Recent Appearances...

Warning: Undefined array key "rbname" in /data/rantburg.com/www/pgrecentorg.php on line 14
Hello !
Recent Appearances...

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Top Iranian Cleric Demands Trump's Execution, Trump unimpressed

2025-07-10

[Breitbart] Leading Iranian cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami called for the execution of President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a sermon in Tehran on Friday.

Khatami accused Trump and Netanyahu of “murdering” tens of thousands of people in Gaza, as well as Iran’s top terrorism coordinator Qasem Soleimani, who was liquidated in Baghdad by a 2020 airstrike ordered by President Trump.

The Iranian regime has commanded its subjects to regard Soleimani as a religious “martyr,” but many Iranians refuse to show the mandatory respect to the slain Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) general.

The crowd at Khatami’s sermon, however, seemed to be on the same page as the fire-breathing cleric, chanting “Death to America,” “Death to England,” and “Death to Israel” as he called for Trump and Netanyahu to be executed. “Death to England” is a hardy perennial in Iranian murder chants.

“You are murderers, you need to be punished,” Khatami railed, aiming his diatribe at the American and Israeli leaders and pronouncing them both guilty of capital offenses under Islamic law, including “sowing corruption in the land” and “fighting Allah and his messenger.”

“The ruling regarding Trump and Netanyahu, according to sharia, is that the pair of them should be executed,” he declared.

Last week, a group of senior Shiite clerics in Iran issued fatwas, or religious edicts, condemning both Trump and Netanyahu. The fatwas damned them as moharebs, or warlords who fight against Allah, the same charge Khatami leveled in his sermon calling for their execution. The earlier religious orders said it was a crime for Trump and Netanyahu to discuss targeting Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iranian dissidents denounced the fatwas as clear incitement for terrorist attacks against the United States and Israel. The regime in Tehran has long threatened revenge for the death of Soleimani, at a “time and place of its own choosing,” as governments that sponsor terrorism are prone to saying.

Iranian state television sought to put an $80 million bounty on Donald Trump’s head during Soleimani’s funeral in 2020, and then tried to crowdsource the blood money by encouraging 80 million Muslims to chip in one dollar apiece.

In December 2023, an Iranian court “ruled” that Trump, his former secretary of state Mike Pompeo, the CIA, the Pentagon, and various other U.S. government entities and defense contractors should pay Iran $50 billion to “compensate” for the death of Soleimani and “deter future violations.” The case was ostensibly brought to court as a class action by over 3,000 Iranian nationals.

Trump’s bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites, during the finale of Israel’s 12-day Operation Rising Lion to take out Iran’s illegal nuclear weapons program, will doubtless be added to Iran’s threats of revenge.

Ayatollah Khatami and the mullahs who issued the fatwas claimed to be more upset about Netanyahu declaring Supreme Leader Khamenei to be a legitimate target during Operation Rising Lion, and Trump chiding Khamenei to show a little gratitude for talking the Israelis out of killing him.

Courtesy of Skidmark:

Trump fires back after Iranian official's chilling Mar-a-Lago sunbathing assassination threat

[Daily Mail, where America gets its news] President Donald Trump fired back after an Iranian official offered a chilling warning, saying the president was not safe outside at his Mar-a-Lago home and could be assassinated.

'Trump has done something that he can no longer sunbathe in Mar-a-Lago. As he lies there with his stomach to the sun, a small drone might hit him in the navel. It's very simple,' said Javad Larijani, a senior advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, said on Iranian TV.

The threat comes just weeks after a top Iranian cleric issued a fatwa against Trump, declaring him an 'enemy of God.'

Trump doesn't usually sunbathe, but he's a regular on the outdoor patio at his Palm Beach home where he talks to the crowd and sits down for a meal.

The president shrugged off the threat when asked about it and said he hasn't sunbathed in years, since he was seven years old.

'It's been a long time. Maybe I was around seven or so,' he said when asked the last time he lay in the sun. 'I'm not too big into it.'

He added he wasn't convinced Iran was targeting him. 'Yeah, I guess it's a threat. I'm not sure it's a threat, actually, but perhaps it is,' he told reporters at the White House on Wednesday.

The area around Mar-a-Lago, which sits on the barrier island in Palm Beach, is a no-fly zone. Security is both heavy and visible. Police helicopters patrol the skies and gunboats sit on the waterway next to the club grounds.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

For 2nd time in days, IDF says troops arrested terror cell in Syria working for Iran

2025-07-08

[IsraelTimes] Military says forces captured several members of IRGC-linked terror cell; UK-based war monitor says IDF raided a village in the Quneitra countryside and detained two brothers

For the second time in days, the IDF said Monday morning that it carried out an overnight raid in southern Syria, where forces captured a cell of operatives operating on behalf of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Reservists of the Alexandroni Brigade and field interrogators of the Military Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504 operated overnight in the Kwdana area — close to the border and near an IDF post in southern Syria — to detain the cell, the military said.

