlement and potential peace deal.

"Betrayal is carried out by those who take their country to war to serve foreign interests," he added, in reference to Hezbollah and Iran.

His remarks were published shortly after Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
, whose group is committed to Israel’s destruction, issued a statement reiterating that the group would not give up its weapons and calling the negotiations with Israel a "grave sin." He asserted that some in Lebanon "reap gains at the expense of the destruction" of the country. Under a previous truce between Israel and Lebanon that ended a bout of fighting in 2024, Lebanese authorities committed to disarming Hezbollah so that it could no longer launch attacks on Israel.

Aoun said: "How long will the people of the south continue to pay the price for the wars of others on our land? If the war were for Lebanon, we would support it — but when its purpose is to serve the interests of others, I reject the war entirely."

Later Monday, Lebanese politician Fouad Makhzoumi argued during a podcast that the country’s military chief should be removed from his position if he is unable to disarm Hezbollah. Appearing on the "Decision Points" podcast of Washington Institute for Near East Policy fellow David Makovsky, Makhzoumi said that Haykal reports to the Lebanese president and the cabinet: "At the end of the day, we are asking them to deliver. If he doesn’t, yes, he has to be removed."

Makhzoumi represents a one-man secular party in the Lebanese parliament, so it wa unclear how widespread his views are, but calls for Haykal’s ouster — in the event that he fails to deliver — are rare.

Haykal presented a five-phase roadmap for disarming Hezbollah last year, but he has faced criticism for the plan’s lack of clear timeline. Moreover, he announced earlier this year that the LAF had succeeded in disarming Hezbollah south of the Litani River, 20 to 30 kilometers from the border with Israel. That declaration proved to be wildly overstated in recent months, given Hezbollah’s repeated firing at Israel from the south of the country during the Iran war.

Haykal’s defenders note that he has been given a highly difficult task, given the degree to which Hezbollah has embedded itself in the fabric of Lebanese society. They argue that a rushed disarmament process could spark another civil war in Lebanon.

HEZBOLLAH REPORTEDLY THREATENS SUICIDE BOMBINGS
Earlier, Qassem had said in a statement, "We categorically reject direct negotiations with Israel, and those in power should know that their actions will not benefit Lebanon or themselves."

"These direct negotiations and their outcomes are as if they do not exist for us, and they do not concern us in the slightest," the terror chief added, saying "we will continue our defensive resistance for Lebanon and its people."

He said: "There are those who advocate surrender. They reap gains at the expense of the destruction of their brothers and families in Lebanon and the occupation of parts of Lebanon."

However,
man does not live by words alone, despite the fact that sometimes he has to eat them...
 he cautioned, "No matter how much the enemy threatens, we will not back down, we will not bow down, and we will not be defeated."

A Hezbollah source told the Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
-based al-Jazeera outlet that the group will return to using jacket wallahs in attacks against IDF troops, as it did when Israel previously held a buffer zone in southern Lebanon during the 1980s and 1990s.

"Large groups of suicide bombers are deployed in the occupied territory according to pre-prepared plans," said the unnamed source, referring to southern Lebanon.

Hezbollah kept up drone attacks throughout Monday, launching an explosive-laden drone at troops stationed in southern Lebanon, the IDF said. The military said the drone went kaboom! near the forces, but did not cause any injuries. In another incident, the military said it intercepted another Hezbollah drone that was launched at troops in southern Lebanon.

A similar drone attack killed an Israeli soldier and injured six others the day before.

"These are further violations of the ceasefire understandings by the Hezbollah terror organization," the army added.

The drone attacks also riled communities in northern Israel, with a suspected Hezbollah drone triggering sirens in the Western Galilee. The IDF said it lost contact with the "suspicious aerial target," indicating it crashed somewhere. A siren that sounded in the town of Arab al-Aramshe, warning of rocket fire, was activated due to fears of falling fragments following attempts to intercept the drone, according to the military.

Additional sirens warning of a drone attack in the Western Galilee that were activated several minutes later were false alarms, the IDF noted.

The terror group has made frequent use of small first-person view (FPV) drones in its attacks on Israeli troops. Some of the drones are guided using a spool of fiber-optic cable, which makes them immune to efforts to electronically jam their signal.

Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar told UN Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, that Hezbollah continues to violate the US-brokered ceasefire in Lebanon and is exploiting the presence of UN peacekeeping forces,, who was visiting Israel in efforts to facilitate the truce. These violations "undermine" Beirut’s interests, Sa’ar said on Monday, according to a readout from his office, adding that since the start of the US-Israeli campaign against Iran last month, the terror group has launched approximately 10,000 missiles, rockets, and drones at Israel.He added that many of these attacks were carried out near outposts of the United Nations
...a formerly good idea gone bad...
 Interim Force in Lebanon, saying "Hezbollah systematically places its operatives and military assets in close proximity to UNIFIL positions and exploits UNIFIL’s presence for hostile activity."

Sa’ar urged "action against these patterns of behavior," including for the Lebanese government to target Hezbollah through economic measures.

The IDF also gave updates on festivities the day before in southern Lebanon that came after the attack in which an Israeli soldier, Idan Fooks, was killed and six others were maimed by a Hezbollah dronezap.A drone launched by Hezbollah at troops of the Golani Brigade stationed in the region was successfully intercepted. In another incident, three Hezbollah operatives who were identified near troops were killed in airstrikes, the military said.

Additionally, the military said it struck several buildings used by Hezbollah, including one that served as the terror group’s "headquarters in the Bint Jbeil sector."

"Following the strikes, secondary explosions were identified, indicating the presence of weapons in the structures," the army said.

NORTHERN LEADERS DEFY HOME FRONT COMMAND, HALT STUDIES OVER HEZBOLLAH ATTACKS
Northern community leaders announced that they will halt school and impose independent security restrictions, defying Home Front Command guidelines, amid the persistent Hezbollah attacks.

Speaking at a presser in the northern border community of Shtula, the officials said that starting Tuesday, studies will be suspended across all border communities for at least 24 hours, after which the decision will be reassessed. They also declared that communities adjacent to the border would be classified as "orange," while others would be designated "yellow," mirroring the Home Front Command model — but implemented independently and without state backing.

Under the military’s color-coded system introduced during the war, "yellow" zones allow in-person schooling and limited gatherings if shelters are accessible, while "orange" zones prohibit educational activities and restrict gatherings, even when protected spaces are available.

The move came after Israel reimposed some restrictions in the north on Sunday, including canceling the mass Lag B’Omer pilgrimage set for next week, amid continued Hezbollah attacks despite the truce.

"We will not wait for a disaster before making life-saving decisions," said Moshe Davidovich, head of the Forum of Front-Line Communities. "We will not abandon our children or gamble with their lives."

Davidovich blasted the government’s classification of the area as "green" — which allows normal schooling — calling it "neglect" in light of ongoing threats.

"When the area is burning and UAVs are circling overhead, defining the region as ’green’ is not policy — it is neglect," he said. "We are taking responsibility for our children’s lives and moving the area to an ’orange’ designation."

