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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Ukrainian Perspective: Invasion of Ukraine: June 27, 2026 |
| 2026-06-28 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited [UA.KORRESPONDENT.NET] 18.20 An unmanned emergency mode has been declared in the Moscow region. This was reported on Saturday, June 27, by the press service of the regional system for the prevention and elimination of emergencies. Moscow emergency services are urging local residents to take shelter and are warning of possible disruptions in the mobile Internet. ![]() 17.55 Russian artists continue to cancel summer tours in Crimea. This is reported by Crimea.Realii, analyzing reports from Russian media. In particular, comedian Vladimir Vinokur has canceled tours, the tour of the Todes ballet is in question, concerts of the rock band Radio Tapok, and tours of two theaters have been canceled. 17.05 Two Georgian volunteers died defending Ukraine from Russian aggression. A Georgian publication reports that one of the deceased is Igor Bekurashvili, the other is Georgy Damenia, who lived in Ukraine for several years. 14.35 Seven Ukrainian civilians who were illegally held in captivity in Russia for years have returned home, the Verkhovna Rada Commissioner for Human Rights Dmytro Lubinets announced. "Ukrainians aged 35 to 66 returned to their native land. All of them were illegally detained by the Russians in 2022 during the occupation of Mariupol, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk regions. As for the Kyiv region, this is the Buchansky district, where the occupiers committed atrocities in 2022," the ombudsman emphasized. Lubinets noted that one of the Ukrainians was kidnapped by the Russians from his own home simply because his sons serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Another Ukrainian was kidnapped on his way to work on the day of the Russian invasion. "Among those released is also a volunteer who joined Angela Tyra's brigade in Mariupol in 2022. Tyra, whom we managed to return home earlier, was detained with him that very day," the ombudsman said. 14.17 On the night of June 27, a MiG-29 fighter jet was lost while performing a combat mission in the Poltava region, and the pilot successfully ejected. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this. "We confirm the loss of the aircraft, however, the Ukrainian pilot successfully ejected, contacted the search and rescue team, and was promptly transported to a medical facility for examination and necessary assistance," the message says. The reasons and circumstances are being investigated. 13.48 On June 26 and the night of the 27th, 24 fires of various kinds were registered in the Mykolaiv region, one of which arose as a result of hostilities. In the Kutsurubska community, a field of wheat and dry grass caught fire due to an enemy strike. The fire covered an area of 10 hectares. Rescuers extinguished the fire. There were no injuries. 13.37 Russian troops have used about 1,400 strike drones, almost 1,500 guided bombs, and 19 missiles of various types, including ballistic missiles, in Ukraine over the past week, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. "This week, 15 of our regions have been under Russian attacks. Almost daily shelling of Kherson, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, and Sumy. The Russians are using various types of weapons to attack people, ordinary residential buildings, and our civilian infrastructure. Unfortunately, there are victims of this terror almost every day. And the threat of these Russian attacks remains constant. During the week alone, there were about 1,400 strike drones, almost 1,500 guided aerial bombs, and 19 missiles of various types, including ballistic ones," the head of state noted. Zelensky stressed that strong steps are needed that will force Russia to move towards ending the war. 12.25 Ukrainian Defense Forces hit the Pantsir-S1 anti-aircraft missile and gun complex in Feodosia and the Petropavlovsk car ferry in the Kerch region in temporarily occupied Crimea. The ferry is used to provide military logistics for the Russian army in the southern regions of Ukraine. The results of the hit are being clarified. In addition, Russian control points in the Lyman Pershoy area of the Kharkiv region and Leninsky in the Belgorod region of the Russian Federation were hit, as well as two UAV control points in Luhovy and Kamyansky in the Zaporizhia region. Also, units of the missile forces and artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck the Titan-Barricades enterprise in Volgograd, which specializes in the production of artillery systems, special equipment, and weapons. A hit to an object was recorded, followed by a fire on the territory of the enterprise. The extent of the damage and the results of the damage are being clarified. This is a full-cycle enterprise (from design to serial production) that produces self-propelled launchers and transport-loading vehicles (TGMs) for the Iskander-M operational-tactical missile complex. The enterprise produces launchers and ground units for the Topol-M and Yars strategic missile systems, as well as large-caliber artillery howitzers (Msta-B/Msta-S). 11.58 For the second time in June, the security service struck the Russian Vtorovo oil pumping station, which supplies fuel to Moscow. "Fulfilling the tasks set by President Volodymyr Zelensky within the framework of a 40-day operation to influence the Russian Federation, Alpha soldiers of the SBU carried out successful strikes on the Vtorovo linear production and dispatching station in the Vladimir region of the Russian Federation," the SBU said in a statement. This station is part of Transneft-Upper Volga and is a key logistics hub for pumping light petroleum products to export ports and domestic consumers. It transports diesel fuel to the Moscow Ring Oil Products Pipeline, and from there to large oil depots around Moscow. The station also ensures the supply of petroleum products for export via the ports of the Baltic Sea. According to preliminary information, SBU drones hit the technical buildings of the facility, after which a detonation occurred. 11.11 On the night of June 27, FP-5 Flamingo missiles successfully hit the Titan-Barricades enterprise in Volgograd, Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky announced this on Facebook and showed the moment the missiles were launched. "Tonight, FP-5 Flamingo missiles successfully hit the Titan-Barricades enterprise in Volgograd. This is a large industrial complex where the enemy manufactures artillery systems and special military equipment, including elements of rocket launchers for strikes on our people. A hit was recorded with a subsequent fire on the territory of the plant. I thank the soldiers of our Defense Forces for their accuracy," the head of state wrote. Zelensky noted that the geography of Ukrainian long-range sanctions is constantly expanding. "And it is our pressure that lays the foundation every day for a decent peace to finally come," the president emphasized. 11:00 On the morning of June 27, a Russian drone hit an enterprise in the Chernihiv region, damaging warehouse and utility buildings. This was reported by the head of the OVA Vyacheslav Chaus on Telegram. "In the evening, a 57-year-old civilian man was injured in Semenivka as a result of a strike by an FPV drone. He was hospitalized. A car was also damaged. This morning, a UAV struck an enterprise - warehouse and utility buildings were damaged," he wrote. Chaus also said that yesterday morning the enemy attacked a Gerbera farm in the village of Horodna community. The roof caught fire. In Horodna itself, there were strikes late in the evening on one of the enterprises. A fire broke out at the site of the strike. A truck was damaged. A truck was damaged in a drone strike in the village of Novgorod-Siverskyi community in the evening. In another village, a grain barn and a local shop were damaged - the strike took place this morning. "Again, there were a lot of FPV drones in the border area. In total, there were 47 attacks per day," the head of the OVA noted. 