Several members of the cell who the IDF said were operating on behalf of the IRGC were nabbed.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights war monitor said Israeli forces raided a village in the Quneitra countryside of southern Syria early Monday and "carried out searches targeting several homes, which ended with the arrest of two brothers."

On Wednesday, Israel’s military said its forces had apprehended members of an Iranian-backed terrorist cell in southern Syria and seized weapons.

Since Assad’s fall, Israel has carried out strikes and raids in Syria aimed at denying military assets to the Islamist-led interim administration.

Israel has said it is interested in striking normalization agreements with Syria and neighboring Leb
Leb

...The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else?...
, but insisted the strategic Golan Heights — which Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and later annexed — would remain part of Israel under any peace accord.

The two countries are currently engaged in "advanced talks" to end official hostilities and resolve the buffer zone issue, a senior Israeli official told The Times of Israel last week.

The contacts are focused on coordination around security matters, said the official, who would not speculate on when a full peace deal between the two enemy states could turn into reality.

The neighboring states have been in conflict for decades, including direct and often bitter combat from the 1948 War of Independence through the 1982 First Lebanon War.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Two IRGC members killed trying to defuse bombs left over from war with Israel

2025-07-07

[IsraelTimes] Two members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed today while attempting to defuse explosives in an area of the country’s west hit by Israeli strikes last month, Iranian media reports.
"Wait. Let me make this callback - I just got a page"
Tasnim news agency, citing a statement from the IRGC, says that “two members of the Guards were killed Sunday in Khorramabad while clearing the area of explosives left by the Zionist regime’s aggression.”

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

IAF strikes target Hezbollah positions in the Boday Hills area in southern Lebanon

2025-07-07

[X]

⚡️NOW: IAF strikes target Hezbollah positions in the Boday Hills area in southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/XcfNvlmmGM
— Geospatial World (@RiyaSpda) July 6, 2025

IDF says it struck Hezbollah targets in southern and eastern Lebanon
[IsraelTimes] The IDF says it carried out airstrikes against several Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa region of eastern Lebanon a short while ago.

The strikes targeted military sites, infrastructure used for storing and producing strategic weapons, and a rocket launch site belonging to the terror group, it says.

The military says that Hezbollah’s presence and activity in the area constitute a clear violation of the agreements between Israel and Lebanon.

Link

Iraq

The 12-day war and silent transformations of western Asia, Part I: Iraq and Turkey

2025-07-05

The view from Kurdistan, at length. Part II: PKK and Iran will be published tomorrow.

[Rudaw] The 12-day Israel—Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
war stands as one of the most consequential events of the first quarter of the 21st century, with the potential to reshape both the economic landscape and the political-security dynamics of western Asia. Much like the Six-Day Arab—Israeli War of 1967, which extended beyond mere territorial occupation, the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel was not solely about missile exchanges and nuclear ambitions.

Beyond the overt military dimensions, the war was also aimed at strategically distancing Tehran from its deepening ties with China and Russia, while simultaneously curbing the expansion of the pan-Shia movement led by Iran. In this sense, the conflict served a role analogous to that of the 1967 war, which effectively halted the rise of the pan-Arab movement spearheaded by Gamal Abdel Nasser and supported by Moscow.

Regardless of whether it is referred to as Operation Rising Lion, True Promise, or Midnight Hammer, it is evident that this war is quietly transforming the regional landscape. Syria appears to be entering a new phase aimed at establishing the foundations of governance, while the regional influence of both ~~The Sick Man of Europe~~ Turkey
...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire...
and the Gulf states is expanding. In parallel, the issue of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) disarmament has progressed into a new stage, influenced by the broader consequences of the conflict.

The war has turned Iraq and the Kurdistan Region into arenas for two major regional rivalries. On one front, these areas have become a battleground for military competition between Iran and Israel, a dynamic that has pushed Iraq’s internal situation to the edge of crisis where unknown drones have emerged as key players in shaping the security environment. On another front, Iraq is increasingly becoming a site of strategic contention between Ottoman Turkish and Iranian interests.

Additionally, the war - and even the anticipation of it - has compelled Turkey to quietly engage in a discourse aimed at redefining its nation-state identity, particularly through the rhetoric of Ottoman Turkish—Kurdish brotherhood. Simultaneously, within Iran, a growing debate between the ultra-conservative faction and other elements of the political elite reflects yet another dimension of the war’s subtle but enduring influence - an influence that appears likely to persist.

