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Former NYPD Commish Kerik Encourages Trump to Hold Mexico 'Accountable' on Immigration
2018-06-20
[PJ] Responding on Twitter to a post written Monday by PJ Media Washington Editor Bridget Johnson, former New York City Police Commissioner Bernard Kerik had this to say:
Bernard B. Kerik

@BernardKerik
.@POTUS @realDonaldTrump - #Mexico should be held accountable in the strongest of terms because if they wanted this surge of illegal immigration to stop, they would have stopped it. Mexico is endangering their own country's children, and our @ICEgov @DHSgov enforcement personnel.

Johnson's post quoted Attorney General Jeff Sessions' remark during a speech when he said there was "an important conversation occurring in this country about whether we want to be a country of laws or whether we want to be a country without borders."

Kerik brings up something that has long been a sore spot for border state dwellers no matter who is in the White House at the time: no one in the immigration "debate" ever brings up Mexico's culpability in the problem.

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox is now a fierce, loudmouthed critic of President Trump when it comes to people crossing illegally from his country into the United States. When he was in office and asked about Mexico doing its part to stem the flow of illegal immigration, Fox weakly replied, "What can Mexico do to prevent undocumented workers from entering the United States?"

There has been almost no pressure on any Mexican president by any American president of either party to get involved in what almost all would agree is an untenable border situation. Maybe Mexico can't stop the problem completely, but that doesn't mean it shouldn't be participating in the solution, as well as being held accountable for being part of the problem.
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Fifth Column
The DACAnschluss: When Idealism and State Sovereignty Collide, the Result is a Threat to National Security
2018-02-02
[SmallWarsJournal] When Senator Chuck Schumer monkey-wrenched efforts to pass a continuing resolution, and pitched the U.S. government into a disruptive shutdown, he – seemingly inadvertently – highlighted how the policy of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) has facilitated political warfare, against the United States, by foreign interests. Although DACA - crafted by the overly-idealistic Obama administration - was probably the work of well-intentioned individuals, it has become a cudgel for non-citizens to wield against American institutions, harming legally present individuals in the process. Ultimately, this political empowerment of illegally present voices leads to an erosion of the United States’ sovereignty by allowing a foreign population to influence the country’s decisions.

Schumer and his ilk, whether they realized it or not, were victims of foreign coercion. In 1938, Austria ceded sovereignty to neighboring Germany, in what was portrayed as a merger of cultures. Foreign voices have argued for a U.S. policy that is similarly capitulatory. For instance, former Mexican president, Vicente Fox, has argued on behalf of DACA beneficiaries remaining in the United States.[i] Even while in office, Fox, according to Jorge Castaneda - his one-time foreign minister - had identified a higher U.S. visa quota for Mexicans and increased transition of undocumented Mexicans already in the United States as core concepts in the U.S. – Mexican bilateral relationship.[ii] (One must wonder if Fox’s foisting of Mexican nationals on the United States represented an implicit admission of failure as a leader.) DACA is consistent with these foreign desires for U.S. policies that will act as safety valves.

The problem of undocumented, illegal immigration is not a new one, nor is Mexico unique in its contribution to this population. However, what Obama did in 2012, by creating DACA (and in 2014 with Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents), was to give a voice, in U.S. politics, to foreign nationals. Despite not being able to vote, these individuals have nonetheless involved themselves in national political campaigns.[iii] These individuals have also taken to the streets, in emotionally charged demonstrations (which have resulted in arrests of participants) and have demanded that lawmakers adjust their positions on immigration.[iv] Even individuals whose DACA status has expired have felt entitled to be publicly vocal in making demands for immigration reform. However, when they have been arrested, their sympathizers seem unable to comprehend why out-of-status malcontents might be subject to law enforcement action.[v] These two currents – participation within the political process and exertion of outside pressure, in the form of populist outbursts – find their confluence in an assault on sovereignty that is directed at influencing / coercing elected officials to account for the voices of those who they were not elected to represent.
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Home Front: Politix
President Fox Apologizes, Invites Trump to Mexico
2016-05-05
This is why it's a very bad idea for outside officials to publicly declare opinions before we've made our decision. A great many others may also find themselves in the same position, regardless who wins.
[BREITBART] During an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, former Mexican President Vicente Fox apologized Wednesday for the vulgar language he has used regarding GOP frontrunner Donald Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the southern border and invited the likely Republican nominee to Mexico to see the border from the other side.

Earlier this year, Fox said that he would not pay for Trump’s "f*cking wall," and called Trump ""Ignorant ... crazy ... egocentric ... nasty ... [a] false prophet." Trump then called on Fox to apologize.

On Wednesday, he did so -- in an exclusive interview with Breitbart News -- and added that he wanted Trump to come to Mexico to see the border from the other side.

"I apologize. Forgiveness is one of the greatest qualities that human beings have, is the quality of a compassionate leader. You have to be humble. You have to be compassionate. You have to love thy neighbor," Fox explained to Breitbart News while sitting in the hotel of the J.W. Marriott in Santa Monica, Caliphornia, an impregnable bastion of the Democratic Party, on Wednesday afternoon.

"Love your nation. Love the world," he added. "Yes, I’m humble enough as leadership be, [a] compassionate leader. If I offended you, I’m sorry. But what about the other way around?"

"I don’t think he should follow the strategy of attacking others, offending others, to get to his purpose. There are other ways and means of doing it," Fox stressed, adding, "I invite him to come to Mexico and to see what Mexico is all about."