10.45 On the night of June 27, Russian troops carried out a massive drone attack on one of the districts of Sumy region, resulting in 10 people being injured. This was reported by the head of the OVA, Oleg Grigorov, on Telegram. "At night, Russian drones carried out a massive strike on the Okhtyrsky district. In the city and nearby communities, there are hits on private homes, as well as on the territory of gas stations," he wrote. According to the military, the Russians used a large number of drones. Some of the drones flew at low altitudes, which made them difficult to detect and shoot down. The head of the OVA reported that a 53-year-old resident of the Kyrykivska community received serious injuries. The woman was hospitalized with burns, she is currently in serious condition. Nine more people sought medical help. They were provided with the necessary assistance on the spot. 10.23 In Zaporizhia, the number of people injured as a result of Russian air strikes on the night of June 27 has increased to nine people, including two children. The Russian attack caused extensive damage to the city's civilian infrastructure. In particular, a residential high-rise building was partially destroyed. Emergency workers rescued two people from the rubble. Another airstrike hit the school grounds. Nearby high-rise buildings, private property, and cars were also damaged. 09.50 On the night of June 27, Russian military attacked gas stations in Zaporizhia and Kharkiv regions. In Zaporizhia, a gas tank and an administrative building caught fire as a result of the strike. There were no fatalities or injuries. Rescuers quickly extinguished the fire. In the Kharkiv region, two gas stations in the Solonytsivska community of the Kharkiv district were under attack. On the territory of one of the gas stations, a building was destroyed as a result of the strike and a fire broke out on an area of 400 sq. m., 10 pieces of equipment were damaged. At another address, an enemy strike damaged the building of an operator's gas station. There were no casualties. 09.32 The Ukrainian Navy destroyed a boat that was trying to provide logistical support to the Russian invaders on the Tendri Spit. 09.11 On the night of June 27, Russia attacked Ukraine with 129 Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas attack UAVs and Parodia simulator drones. Air defense forces neutralized 113 drones. Air defenses shot down/suppressed 113 enemy Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas and other types of drones in the north, south and east of the country. 13 strike UAVs were hit at seven locations, as well as the fall of downed ones (fragments) at three locations. 08.47 On the night of June 27, FP-5 Flamingo missiles hit one of the key enterprises of the Russian military-industrial complex in Volgograd. This was reported by Serhiy Sternenko, an advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine on increasing the effectiveness of the use of drones at the front, on Telegram. According to him, the Federal Scientific and Production Center Titan-Barricades produces, in particular, launchers for the Yars and Topol-M strategic missile systems, launchers for the Iskander-M OTRK, artillery pieces and barrels for the Msta-S self-propelled guns. Previously, three facilities on the plant's territory were affected: workshop No. 2, the production building of workshop No. 38, as well as a workshop of unknown purpose. 08.25 Over the past 24 hours, 256 combat clashes took place on the front. The largest number of assault actions was recorded in the Pokrovsky direction - 31. 07.26 From February 24, 2022 to June 27, 2026, the total combat losses of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine amounted to approximately 1,399,720 people (+1,350 per day). 04.30 Explosions were heard in Volgograd, Russia, amid a declared missile threat. Local residents filmed missile flights, which OSINTers identified as Ukrainian Flamingo missiles. According to preliminary data, the target of the attack was the Titan-Barricade plant, which is engaged in heavy engineering, the production of artillery systems, special equipment and weapons. At least two missiles were recorded hitting. 01.18 A Russian UAV hit a private house in the Sumy district on Friday evening. The owner of the house was killed. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Ukrainian Perspective: Invasion of Ukraine: February 21, 2026 |
| 2026-02-22 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited [Korrespondent] 22.59 The task of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, during the negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is to prevent the enemy from advancing. This is stated in his interview with the French newspaper Le Monde. ![]() 22.48 The Russian-Ukrainian war has not reached a dead end. The Russian Federation's goals for 2025 were much more ambitious than the aggressor's real achievements. This was stated by the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, in an interview with Le Monde. 22.39 Russia has threatened South Korea with a "response" for possibly joining military supplies to Ukraine. The threat came against the backdrop of news that Korean media outlets had reported the day before. This was stated by the official spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, whose threats were quoted by the Russian ministry on Telegram. 21.25 The Ukrainian Defense Forces are making progress in the south – in the direction of the settlements of Pavlivka, Uspenivka, and Ternuvaty in Zaporizhia region. This was stated by an officer of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Andriy Tkachuk on the air of My – Ukraine. The successes were achieved thanks to a successful combination of conditions and preparatory work carried out by the Ukrainian defense forces. These conditions include not only blocking the Starlink satellite communication systems for the occupiers, but also the enemy's transfer of a large number of reserves to the Pokrovsko-Myrnograd direction. 19:37 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed with Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Rustem Umerov the preparation of new negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation. This is evidenced by the evening video address of the head of state published on Facebook. 18.26 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about a telephone conversation with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. He wrote about this on the social network X. "Spoken with Mark Rutte. We coordinated positions on all key issues of our diplomatic work," the head of state wrote. 17.44 The Ukrainian Defense Forces launched a series of strikes on Russian equipment and facilities in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine. Two ships, two aircraft and a heavy multiple rocket launcher system were hit. This was reported by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. 17.14 On the night of February 21, the Defense Forces launched strikes with Flamingo cruise missiles on the territory of the Russian Federation. The military hit the Votkinsk plant, which produces intercontinental ballistic missiles, and other facilities were also hit. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this on Telegram. 16.29 Satellite imagery showing the aftermath of the strike on the Redkino chemical plant in Russia's Tver region has appeared online, Radio Liberty reported, which published a video clip. 15.27 The Naftogorsk Gas Processing Plant (GPZ) in the Samara region was attacked by drones on the night of February 21. A large fire broke out there. After the explosions that occurred at the facility, photos and videos from the area of the Neftegorsk GPP, where the fire was raging, appeared on the Internet. 14.22 Journalists have identified the names of 186,102 Russian servicemen who have died since the start of the full-scale war with Ukraine. This was reported the day before in a joint article by the BBC Russian Service, Mediazona and a team of volunteers, prepared on the basis of open data. 13.47 Two men were detained in the city of Kamianske for committing hooliganism against military personnel. This was reported by the National Police Department of the Dnipropetrovsk region. A group of six unknown individuals attacked soldiers of the Aydaru Regiment. One of the attackers used a firearm. 