He said that municipalities are demanding immediate fortification of all homes within nine kilometers (5.6 miles) of the border, "here and now, not to wait for the next war," along with compensation for businesses and farmers who were affected by the fighting.

Footage circulating online showed children in northern communities taking cover in shelters during a suspected Hezbollah drone attack earlier in the day.
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
UN official warns Iran poised to target water infrastructure in coming days
2026-03-23
[FoxNews] Kaveh Madani says knock-on effects on the world's economy will be 'both immediate and lasting' if conflict escalates further

Iran is poised to strike critical desalination infrastructure across the Middle East within days, escalating tensions with the U.S. and Israel and triggering global economic fallout, a U.N. official warned Sunday.

Kaveh Madani, an Iranian scientist and U.N. official, said desalination plants across the region could be hit "within the next few days," raising the prospect of a broader regional water crisis and affecting global markets.

The strike threats made by the regime on Sunday came in response to President Donald Trump's warning that the U.S. would hit Iranian power infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz was opened within 48 hours.

A spokesperson for the Central Headquarters of Hazrat Khatam al-Anbiya (PBUH) said, "Following previous warnings, if Iran’s fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked by the enemy, all energy, information technology, and desalination infrastructure belonging to the US and the regime in the region will be targeted."

"The desalination plants might be targeted again within the next few days," Madani told Fox News Digital.

"The driest region of the world might see a real water war, but the knock-on effects on the world’s economy, including the U.S., will be both immediate and lasting," Madani said, pointing to what he described as a "new phase in the conflict" involving such critical civilian infrastructure.

"Now, add the possibility of damage to the already fragile water infrastructure, including treatment plants, pumping stations, and distribution networks," he said. "The consequences would be catastrophic and lasting."

Kaveh’s warning comes as the conflict — now in its fourth week — has expanded beyond military targets. Desalination facilities, including a plant on Iran’s Qeshm Island and another in Bahrain, have allegedly already been struck.

Desalination, the process of creating drinkable water from seawater, is critical to supplying water across Israel and many of Iran’s Gulf neighbors, particularly in such arid regions where natural freshwater is scarce.

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, echoed the regime’s threats in a post on X on Sunday, warning that "critical infrastructure, energy, and oil across the region will be irreversibly destroyed, and oil prices will rise for a long time" if Iran’s power plants are struck.

"With a blackout, water treatment and distribution systems will also collapse in some parts of the country," Madani clarified.

"Iran will retaliate by attacking desalination, energy, and other energy-related infrastructure in all countries in the region that are parties to the war, including Israel," he added. "The price of oil and gas will increase further, and the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed, while a humanitarian disaster is created as millions of people lose access to water and electricity in the region."

"The U.S. has allegedly already attacked a desalination plant in Qeshm Island, and the Iranians have allegedly responded by striking a plant in Bahrain," he said.

"Iran is the least reliant on desalination plants, so it is explicitly including them as legitimate targets for retaliation because this is the biggest vulnerability of the other parties to the war across the Middle East," he added.

Despite that relative advantage, Iran itself has faced years of severe drought, mismanagement of water resources, and declining groundwater levels, leaving parts of the country increasingly water-stressed.

"If Iranians run out of water and/or electricity, they won’t rise up," Holly Dagres, Libitzky Family Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said.

"The unfortunate truth is that the Islamic Republic would rather allow the country to burn than appear weak while it is facing an existential threat," she said.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Abbas signs decree seen aimed at barring Hamas from participating in local elections
2026-01-28
[IsraelTimes] Amendment to election law requires all candidates to sign pledge accepting PLO ‘national program,’ which includes recognizing Israel, two-state solution and renouncing terror

Paleostinian Authority President the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas
...aka Abu Mazen, a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial. While no Yasser Arafat, he has his own brand of evil, just a little more lowercase....>
 has signed a decree that will likely prevent Hamas
..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
 and other like-minded factions from participating in PA municipal elections slated for April.

The election law amendment announced on Tuesday by the PA’s central election committee will require all candidates to sign a statement accepting the Paleostine Liberation Organization’s "national program" — an apparent reference to the PLO’s resolutions, which include the recognition of Israel, the renunciation of terrorism and the pursuit of a two-state solution.

Hamas, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Paleostine and other Israeli- and US-designated terror groups seeking to participate in the Paleostinian political system have long refused to accept those PLO policies.

Analysts speculated that Abbas was motivated by a desire to prevent rival Hamas from gaining more of a foothold in the West Bank and ensuring that the PA won’t be exposed to punitive measures due to international sanctions against Hamas, PFLP and Paleostinian Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
"I think Abbas is quite worried that Hamas’s stocks are rising and that Hamas might be positioned for a good showing in Paleostinian politics," former PA official Ghaith al-Omari told The Times of Israel.

"This is also about the PA sending a message to the international community and the Americans in particular that, ’We are on your side,'" said Omari, who is currently a senior research fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

While the amendment only applies to municipal elections, Omari speculated that it would likely set a precedent that Abbas would seek to apply to the parliamentary and presidential elections.

Abbas has branded 2026 as "the year of Paleostinian democracy," though dates for those elections have not been set, and the 90-year-old is in the 21st year of what was supposed to be a four-year term.

Given that written commitment to PLO policies was not a requirement in previous municipal elections, Paleostinian analyst Ibrahim Dalalsha said the amendment reflects the post-October 7 reality, with Abbas recognizing that there is little international appetite for Hamas and its rejectionist approach to the conflict.

Dalalsha — who heads the Horizon Center research group and used to serve as an adviser at the since-shuttered US Consulate in Jerusalem — said the amendment will likely spark a degree of pushback from civil society groups over freedom of expression concerns, but that is not likely to sideline the process.

With Hamas
..the braying voice of Islamic ResistanceÂź,...
 unlikely to participate, the April 25 election is slated to largely feature candidates from Abbas’s Fatah party as well as hopefuls from a series of independent slates.

In addition to the 420 municipal bodies in the West Bank slated to hold votes, the PA central election committee is also aiming to put on a local election in the central Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
city of Deir al-Balah.

The step is aimed at demonstrating that Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
 and the West Bank can operate under a single political system, something Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government — which opposes a two-state solution — has sought to undermine. Voting in Deir al-Balah will likely require cooperation with the National Government for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG) — the panel of Paleostinian technocrats set to replace Hamas in Gaza at the oversight of US President Donald Trump
...So far he's been unkillable, and they've tried....
...Oh, noze! Not him!...
’s Board of Peace.

The last Paleostinian municipal election was held in multiple rounds in 2021 and 2022. Abbas last announced national and presidential elections in 2021 but later canceled them. He claimed the decision was due to Israel’s refusal to allow polling places in East Jerusalem, but critics said the move was more motivated by fears of Hamas gains.