Fox stressed the important trade ties the two countries have, noting that the U.S. benefits from Mexican labor and has much larger trade deficits with other countries.

He urged Trump to be more responsible, and suggested that he could help: "I can convince him to think intelligently" about trade and other issues, he explained.
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Caribbean-Latin America
2nd former Mexican president unloads on Donald Trump
2016-02-28
[AP] MEXICO CITY (AP) -- Former Mexican President Felipe Calderon on Saturday joined his predecessor in office in unloading on Donald Trump, calling the Republican front-runner's campaign racist and saying his discourse on immigration is fueling anti-American sentiment around the world.

Calderon, a conservative who was president of Mexico from 2006 to 2012, even said he thought Trump was trying to exploit the same social feelings and resentments as did Adolf Hitler.

"I think his logic of exalting white supremacy isn't even acting against immigration -- Donald Trump is the descendant of migrants -- it is acting and speaking against immigrants who have a different skin color than him, which is frankly racist and is a bit like the exploitation of sensitive fibers that Hitler did in his day," Calderon told reporters after a meeting of the National Action Party, or PAN, in Mexico City.

Calderon's comments parallel those made earlier by former President Vicente Fox, who preceded Calderon in office and also belonged to the PAN party.

In interviews with Univision and Mexican media, Fox called Trump "crazy," a "false prophet" and an embarrassment to his party. When asked about Trump's assertion that he was going to get Mexico to pay for his proposed border wall, Fox used an explicative to make his point the country would never do so.

Trump said Fox ought to be "ashamed of himself" for his vulgarity and demanded an apology.

Trump has angered many Mexicans for his campaign rhetoric denigrating some immigrants as "rapists" who bring crime and drugs to the United States. Threats of mass deportations of Mexicans and other migrants illegally in the country, along with his promise to build a wall separating the nations, have added to the bad feelings.

Calderon said Trump's discourse is "sowing hate" against the United States around the world and this is not is Washington's interest.

During a visit to Mexico's capital, Vice President Joe Biden apologized for the inflammatory rhetoric about Mexico in the U.S. presidential campaign.

"Some of the rhetoric coming from some of the presidential candidates on the other team are I think dangerous, damaging and incredibly ill-advised," Biden said on Thursday. "But here's what I'm here to tell you: They do not, they do not, they do not represent the view of the vast majority of the American people."
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Caribbean-Latin America
Former Mexican president: 'I'm not going to pay for that 'expletive' wall'
2016-02-26
How fortunate that as the former president he will never be required to do so.
How wealthy is he and is he sending any money by wire?
[Washington Examiner] Just 48 hours after Trump told Nevada voters that Mexico is "going to be thrilled to be paying" for the wall he's proposed along the Southern border, Mexico's former president offered a very different take.

"I'm not going to pay for that f--king wall," Vicente Fox told Fusion's Jorge Ramos during an interview Thursday.

"He should pay for it. He's got the money," Fox said of Trump, the billionaire-turned-Republican presidential front-runner.

Upon being asked if he fears Trump will succeed in his bid for the White House and what that would mean for Mexico, Fox said "democracy can not take that."
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Caribbean-Latin America
PRI prepares to gut Fox era security reforms
2013-11-11


By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

After a speech given by Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto at a forum hosted by The Economist (UK), Miguel Osorio Chong, Peña's Secretaria de Gobernacion (SEGOB), or interior minister spent time in the press last week clarifying Pena's remarks.

According to a news report posted on the website of Yancuic.com, president Peña told the forum that a reduction of violence has occurred in Mexico since the end of 2012, but, according to a news account Peña gave no details.

According to the news account, president Peña used the term appreciably with regard to the drop in violent crime in Mexico, and even when asked about what metric could used to show any decline in violence, Peña did not answer.

One criticism from the publisher of The Economist news weekly, unidentified in the article, was that when president Peña spoke of the reduction of crime he failed to make note of events in Michoacan, easily one of the most violent states in Mexico, and one which potentially threatens Pena's security strategy.

Another problem with president Peña's claims is that, according to the news account, if the drop in homicides in Mexico state only are taken into account, then Peña told the truth. Which means that Peña likely lied to the forum in his claims.

According to the data supplied by The Economist, officials in Mexico state had changed the methodology of reporting statistics for violent crime, which showed a steep drop the year Peña's term as governor ended in 2011. Now, two years later, Peña is applying apparently similar methodology by eliminating drug related deaths from statistical compilations. That statistical trick has indicated a dramatic reduction in violent crime starting in August -- when the new method went into place -- by 20 percent.

Osorio Chong responded to critics the next morning by claiming Peña's anti crime strategy deals with people not statistics. Osorio Chong before a senate committee last week combatively also denied a conspiracy of silence existed between the federal and state governments in reporting violent crime in Mexico.

That statement by Osorio Chong may well be the epitaph of transparency laws in place since 2005 under the Vicente Fox presidential administration.

Having pushed an across the board income tax increases as well as levies on other items including sugary drinks, Peña is now pushing to eliminate transparency reforms dealing with security policy in place since 2005.

An editorial which appeared earlier in the week in El Siglo de Durango news daily written by Jorge Perez Arellano said that the new national expenditure law, approved in the Chamber of Deputies and now being considered by the Mexican senate, was passed without Article 9 or Article 15, two 2005 reforms which forced state and municipal governments to report certain classes of spending back to the federal government.