IRAQ BETWEEN THE HAMMER OF WAR AND THE ANVIL OF RIVALRY
Iraq’s current situation appears increasingly precarious as the country approaches elections under the shadow of both ongoing regional conflict and intensifying geopolitical rivalry - developments that may, as in previous instances, prove decisive for its future. In relation to the recent war, Iraq has formally protested the violation of its airspace illusory sovereignty. However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
this issue is only one dimension of a broader and more complex set of challenges. On the day the conflict ended, two of Iraq’s radar systems were destroyed, and in the days that followed, unidentified drones have emerged as a growing security concern, appearing in areas ranging from Kirkuk to Sulaimani and
Duhok. The Iraqi government is currently conducting investigations to determine the origins of these incursions.

While some have speculated that the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems....
(ISIS) may be responsible, this theory does not align with the group’s current limited military and organizational capabilities. In reality, only three regional actors possess the capacity to conduct such drone operations across the Kurdistan Region and Kirkuk: Turkey, Iran and its affiliated "resistance" groups, and Israel.

At a time when the world is closely monitoring PKK disarmament negotiations, it is unlikely that Turkey would risk undermining the process, especially since the nature and targets of the drone activity do not suggest Ottoman Turkish involvement.

Both Iran and Israel remain highly sensitive to the strategic positioning of the Kurdistan Region and Iraq more broadly. Contrary to prevailing assumptions, the Kurdistan Region adopted a stance of silent neutrality during the recent conflict. However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
this neutrality has failed to satisfy either Iran or Israel, each of which interprets the Region’s posture through its own security and strategic lens. Whether war resumes or not, the Kurdistan Region’s geographic and strategic location renders it critically important to the offensive and defensive calculations of both parties.

At this stage, the identity of the actors behind the drone incidents remains unknown. Nonetheless, the prevailing interpretation is that these incidents constitute strategic signaling - intended more as a message than as direct acts of aggression or destruction. The ambiguity surrounding these developments underscores the fragile and volatile security environment in which Iraq now finds itself - caught between the hammer of regional warfare and the anvil of great-power rivalry.

Another point is that the possibility of Iraq being caught up in war due to the balance of power in the region is always open, because Iraq is important to Iran to protect its last regional bastion, but it’s also important to Israel to keep a gateway to reach Iran open and prevent a problem from forming through Iraq. It seems that in the future, beyond security and military matters, Iraq will increasingly become a field of economic competition and influence between Turkey and Iran, and this will translate into political tension.

Iran has increasingly focused on developing its economic relations with Iraq and the Kurdistan Region. In 2020, Iran’s trade volume with Iraq did not reach $6 billion, while Turkey positioned itself at around $17 billion. Since then, it has continuously tried to turn toward the Iraqi market, and in 2024 it reduced its gap with Turkey. Iran’s economic losses after the fall of Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Oppressor of the Syrians and the Lebs...
are estimated at around $30-50 billion. It is estimated that the 12-day war also cost it between $24 and 35 billion. If international sanctions are to return by October 18, then it must grip the Iraqi market with teeth and claws, as it seems like the last resort for its economy. Mohsen Rezaee, former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, once said that we cannot fight wars for countries while their benefits go to other countries.

A DOUBLE-SIX FOR TURKEY AND THE GULF, AND AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SYRIA
The recent conflict has elevated the regional prominence of both Turkey and the Gulf states. For these actors, the simultaneous weakening of Iran and Israel constitutes a strategic gain - akin to a "double six" in backgammon - provided that the hostilities remain confined within the borders of the two principal belligerents. At the same time, both Turkey and the Gulf countries are vying with Oman for the opportunity to host prospective negotiations between Iran and the United States, if such talks prove feasible.

From Turkey’s perspective, the Iran—Israel war represents the weakening of two of its major regional competitors. However,
a clean conscience makes a soft pillow...
had the conflict intensified or triggered sudden political upheaval in Iran, it could have posed a direct threat to Ottoman Turkish security. Despite this risk, the war appears to have drawn Turkey and the United States into closer alignment. The US ambassador in Ankara has publicly stated that Turkey might be readmitted into the F-35 fighter jet program. Additionally, Turkey was reportedly one of the few countries briefed by the United States shortly before Israel launched its attack.