While the municipal elections will offer Paleostinians a rare opportunity to take part in a democratic political process, Dalalsha said the more significant development for Paleostinian national politics will take place in May, when the Fatah party holds its eighth General Conference. During the conference, a vote will be held to fill the party’s powerful central committee, with many of Abbas’s confidants vying for spots.
Related:
Mahmoud Abbas 01/22/2026 Former Palestinian official accuses Palestinian Authority of institutional corruption
Mahmoud Abbas 12/31/2025 PLO hands over fifth batch of heavy weapons at Ain al-Hilweh refugee camp
Mahmoud Abbas 12/28/2025 Hamas said set to soon elect new leader, with pro-Iran candidate Hayya likely to win

Link


Home Front: WoT
US labels Muslim Brotherhood branches in Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan as terror organizations
2026-01-14
[IsraelTimes] Washington accuses brotherhood branches of collaborating with Hamas and Hezbollah; Egypt, where fundamentalist group was born, praises move against ‘extremist ideology’

The United States on Tuesday designated the Egyptian, Lebanese and Jordanian branches of the Moslem BrĂŒderbund as global terrorists, citing in part what it called their support for the Hamas
..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
 terror group.

The move, which Washington formally set in motion last November, will bring sanctions against one of the Arab world’s oldest and most influential Islamist movements.

The State Department designated the Lebanese branch a foreign terrorist organization, the most severe of the labels, which makes it a criminal offense to provide material support to the group. The Jordanian and Egyptian branches were listed by Treasury as specially designated global gunnies for providing support to Hamas.

"These designations reflect the opening actions of an ongoing, sustained effort to thwart Moslem BrĂŒderbund chapters’ violence and destabilization wherever it occurs," Secretary of State Marco Rubio
...The diminutive 13-year-old Republican U.S. Senator from Florida, Secretary of State in the second Trump administration...
 said in a statement. "The United States will use all available tools to deprive these Moslem BrĂŒderbund chapters of the resources to engage in or support terrorism."

The designations mean that the United States will block any assets by the Moslem BrĂŒderbund in the world’s largest economy and criminalize transactions with its groups.

The move also severely impedes members’ ability to travel to the United States.

Egypt’s foreign ministry welcomed the move, describing it as a "crucial step that reflects the gravity of the group and its Death Eater ideology and what it represents as a direct threat of regional and international security and stability."

Founded in 1928 in Egypt, the pan-Islamist movement once spread across the Arab world, but it has been in retreat as it comes under concerted pressure from major Arab powers.

The movement rose to power in its native Egypt democratically through the 2012 election of Mohammed Morsi following the overthrow of longtime ruler Hosni Mubarak
...The former President-for-Life of Egypt, dumped by popular demand in early 2011...
, who had imposed a ban on the Moslem BrĂŒderbund, even though some of its activities were tolerated, including its network of social services.

Morsi was deposed in 2013 in a coup by then-military chief Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who has since pursued a sweeping crackdown against the Moslem BrĂŒderbund.

Egypt, as well as US-allied monarchies Saudi Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula, largely made up of sand and oil rigs. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual haj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. Formerly dictatorial and steeped in Olde Tyme Religion, deferring to Salafist holy men on all issues, it has now done a 180 and is making a serious effort to modernize, so as not to be left in the sand by its Gulf Arab neighbors. The holy men have been shoved to the background and the nation is now still dictatorial but somewhat rational. That doesn't make them trustworthy, but it's a start...
 and the United Arab Emirates, have long sought to suppress the Moslem BrĂŒderbund, whose vision calls for the creation of a unified Islamic caliphate.

TARGETING LINKS WITH HAMAS
The Trump administration designated the groups in part on the basis of their support for Hamas.

The Treasury Department said that the Egyptian and Jordanian branches of the brotherhood both have coordinated with Hamas, whose massive October 7, 2023, attack on Israel triggered an overwhelming Israeli offensive into Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
The State Department said that in Leb
...home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade....
, the Moslem BrĂŒderbund, a Sunni Moslem movement, had allied itself with the Hezbollah terror group in firing rockets into Israel.

The Lebanese Moslem BrĂŒderbund has "pushed for a more formal alignment with the Hizballah-Hamas axis," the State Department said.

The Moslem BrĂŒderbund had gained strength in Jordan, where its political wing is the main opposition party in parliament.

In April last year, Jordan banned the Moslem BrĂŒderbund, ordering confiscation of its assets, after accusing the movement of stockpiling weapons and planning to destabilize the kingdom, which has a peace agreement with Israel.

In recent years, US conservatives have also seized upon the Moslem BrĂŒderbund, with some spreading the unfounded conspiracy theory that the organization is infiltrating the US government with a goal of imposing Islamic sharia law.

Republican politicians have repeatedly sought a ban on the Moslem BrĂŒderbund, hoping to cut off any financing for the movement.

The US had held off on the designation in part out of concern about jeopardizing ties with The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
, whose president, His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
, has a deep and longstanding ideological affinity with the Moslem BrĂŒderbund.

Trump has a generally positive relationship with Erdogan and has also played down the Ottoman Turkish leader’s fierce criticism of Israel’s offensive in Gaza, which was sparked by Hamas’s October 7, 2023, massacre of southern communities.

Counterterrorism expert and Washington Institute for Near East Policy scholar Matthew Levitt told The Times of Israel he was surprised that only the Lebanese branch was branded a Foreign Terrorist Organization, while the Jordanian and Egyptian chapters were spared from that most severe label. "But there are lots of reasons for that having to do with quality of intelligence that the US has against them to other diplomatic considerations."

"It remains to be seen if this is a one-off, or the first in the tranche of similar actions," he added.

Saudi Arabia’s response, courtesy of 3dc:
[X]


Egypt also approves. See here.
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Human interest:With Iran’s regime wary of widespread dissent, Tehran women let their hair down
2025-11-30
[IsraelTimes] On first visit to Iran’s capital since 2022 anti-hijab protests, AP reporter sees women openly flout headscarf laws; discontent with theocracy, fears of another war also widespread

As you enter Iran’s capital, it starts with only occasional glimpses — a passenger in a car speeding by or a pedestrian trying to leapfrog through Tehran’s notorious traffic.

But as you reach the cooler heights of Tehran’s northern neighborhoods along the city’s sycamore-lined Vali-e Asr Street, they are almost everywhere, women with their brown, black, blonde and gray locks.

More and more, Iranian women choose to forgo the country’s mandatory headscarf, or hijab.

It was something unthinkable just a few years ago in the Islamic Theocratic Republic, whose conservative Shiite holy mans and hardline politicians long pushed for strict enforcement of laws requiring women to cover their hair.

But the 2022 death of Mahsa Amini and the nationwide protests that followed enraged women of all ages and views in a way few other issues have since the country’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

"When I moved to Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
in 1999, letting a single strand of hair show would immediately prompt someone to tell me to tuck it back under my headscarf out of fear of the morality police taking me away," said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. "To see where Iran is today feels unimaginable: Women and girls openly defying mandatory hijab."

"Authorities are overwhelmed by the sheer numbers across the country and worry that if they crack down — at a delicate time marked by power blackouts, water shortages, and a rotten economy — they could spur Iranians to return to the streets," she said.