The Presupuesto de Egresos 2014, or Expenditure Act of 2014 is set for a vote November 16th in the Senate when it is expected to pass, then go to the plenary session for final approval.

State and municipal governments in Mexico are severely restricted in how much of their own revenue they can raise and spend. The Mexican federal government provides the lion's share of money for state and local police corporations. Under the current law any monies provided by the federal government for security not spent 90 days after the funds are originally transferred, must be reported and any use of those funds by state of municipal entities must be publicly available for anyone to see.

Another reform expected to be removed from 2014 spending program is the requirement that state and municipal public servants must report to the Chamber of Deputies and to the national auditor's office any complaints against those officials.

For the average Mexican citizen, the reform meant that any complaints pressed against an errant officials would be sent to the Chamber of Deputies and to the auditor. With the new reform, now the average Mexican citizen will be forced to go to Mexico City to press complaints since municipal and state officials will no longer be required to send them on to the federal government.

According to Perez Arellano, the gutting of the reforms will allow public servants to grant themselves and their subordinates salary increases, presumably without any legislative oversight.

According to a separate report in El Diario de Chihuahua news daily, Veracruz Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) deputy Juan Bueno Torio warned that the elimination of the reforms will give state and local officials a "big spoon", and that gutting reform could lead to increased indebtedness in states and municipalities.

Bueno Torio, formerly a senator, had spent some time towards the end of his term warning about the dire condition of Mexican municipalities with indebtedness. At the time in 2012, he warned that 80 percent of all municipalities in Mexico were having dire economic problems due to increased amounts of debt.

It was a massive increase of public debt from 2005 to 2011 that led the populist former Coahuila governor and former PRI president Humberto Moreira Valdes to resign.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com and BorderlandBeat.com
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Caribbean-Latin America
Mexican Army deploys troops to 13 troubled Mexican states
2013-01-27

For a map, click here

By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

The Mexican Army is deploying 14,000 effectives to 13 Mexican states it considers hot spots in the drug war, according to Mexican news accounts.

A brief item posted on the website of Reforma news daily Saturday morning said the 13 states receiving deployments include Mexico state, Coahuila, Durango, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Morelos, Aguascalientes and Zacatecas.

It is worth noting that most of the states are entities used by Los Zetas to bring product, migrants and shooters from central America to the northern border. Notably missing from the list are three of the six northern tier Mexican states, Baja California, Chihuahua and Sonora, all of which have experienced some decline in drug related violence in the past year.

However of those three, Chihuahua has experienced a spike in drug and gang related violence since the start of the year.

Notably absent from the list are states which have also experienced an increase in violence, namely Sinaloa, Jalisco and Michoacan states. Those states have received security reinforcements since the start of the year in the form of Policia Federal units, which now operate under the auspices of the Mexican Secretaria de Gobierno (SEGOB) or interior ministry.

The Mexican national government has shifted the focus of its counternarcotics strategy away from one of confrontation with the several drug gangs currently operating in Mexico using Mexican military forces and by using Policia Federal more to quell violence from drug gangs.

One of the stated goals of Mexican president Enrique Pena Nieto in the new strategy is to eventually return military forces to the barracks. The strategy is already in motion, according to a statement released by the Mexican Secretaria de Marina (SEMAR), or Mexican Navy. Last week Admiral Vidal Francisco Soberon Sanz noted in an Organizacion Editorial Mexicano news report that military troops are slowly being removed from the streets to allow Mexico's police to handle counternarcotics operations.

Another element of the new strategy is to divide Mexican into five geographical regions overseen by representatives of the local Mexican Army, Naval infantry, interior ministry and Procuraduria General de la Republica (PGR) or national attorney general. The idea is to make states more responsible for their security, to combine state resources and general knowledge of their regions and to allow close monitoring of police forces by the federal government. With the representatives of those institutions, several states within the zones are to appoint representatives within 30 days of the law's publication. The law that instituted the five zones was passed December 17th, 2012. Implicit in the law are required regular meetings of the five security zones.

Among the purposes is to provide a means of training and testing local municipal police, and to have that training standardized. Another purpose is to provide a career track for local police for as long as 20 years.

Some of the meetings have already taken place. For example, the latest meeting of the some of the governors of the northwest zone, held at an aircraft hangar at the airport in Chihuahua Friday afternoon demonstrated Pena's strategy as well as his attitude towards politicians of the Mexican state governments.

Procuraduria General la Republica (PGR) or attorney general, Jesus Murillo Karam, Secretaria de Defensa Nacional (SEDENA) General Cepeda Salvador Cienfuegos, SEMAR Admiral Vidal Francisco Soberon Sanz and undersecretary of the interior for security Manuel Mondragon y Kalb were in attendance from the federal government.

Sinaloa Governor Mario Lopez Valdez, Baja California Governor Jose Osuna Millan, Baja California Sur Governor Marcos Covarrubias and Sonora Governor Guillermo Padres also attended, as well as Chihuahua Governor Javier Durate and his Fiscalia General del Estado (FGE) or state attorney general, Carlos Manuel Salas.

According to an opinion piece posted in El Heraldo de Chihuahua news daily Saturday morning, among the first acts at the meeting of the federal government was for cellular telephone batteries of the participating governors and their staffs to be seized by federal government staff before the meeting, much to their apparent surprise and dismay.

Perhaps more stark was the statement of SEGOB Miguel Angel Osorio Chong that the days of political flexibility of state governors allowed by the previous two PAN presidents, Vicente Fox and Feipe Calderon were gone and that security in the states was now the responsibility of the SEGOB and the president.