It appears that Turkey has played - and possibly continues to play - a role in the diplomatic efforts to end the conflict. This includes mediating between Iran and the United States, as well as between Hamas
Hamas

..a regional Iranian catspaw,...
and the US. In the event that an agreement is reached between Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa faction and Israel, it would signify a potential normalization of relations between Turkey and Israel. Such a reconciliation would not only alleviate long-standing political and security concerns, but also facilitate more stable and reliable access to the Syrian market - particularly significant given the recent partial lifting of US sanctions on Syria under the Trump administration.

The aftermath of the war has also encouraged Sharaa to move closer to Israel, thereby strengthening his position and increasing his chances of consolidating political authority in Syria. This shift could signal broader transformations in the geopolitical dynamics of the region.

Link

Home Front: WoT

US slaps sanctions on Iran’s oil smuggling network, Hezbollah finance firm

2025-07-04

[IsraelTimes] US Treasury accuses Iraqi businessman of buying Iranian oil disguised as, or blending it with Iraqi oil; sanctions placed on vessels part of Iran’s ‘shadow fleet’

The United States imposed sanctions on Thursday against a business network that smuggles Iranian oil disguised as Iraqi oil, as well as sanctions targeting a Hezbollah-controlled financial institution, the Treasury Department said.

The network of companies run by Iraqi businessman Salim Ahmed Said has been buying and shipping billions of dollars worth of Iranian oil disguised as, or blended with, Iraqi oil since at least 2020, the department said in a statement.

"Treasury will continue to target Tehran’s revenue sources and intensify economic pressure to disrupt the regime’s access to the financial resources that fuel its destabilizing activities," Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said.

In February, US President Donald Trump
...New York real estate developer, described by Dems as illiterate, racist, misogynistic, and whatever other unpleasant descriptions they can think of, elected by the rest of us as 45th and 47th President of the United States...
restored a "maximum pressure" campaign on Iran, which includes efforts to drive its oil exports to zero and help prevent Tehran from developing a nuclear weapon. Washington has also targeted Iran’s proxy groups with sanctions.

Trump then spent weeks pursuing a diplomatic path to replace the nuclear deal with Tehran that he tore up during his first term in 2018, but he ultimately decided to join Israel’s military action, which was launched on June 13.

Israel’s unprecedented air campaign targeted Iranian nuclear sites, scientists, and top military brass in a bid to end the country’s nuclear program, which Tehran says is for civilian purposes but Washington and other powers insist is aimed at acquiring atomic weapons.

American B-2 bombers also hit two Iranian nuclear sites with massive GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs last month, while a guided missile submarine struck one of those sites and a third site with Tomahawk cruise missiles.

The US and Iran
Iran

...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
are expected to hold talks about Tehran’s nuclear program next week in Oslo, Axios reported.

Said’s companies and vessels blend Iranian oil with Iraqi oil, which is then sold to Western buyers via Iraq or the United Arab Emirates as purely Iraqi oil using forged documentation to avoid sanctions, the Treasury said.

Said controls UAE-based company VS Tankers, though he avoids formal association with it, the Treasury said. Formerly known as al-Iraqia Shipping Services & Oil Trading (AISSOT), VS Tankers has smuggled oil for the benefit of the Iranian government and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is designated by Washington as a terrorist organization, it said.

The sanctions block US assets of those designated and prevent Americans from doing business with them.

VS Tankers did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Iran’s mission in New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The US also sanctioned several vessels that are accused of engaging in the covert delivery of Iranian oil, intensifying pressure on Iran’s "shadow fleet," it said.

The Treasury Department also issued sanctions against several bigwigs and one entity associated with the Hezbollah-controlled financial institution al-Qard al-Hassan.

The officials, the department said, conducted millions of dollars in transactions that ultimately benefited, but obscured, Hezbollah.

Update from Rudaw at 10:50 a.m. EDT:

The department further accused Said of bribing "many members of key Iraqi government bodies, including parliament," saying he paid millions of dollars in kickbacks in exchange for forged vouchers certifying the oil’s origin as Iraqi. He is also said to control the UAE-based VS Tankers FZE while avoiding formal association with it.

The actions were taken under Executive Order 13902, which targets sectors of Iran’s economy, including its petroleum and petrochemical industries, as well as under US counterterrorism authorities.

The sanctions come after the recent 12-day war between Iran and Israel, during which the US struck key Iranian nuclear facilities. In a further move to pressure Tehran, Washington in March revoked a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iraq to purchase electricity from Iran.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

IDF has eliminated a terrorist from the Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guards near Beirut

2025-07-04

[PUBLISH.TWITTER]

🚨BREAKING 🚨 The IDF has eliminated a terrorist from the Quds Force of Iran's Revolutionary Guards near Beirut, Lebanon. According to the IDF, the terrorist was "engaged in smuggling weapons and promoting terrorist plots against Israeli citizens and IDF forces." pic.twitter.com/6cGL09UuGq
— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) July 3, 2025

The Times of Israel adds:

The Israel Defense Forces carried out an ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
...KABOOM!...
Thursday in the Lebanese village of Sil, near Beirut, targeting an operative for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the military said. It was unclear if the strike was successful.