12.56 President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed decrees implementing the decision of the National Security and Defense Council on sanctions against 225 captains of vessels of the Russian shadow fleet and entities serving the Russian military-industrial complex. This was reported by the press service of the head of state. 11.49 Drones that look very similar to Russian strike "Shaheeds" attacked Tatarstan. This was reported by the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation (CDC) of the National Security and Defense Council Andriy Kovalenko. 11.11 Ukrainian military destroyed a Russian Tornado-S (Smerch) multiple launch rocket system in the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhia region. This was reported by the commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Robert "Madyar" Brovdi. 10:00 This morning, Russians attacked a minibus in Kherson with a drone. Three people are currently known to have been injured, the local OVA reported. 09.36 At night, the enemy massively attacked the Odessa region with strike drones. Two people were injured, reported the head of the OVA, Oleg Kiper. At least five private homes, a four-apartment building, several garages and cars were destroyed. A high school and energy company warehouses were damaged. 09.15 On Saturday night, Russian aggressors launched one Iskander-M ballistic missile and 120 drones of various types into Ukraine. Air defense and electronic warfare units intercepted/suppressed the vast majority of enemy targets, the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported. 08.59 Russian aggressors carried out an airstrike on Sumy. Three people were injured, including two children. The National Police reported this. 08.44 Over the past 24 hours, 175 combat clashes were recorded on the front. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this in an operational update. The largest number of battles was recorded in the Pokrovsky direction, where our defenders stopped 39 assaults in the areas of 12 settlements. 08.23 Russian Belgorod was fired at twice with rockets at night. This was reported by the so-called governor of the Belgorod region, Vyacheslav Gladkov. According to him, emergency crews did not even begin to work at night, but will only begin assessing the damage during daylight hours. 08.00 Russian aggressors have carried out almost 700 attacks on 36 settlements in Zaporizhia region over the past 24 hours. Seven people were injured, reported the head of the OVA Ivan Fedorov. 07.39 Over the past 24 hours, the Russian occupation army has lost 1,010 servicemen killed and wounded on the front in Ukraine. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported this in an operational report. The Ukrainian military destroyed more than 1,750 units of Russian equipment, including a helicopter, 42 guns, and two MLRS. 07.23 As a result of a drone attack on the Russian Udmurtia, 11 people were injured. This was reported by the so-called Minister of Health of the region, Sergey Bagin. A key enterprise of the Russian military-industrial complex was attacked in the city of Votkinsk - a plant that produces Iskander-M, Topol-M, and Oreshnik missiles. 06.04 UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed his vision of a just peace for Ukraine, which should guarantee the full territorial integrity of the state. The Secretary-General emphasized that peace for Ukraine should include ensuring its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity within internationally recognized borders. This should be in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter, the norms of international law and adopted UN resolutions. 04.05 On the night of Saturday, February 21, drones struck the Neftegorsk gas processing plant in the Samara region of the Russian Federation, causing five of the company's tanks to catch fire. 03.03 On the night of Saturday, February 21, Russian troops launched strike drones over Odessa. The attack damaged infrastructure facilities, four residential buildings, and an educational institution. 01.36 On Friday evening and Saturday night, February 21, Russian occupation forces launched an attack on Zaporizhia using drones. The enemy's attack was aimed at the transport infrastructure of the regional center, the head of the region noted. As a result of the strike, a car caught fire in one of the city's districts, and several other cars were damaged. Windows were broken in multi-story buildings. There is no information about casualties. 01.02 On the evening of Friday, February 20, in the city of Votkinsk, in the Russian Udmurtia, a key enterprise of the Russian military-industrial complex was attacked - a plant that produces Iskander-M, Topol-M and Oreshnik missiles. According to Ukrainian intelligence, the strike on the Votkinsk plant was carried out by Flamingo missiles. The distance from Votkinsk to the Ukrainian border is approximately one and a half thousand kilometers. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| 'Bush was hypnotized!': How the US deprived Ukraine of nuclear weapons |
| 2026-02-04 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Mikhail Moshkin and Dmitry Gubin [REGNUM] For the first time in half a century, the world may face a lack of mandatory restrictions on the nuclear arsenals of Russia and the United States, as stated by the UN leadership on January 3. The fate of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) is in serious doubt. All that remains is to remember the era when the system of nuclear checks and balances wasn't destroyed by the Americans. But there was a time when Washington played by the rules. On February 3, 1994, a decision was made in Kyiv that – as it seemed at the time – would make the post-Soviet space more secure. The Verkhovna Rada ratified two documents. The first was the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (now known as START I), which was concluded as a bilateral agreement between the United States and the USSR back in 1991. The second document was the Lisbon Protocol, an amendment to START I that formalized the consequences of the collapse of the Soviet Union. By approving the treaty and protocol, Ukraine joined the "club" of post-Soviet republics that have given their approval to renounce their status as nuclear powers and to remove to Russia their nuclear arsenals, which remained after the collapse of the USSR. The world breathed a sigh of relief – the danger of uncontrolled “spread” of warheads across the planet was partially removed. "A PICTURE OF FUTURE NUCLEAR CHAOS" Journalists following the debates in the Verkhovna Rada (which the Russian press at the time referred to literally as the Supreme Council) reported that the vote was preceded by two weeks of heated parliamentary debate. This was still a novelty at the time. But the first president, Leonid Kravchuk, managed to push through the necessary decision. "The coordinated actions of the president and ministers who spoke at the session played a role: each speech added dark colors to the sad picture of future nuclear chaos in the country and Ukraine's isolation on the international stage," Kommersant reported from Kiev. 32 years later, the details of the discussion in the Rada sound like something from a parallel reality. President Kravchuk cited the conclusion of Russian nuclear safety experts: the continued presence of nuclear warheads in Ukraine, if used improperly, threatens unpredictable consequences. At the same time, then-Foreign Minister Anatoly Zlenko warned that if Kyiv did not renounce its nuclear weapons in favor of Russia, Western economic aid to Ukraine would be jeopardized. The young republic, Zlenko warned, would be on the brink of international isolation. Nationally conscious elements who demanded that the nuclear shield be retained as a means of putting pressure on the "Muscovites" (their opinion was defended by recent dissidents, and in 1994 by Rada deputies Stepan Khmara and Levko Lukyanenko ) found themselves in the minority. The call of another fighter for "independence" was also not heard: in 1994, the head of the Lviv