One possible interpretation to SEGOB's statement is that in previous federal governments state governments were allowed flexibility in their security spending, within the parameters set by the Chamber of Deputies. A good example would be two years ago when the Mexican Army was expanded by 18 battalions. State governments were allowed to donate land for the construction of new bases to house the new units, and provide smaller amounts from their budgets for construction.

Now the relationship has changed. One indication of how SEGOB will determine that change is that state governments are probably going to be asked to provide much more of their own budgets for federal government requirements in security.

According to a news report on El Diario de Coahuila news daily website more recently, Coahuila governor Ruben Moreira Valdes announced Friday that 150 more police vehicles are to be purchased and deployed, including 16 patrol cars and 34 pickup trucks. This time half of the MX $68 million cost being borne by Coahuila state. The 50 vehicles are to be "distributed" to the five municipalities of the troubled La Laguna region.

Governor Moreira has been under intense political pressure due to the increased violence in La Laguna and from the notion that his state has ignored the region.

Coahuila is currently faced with an austerity program initiated by the PRI-dominated state legislature after it was discovered that Coahuila had acquired over the course of three years the heaviest per capita debt in Mexico. The pressure mounted by criminal gangs in Torreon, which has virtually closed down the nightlife in there, coupled with a tight budget is creating obvious problems for security in the Coahuila side of La Laguna, even as the Mexican federal government has decided to deploy troops to affected areas.

By contrast, in Zacatecas state, according to a news item posted on the website of El Sol de Zacatecas news daily, the state had already received some of its security allocation in the form of weapons, uniforms and equipment for police totalling MX $5 million. Another MX $18 million has been given for a new police training program, and MX $14.6 million for other security purposes.

According to the article, Zacatecas state Secretaria de Seguridad Publica (SSP) Jesus Ortiz Pinto, the Policia Estatal Preventiva (PEP) have expanded their number by 300 percent, although the article does not state the time frame.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Caribbean-Latin America
Mexico's PAN adjusts to life as minor opposition party
2012-07-15


By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

As Jose de Jesus Grijalva of Partido de Revolucion Democratica (PRD) pressed his case to overturn the 2012 presidential election, and Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) president elect Enrique Pena Nieto selects his transition team, Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) leaders began the slow transition to their new status as an opposition party after 12 years of rule.

President elect Pena Nieto's announcement of his transition team came midweek and included a central figure in his government while he was governor of Mexico state.

The team members are: Louis Videgaray Caso, Jesus Murillo Karam and Miguel Angel Osorio Chong.

Murillo Karam served as PRI general secretary under PRI president Beatriz Parades Rangel, 2007 to 2011. During that time PRI made tremendous gains in statehouses in the 2010 election, securing 11 of 14 that year.

Osorio Chong served as governor of Hidalgo state 2005 to 2011.

But Videgaray Caso is the most significant appointment of Pena Nieto, having served as his finance minister the first four years of Pena Nieto's term as governor of Mexico state. He left government to become PRI's Mexico state general secretary, and was out of government by 2009. The most significant iissue is that if Pena Nieto moved public funds for political use, Videgaray Caso probably knew about it.

Meanwhile Zambrano Grijalva went on the electronic interview circuits to press his case for a trial in front of the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federacion (TEPJF), and juridicial arm of the Institutio Federal Electoral (IFE), the independent government body that manages national elections in Mexico.

The PRD is an aggrieved party in the matter, and according to several Mexican news articles, PAN is not, having coming in third place in both the presidential and Chamber of Deputies and Senate races.

In an interview with Mexican CNN Mexico journalist Carmen Aristagui, Zambrano Grijalva said that a PRD complaint filed in late April had put PRI campaign spending at almost three times the campaign limits. Putting the total at MX $1.8 billion (USD $135,402,480.00), he said the spending does not include the Soriana gift card scandal, which emerged just after the polls closed in Mexico July 1st. That scandal is said to involve amounts totalling at least MX $100 million (USD $7,522,360.00).

Zambrano Grijalva also said that PRD's case was submitted to the TEPJF last Thursday. According to other Mexican news accounts, the case won't be decided until September.

For his part, PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz told Mexican press last week that PAN would not be involved in pressing to have the election results thrown out since PAN polled so poorly nationwide. PAN has other matters on its plate.

Last Monday, former presidential candidate Santiago Creel told El Universal's redpolitica.mx, that PAN had suffered internal divisions for years before the 2012 election, and that those divisions will need to be sorted out before PAN moves into its new role as the loyal opposition.

Having entered writing about Mexican politics this writer can only guess what the issues were, except amongst them were probably moving PAN further to the right in basic issues such as national security and in federalism.

One very good example of those problem politics was a tweet Madero made early in the presidential campaign talking about PAN's Josefina Vazquez Mota, when he quoted California US Senator Diane Feinstein about women working twice as hard to be considered half as good, adding "fortunately, that isn't very hard."

That tweet probably made for great guffaws but in a nation with a culture such as Mexico's, divided amongst conservative Catholics, radical statists and native mystics, the sentiment could not have resulted in very many votes for PAN.

Creel in his interview also said another of the problems for PAN is structural: There are simply not enough PAN politicians to help in a presidential campaign and to have enough personnel for government. Many PAN politicians, such as Madero, are independently wealthy. Left unsaid in the interview was PAN now owning only four statehouses, and faring as badly everywhere else in the critical municipal governments, where PRI is the strongest.