FIRST TRIP TO IRAN IN YEARS
I received a three-day visa from the government to attend a summit addressed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi as tensions remain high over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Access to reporting beyond the summit was limited, but the trip gave me my first look on the ground in Iran since my last visits in 2018 and 2019.

In those intervening years, I had watched from abroad in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, in my role overseeing the News Agency that Dare Not be Named’s coverage of Iran and the Gulf Arab states as Iran was roiled by protests over the economy and Amini’s death, the coronavirus (aka COVID19 or Chinese Plague)

...the twenty first century equivalent of bubonic plague, only instead of killing off a third of the population of Europe it kills 3.4 percent of those who notice they have it. It seems to be fond of the elderly, especially Iranian politicians and holy men...
 pandemic and a 12-day war with Israel in June.

For the past 46 years, Iran’s rulers have imposed the hijab rule. At the strictest times, the police and the Basij, the all-volunteer force of the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, kept a close eye on women in the streets to ensure compliance.

Whenever the atmosphere felt laxer, many women pushed their scarves further and further back on their heads — small challenges to the government as to how much hair you could get away with showing. But they rarely dared to remove it.

MORE WOMEN CHOOSING TO GO WITHOUT THE HIJAB
Working remotely with my AP colleagues in Iran, I knew from their reporting, photographs and video footage from the streets on even unrelated assignments that women had begun to drop the hijab completely.

But I didn’t fully understand the scale of that refusal until I saw it myself.

Around Tajrish Square, at the foot of Tehran’s Alborz Mountains, one group of maiden of tender yearss who are required to wear the hijab to school immediately removed them after leaving in the afternoon. They darted between cars, idling through traffic, laughing and carrying art projects.

Women of all ages went uncovered at the Tajrish Bazaar and walking past the blue-tile domes of the Imamzadeh Saleh shrine.

Two coppers on the street talked among themselves as the women passed by unremarked.

At the luxury Espinas Palace Hotel, multiple women with their hair uncovered walked past the signs reading, "Please observe the Islamic hijab," with the black-and-white outline of a woman in hijab.

A foreign diplomat’s wife attended a dinner for the summit without one. An Iranian woman in attendance briefly put one over her head while in discussion with a hotel staff member, then let it fall fully to her shoulders a moment later.

Those sights were in northern Tehran, an affluent area that is generally more liberal.

But even in a more conservative southern district, an uncovered woman walked quickly down the street among others in the all-encompassing black chador.

"All of my life I had to wear hijab, at school, at university, everywhere in public," one Iranian woman who recently emigrated to Canada told me after I returned to Dubai, speaking on condition of anonymity
... for fear of being murdered...
 for fear of reprisal. "I always tried to follow the rules but it made me feel a lack of confidence... because I wore the hijab and I didn’t believe in that."

Signs of the war with Israel in June could be seen too. I saw one apartment building, its top-floor apartment still in ruins from an Israeli strike.

DISSATISFACTION SIMMERS UNDER THE SURFACE
Hardliners within Iran’s theocracy repeatedly have called for increased enforcement of the hijab laws. Iran’s reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has pushed to halt that, saying in September in an interview with NBC News that "human beings have a right to choose."

Iran’s 86-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
...the very aged actual dictator of Iran, successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini...>
, has so far left the hijab issue alone after this year’s war, which also saw the United States bomb Iranian nuclear enrichment sites.

Also on hold is any change to Iran’s government-subsidized gasoline prices, among the cheapest in the world, despite increasing economic pressure on the country as its rial currency trades at over 1 million to USD$1.

The reason likely rests in the widespread dissatisfaction of Iran’s people with its theocracy at the moment. Previous government actions on both issues led to nationwide protests and security force crackdowns that killed hundreds and saw thousands detained.

In recent days, Pezeshkian’s social affairs adviser Mohammad-Javad Javadi-Yeganeh acknowledged data from an unpublished survey by the state-linked Iranian Students Polling Agency.

The polling reportedly suggested widespread discontent with the government, something not previously acknowledged by officials who have repeatedly contended that the country came together during the 12-day war. Fear of another war breaking out permeates conversations across Tehran.

"When we visit provinces, we see in surveys that people are discontent about the administration," Pezeshkian recently said, without directly acknowledging the polling. "We are answerable since we cannot provide services to people."

The polling tracks with widespread voter discontent and a low turnout during last year’s initial presidential vote.

"Years of economic hardship, inflation, currency volatility, unemployment and public frustration over environmental and social challenges have sharply eroded trust in institutions," the Washington-based National Iranian American Council said in an analysis about the reported polling data.

Yet the worry of a renewed government crackdown persists for a population exhausted by the grind of international sanctions and the widespread fear that another war with Israel will come.

"Sometimes that fear is with me," the Iranian woman living in Canada said. "Sometimes when I’m behind the wheel, I try to find my headscarf on my head. That fear is still with me."

Related: Leaked video of Khamenei aide’s daughter in low-cut bridal gown lifts Iran’s veil of piety
Related:
Headscarf 10/27/2025 Houthis release Ethiopian-Yemeni model after five years in prison
​

Headscarf 10/18/2025 Parliament of Portugal has voted in favor of banning the burka in public spaces.
Headscarf 09/19/2025 Ukrainian, 19, 'is caught disguised as a granny while attempting to assassinate Russian defence official'

Related:
Hijab 11/15/2025 Iran employing ‘calibrated concessions’ as it deepens political crackdown on dissent
Hijab 11/10/2025 Who Is Bankrolling Mamdani? Linda Sarsour Tells All
Hijab 10/30/2025 Cuomo far ahead of Mamdani among Jewish voters — poll

Link


Arabia
Media reports preparations for ground operation against Houthis in Yemen
2025-04-07
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Opponents of the Yemeni Ansar Allah movement (Houthis) are preparing a ground military operation that could be supported by Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Not by American troops, one hopes.
This was reported on April 6 by the American television channel CNN, citing sources.
CNN? Quite possibly there is no need for the Yemenis to worry about invasion, though continued air raids appear a sure thing.
Such a military operation could begin from the south and east, as well as along the coastline, and could be supported by Saudi and US naval forces, they said.

"Whether such an operation is feasible remains unclear, as the past decade has shown mixed results, with successes in some areas and failures in others," said Ahmed Nagy, a leading analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

It is not yet clear whether forces loyal to Yemen's recognized government will be able to fight the Houthis, said Michael Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

He specified that the internationally recognized government based in Aden, southern Yemen, is supported in the fight against the Houthis primarily by the UAE, which could provide “quiet support” in the event of a ground operation.

As reported by Regnum News Agency, the US Army launched a large-scale operation against the Houthis in Yemen on March 15, during which strikes were carried out on the western regions of the country. Later, on March 22, during a missile strike by US aircraft on the Hodeidah International Airport in western Yemen, the Houthi naval commander Mansour al-Saadi was wounded. In addition, at least seven more members of Ansar Allah were injured.