According to the IDF, the target was involved in smuggling weapons and advancing terror plots against Israeli civilians and IDF troops, acting on behalf of the Quds Force, the IRGC’s foreign arm, which is responsible for supporting Tehran’s regional proxies, including Hezbollah in Leb
Leb

...home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade....
Saudi news outlet al-Hadath identified the target as Qassem al-Husseini. It was not immediately clear if the target was a Lebanese or Iranian national.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that one person was killed and three people were maimed in the IDF strike. According to the NNA, "an enemy drone targeted a car on the Khalde highway" south of Beirut.

An AFP photographer saw a half-burnt car on the crowded highway as the Lebanese army sealed the area off.

Update from the Times of Israel at 1:55 p.m. EDT — that wasn’t all the IDF did in Lebanon yesterday:

The Israeli Air Force carried out strikes on Hezbollah military sites in southern Lebanon a short while ago, which the IDF says targeted weapons depots, military buildings and terror infrastructure.

The operation was conducted with intelligence support from the Military Intelligence Directorate and the IDF’s Northern Command.

According to the IDF, Hezbollah operational activity in the area and the presence of weapons constitute a “blatant violation” of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon.

Link

Home Front: WoT

Iranian hackers, back at work since war, threaten to reveal more emails from Trump aides

2025-07-01

[IsraelTimes] Iran-linked hackers have threatened to disclose more emails stolen from US President Donald Trump’s circle, after distributing a prior batch to the media ahead of the 2024 US election.

In online chats with Reuters on Sunday and Monday, the hackers, who go by the pseudonym Robert, say they have roughly 100 gigabytes of emails from the accounts of White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Trump lawyer Lindsey Halligan, Trump adviser Roger Stone and porn star-turned-Trump antagonist Stormy Daniels.

Robert raises the possibility of selling the material but otherwise does not provide details of their plans or the content of the emails.

US Attorney General Pam Bondi describes the intrusion as “an unconscionable cyber-attack.”

Iran’s mission to the United Nations does not return a message seeking comment. Tehran has in the past denied committing cyberespionage.

Robert materialized in the final months of the 2024 presidential campaign, when they claimed to have breached the email accounts of several Trump allies, including Wiles.

The hackers then distributed emails to journalists.

The US Justice Department in a September 2024 indictment alleged that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards ran the Robert hacking operation. In conversations with Reuters, the hackers declined to address the allegation.

After Trump’s election, Robert told Reuters that no more leaks were planned. As recently as May, the hackers told Reuters, “I am retired, man.”

But the group resumed communication after this month’s 12-day air war between Israel and Iran, which was capped by US bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites.

In messages this week, Robert said they were organizing a sale of stolen emails and wanted Reuters to “broadcast this matter.”

American Enterprise Institute scholar Frederick Kagan, who has written about Iranian cyberespionage, says Tehran’s spies are likely trying to retaliate in ways that do not draw more US or Israeli action.

“A default explanation is that everyone’s been ordered to use all the asymmetric stuff that they can that’s not likely to trigger a resumption of major Israeli/US military activity,” he says. “Leaking a bunch more emails is not likely to do that.”

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Backfire: How Much Damage Has Iran's 'Nuclear Perimeter' Really Suffered

2025-07-01

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Tsukanov

[REGNUM] The key goal of the Israeli Operation Lion Force was named the dismantling of the Iranian nuclear program.

A key goal, anyway. Another key goal was ending Iran’s ability to be a military threat to Israel’s existence, and a third — going beyond Lion Forces — was to end the ability of Iran’s alliance with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis as a military threat to Israel’s existence.

More precisely, its military component, the existence of which official ~~Tel Aviv~~ Jerusalem has been convinced of for many years.

Not just Israel…
Later, the Americans, who joined in the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities, used the same considerations to explain their actions.

However, after the completion of the active phase of the operation, the victorious reports gave way to reflections on how real the damage to the Iranian nuclear industry was, and whether Washington and Tel Aviv, with their “decisive throw,” brought Tehran closer to obtaining its own nuclear arsenal.