Still, having top PAN campaign advisors leave the campaign for personal reasons looked bad.

But nothing highlighted PAN's problems in the election more than the betrayal of former Mexico president Vicente Fox, when he endorsed Pena Nieto three weeks before the election.

What made this betrayal so egregious for PAN was that Fox had told Mexican press early in the campaign season that he considered Vazquez Mota a weak candidate. A week later Fox came to Nuevo Leon state and posed for a photo of him kissing Vazquez Mota in a presumed sign of endorsement, cordiality and redemption.

At about the same time Fox finally endorsed Pena Nieto, a press account came out about a poll that placed PRD only four points behind Pena Nieto. It is unclear if that report prompted Fox to make his endorsement. Fox since 2010 had made a number of outrageous comments to the press, one of them endorsing the leglization of marijuana in Mexico. It is unclear if his endorsement of Pena Nieto was out of fear of a PRD win or if he really felt Pena Nieto was a better candidate or president.

In his remarks, Fox said that a return of the PRI would not be such a bad thing, since reforms passed during 12 years of PAN rule severely restricted what PRI could legally do.

Nevertheless, Vazquez Mota campaign coordinator Roberto Gil Zuarth demanded Fox be expelled from the party, which is a process that Madero announced last Monday he would begin.

PAN has a long road ahead to rebuild its political fortunes, As editor of El Diario de Coahuila news daily, Javier Garza put it last week, PAN could emerge as a power broker in the Chamber of Deputies in moving forward reforms that PRI had sought to stop in the last three years.

But PAN's structural problems remain. PAN is weak at the municipal level, and little hope exists that that problem will be resolved anytime soon.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Caribbean-Latin America
Sunday's Mexican presidential debate to sharpen distinctions
2012-06-10


By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

Sunday evening's Mexican presidential debate, the second since the campaign began, may the the last chance the three main contenders for president of the republic will have to lay out their case to the Mexican public before the July 1st election.

Several news events could shape the upcoming debate, including a surprising if disappointing endorsement of Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) candidate Enrique Pena Nieto from former president Vicente Fox, current Mexican president Felipe Calderon Hinojona's immediate predecessor.

Fox's explicit endorsement earlier last week was probably in response to a poll published by Reforma news daily a week before that placed leftist candidate Andres Manual Lopez Orbador within four percentage points of Pena Nieto, despite every other nationwide poll giving Pena Nieto at least 20 percentage point over his rivals.

Fox's endorsement was followed by calls within Partido Accion National (PAN) to expel the former president from the party. Fox has in the past been given to outrageous comments on Mexican national politics. He has also expressed personal misgivings about the candidacy of PAN candiate Josefina Vazquez Mota.

Later in the week Fox walked back his comment a little by saying the bad old PRI could not wreak the kind of havoc that they had in the past explicitly because of the numerous reforms passed by himself and President Calderon. The walkback seemed to temper the controversy somewhat for the third place PAN.

Between the time of Fox's comments and the eve of the second presidential debate, however, polls have come out which, rather than redefine the race, have sharpened the distinctions among the candidates enough so the Reforma poll was tagged an outlier. Every presidential poll nationwide including GEA/ISA, Consulta Mitofsky and minor polls run by individual news outlets have Pena Nieto by as much as 20 percentage points, a lead which has held eerily without changing for 10 weeks, despite numerous and recent gaffes by Pena Nieto.

Not giving up. Partido Revolucion Democratica (PRD) leader José de Jesus Zambrano Grijalva announced late last week that his own internal polling has Lopez Obrador leading Pena Nieto by four points. Zambrano was quick to point out the respondents were mostly urban dwellers, a voting block also hotly contested by PAN. PRI's strength lies in unions and peasant political organizations as well as urban dwellers.

PRD has been busily organizing demonstrations against the return of PRI to Los Pinos, the first being an anti Pena Nieto protest march two weeks ago in Mexican city. That gathering drew 22,500 protesters, many of them likely PRD militants and radical socialist elements such as the Sindicato Mexicano de Electricistas (SME) or Mexican Electricians Union.

Three weeks ago a protest movement sprang up on several Mexican universities calling itself Yo Soy 132, which is a Mexican reference to the American "I am the 99 percent", like Yo Soy 132 an astroturf socialist organization attempting to democratize a republic.

Some of the agenda of Yo Soy 132 matches the agenda of PRD and its leader, Lopez Obrador including support for violent armed "resistance movements", presumably including the Ejercito Zapatista Liberacion Nacional (EZLN), which started and lost the Chiapas conflict in early 1994, as well as other armed Marxist guerilla movements which are still operational in Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas states.

The SME is a supporter of EZLN as is Javier Sicilia, leader of the Movement for Peace Justice and Dignity. Sicilia was among the Mexican Catholic Church team which negotiated the January 1994 ceasefire. Many of the leaders of Sicilia's movement have been drafted onto at large slates of deputies. Far from maintaining the original mandate of his organization, Sicilia's only response to the news was to encourage his own supporters not to vote at all as a protest.

How much influence Yo Soy 132 will have on the current presidential contest is unclear, but the Mexican independent left has its fingerprints all over it including information operations. Since Yo Soy 132 became known, a second Pena Nieto love child has emerged, as have stories about his sexual preferences, the second of which was published a week ago in a Los Angeles Spanish language newspaper.