On April 4, the Houthis launched another attack on the US aircraft carrier Harry Truman and other US Navy ships in the Red Sea. Later, on April 6, Ansar Allah again attacked the Harry Truman and its escort ships.
That is to say, the Houthis launched things in the general direction of the sea, piously trusting Allah to effect an intersection with the American ships, were that indeed his will. As it turned out — as always — it was not.

Link


Home Front: Politix
Eric Trager reportedly tapped for Mideast slot on Trump’s National Security Council
2025-01-09
[IsraelTimes] Eric Trager, a Republican staffer on the Senate Armed Services Committee, will reportedly become the next White House National Security Council senior director for the Middle East and North Africa.

Trager, who previously worked at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, will replace Brett McGurk, who played a massive role in crafting outgoing US President Joe Biden’s Mideast policy, Jewish Insider reports.
A "Total Success"...
Trager has staked out hawkish foreign policy positions regarding the Middle East with his research focusing on Egypt and the Muslim Brotherhood.
Related:
Eric Trager 09/19/2013 Muslim Brotherhood Official, Former Clinton Foundation Employee Arrested

Eric Trager 08/16/2013 Totten interview: The Truth About Egypt
Eric Trager 07/03/2013 Morsi, BrĂžderbĂŒnd prepare 'defense' force
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Defanged but still dangerous, Hezbollah will try to regain its bite, experts predict
2025-01-08
[IsraelTimes] Focused for now on reconstructing Lebanon and rebuilding support, the terror group will also seek to reconstitute its arsenal in hopes of fighting Israel another day

As a fragile 60-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah approaches its end, the expectation that the prevailing calm along the Lebanese border will continue and transform into a long-term detente is suddenly being challenged by tough talk from both sides.
It’s a hudna — that’s to be expected.
In Israel, officials are concerned that the terror group is not pulling out of southern Leb
...The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. Only one of those statements is an exaggeration....
, and that the Lebanese Armed Forces, or LAF, which is supposed to move in, is moving too slowly to take over control of the area by the January 26 deadline. On Sunday, Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that the Israel Defense Forces could be "forced to act" in response, and some in the military are apparently preparing for the possibility that the army could remain deployed north of the border beyond the 60-day deadline.

In the meantime, the IDF is continuing to carry out strikes against Hezbollah operatives and infrastructure in south Lebanon, accusing Hezbollah of repeatedly violated the terms of the agreement.

On the Hezbollah side, the Iran-backed group’s new leader Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
 threatened in a Saturday speech that its "patience may run out" with Israeli behavior even before the end of the 60-day withdrawal period.

The comments have sparked worries that the deal could fall apart sooner rather than later, sending US special envoy Amos Hochstein back to Beirut in a bid to get the deal back on track.

But even if Qassem wanted to make good on his threat, it remains unclear what kind of actions the Shiite terror group would be able to undertake once its "patience" runs out, with its leadership largely decapitated and its rocket and missile stock reportedly reduced by at least 80%.

"Hezbollah is in an extremely unenviable position," Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt told The Times of Israel by phone recently. "It’s on life support right now."

"The Axis of Resistance¼ stood [on] a three-legged stool of Hezbollah, Syria and Iran. Two of those legs don’t exist anymore," said Levitt, who is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former FBI counterterrorism expert.

However,
ars longa, vita brevis...
 there are multiple indications that the terror group has only been temporarily deterred, and could resume fighting if it is allowed to reconstitute its arsenal. The process will also involve rebuilding its base in Lebanon by helping stabilize and reconstruct the country after bringing about widespread destruction and turmoil at the service of a foreign entity, angering many Lebanese.

In a December 14 speech, Qassem indicated that the group’s agenda moving forward was to focus on domestic Lebanese issues, namely "the implementation of the agreement south of the Litani River, reconstruction, the election of a head of state on January 9, and positive dialogue on the problematic issues."

The political crisis has been particularly daunting. The country has been without a president for over two years, chiefly due to Hezbollah’s political arm insisting on elevating its candidate, Sleiman Frangieh, though he lacks the support of other political parties.

"Hezbollah understands that the country is already quite angry and quite worried, especially with the fall of the [neighboring] Assad regime. There is now a regime in Syria that hates Hezbollah. Hezbollah doesn’t want another civil war. It doesn’t have the support that it had before," Levitt said. "It will fight to protect its position."

While the ceasefire agreement — backed by international guarantors — may keep Hezbollah from regrouping in areas south of the Litani River, from which it poses the most direct threat to Israel, there is no reason to think the terror group will lay down its weapons or desist from regrouping militarily anywhere else in the country; renouncing its arsenal would imply losing clout and power, and ultimately its raison d’ĂȘtre.

And despite Western backing and funding, Lebanon’s military has yet to actively confront the terror group or seize its weapons as far as is known.

Earlier this month, four sources briefed on updated US intelligence told Rooters that the Iran-backed Lebanese terror group will likely try to rebuild its arms and forces, allowing it to once again pose a long-term threat to Israel.

"If the LAF goes after Hezbollah in a way that makes it feel threatened, then Hezbollah will open fire against them," David Daoud, a Lebanon expert at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank. "But there has not been a single move against them. So Hezbollah will try and get what it wants quietly, through political means. The resistance prefers the path of least resistance."

THE DANGER FOR ISRAEL HAS NOT SUBSIDED
Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah began in earnest in mid-September, when thousands of the group’s pagers and walkie-talkies booby-trapped by Israel went kaboom!.

The operation followed nearly a year of almost-daily rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel starting on October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah, unprovoked, began firing at Israel in support of fellow Iran-backed terror group Hamas
..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
, which a day earlier had stormed southern Israel to kill some 1,200 people and take 251 hostages, starting the war in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
But while the autumn 2024 offensive saw Israel take out much of the group’s rocket arsenal and command and control structure, it has not been completely defanged.

"In terms of the threat to Israel, [Hezbollah] has become more of a traditional terrorist organization," said Levitt. "They can still do a cross-border raid. They will try to move material south of the demarcation line. At some point in the not-too-distant future, they can still shoot a rocket. They can certainly carry out attacks abroad."

"Those are very dangerous things that are not to be minimized. But they are nothing like the full-scale rocket and missile threat that Hezbollah posed before," he added.

Consequently, the IDF will need to remain vigilant even after the 60-day truce during which it is allowed to remain on Lebanese territory, and to continue targeting Hezbollah operatives violating the late November ceasefire agreement.

"Israel is not going to be expected to sit back and watch as enemies begin to prepare over time to be able to strike at Israeli civilians again," Levitt said.

Israel also does not have the luxury of complacency based on the fact that the new Syrian regime helmed by rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa is hostile to Hezbollah and Iran.

Sharaa and his government are currently bent on gaining international legitimacy, but the new regime’s overstretched security forces will need time to extend their control over the whole of Syria’s territory. In the meantime, Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as StĂŒrmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or FĂŒhrer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
is expected to exploit the power vacuum in parts of the country to attempt to smuggle weapons to its Lebanese proxy, according to Mike Knights, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and an expert on Iran-backed militias

"Although the collapse of Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Leveler of Latakia...
’s regime is certainly encouraging, this does not mean its former patron Iran will simply give up on using Syria as a corridor for reconstituting Hezbollah next door in Lebanon," Knights wrote in a recent analysis. "Quite the opposite: Iranian arms smuggling has historically thrived in collapsed or weak state environments."