WAYS TO GET RICH
According to the provisions of the “nuclear deal” concluded between Iran and a group of guarantors (Russia, China, the USA, Germany, Great Britain, the EU) in 2015, Tehran had the right to enrich about 300 kg of uranium to a level no higher than 3.7%. This symbolic threshold was quite sufficient for the development of the “peaceful atom” and conducting scientific research without the possibility of clandestine work on nuclear weapons.

With the collapse of the “deal” after the US withdrew from it in 2017, Iran began a gradual reduction in its commitments to its national nuclear program, reducing the frequency of international inspections and increasing the rate of enrichment, unilaterally raising the threshold several times.

According to the latest verified IAEA measurements (February 2025), of the 7.5 thousand kg of enriched stockpiles within the deal, less than 40% (2.9 thousand kg) were attributed to Tehran.

Moreover, at least 274 kg was enriched to 60%, which in theory gives Iran the ability to quickly increase these stockpiles to weapons-grade levels (enrichment of 90% or more).

The June strikes by Israel and the US on enrichment plants in Natanz and Isfahan, at first glance, set the process back. Washington emphasizes that the air raids allegedly managed to destroy the entire infrastructure for the production of metallic uranium in Isfahan, which will require Tehran to make “serious investments” in the near future to restore it.

The Israelis add that at least 13,000 centrifuges were damaged, both by direct missile hits and by power surges at enrichment plants.

However, the IAEA is less optimistic in its assessments. Rafael Grossi believes that Iran is capable of quickly - literally in a few months - replacing the centrifuges destroyed as a result of Israeli strikes. Using, among other things, what was stored in underground warehouses "in unspecified quantities." And over the next year, it can also modernize them, once again increasing the rate of enrichment work.

Predicting the timing of a new breakthrough will be extremely problematic, especially since, after a series of scandals with IAEA inspectors, Tehran has decided to dismantle the Agency's monitoring systems at its nuclear facilities.

UNEXPECTED EARTHQUAKE
A separate topic for discussion is the extent of damage to Iran's "nuclear perimeter." Despite the fact that the facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, Arak, and Fordow were subjected to intensive strikes at least three times in two weeks, the damage was inflicted mainly on above-ground buildings, while the underground infrastructure was practically unharmed.

That’s certainly one perspective. But given how thoroughly Mossad was embedded in Iran’s nuclear program since at least 2010, it’s possible their estimates of the damage are more accurate than some pundit sitting somewhere in Russia. And if not, they will discover the hard way, no?

Even the use of GBU-57 bunker busters by the US against the Fordow facility did not result in the destruction of the underground storage facility for highly enriched uranium, as evidenced by numerous radiological measurements in Iran and neighboring countries. If the underground storage facility with enriched uranium had suffered a direct hit, it would have been impossible to hide the traces of the man-made disaster.

However, as experts note, the attack provoked a "migration" of Iranian stockpiles. About 400 kg of highly enriched uranium disappeared from radars, which the Iranians allegedly transported from Fordow to an unknown location in advance.

Considering that IAEA inspections in the country have been stopped, it is not yet possible to determine the new storage location of the disputed stockpiles.

The unexpected earthquake (June 20, magnitude 5.2) in the province of Semnan, where a large number of facilities are located, added to the controversy. It was noted that its epicenter was at a depth of approximately 10 km, which only spurred discussions about the start of secret underground nuclear weapons tests in Iran.

However, the West did not develop the conspiracy theory. Especially since to create such shocks it would be necessary to detonate a warhead with a capacity of up to 200 kilotons. And this is many times greater than even the military capabilities attributed to Tehran.

WEAK SPOT
Perhaps the greatest damage to the Iranian nuclear program has been not in equipment and consumables, but in people.

The Israeli army's General Staff insists that it was able to eliminate at least nine leading scientists from the Iranian "nuclear project", at least five seconded figures, officers supervising intelligence and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Tehran, however, acknowledges the deaths of only six of them and emphasizes that all of those killed worked in the peaceful sector or were theorists.

Fierce debates continue in the West: did the dead nuclear scientists manage to pass on their accumulated knowledge or did Tehran not believe until the very end that Israel would hunt the scientists so actively? Especially since almost five years have passed since the previous major operation to eliminate Iranian nuclear scientists.

Either way, the one-time loss of a large number of high-level specialists will limit the capabilities of the Iranian nuclear sector for some time.

On the other hand, the patriotic impulse that has emerged in Iran in the wake of the US-Israeli attacks is driving a sharp rise in demand for science education among young people, according to universities that are seeing an influx of motivated applicants.

If Tehran manages to ride this wave, it will be able to saturate the industry with new personnel in the next decade.