Pena Nieto is currently married to one of Mexico's most beautiful women, Mexican soap opera actress Angelica Rivera Hurtado.

This is taking a page from the PRI playbook. Many PRI politicians have used foreign Spanish language press to smear electoral opponents with planted news stories likely to affect voters' preferences.

The presidential debate, thanks to the efforts of Yo Soy 132, are to be televised by the Mexican Televisa media giant. The debate will also be live fed through many Mexican newspapers websites including Milenio. The debate begins at 1800 hrs.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com

© Copyright 2012 by Chris Covert
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Caribbean-Latin America
Mexican Political Notebook: June 5th
2012-06-05


By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

A statement Sunday by former Mexican president Vicente Fox essentially endorsing Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) candidate Enrique Pena Nieto has thrown the other two major campaigns into an uproar, according to Mexican news reports.

Fox was president of the republic from 2000 to 2006, and the first president from Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) to win the presidency. His successor, Felipe Calderon Hinojosa won election in 2006 by less than one percentage point over Partido Revolucion Democratica (PRD) candidate Andres Manuel Lopoz Obrador. Lopez Obrador is running again for president, his fourth attempt as the candidate of the left since the formation of the PRD in 1994.

Fox held the press conference in San Cristobal, Guanajuato where he urged Mexicans to rally around the front running Pena Nieto, who has maintained double digit leads over his rivals consistently since the start in March.

According to a news account on the website of Milenio news daily, Fox said, "...a winner is emerging and we must support him, so we can resolve the problems." Fox also said voters should not be afraid of a return to authoritarianism, adding that political reforms since PAN took over would prevent the excesses committed by PRI governments in the past.

Fox's statement has not surprisingly touched off heated reactions from political camps of the left and the right, including from PAN president Gustavo Madero Munoz who tweeted earlier Monday: "I do not know what bug bit him." Madero's tweet was a reference to Fox's endorsement and photo op earlier last month, in which Fox partially repudiated an earlier statement that PRI would win the presidency.

Madero could not forebear to make a swipe against Lopez Obrador by adding in his tweet, "I am deeply offended with all the support was to be for the one democrat!"

Fox has in the past been given to astonishingly dumb statements which wound up hurting his own party. In 2011, he made a statement in the press criticizing President Calderon and his war on the cartels, and then recommended legalization of drugs in Mexico.

But Fox's media event was a deliberate announcement of support of Pena Nieto, not an unfortunate off the cuff statement by an elder, albeit former statesman. His latest antic has calls coming for his expulsion from PAN.

Pena Nieto for his part has been calling for economic reforms centering around free markets, much like his distant predecessor Miguel de la Madrid, who died earlier in the year. He has also called to continue the war on the cartels except with a different strategy, one he has to date failed to enunciate.

This co-optation has not moved the polls further in his direction, but they have not hurt him either. His most recent statements seem to indicate he is now relishing his status as frontrunner. Instead of attacking his rivals, he is talking reforms.

Pena is also facing a potential problem of his own as undecided voters are the second largest block after his own supporters. A presidential debate is coming next Sunday. Even though last month's debate failed to move any of the candidates, the next debate is an unknown factor in the race.

Lopez Obrador has characterised Fox's statement as "immoral", and Fox himself as "despicable", saying Fox's endorsement is a "dirty trick".

Lopz Obrador himself is facing an enquiry by the Instituto Federal Electoral into his campaign's finances announced last week.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and natonal political news for Rantburg.com

© Copyright 2012 by Chris Covert
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Caribbean-Latin America
Mexican Political Notebook: April 30th
2012-04-30

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PAN implodes

By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

With the first full month of campaigning about to conclude, the Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) presidential campaign of Josefina Vazquez Mota is showing all the signs of a campaign that has imploded. What the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) gave last week, PAN internal politics take away.

Troubled before it even began, the Vazquez Mota camp took some measures to counter those troubles, but waited two weeks after the start to try to bolster its position in the polls. Among the measures was adding several PAN stars to its lineup of advisers including former Mexican finance minister Ernesto Cordero, former Jalisco state governor Francisco Ramirez Acuña and current PAN president Gustavo Madero.

Accompanying those additional advisers was a series of negative campaign ads which accused Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidential candidate Enrique Pena Nieto of lying about his record while governor of Mexico state. The ads were greeted with accusations from PRI party leaders, such as PRI president Pedro Coldwell and Nuevo Leon governor Rogelio Medina de la Cruz as acts of desperation.

The ads were actually very mild and fact based. The IFE voted last week that the ads do not adversely affect democracy in Mexico, which wound up a huge win for Madero.

The one sure sign of the campaign's implosion came last week as a Durango senatorial candidate distanced himself from the attack ads, a sure sign of an internal and potentially disastrous revolt in the party.

But the most stunning sign was the announcement made last Thursday that Madero was to return to the senate, while continuing to serve as PAN president. Somehow, Madero had hoped to convince the Mexican press that he could run PAN, advise the Vazquez Mota campaign and be a senator, all at once.

Proceso, the leftist news weekly last week expressed its doubts, as have other Mexican writers that Madero is actually going to do all that. The hint now is that Madero exited the PAN presidency just before his replacement is found. No one in PAN nor the Comite Ejecutivo Nacional or National Executive Committee are talking about the news yet. As in everything else having to do with national politics, PAN is coming off in the press as weak and flat-footed in its politics. This is a very bad sign, not just for Vazquez Mota's campaign, but for its hopes in the Chamber of Deputies and in the senate as well.