regional council, Vyacheslav Chornovol, who proposed at least negotiating with Washington and Moscow about preserving Ukraine's nuclear status. The people's deputies voted "as they should." Perhaps the speech in the Rada by Ukrainian Defense Minister Vitaly Radetsky, who threatened a "second Chernobyl," played a role. But in reality, the final say rested with Washington. And Democrat Bill Clinton, like his Republican predecessor, Bush Sr., clearly did not want to see Ukraine become a nuclear power. So to understand the context, we need to go back to the time of the elder Bush, in 1991. WHAT DID START I MEAN? On July 31, three weeks before the State Emergency Committee putsch and five months before the Belovezh Accords, Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev and his American counterpart George W. Bush signed the START treaty in Moscow. The parties took on the following obligations: to have in their nuclear triad (land, sea, air basing) no more than 1,600 strategic carriers of nuclear weapons - missiles and bombers - and no more than six thousand warheads on these carriers. In particular, Russia, the successor to the USSR, halved its arsenal of one of the main "arguments" in the Cold War, in compliance with START I. This involved the R-36M2 Voevoda heavy intercontinental ballistic missiles (NATO designation: Satan SS-18), assembled at Yuzhmash in Dnipropetrovsk. START I introduced a ban on the possession of air-launched ballistic missiles (ALBMs) and orbital rockets. Thus, the latest Soviet developments were scrapped. For example, the Krechet-R missiles (which could be carried by the Tu-160K bomber) and the R-36orb orbital warhead missiles. The movement of mobile missile launchers was limited to certain areas with clearly defined coordinates. It was assumed that the USSR and the USA would “comprehensively exchange” data on the state of their nuclear arsenals, which included inspections and surveys of military-industrial complex enterprises. For example, the United States expressed interest in the Votkinsk plant in Udmurtia, which is responsible, among other things, for the production of Topol-M missiles. In exchange, the Americans provided access to a facility in Utah where Peacekeeper ballistic missiles and mobile launchers were assembled. START I remained in effect until 2009. The American side approached its implementation rather cunningly, as our Foreign Ministry recorded in 2001. The warheads and second stages of the missiles were not destroyed, but stored. Only the first stages of the MX intercontinental ballistas were disposed of (supposedly this was sufficient), and submarine-launch telemetry was not fully transmitted. And the separate plant in Utah, which our inspectors could have visited, was shut down by the Americans. Washington clearly interpreted START I to its advantage. But by the time Gorbachev and Bush signed the treaty in the summer of 1991, the Soviet Union could no longer sustain the arms race. Moreover, the "new thinking" and the policy of détente implied utmost trust in their American partners. The United States, meanwhile, could celebrate victory in the Cold War, the "end of history," and the beginning of planetary dominance. But another consequence of this geopolitical victory—the disintegration of the USSR into 15 "young democracies"—somewhat complicated the American game. CHICKEN KIEV IS NOT TO THE TASTE OF NATIONALISTS On the day of the signing of START I, July 31, 1991, Bush Sr. (who arrived in Moscow with his wife, Barbara ) met informally with Mikhail Sergeyevich and Raisa Maksimovna in Novo-Ogaryovo, near Moscow. At the time, the US President assured them that the collapse of the USSR was not in American interests. Signals had previously been sent to Moscow from overseas, saying that Pentagon chief Dick Cheney (who became vice president under George W. Bush), but not the US president, was in favor of dismembering the “evil empire.” Confirming his desire to see the Union united, Bush emphasized that on August 1 he would travel to Kyiv, where he would dissuade the leadership of the Ukrainian SSR from declaring independence. In fact, the US President went to support Leonid Kravchuk, at that time the Chairman of the Supreme Soviet of the Ukrainian SSR, a member of the Politburo of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Ukraine and the Central Committee of the CPSU. Kravchuk was considered a moderate reformer. At the time, he advocated for Ukrainian independence, but within the framework of a "renewed" Union, with a weakened but still in-control Moscow center. It was precisely this option that seemed to suit the US administration in the summer of 1991: the Soviet Union admitted defeat in the battle with America, but at the same time, 1/6 of the land would not be transformed into a “greater Yugoslavia.” Immediately upon arriving in Kyiv, the overseas guest delivered a speech in the Verkhovna Rada that was categorically disliked by both the Ukrainian political establishment and Republican Party hawks like Cheney. A pillar of American journalism, Pulitzer Prize winner and Nixon's speechwriter, the editor-in-chief of The New York Times, William Safire, condemned the president, calling his speech a "Chicken Kiev speech" (here a play on words: Chicken Kiev is a "chicken Kiev", and chicken, "chicken", can also be translated as "cowardly"). Twenty-three days before Ukraine declared independence, the US President stated the following verbatim in Kyiv: "Americans will not support those who seek independence to replace distant tyranny with local despotism. They will not assist those who promote a suicidal nationalism based on ethnic hatred." Prophetic and true words, but behind them lay a practical calculation: better a weakened but predictable Gorbachev with Soviet nuclear weapons than a chaotic but aggressive nation-state with a nuclear arsenal. For this, he was awarded by the Kiev “political establishment” approximately the same thing that Donald Trump now receives (at certain moments) – the title of almost an agent of the Kremlin. " Bush came here... as Gorbachev's mouthpiece. He sounded less radical than our own communist politicians on issues of Ukraine's sovereignty," said Ivan Drach, leader of the People's Movement party. He also suggested that Gorbachev hypnotized his colleague. "Why didn't he call on Kuwait to sign an alliance treaty with Iraq?" quipped Stepan Pavlyuk, a prominent ethnic policy expert from Lviv. HALF-LIFE OF A NON-PEACEFUL ATOM But after August 1991, not without the participation of the winner of the State Emergency Committee and the “party bureaucrats” Boris Yeltsin, the centrifugal processes accelerated. The prominent party member, Comrade Kravchuk, found himself in the role of the founding father of Ukrainian statehood and one of the gravediggers of the Soviet Union in Belovezhskaya Pushcha. The USSR never managed to ratify START I before its collapse. Its implementation took place under different historical circumstances. In December 1991, the world nuclear club was joined by four new members: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The Russian Federation was recognized as the legal successor to the USSR and all its obligations, including START I. But “it was unclear whether the nuclear arsenals in the territories of three countries” —Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Ukraine—were covered by the Treaty, notes Olga Alexandria, associate professor at the Faculty of World Politics at Moscow State University, in a paper dedicated to the 20th anniversary of the Lisbon Protocol. While there were no particular problems with Minsk and Alma-Ata from the very beginning, they arose with Kiev, although at first nothing foreshadowed trouble. On October 24, 1991, when the Soviet Union had not yet been dissolved, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted a statement "On Nuclear-Free Status," which declared the presence of nuclear weapons on this territory to be temporary. It is clear that it was not without Washington's influence that Kyiv declared that Ukraine recognizes the START and wishes to subsequently join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a non-nuclear state. However, a caveat was