BACK TO THE ROOTS
Although Iran has stopped publicly discussing a new "nuclear deal" after the US-Israeli operation, the authorities have left little room for maneuver.

The Iranian diplomatic corps maintains alternating contacts with the Europeans and Washington (although the White House denies the fact of these interactions), and also works closely with non-Western intermediaries in the form of Russia and China.

Tehran does not hide that it is still interested in dispelling the myths surrounding its "atomic dossier", although it makes a reservation that it will continue to enrich uranium within the limits that it deems necessary. And if the situation requires it, it is ready to continue the confrontation with the United States.

Even though concluding a new deal still meets the interests of the Masoud Pezeshkian government, official Tehran’s excessive attention to the diplomatic track could be perceived in the current circumstances as a sign of weakness and an admission of defeat in the recent conflict.

For this reason, it is important for Iranian elites to continue to balance, demonstrating a willingness to negotiate, but taking into account their own compelling interests.

Moreover, Iran even has some trump cards in its hands - for example, a draft law on the country's withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, following the example of the DPRK. It has already been repeatedly put on the agenda, but has not received support. If the guarantors put too much pressure on Tehran, it may well give the document a go.

That won’t protect Iran from Israel’s bombs, or America’s. Neither Iraq nor Syria’s nuclear programs were protected from Israel’s bombs, after all.

Link

Cyber

Their Nukes May Be Gone, But Iran Persists as a Major Cyber Threat

2025-07-01

[PJMedia] So we did it. America’s military might—a combination of satellite surveillance, stealth bombers, and enough firepower to make Zeus blush—obliterated Iran’s nuclear infrastructure in a series of blistering ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
<del>Arclight</del> airstrike

...KABOOM!...
s. The centrifuges are now molten metal. The command bunkers are smoking holes in the earth. And for a fleeting moment, the world exhaled.

But before we break out the cigars and declare Mission Accomplished 2.0, let’s remember: Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
doesn’t need a working uranium enrichment program to be a menace. In fact, Tehran’s most insidious weapons today don’t require any uranium at all—just a keyboard and a decent broadband connection.

The question before us now is: What kind of actor will Iran be going forward, despite the ceasefire terms with Israel? Will it lick its wounds quietly? Or will it lean harder into the asymmetric warfare it has been perfecting for decades—cyber threats that can grind modern life to a halt without firing a single shot?

If the last decade has taught us anything, it’s that when nation-states get humiliated on the conventional battlefield, they don’t give up—they pivot. Just look at Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow’s cyber operators and affiliated cybercrime gangs have been treating European power grids and American hospitals like a toddler treats a Lego tower: something to knock over again and again for fun.

Groups such as Conti and BlackBasta have blurred the line between "state-sponsored" and "state-tolerated." These gangs have built empires by extorting ransoms and exfiltrating data, all while Russia pretends to look the other way—so long as the chaos benefits the Kremlin’s strategic goals. Iran, ever the opportunist, has surely been watching this hybrid warfare model with great interest.

It’s naïve to think that, post-strike, Tehran’s hackers will just fold up their laptops. More likely, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will intensify cyber operations, targeting Israeli infrastructure and Western allies’ critical systems. These operators, many trained in Russia and China, don’t need fissile material to paralyze banks, pipelines, or power grids. They just need vulnerabilities—of which there are plenty.

While politicians love to talk about bombs and missiles—because they make great B-roll footage—cyber weapons are more insidious, precisely because they remain invisible until it’s too late.

Consider Zero-Day attacks: previously unknown software flaws that can be exploited before a patch exists. For all we know, Iranian or proxy actors have already acquired a buffet of Zero-Days from the same black markets that Russian cybercriminals frequent.

Or take Remote Access Trojans such as Chaos RAT—little digital parasites that can lodge themselves deep in corporate networks, lying dormant until activated. If you think your organization’s antivirus is catching these things, you probably also think the DMV is an example of American efficiency.

Iran’s cyber units have already demonstrated their willingness to deploy such tools. Recall the 2012 Shamoon attack, when Saudi Aramco’s systems were wiped clean. Today’s capabilities are far more sophisticated.

Iran doesn’t act in isolation. Beijing’s APTs (Advanced Persistent Threats) have perfected the model for long-term infiltration. China’s Silver Fox, for example, specializes in protracted intrusions designed to siphon data for years. The global cyber ecosystem is more connected—and more dangerous—than ever.

While Iran may not have the resources to match China’s scale, there’s little stopping it from borrowing tactics and even buying exploits from the same suppliers. That means your utilities provider or your municipal government could already be compromised by the combined ingenuity of state actors who are happy to collaborate when their interests align.