"As Syria presumably reopens post-Assad, it will see an influx of people, vehicles, money, humanitarian aid, reconstruction supplies, and consumer goods, much of it via truck transport from neighboring states. Iran could easily use this influx to reconstitute both Hezbollah and its proxy factions in Syria," Knights wrote.

HEZBOLLAH’S DOMESTIC BASE STILL PERSISTS, ALBEIT ERODED
While many Lebanese have raised their voice against Hezbollah’s military adventures and for dragging the country into a destructive war, popular support for the terror group has not completely eroded, particularly among Shiites, who make up about a third of the country’s population of over 5 million.

An Arab Barometer survey conducted between February and April 2024 found that 85% of Lebanon’s Shiites have "quite a bit or a great deal of trust in Hezbollah," while only nine percent of Sunnis and six percent of Christians expressed the same sentiment.

Scenes of Lebanese waving Hezbollah flags in jubilation after the ceasefire suggest that base may still be solid.

"Hezbollah is at the weakest it’s ever been, but finishing it off requires a ’final squeeze’ from within Lebanon — and that’s not going to happen," said Daoud, pointing to images of displaced Shiites returning to their homes in Hezbollah strongholds hailing the "resistance" and its slain leader His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
...The late, lamented satrap of the Medes and the Persians in Leb...>
"They still have a bit of breathing room in which they can learn to maneuver," he added.

One of the tools with which Hezbollah has managed to attract and maintain a vast base among Shiites is through financial assistance. While the terror group’s finances were hard hit in the war — branches of its bank al-Qard al-Hassan were targeted in IDF Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s — Hezbollah still has liquidity at its disposal.

In early December, Qassem said the terror group had paid more than $50 million in cash to families affected by the war, almost all of them Shiites, giving out $300 and $400 per person. He said the group planned to pay out more than $77 million in total, plus lump sums between $4,000 and $8,000 to those whose primary homes were destroyed.

The payments would be financed mainly by Iran, he added.
Can Iran afford it?
In the upcoming reconstruction phase, Hezbollah will also be able to draw from foreign contributions made to Lebanon’s state coffers, and will receive donations from the Shiite Lebanese diaspora abroad, Daoud predicted.

In addition, Hezbollah will continue to play a prominent role in Lebanese politics as a legitimate political party. It still sits in the government and still has 15 members of parliament (13 from its ranks and two independent Hezbollah supporters), and maintains alliances with other political factions.

In 2022, the last time Lebanon held an election, Hezbollah and pro-Hezbollah independents received over 356,000 votes, more than any other party.

"Other political forces cannot just tell a party that got that many votes, from the sect that is Lebanon’s largest and fastest growing, that ’we don’t want to listen to you,'" Daoud said.

While Hezbollah attempts to repair its reputation and mend ties with its domestic allies, Israel will need to stay vigilant, watching the group’s movements and preventing any attempt at reconstituting its military capabilities, the expert said.

"Lebanon is giving them time to rest and relax. And that’s that’s the scary part. The more time they have, the more they can rearm and go back to where we were," Daoud said. "So what Israel should do is not let them rest and relax."
See? Hudna.
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Can Syria’s dwindling Christian community survive under jihadi rebel rule?
2024-12-15
[IsraelTimes] Once loyal to the regime, Syrian Christians have ostensibly joined the national celebration after the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. But can they trust the new Islamist rulers’ pledges?

The lightning power grab by the Sunni jihadi group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
 (HTS) in Syria has raised concerns about the fate of the Christian minority in the country.

Numbering 1.5 million before the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, Christians made up about 10 percent of the Syrian population. Within the span of a decade, their numbers dwindled dramatically, and in 2022, there were only 300,000 left, or about 2% of the current population of Syria, according to a report by the US-based NGO "Aid to Church in Need."

Traditionally wealthier and more educated than the average Syrian population, Christians emigrated en masse to escape persecution by ISIS, but also to flee Syria’s spiraling economic situation.

The new HTS leaders have repeatedly reassured Syrians and the international community that it will protect all minorities — which also include Shiites, Alawites, Druze, Kurds and others — and the new Prime Minister Mohammed al-Bashir has urged millions of Syrian refugees abroad to return home, vowing "the rights of all people and all sects in Syria" will be guaranteed.

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 it remains to be seen whether the country will once again become a tolerant, pluralistic place as its new leaders claim. Concern for the fate of Syria’s millennia-long Christian presence has been recently expressed by the Washington DC-based NGO In Defense of Christians.

In a statement issued after the rebels’ capture of Aleppo two weeks ago, IDC quoted sources in Aleppo saying that Christians were "living in fear" and had been the "target of widespread crime and vandalism."

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 Christian residents of Aleppo were recently interviewed by the Center for Peace Communications, a New York nonprofit, on the occasion of the Festival of Saint Barbara, a celebration observed by Middle East Christians. They said that they were afraid for the first two or three days after the HTS takeover, but now feel they do not have any reason to be concerned, and churches are operating normally.

During the 13 years of the civil war, Christians largely remained loyal to the Assad regime, which portrayed itself as a secular defender of religious minorities. Christians didn’t actively take action to support the regime, such as organizing armed militias to defend it, said Syrian analyst Hazem Alghabra, a former Senior Advisor to the US Department of State who runs a Washington DC-based Middle East security consultancy.

"For the most part, [Christians] were afraid. They were concerned about the Islamist elements of the Syrian uprising — and that is hard to ignore. But also, they repeated the regime messaging that anybody who stood up against the regime was an Islamist terrorist," Damascus-born Alghabra told The Times of Israel. He noted that describing them as regime supporters today, after the ousting of Bashir al-Assad, would "amount to an insult."

REBELS RETURN CONFISCATED CHRISTIAN PROPERTY
Like most other Syrians, Christians appeared elated at the fall of the brutal dictatorship. Bahjat Karakach, a Franciscan friar who serves as Aleppo’s Latin-rite parish priest, told Vatican News this week that Christians had been "completely exhausted by living under the regime" due to the economic hardships.

The holy man also noted that over the past years, rebels had shown increased tolerance to Christians, and returned confiscated property. In the Idlib area, controlled by HTS for the past decade, Christians had reportedly been allowed to continue practicing their faith.

Archbishop Hanna Jallouf, Apostolic Vicar of Aleppo, told Vatican News that he had met with HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa, who had given him "assurances that Christians and their possessions will not be touched, and that [the murderous Moslems] will meet all our legitimate requests."

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 in 2015, al-Sharaa, back then known only by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Julani, said in a prescient interview with Al Jazeera that once the group took control of all of Syria, it would impose shari’a law over the country.

Christians, as "people of the book," would enjoy a privileged status and be allowed to practice their faith, the jihadi leader said, but per Islamic law, they would be obligated to pay the per capita jizya tax — even though HTS at the time was not imposing it in the areas it controlled.