made: “Ukraine insists on its right to control the non-use of nuclear weapons located on its territory.” During the dissolution of the USSR, the Agreement on Joint Measures Regarding Nuclear Weapons of December 21, 1991, was signed in Alma-Ata. In addition to general provisions, it addresses "the transfer of nuclear weapons from the territories of the Republic of Belarus, the Republic of Kazakhstan, and Ukraine to the territory of the RSFSR for the purpose of their destruction." Negotiations began on how to handle the removal of warheads. While all tactical weapons stockpiles had been removed to Russia by the spring of 1992, strategic weapons required a separate document to document their removal. This was the Lisbon Protocol of May 23, 1992, signed by the heads of the Foreign Ministries of the post-Soviet states and the US State Department. It speaks of the responsibility of states until Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan become completely nuclear-free and sign the non-proliferation treaty to that effect. YOU CAN'T TAKE IT OUT, YOU CAN LEAVE IT Boris Yeltsin, then-Belarusian leader Stanislav Shushkevich, and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev ratified the treaty, along with the Lisbon Protocol, promptly and without delay. But Kyiv, led by Kravchuk, decided to negotiate and obtain a profit, preferably in hard currency, for the removal of the strategic missiles. The Ukrainian government estimated compensation for nuclear-free status at $2.8 billion (the US initially agreed to $175 million) and demanded security guarantees from all powers officially possessing nuclear weapons. That is, not only from the signatories of the START and the Lisbon Protocol, but also from France, Great Britain and China. And while the debates continued in the Verkhovna Rada, the world was unsure how to deal with this rogue country. During this time, Bush was replaced by Clinton, but a decision had to be made no matter what. Meanwhile, in Kyiv, they either wanted to discuss the matter in detail, or demanded another security agreement, or even cited the constitutional crisis to avoid making a decision. Some figures tried to link the ratification of the treaty with the resolution of the issue of dividing the Black Sea Fleet. The amount of compensation was also discussed in the hope that the Democrats would not be as greedy as the Republicans: similar to how in today's Kyiv they are expecting the Trumpists to lose the congressional elections. On November 18, 1993, while Moscow was recovering from the "second coup," the Verkhovna Rada in Kyiv appeared to approve START I, but in a highly unusual form. Nuclear weapons were to be reduced, but "gradually" and incrementally, retaining 36% of delivery vehicles and 42% of warheads. The Lisbon Protocol was to be signed, but without the clause on joining the Non-Proliferation Treaty. In Moscow and, more importantly at the time, in Washington, this "read it here, don't read it here" attitude was not appreciated. Kravchuk proved more understanding, and in January 1994, he signed the Trilateral Agreement with Clinton and Yeltsin. According to it, nuclear weapons were to be removed from Ukraine immediately, not "sometime later." And so, on February 3, the corresponding decision passed through the Rada, and on November 16, 1994, it ratified the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (301 votes “for”, 8 “against”). THERE WILL BE NO BOMB - GUARANTEED Ukraine, which was then already led by Leonid Kuchma, demanded “security guarantees” as it does now. It was then, on December 5, 1994, that the famous Budapest Memorandum was adopted. In exchange for Kuchma's declaration of non-nuclear status, Clinton, Yeltsin, and British Prime Minister John Major declared their respect for Ukraine's sovereignty and renounced the use of nuclear weapons against it. His Budapest paragraphs implied that Washington, London and Moscow were consulting with each other. But the memorandum did not say how Ukraine would behave in this regard and what would happen to it if it did not comply with the obligations it had undertaken. Since the early 2000s, as Russia's real sovereignty was restored, the United States—in order to maintain its status as the Cold War's victor and hegemon—has embarked on a course of dismantling the system of nuclear treaty restraints. The process, which began with the US withdrawal from the ABM Treaty in 2002, logically culminated in the current "death" of the New START agreement. As for the Budapest promises made to Ukraine, when it lost its legitimate power in 2014 and embarked on a course of ethnic cleansing and war with Russia, the validity of the memorandum became more than questionable. For the territorial integrity of the country has become meaningless under such conditions if human life, language and religious beliefs are considered valuable. In 2015, acting president Oleksandr Turchynov regretted that Ukraine had become nuclear-free. On February 19, 2022, in Munich, Volodymyr Zelenskyy threatened to invalidate the memorandum and demanded consultations in accordance with it: "Ukraine will have every right to believe that the Budapest Memorandum is not working, and all the package of decisions from 1994 are called into question." The emerging prospect of "renuclearization" of the aggressive Kyiv regime became one of the decisive factors in the launch of the Russian Armed Forces' special military operation. Today's Europe—unlike in the mid-1990s—seems not to fear military and political chaos in Ukraine. The potential return of Democrats to the US Congress in 2026 and the White House in 2028 promises to open a new supply line to Kyiv (if we recall the times of Joe Biden ). But even if we assume that the West will bet on restoring Ukraine's nuclear fist, it will be extremely difficult to reverse the situation: the last nuclear charge was removed from its territory on May 21, 1996, and by January 2002, not a single strategic bomber remained there. Russia will definitely not allow nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Related: Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty: 2026-01-26 Medvedev: The US must respond to the New START extension by February 5 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty: 2025-11-05 The US has proposed concluding a treaty with Russia on tactical nuclear weapons Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty: 2025-10-29 A new START Treaty requires a different atmosphere in relations with the US – Lavrov |
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| Science & Technology |
| Review of the Russian Nuclear Deterrent Forces-2023 |
| 2023-12-31 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. Text taken from an article which appeared on telegra.ph [ColonelCassad] At the end of the year, it’s time to strike a balance on Russian strategic nuclear forces, fortunately, a fair amount of official information has been added. In general, the nuclear factor was mentioned quite often this year, with or without reason; accordingly, we note the quote from the Supreme Commander-in-Chief: “In the context of the changing nature of military threats and the emergence of new military-political risks, the role of the nuclear triad, which ensures the balance of forces, the strategic balance, has grown significantly forces in the world" As usual, we cannot live without percentages of the "level of modernity of weapons." In the strategic nuclear forces declared in general - 95%, in particular in the strategic nuclear forces - “almost 100%”. The mention of the strategic nuclear forces clearly indicates that only missiles are taken into account in this case, because boats of Project 667BDRM cannot in any way be considered modern, unlike the completely modern SLBM R-29RMU2/2.1 “Sineva”/“Liner”. The construction of infrastructure for strategic complexes with unlimited-range nuclear cruise missiles "Burevestnik" and carriers of unmanned underwater vehicles "Poseidon" continues - another reminder that the programs are not closed. This is especially true for the Burevestnik, which, even though, according to officials, was successfully tested not so long ago, still remains a very mysterious product. Russia and