A writer publishing an opinion piece entitled "Josifina's Boat" last Saturday in El Siglo de Durango news daily put PAN's problems most succinctly:
The keel of the vessel is attached to the bottom, rudder strokes are of little use. They need high tide (perhaps "a miracle" as Fox puts it) because they do not move, but the boat is "leaky." The sailors jump ship, either by choice or by orders of the port.

The reference to Fox is former president Vicente Fox, who in the first days of the campaign said the Vazquez Mota would need a miracle to defeat Pena Nieto.

That barb didn't prevent PAN from a very public display of affection as well as unity when Vazquez Mota received a hug and a kiss from Fox last week, who later declined to aid her campaign. The display was so genuine that Madero could not forebear but to protest the affection Fox displayed was real.

But it is the affection that Mexican president Felipe Calderon Hinojosa has for the Vazquez Mota campaign that could be the most telling of all. While Calderon, by virtue of his post as president is not allowed to conduct a campaign on behalf of Vazquez Mota, giving a campaign advisor, Ramirez Acuña, an ambassadorship in Spain in the midst of an election campaign of an ally is a most telling sign of his disdain for Vazquez Mota.

Vazquez Mota was not Calderon's first choice for president. It was Cordero, but Vazquez Mota had the support of Madero throughout her campaign and in fact defeated him and Santiago Creel. a former interior minister under Vicente Fox, and cousin to Madero.

Meanwhile leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador filed his complaint against the campaign of Pena Nieto, charging he had evidence the campaign overspent their IFE imposed limit. The amount overspent is a reportedly MX $39 million (USD $3,008,284.50).

Lopez Obrador was told at the time the IFE would rule on the case after the July 1st election.

It was not all bad news, as a poll by the Reforma news daily released midweek put Lopez Obrador three percentage points ahead of Vazquez Mota. But the bad news is that both Vazquez Mota and Lopez Obrador are still 20 percentage points behind Pena Nieto, where they have been from the start.

Last week, Pena Nieto spoke to farmers in Tlaxcala state and government workers in Puebla state where he promised additional federal support for municipalities.

Said Pena Nieto: "...my interest is to establish a very strong strategic alliance with all local governments, with state governments bringing resources and effort..."

Understanding the nature of Mexican federalism, his promise had more the tone of a threat.

In Mexico state, his home state, Pena Nieto promised to start an unemployment insurance program.

In Guerrero state Vazquez Mota promised to rescue Guerrerans from kidnapping and murder, promising to be not only the president of education, but also of peace. In Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, she promised to improve government support for tourism.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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Caribbean-Latin America
Mexican Senate advances military justice reforms
2012-04-15

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By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

Human rights groups Thursday lauded the efforts of the Mexican senate in advancing reforms in military justice, to include moving two crimes from the category of crimes -- known as Article 57 of the Mexican Code of Military Justice -- that can only be prosecuted by military prosecutors, to crimes that can only be prosecuted by local civilian prosecutors, even if the suspects are members of Mexico's armed services.

Mexican news reports say Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) senate leader Alejandro Gonzalez Alcocer said that the reforms are expected to be debated next week.

From previous news reports is it difficult to gauge how far along the reforms have moved. Mexican president Felipe Calderon Hinojosa suggested making the changes last fall but in context of advancing a far more important reform, national security. Two of the crimes to be excised from Article 57 are rape and forced disappearances.

As a practical matter, Mexican military personnel can be -- but usually are not -- charged in civilian courts for crimes committed against civilians in the course of counternarcotics and counterinsurgency operations. If a crime victim, or the family of a crime victim goes to a local prosecutor and requests that the incident be investigated, usually the prosecutor will investigate the crime up to a point. However at some point it is has been de riguer since at least the 1990s, for local and state prosecutors and courts to declare their lack of competence in prosecuting such cases in favor of military prosecutors.

The declaration has the same effect of kicking a case out of one level and into a different one, even a higher level such as state and federal courts.

Having military prosecutors investigate and prosecute crimes committed by soldiers against civilians make sense. The prosecutor has access to documents and witnesses that a prosecuting lawyer normally does not have, and understands the military where a local prosecutor may not. In the Drug War military prosecutors are far less likely to be in thrall to criminal groups and to their infiltration. Although theoretically military prosecutors are as susceptible to corruption as their civilian counterparts, military prosecutors are held to higher standards and are often subject to command review.

Unlike civilian prosecutors, reforms implemented during the Vicente Fox administration and afterwards have required a much higher emphasis on human rights by military prosecutors. Secretaria de Defensa Nacional (SEDENA), the controlling agency for the Mexican Army, now has an office whose sole purpose is to look into human right violations.

Human rights groups such as Human Rights Watch have routinely charged for years, absurdly, that military prosecutors do not prosecute military personnel for crimes, the implication being that only civilian prosecutors can make a case against a soldier. A deeper implication is that Mexican soldiers are monsters not held accountable for crimes committed against civilians.

Evidence provided the SEDENA and Secretaria de Gobiernacion (SEGOB) or Interior Ministry shows a different story, however.

Last week, Human Rights Watch issued a news release haranguing the government of Mexico about its slow progress in dealing with human right cases.

The news release purporting to use statistics provided by the La Procuraduria General de Justicia Militar or Attorney General for Military Justice shows that of 3,000 human rights cases filed between January 2007 and July 2011, only 29 military personnel have been convicted for crimes against civilians. Since July, 2011, the military has claimed that of those 3,000 cases, two percent were found to be sustainable, the remaining 98 percent called "jokes" by one unidentified senior field commander.