At the time, al-Julani said that a different fate awaited other religious minorities in Syria, such as Alawites and Druze, whose doctrines originated from Islam centuries ago but then departed from Moslem Orthodoxy. Those two groups would have to "correct their doctrinal mistakes and embrace Islam," Julani said.

In 2013, two years prior to the interview, the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s Syrian branch that al-Julani led at the time, kidnapped 13 nuns amid fighting with regime forces. They were freed three months later after Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
 agreed to pay the kidnappers $16 million.

Today, al-Julani appears to eschew those fundamentalist positions. He renounced ties to al-Qaeda in 2016 and now depicts himself as a champion of pluralism and tolerance.

In recent days, the insurgency leader dropped his nom de guerre and began referring to him by his real name, Ahmad al-Sharaa. He shed his garb as a hardline Islamist guerrilla and put on suits for press interviews, talking of building state institutions and decentralizing power to reflect Syria’s diversity.

SALVATION IN THE EYE OF THE BEHOLDER?
The transitional government appointed on Tuesday only includes members from the HTS administration of Idlib, known as the "Salvation Government," and no representatives from secular rebel factions or religious groups other than Sunni Moslems.

"The concerns are not exclusive to Christians. They are also shared by the average moderate Sunni population," Alghabra told The Times of Israel. "If we end up with a Taliban
...Arabic for students...
-style governance in Syria, then Christians will be targeted first, but down the line, moderate Sunnis will be targeted as well."

HTS’s experience ruling the Idlib area over the past years could provide an indicator for its future behavior governing the country.

Aaron Zelin, Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said in a recent interview with La Belle France 24 that HTS’s rule in Idlib was "an authoritarian governance model, not quite as bad as the totalitarianism of the Assad regime. It wasn’t a liberal democracy by any stretch of the imagination." But the Islamist group had apparently abandoned any aspirations for "global jihad," Zelin noted.

In a recent article, Zelin said that Christians in those areas were treated as second-class citizens, as they were not represented in the local government, the General Shura Council, and their interests were dealt with by a "Directorate of Minority Affairs."

La Belle France24 journalist Wassim Nasr visited Idlib in 2023 and reported that the few hundred Christians who remained in the region were allowed to hold masses, but not to display crosses or ring church bells.

Syrian analyst Alghabra remained optimistic that once HTS becomes the internationally recognized government of Syria, it will have to make compromises and show more openness.

"In Idlib, HTS did not have to deal with the concerns of the international community," Alghabra said. "It will need technical support, aid, fuel, a lot of things. So the international community’s approach will need to be transactional. HTS will have to allow every religious group to practice unobstructedly in order to get outside help."

[X]
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Lebanon’s Shiites increasingly reject role of scapegoat in Hezbollah’s war on Israel
2024-11-27
[IsraelTimes] Over 1.4 million Lebanese from Hezbollah’s support base have fled their homes. And while the terror group attempts to retain their loyalty, some are calling for its demise

Ahmad Yassine, a Lebanese Shiite commentator with a large following on the social media platform X, wrote last Thursday that Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
, signaled the group’s capitulation as a military force in his latest address last week.

"It was clear to anyone who heard the pre-recorded speech that it was a declaration of complete surrender," Yassine wrote. "Hezbollah has fallen, all it has to do now is announce the date of the funeral," he wrote.

While Yassine’s remarks accord with the group’s heavily diminished military capabilities and decimated leadership, not everyone within Hezbollah’s Shiite support base shares his conclusion — despite bearing the brunt of Israel’s ongoing escalation against the Iran-backed organization.

Over 1.4 million people — nearly a quarter of Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
’s population — have fled their homes since Hezbollah initiated hostilities against Israel on October 8, 2023, according to recent figures published by the UN quoting Lebanese government data.

The overwhelming majority of those currently displaced fled after Israel escalated strikes two months ago, targeting largely Shiite Hezbollah strongholds across southern Lebanon, the eastern Beqaa Valley, and Beirut’s Dahiyeh district. In the first 11 months of the conflict that Hezbollah instigated, approximately 110,000 Lebanese had evacuated.

Lebanese citizens fleeing southern villages amid Israeli Moslem — has stressed the importance of maintaining "civil peace," and even Hezbollah’s rivals, including the Christian Lebanese Forces
A Christian political party founded by Bashir Gemayel, who was then bumped off when he was elected president of Leb...
 party, have largely complied by moderating their political rhetoric and urging supporters not to stoke tensions, the danger on the ground remains.

Residents recently told Rooters that conflict often centers around schools that have welcomed displaced people. Hezbollah-allied parties are said to have seized control of who comes and goes and what enters some of those institutions.

Sectarian tensions have resurfaced regularly in recent years, and some analysts have already warned of a possible outbreak of a new civil war.

Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, recently told The Times of Israel that as the terror group loses ground on the battlefield, it may resort to using guns to maintain its grip over Lebanon.

Some pundits have warned that a marginalization of Hezbollah from the Lebanese political scene after it is defanged militarily could have strong repercussions on Hezbollah’s Shiite support base.

"The community is traumatized, dislocated, and heavily armed, without a leader capable of controlling the widespread resentment and humiliation Shiites must feel as the only community targeted by Israel," wrote Michael Young, a Beirut-based Lebanon expert for the Carnegie Endowment, in a recent commentary.

"Hezbollah will spread a narrative that they [Lebanese politicians] exploited the Israeli onslaught to once again marginalize Shiites, and this message will allow Hezbollah to absorb and redirect internally the anger many in the community must feel for having lost everything," he added.

GROWING DISCONTENT WITH HEZBOLLAH AMONG SOME SHIITES
Hezbollah has positioned itself as the defender of Shiites, capitalizing on the community’s anger and vulnerability to maintain loyalty.

However,
death is not the end. There remains the litigation over the estate...
 prominent voices within the Shiite community are challenging the terror group’s authority, echoing the criticism of several Lebanese Christian leaders.

Prominent Lebanese Shia holy man Ali al-Amin, a longstanding thorn in the side of Hezbollah, has consistently called for the terror group to disarm and hand control to the Lebanese state.

In a recent interview with the Saudi al-Arabiya channel, al-Amin argued that Hezbollah is a permanent threat to stability, and its actions have endangered Lebanon without benefiting Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
In a video address on November 14 published on his website, the holy man praised Lebanon as a "model of coexistence based on openness and tolerance among the various religious groups," and condemned "those who took advantage of the weakness of the Lebanese state to establish mini-states."

"As long as there are weapons outside the control of the state, there will always be unrest," he said.
Link


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Hezbollah’s military is weakened, but its civil branches are deeply embedded in Lebanon
2024-10-31
[IsraelTimes] Terror group likely to feel pinch after strikes on banking arm, but its network of charities is too entrenched in Lebanon’s Shiite community to be extracted easily, expert says

Last week, Israel’s military launched a series of Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s across Leb
...an Iranian satrapy until recently ruled by Hassan Nasrallah situated on the eastern Mediterranean, conveniently adjacent to Israel. Formerly inhabited by hardy Phoenecian traders, its official language is now Arabic, with the usual unpleasant side effects. The Leb civil war, between 1975 and 1990, lasted a little over 145 years and produced 120,000 fatalities. The average length of a ceasefire was measured in seconds. The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else? It is the home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade. The Lebs have the curious habit of periodically murdering their heads of state or prime ministers...
 targeting branches of al-Qard al-Hassan, an unlicensed credit association considered to be Hezbollah’s bank.