the United States continue to notify each other at least 24 hours in advance of any planned launches of ICBMs and SLBMs, and this is good. At the same time, our early warning system detected 78 launches of ballistic missiles and 168 launches of launch vehicles in 2023 (until an unspecified date). Traditionally, no one showed us the breakdown, and in general, more than two hundred launches of space rockets have already happened in the world this year. However, nothing new. Now for the individual “legs” of the nuclear triad. According to the Strategic Missile Forces, the share of modern weapons “until the end of 2023” now 88%, with land-based ICBMs accounting for the largest number of carriers and charges in the nuclear triad, approximately 60% of the total “ceiling” under the suspended New START Treaty. We are probably talking about ~420 deployed carriers with ~930 nuclear warheads. The ratio of carriers in the PGRK and silos, i.e. in mobile and stationary groups, approximately equal, but the latter have slightly more warheads. The last missile regiment with the Topol PGRK was re-equipped with the Yars in 2023 - as usual, the specific modification (-S, -M, you understand) is not indicated. “The re-equipment to the modern Avangard missile system has been completed.” We can probably assume the completion of the deployment of ICBMs with a hypersonic glide unit in its current form with the UR-100N UTTH as a “booster”. By the way, the prospects for the appearance of PCBs on lighter PGRKs are quite directly indicated, and the corresponding R&D is underway. Will wait. “By the end of the year, 15 launchers of the Yars and Avangard missile systems will be put on combat duty in the strategic missile forces - apparently, we can actually consider it a fait accompli. It seems that they have not forgotten about the infrastructure for missile divisions and their combat duty; 592 “high-tech facilities” have been announced. In 2024, the main task is to place the heavy Sarmat ICBM on combat duty in Uzhur, i.e. in the attack 62nd missile division. Whether it is there on experimental combat duty, as was reported in the fall, is unknown. Frankly, we were expecting something symbolic already under this Christmas tree, well, there, the activation of a regiment from a command post and a pair of silos, but it seems that we will be left without a reason for jokes. The number of ICBM launches for 2024 has been announced again, namely seven. We assume. By the end of 2025, they promise to complete equipping the 28th Missile Division with silo-based Yars. Near Kozelsk, work is proceeding slowly but progressively. Separately, we would like to point out that it was in the context of the ministerial visit to these guys that active protection systems for silos against enemy high-precision weapons were mentioned, but, apparently, for now we are talking exclusively about electronic countermeasures and camouflage. Apparently from 2026-2027. we can expect the beginning of the replacement of the Topol-M ICBMs, which still seem to be in good condition, but nothing lasts forever, especially if it is something - a solid propellant rocket engine. On the agenda, as you know, is the 60th missile division in Tatishchevo (SPU) and two missile regiments with a PGRK from the Teikov missile division. But what they will be re-equipped with - modifications of the Yars or something new (remember, they mentioned Aspen, Kedr... Anchar...) - that’s the question. In general, at this stage there are no plans to change the ratio of the PGRK and silo launchers, nor is the formation of new formations and units planned. Well, fine. Yes, it should also be noted that “if necessary” the Strategic Missile Forces can “in the shortest possible time” receive medium or shorter range missiles. Probably this question answers the subordination of at least the MRBM in the Russia of the Future, but with the CBMD and BRMD the question may remain open. #MoratoriumLive ! The Long-Range Aviation unit received four Tu-160Ms (obviously including modernized ones), which even exceeds the three aircraft announced in 2022. The delivery of two Tu-160Ms (apparently new construction) is planned for 2024. Also mentioned are “completely new aircraft, on new principles, with new aerodynamic and combat qualities.” It’s difficult to guess here, PAK DA is unlikely to reach this stage, and what’s new from the point of view of aerodynamics in the Tu-160M and even the Tu-22M3M is not very clear. Yes, don’t forget, the dagger-bearing MiG-31Is are also in the YES, no one is particularly shy about talking about this. In terms of the naval component, everything is quite simple and progressive: the SSBN “Emperor Alexander III” of Project 955A has been adopted, at the end of 2024 it is planned to transfer the SSBN “Prince Pozharsky” of Project 955A to the fleet, and the only surprise is the plan to return the SSBN K-117 “ Bryansk" of project 667BDRM after completion of the medium repair in November 2024. To summarize: our strategic nuclear forces remain the most important element of strategic deterrence. The processes of rearmament and modernization are progressing quite steadily, but not without some rough edges. First of all, Sarmat and PAK DA are causing concern, but we are not particularly worried about new nuclear-powered toys. No particularly new details have appeared about the strategic nuclear forces combat control systems, which, in principle, is not surprising. It needs to be better and more sustainable - well, no one argues. True, overseas counterparties have recently begun to look at this more closely - perhaps we will be pleased with a new level of transparency. But obviously not today and not tomorrow. Perhaps the main conclusion is the imperceptible desire for quantitative growth. This is good, this is correct, my head hurts about something else now. No one should have any doubts about the possibility of delivering a crushing blow in accordance with the Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia violating treaty, developing missile |
| 2009-10-23 |
| Republicans in the Senate are gearing up to battle the Obama administration over the high-priority plan to finish a new arms-control treaty with Russia before the end of the year. Sen. Jon Kyl, Arizona Republican and No. 2 Republican Senate leader, recently identified a key issue that is likely to complicate the administration's plan: Russia for years has been violating the current Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which is set to expire Dec. 5. Mr. Kyl said in a Senate floor speech Oct. 19 that Russia's development of a new multiple-warhead RS-24 missile that was tested as recently as May 2007 violates the current treaty. "That would be illegal for the Russians to deploy under START. So why are they testing it?" Mr. Kyl asked. "In this case, it appears the Russians have cheated - if not in the letter of the START agreement, at least in its spirit - by converting one of their existing missiles, the Topol-M, to this new multiple-warhead variant," he said. The new missile is also known as the SS-27 by the Pentagon. The argument of Mr. Kyl and others concerned with the administration's rush to conclude a new treaty is over how a new agreement can be reached when there is evidence that the Russians failed to abide by the old one. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia to deploy regiment of RS-24 ballistic missiles in late 2009 |
| 2009-05-07 |
| Russia will put the first regiment of new-generation RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missiles into service in late 2009, the Strategic Missile Forces (SMF) commander said on Thursday. "We plan to put the first regiment of mobile [RS-24] missile systems equipped with multiple re-entry vehicle warheads into service by the end of this year," Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov said. The RS-24 ICBM, which will replace the older SS-18 and SS-19 missiles by 2050, is expected to greatly strengthen the SMF's strike capability, as well as that of its allies until the mid-21st century, Solovtsov said. The missile will be deployed both in silos and on mobile platforms, and together with the Topol-M single-warhead ICBM will constitute the core of Russia's SMF in the future, he added. He also said the SMF would conduct at least 14 missile test launches, including space launches, in 2009. "We are planning 14 launches for various purposes, including the testing of missile components and warheads, the extension of missiles' service life, and space launches," Solovtsov said. The SMF reportedly has a total of 538 ICBMs, including 306 SS-25 Sickle (Topol) missiles, 88 SS-18 Satan (Voyevoda) and 56 SS-27 Stalin (Topol-M) missiles. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia boosts nuclear spending with order of 70 strategic missiles |