SEGOB Alejandro Poire released information in November 2011, which clarified the military's involvement in policing its ranks.

In 6,000 operations, presumably to include minor activities such as road patrols, SEDENA claims the National Human Right Commission has received 6,065 human rights complaints of which 98, or 1.61 percent were found to be sustainable as a prosecution.

Similarly, the Mexican Navy has received 800 complaints, of which 17 were sustainable as prosecutions. Poire said in his presentation that less than one percent, or 0.85 percent of the remaining cases, it was found that someone's rights had been violated by the Mexican military. The subtext in Poire's presentation, and one human rights groups refuse to acknowledge, is that Mexican military personnel are subject to investigation and prosecution -- and are being investigated -- when the case is found have a basis and is sustainable.

It is unclear in the serial news releases by Human Rights Watch if their skewing of statistics dealing with human rights violations are honest mistakes or blatant attempts to "cook the books" in favor of their agenda. Human rights organization in additional to advancing their agenda appear also to have mischaracterized a Mexican Corte Suprema de Justicia de la Nacion (SCJN) ruling last year which essentially ordered lower courts to take up human rights cases involving the military, instead of allowing the military to police its own.

However, since that ruling, members of the SCJN have been engaged in discussions attempting to square July's ruling which subordinates Mexican sovereignty to international treaties it has subscribed to, even apparently retroactively.

An article published in March in the El Diario de Coahuila news daily gives a slight glimpse into issues the court is debating. The attempt to reconcile the issues of sovereignty and international treaty obligations has created two opposing camps, one represented by Justice Arturo Zaldivar who said the Mexican constitution and Mexico's obligations under international treaty should be interpreted harmoniously.

The other camp, represented by Justice Olga Sanchez Cordero wants to deal with apparent contradictions by granting the highest level of human rights protection on a case by case basis, without dealing with contradictions or dealing with the degradation to Mexican sovereignty.

The ruling had said that cases involving human rights, even if such violations are not codified under Mexican law, must be investigated as a criminal act, and only by Mexican civilian prosecutors. In practice, critics such as the military and some Mexican legal experts warned at the time, the ruling places 1,200 forced disappearances cases onto civilian prosecutor's desks and places untold numbers, possibly thousands of Mexican prior-service military in potential legal jeopardy. And that is just the cases filed between 1968 and 1982, nearly half of them in one state, Guerrero. Guerrero, the poorest state in Mexico will be likely to resolve but a few of those cases, and those cases under the ruling will stretch prosecutors' budgets thin.

When the concurrent cases of disappeared in Mexico are added, anywhere between 2,000 and 5,000 cases, if it difficult to see how many of them will be resolved to the satisfaction of perfunctory groups such as Human Rights Watch.

Assuming military justice reforms are passed and signed into law, the crimes of rape and forced disappearances will be two that will be the exclusive purview of civilian courts if the victim is civilian. It was promised last fall by President Calderon as a means of advancing another far more sweeping law, the Ley de Seguridad Nacional.

The Ley de Seguiridad Nacional is a proposal which has languished at various stages in the Mexican legislative process since 2009, and gives Mexican field commanders wide latitude in dealing with organized crime, especially in counternarcotics operations. Among the proposals are permitting field commanders to cancel public events, to cut electrical power to an area and to allow the Mexican military to monitor social media such as Twitter and Facebook, as well as others.

But the biggest obstacle to the Ley de Seguridad Nacional is the proviso that allows the Mexican president to declare a state of emergency and apply it to a specific location, such as a state, without first consulting with his cabinet, the Chamber of Deputies, or the Senate, consulting only with his commanders.

A law that permits a nationwide state of emergency exists in Mexico, but the chief executive has a number of hurdles to pass before the state of emergency can be imposed.

For real life and personal reasons, elements of the Mexican left has vehemently opposed the new law. Many of them suffered under a series of Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) presidents, when those executives unleashed the power of their military against hostile and sometimes armed opposition groups.

But aside from the personal reasons, placing such power in the hands of a single group, the president and his military -- already under Mexican law a close-knit group -- doesn't sounds like very sound public policy, but for Mexican organized crime.

The Ley de Seguridad Nacional law had been advancing last year at a brisk pace, passing a court test in May, 2011 and then, suddenly with the advent of Javier Sicilia and his peace group, had insufficient life to survive beyond the last regular session of the Mexican senate. Despite promises made last August by PRI Chamber of Deputies leader Jorge Carlos Ramirez Marin to pass the law in the wake of the Monterrey gaming establishment arson, the law has been tabled. Despite Calderon's best efforts to advance changes in Mexican Code of Military Justice Article 57, no movement has been made to advance the much more sweeping law on national security.

The problem for NGOs such as Human Rights Watch was the informal announcement made by SCJN chief justice Juan Silva Meza the very next day, when he walked the ruling back from its original intent, saying the federal court judges will have the widest latitude in deciding whether human rights cases will proceed, or if those cases will be thrown out.

Human rights groups want to conflate their standards of human rights violations, standards so low as to be non-existent, and up to a point the Mexican legal and political establishment has gone along. But when cases of human rights violations by Mexican military against civilian reaches a much more rigorous and less politically charged level, the federal level, human rights groups may well see their agenda fall apart in the face of the reality of national security.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com
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