The sorties marked a shift from strikes against military objectives alone to targeting infrastructure ostensibly in the civilian realm, underlining the challenges posed by the terror group’s deep integration in Lebanese society.

Due to its networks of welfare organizations, clinics, and extensive patronage system among Shiites, extricating Hezbollah from Lebanon’s civil fabric could prove a more complicated and daunting task than destroying the Iran-backed group’s military capabilities.

The Hezbollah that existed before the launch of the ground offensive no longer exists, "but it still is dangerous and it’s not going to disappear," Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt told The Times of Israel in a recent phone conversation.

"Hezbollah really is a movement. It’s not just a terrorist organization, or a militia, or a political party. It’s also deeply involved in social and religious activities," said Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former FBI counterterrorism expert.

Hezbollah’s military capabilities are weakened and ostensibly crumbling. Last week, the IDF said it had killed over 2,000 members of the Iran-backed group since October 2023, including many of its commanders, and destroyed about 70-80% of the rockets it possessed before the war. It also said it defeated Hezbollah’s forces in every area where its troops operated in southern Lebanon.

And while the terror group recently appointed a new leader, Naim Qassem
... the Grand Vizier of the Hezbullies...
, to replace its slain Secretary General His Eminence Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
...The late, lamented satrap of the Medes and the Persians in Leb...>
, it is not clear who is leading the terror groups’ military strategy on the ground.

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 "much of Hezbollah’s social welfare infrastructure remains intact, because the IDF is targeting its weapons caches and command and control centers. They are not targeting Hezbollah-run medical clinics and welfare programs," Levitt said.

The Hezbollah expert described the terror group’s wide range of social activities as a "shadow governance," providing critical services to a country long on the brink of financial and political collapse, plagued by perennial corruption and sectarian strife. This has created a "shadow constituency" dependent on its assistance, Levitt said.

"Hezbollah today has the best of both worlds — it is part of the Lebanese state, with members holding cabinet positions and seats in parliament, but remains an independent group that operates apart from the state," Levitt wrote in a recent article for the Washington Institute. Thus, "it avoids the accountability that typically comes with holding elected office."

HEZBOLLAH’S VAST NETWORK OF CHARITIES
The financial group al-Qard al-Hassan, or AQAH, was founded by Hezbollah in 1983, one year after the terror group’s establishment, to provide interest-free loans in line with Islamic principles. Over the years, AQAH grew into a major financial institution with branches throughout Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.

The US blacklisted AQAH in 2007, saying Hezbollah uses it as a cover to manage the group’s financial activities and gain access to the international financial system.

However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
 Hezbollah’s civilian infrastructure extends far beyond, constituting a system of patronage that fills the gaps left by the inefficient Lebanese government and strengthens its clout over the country’s Shiite community of some 2 million, effectively creating a Shiite "mini-state."

It includes a network of medical centers known as the Islamic Health Organization, which provides healthcare services for free or at a reduced cost to Shiites, while also treating maimed Hezbollah fighters, according to the Israeli Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

In 2021, Hezbollah also launched the al-Sajjad supermarket chain, named after a revered figure in Shiite Islam. These supermarkets sell products (often of Iranian, Syrian or Iraqi origin) at significantly reduced prices for customers who present Hezbollah-issued cards.

Additionally, Hezbollah controls a chain of gas stations, the Amana Petroleum Company, which sells Iranian fuel at discounted rates, sometimes in defiance of the Lebanese government. It has been under US sanctions since 2020.

Hezbollah’s construction arm, Jihad al-Bina, was instrumental in rebuilding areas destroyed in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Today, the foundation, established in 1988, manages various large-scale projects in civil engineering, agriculture, and industry, and runs vocational training centers, according to the Meir Amit Center.

On the propaganda front, Hezbollah runs its own TV channel, al-Manar, and various educational programs, including a youth group known as the Mahdi Scouts, used to indoctrinate young Shiites, according to the IDF.

The terror group also claims to be involved in environmental sustainability. It operates Green Without Borders, a nonprofit, which claims to manage reforestation projects in southern Lebanon. According to Israel, the group actually provides cover to Hezbollah positions; it was sanctioned by the US for alleged terror activities last year.

HEZBOLLAH’S FINANCIAL STRUGGLES
Last week, the IDF revealed that it had located a Hezbollah bunker under a Beirut hospital. Inside, the army said, was more than $500 million in gold and cash being stored by the terror group.

Despite its fortune, though, Hezbollah is reportedly undergoing a liquidity crisis, with the IDF’s airstrikes on branches of AQAH likely adding to the growing financial strain on the Iranian proxy.

Lebanese and foreign sources cited in a recent Voice of America report claimed Hezbollah was running out of cash and unable to pay its members. Its access to Lebanon’s formal banking system is also reportedly curtailed, as the country’s wealthiest bankers have fled abroad, fearing they could be targeted next by Israel for helping Hezbollah, according to VOA.

Until recently, the terror group was awash in cash, thanks to Iranian money transfers and its own illicit activities — chief among them its vast international drug smuggling network, according to experts. Hezbollah used that liquidity to keep its Shiite constituents happy, handing out monthly stipends in stable foreign currency.

A Shiite woman who recently evacuated from south Lebanon to Beirut told The Guardian that the group had doled out monthly cash payments of $200, as well as food parcels, praising them for "taking incredible care" of her family.

It is not clear how long Hezbollah will be able to continue disbursing those payments. The social welfare network also faces a labor shortage, as many of Hezbollah’s members whose day jobs were in its charities have been called up to fight or are incapacitated due to injuries sustained in pager and walkie-talkie explosions in September.

Furthermore, the displacement of over a million people from Shiite-majority areas in southern Lebanon and elsewhere has put additional pressure on the informal welfare system.

"This is going to be another significant layer of demands at a time of diminishing resources and competing demands for those resources," Levitt said.

WILL HEZBOLLAH TURN ITS WEAPONS AGAINST THE LEBANESE?
As Israel works to dismantle Hezbollah’s military and financial capabilities, the terror group may resort to using guns instead of butter to maintain its grip over Lebanon, Levitt warned. The group has a long history of using violence to suppress its critics.

With Iran’s backing, the terror group is likely to attempt to rearm and refill its coffers at the earliest opportunity. It remains unclear whether the international community would be able to step in and keep Tehran’s influence from infiltrating Lebanon, and whether the Lebanese Armed Forces would be capable of reasserting illusory sovereignty and a state monopoly over the legitimate use of force, Levitt said.

"Hezbollah will fight hard to prevent it," he predicted, "and it will still have the means to do so even after Israel removes a significant proportion of its strategic threat."
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