| 2008-12-23 |
| Russia is to increase sharply its production of strategic nuclear missiles, throwing down the gauntlet to the US president-elect, Barack Obama, who would have to deal with the Kremlin's response to US missile defence plans in Europe. A senior government official in Moscow said the Russian military would commission 70 strategic missiles over the next three years. It was unclear whether sea-launched ballistic missiles were included in this figure, but military experts said it could represent up to a fourfold increase on the rate of production of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The missiles would be part of a £95bn defence procurement package for 2009-2011, said Vladislav Putilin, a deputy head of the Russian cabinet's military-industrial commission in charge of weapons industries. Russia has produced only five to seven Topol-M ICBMs a year since the late 1990s and its stockpiles of several hundred heavy Soviet-era missiles such as the SS-19 Stiletto are rapidly reaching the end of their lifespan. Putilin told a press conference the defence package represented a 28% increase on the previously announced procurement budget for 2009, with further increases in the following two years. "More than 70 strategic missiles will be bought and delivered to troops in the next three years, more than 30 short-range Iskander missiles and a large number of booster rockets and aircraft," he said. Military experts said the increased procurement of ICBMs was an attempt by Russia's depleted armed forces to produce a bargaining chip in negotiations with Washington over signing a new arms reduction treaty to replace Start I. The Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, has signalled his intention to take an aggressive stance with the new US administration. On the day Obama was elected Medvedev announced plans to station short-range Iskander missiles in Russia's Kaliningrad exclave if the US goes ahead with building a missile defence system in Europe. Ruben Sergeev, an expert on disarmament issues, said Moscow was afraid of falling behind in a new arms race. "Russia is decommissioning its old liquid-fuel missiles from the Soviet era at a rate of several dozen every year," he said. "The Kremlin knows that if it doesn't increase production of ICBMs rapidly, then it will have no chance of getting a new arms reduction treaty out of the United States, which has much greater quantities of missiles." The Start I treaty, signed between the Soviet Union and the US, expires in December next year, with negotiations on a new deal expected to start in the spring. Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, said last week that the treaty needed to be "preserved and strengthened". He added: "Without the mutual control agreements embodied in the Start treaty, Russia, as the weaker partner, would lose all possibilities to keep tabs on the Americans' quickly developing strategic nuclear forces." |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Moscow Resumes Annual Military Parade, But On V-E Day, Not May Day |
| 2008-01-19 |
| Full-scale, Soviet-style military parades with displays of tanks and other military hardware will return to Red Square beginning May 9. The decision to resume this public display of military might was reportedly taken at a January 12 meeting of top Russian military leaders. The new Topol-M (SS-27) mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles will also roll past the reviewing stands near the Kremlin wall. The parade is timed to celebrate VE-Day, the end of the European portion of World War II. The planned high-profile parade will apparently coincide with the inauguration of the next Russian president, presumably Dmitry Medvedev, whom Vladimir Putin has designated as his successor. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| Russia arms itself with sophisticated missile systems |
| 2007-10-27 |
Russian Strategic Missile Forces Commander Genernal Nikolai Solovstov said here Friday that RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) with fusion warheads would be actually used by Russian forces within three years' time.Russian experts are now bent on conducting a series of tests on such missiles before they are put into actual service, Solovstov told a news conference. Russia conducted successful tests for the use of RS-24 ICBM in May. However, he added that Russian Missile Forces would be armed with new missile systems in the foreseeable future, but he failed to reveal the exact type of such systems. Furthermore, Russian armed forces will be supplied with additional sophisticated Topol-M missiles before the end of this year, he said, voicing confidence that Russia was able to reproduce medium and short-range missile systems within a definite period of time. Russia had destroyed its full stockpile of medium and short-range missiles pursuant to a relevant treaty it signed with the US in 1989. But, Moscow warns that it would quit the agreement if Washington goes ahead with the planned deployment of a missile shield system in Europe. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia | |
| Russia to continue advanced missile tests in 2007 | |
| 2007-09-02 | |
| MOSCOW, September 1 (RIA Novosti) - Russia's Strategic Missile Forces will conduct more tests of new warheads for its intercontinental ballistic missiles later this year, the SMF commander said Saturday. "This year we will continue test and combat-training launches of new types of warheads for the Topol-M and Bulava sea-launched missile complexes," Col. Gen. Nikolai Solovtsov said. He said previously a second missile battalion, equipped with advanced Topol-M (SS-27) road-mobile ICBMs, will be put on combat duty before the end of the year and that the deployment of silo-based Topol-M systems in the Saratov Region and road-mobile systems in the Ivanovo Region (central Russia) would be completed in 2010. As of December 2006, the Strategic Missile Forces operated 44 silo-based and three mobile missile systems. The commander said the Topol-M system will be equipped with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRV) in the next two or three years, adding that the new system would help penetrate missile defenses more effectively. His statement came against the backdrop of growing tensions between Moscow and the West regarding plans by the United States to deploy elements of its global antiballistic missile defense system in Central Europe. Gen. Solovtsov said the Strategic Missile Forces would factor in the new threats. "If the U.S. proceeds with missile defense plans, despite serious opposition from people in Europe, the Strategic Missile Forces will manage to take adequate measures to counter threats to Russia," he said. The national defense program envisions the deployment of Bulava-M sea-launched ballistic missiles on nuclear submarines. The missiles are expected to become the mainstay of the Russian Navy's strategic nuclear forces in decades to come. The Russian Armed Forces commissioned more than 30 new types of advanced weapon systems in the first half of 2007, the defense minister said last month. Anatoly Serdyukov said these weapon systems included the submarine-launched R-29RM Sineva ballistic missiles, the S-400 Triumf air defense complex, and the 120-mm Nona SM-1 towed mortar for Ground Forces. Serdykov also said Russia conducted test launches of the Yarts land-based ballistic missile, the X-102 airborne missile, and a new version of the Iskander-M ballistic missile capable of carrying multiple warheads, and launched two military reconnaissance and communication satellites.
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| Home Front: WoT |
| Who Needs Nukes |
| 2007-03-20 |
| Why the U.S. and other Western powers need to modernize their arsenals The problem with nuclear weapons today can be summed up as follows: They are going out of fashion where they are needed most and coming into fashion where they are needed least. British Prime Minister Tony Blair eked out what is likely to be the last significant legislative victory of his government on Thursday when parliament approved funds, over the objections of 88 Labour MPs, to begin design work on the next generation of ballistic missile nuclear submarines. Whether the subs and their missiles will actually be built remains a question for a future parliament to answer. At nearly the same time, the Bush administration awarded a contract to the Lawrence Livermore Lab to design something called the Reliable Replacement Warhead--basically a retinkered version of the previously tested but never-deployed W89 warhead--to replace the current mainstays of the U.S. arsenal, particularly the 100-kiloton W76. But with Democrats in control of Congress, the RRW will surely face funding hurdles of its own. The New York Times has already chimed in with an editorial denouncing RRW as a make-work scheme for nuclear scientists based on the supposedly bogus rationale of " 'aging' warheads." Too bad the Times didn't rely on its own fine reporting of the issue: "As warheads age," noted the paper's William J. Broad in a 2005 exposé, "the risk of internal rusting, material degradation, corrosion, decay and the embrittling of critical parts increases." Too bad, too, that British anti-nuclear activists fail to consider the dire consequences for their collective poodledom should they relinquish their independent deterrent. Still, these ironies are of small account and at least the left maintains its scruples. No similar scruples inhibit the nuclear ambitions of other nations. Russia is fielding a new land-based missile called the Topol-M and building a new generation of ballistic-missile submarines. The Chinese are upgrading their land- and sea-based nuclear forces with multiple warheads and solid-fuel propulsion technology. Pakistan last month successfully tested its Shaheen-II ballistic missile, capable of lifting a nuclear payload to a range of 1,250 miles. Iran is reportedly within months of developing an industrial-scale uranium enrichment capacity of about 3,000 centrifuges, which in turn puts it on track to acquire a bomb's worth of fissile uranium by the end of 2008. The progress of North Korean arms is well known. Why are the world's responsible powers in such doubt about the necessity of nuclear deterrence when the irresponsible are seeking as never before to enlarge or improve their store of weapons? One answer was offered in these pages in January by former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, who noted that the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty committed non-nuclear powers not to develop weapons in exchange for a promise by the nuclear powers to "reduce and eventually abolish their arsenals." "If this reciprocity is not observed," he wrote, "then the entire structure of the treaty will collapse." As a matter of rhetoric, Mr. Gorbachev is surely right, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad would be clever to press the point when he makes an appearance before the U.N. Security Council later this month. As a matter of reality, the argument is wrong on facts and dangerously solipsistic: Messrs. Kim and Ahmadinejad have better reasons to seek nuclear weapons than pique at American (or British) "hypocrisy." As it is, both Russia and the U.S. have reduced their arsenals from Cold War peaks by as much as 80%--much of the reduction being achieved by the current administration--yet that has done little to incent rogue actors not to seek their own weapons of mass destruction. A more serious objection to the American and British modernization plans is that they offer no realistic security against terrorism. Suppose al Qaeda detonates a nuclear bomb in Times Square. Suppose that the weapon was stolen from an old Soviet depot, meaning no "return address" for purposes of retaliation. Suppose, also, that al Qaeda threatens to detonate five other bombs if the U.S. does not meet a list of its demands. What use would deterrence be then? Against whom would we retaliate, and where? This scenario does not invalidate the need for a nuclear deterrent: There would still be conventional opponents to deter, and it's odd that the people who tell us we can "contain" a nuclear Iran are often the same ones who insist we can forgo the means of containment. But the question of what to do after a nuclear 9/11 is something to which not enough thought has been given. We urgently need a nuclear doctrine--and the weapons to go with it--for the terrorist age. The RRW, which simply prolongs a Cold War nuclear posture through the year 2050, amounts to a partial solution at best. What would a sensible deterrence strategy look like? "Even nihilists have something they hold dear that can be threatened with deterrence," says Max Singer, a collaborator of the great Cold War theorist Herman Kahn. "You need to know what it is, communicate it and be serious about it." Would it hinder Islamist terrorists if the U.S.'s declared policy in the event of a nuclear 9/11 was the immediate destruction of Mecca, Medina and the Iranian religious center of Qom? Would our deterrent be more or less effective if we deployed a range of weapons, such as the maligned "bunker buster," the use of which a potential adversary might think us capable? How would the deployment of a comprehensive anti-ballistic missile shield alter the composition of a credible deterrent? Does it make sense to adhere to the NPT regime when that regime is clearly broken? One needn't have answers to these questions to know it requires something more than pat moralizing about the terribleness of nuclear weapons or declaring the whole matter "unthinkable." Nothing is unthinkable. But whether the unthinkable remains the undoable depends entirely on our willingness to think clearly about it, and to act on our conclusions. |
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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia | |
| Russia plans major military build-up | |
| 2007-02-08 | |
| Russia is planning to buy new intercontinental ballistic missiles, nuclear submarines and possibly aircraft carriers as part of an ambitious military programme, it emerged yesterday. The defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, told parliament the military would have 17 new ballistic missiles this year - a hefty increase on the four deployed on average each year in recent times. The purchases are part of a weapons modernisation programme for 2007-2015 worth about 5 trillion roubles (£96.4bn). The programme envisages the deployment of 34 new silo-based Topol-M missiles and another 50 mounted on mobile launchers. So far, Russia has deployed more than 40 silo-based Topol-Ms. Russian defence spending has been rising steadily in recent years, buoyed by oil revenues and high energy prices. But the military effort is still puny compared with the US defence budget. The White House this week requested $481.4bn (£244.8bn) for the regular military budget in 2008 and $235bn on top of that for Afghanistan and Iraq.
A rapid build-up of advanced weapons would also tax Russia's defence companies, which have received virtually no government orders for a decade. "Links to subcontractors have been broken, and the defence plants now need to rebuild them to produce weapons," the independent military analyst Alexander Golts said. Mr Ivanov said the military now had enough money to intensify combat training. "Combat readiness of the army and the navy is currently the highest in the post-Soviet history," he said, adding that the task now was to "exceed Soviet-era levels". Mr Ivanov said the military now had about 1.13 million servicemen compared with 1.34 million in 2001; by 2015 the military would have about 1 million servicemen. "We can't go below that," he warned. | |
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