Many in Washington seem content to believe the ceasefire with Israel will tamp down hostilities across the board. But ceasefires only restrain kinetic attacks. They don’t compel an adversary to abandon digital sabotage, disinformation campaigns, or ransomware operations.

Cyberwarfare is cheaper, deniable, and deeply satisfying for regimes nursing a grudge. If Tehran wants to restore prestige after the vaporization of its nuclear dreams, it can do so by humiliating Western institutions in cyberspace—while maintaining plausible deniability.

You can almost imagine the presser: "No, we didn’t cause the East Coast blackout. Maybe check with your own companies? By the way, death to America."

Here’s the part that ought to keep policymakers awake at night: while the U.S. military remains the undisputed heavyweight champion of conventional warfare, in the cyber arena we’re still, at times, the overconfident middle schooler who forgot to do his homework.

Sure, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has made great strides. But when you consider that basic ransomware crews can compromise thousands of organizations with off-the-shelf kits, you start to grasp how wide the gap remains between our offensive prowess and our defensive readiness.

We’ve poured trillions into aircraft carriers and hypersonic missiles, but comparatively little into ensuring hospitals aren’t running Windows Server 2008 with admin passwords like "Password123."

It’s time to invest in cyber defense infrastructure with the urgency we’ve historically reserved for kinetic threats. That means hardening critical networks, funding AI-based threat detection, and creating real deterrence against state-backed cyberattacks.

Otherwise, we risk waking up to find that, while we were celebrating the rubble of Natanz, Tehran’s cyber operatives slipped in through the back door—cutting off power, leaking sensitive data, or simply sowing chaos for chaos’ sake.

Because if the Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated anything, it’s that modern conflicts are not waged solely on battlefields. They’re waged in server farms, on cloud platforms, and inside the smart devices we so gleefully installed in every aspect of our lives.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Khamenei adviser rumored killed by Israel makes first public appearance at funeral

2025-06-29

If at first Israel doesn’t succeed…

[Rudaw] Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
...the very aged actual dictator of Iran, successor to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini...>
, was severely injured in Israel’s first wave of strikes. On Saturday he made his first public appearance at a funeral for dozens of people killed in the war with Israel, and he described the moment the room he was in was hit.

Shamkhani said he was asleep in his room when it collapsed under an Israeli strike, leaving him trapped beneath the rubble for three hours. "My whole room collapsed, a lot of debris fell on me," he told state TV. "At first, I thought it was an earthquake."

With limited oxygen, Shamkhani began digging with his foot in an attempt to free himself. "I was taking small, sharp breaths. It wasn’t even a breath," he recalled.

Rescue workers searching for survivors heard him shouting and called out, "He’s here!"

"I wasn’t afraid for a moment. I said I was going to die... I’ve lived my life. Let’s see how long I live," he said.
"We're taking bets"
Shamkhani, a key figure in Iran’s military and political establishment, has held senior roles across both the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular army.

He served as defense minister from 1997 to 2005 and later as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council from 2013 to 2023, where he oversaw national security and nuclear diplomacy. Known for bridging reformist and conservative camps, Shamkhani has played a lasting role in shaping Iran’s regional and strategic policies.

He was wrongly reported killed in Israel’s first strikes on Iranian military leadership and nuclear sites on June 13.

"They knew why they targeted me, and I know why they targeted me," Shamkhani said.

On June 21 he posted on social media that he had been injured.

In its operation against Iran, Israel targeted the top echelon of Iran’s military, killing many senior commanders including IRGC commander General Hossein Salami, chief of staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Bagheri, head of IRGC’s main operational command General Gholam Ali Rashid, and head of the IRGC’s aerospace division General Amir Ali Hajizadeh.

"These soldiers, my dear brothers, who were all martyred, were friends, comrades, and fellow soldiers," said Shamkhani. He described them as "the minds and pillars of Iran’s authority" with whom he used to plot strategy.

The commanders were all quickly replaced and Iran
Iran

...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
began a retaliation campaign that had been pre-planned as a contingency.

"We predicted that we would be attacked, so what happened next was based on the decisions of the Supreme Leader during these meetings. We knew what to do if this happened and we knew what our capabilities were," Shamkhani said.

His interview was done on the sidelines of a large, state funeral ceremony for around 60 people, including military personnel, scientists, and civilians killed in the war with Israel. The event grew massive crowds.

President Masoud Pezeshkian joined brass hats at the funeral, as did Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba.

The conflict brought an end to indirect nuclear talks between Tehran and Washington. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has ruled out the possibility of resuming the talks, though US President Donald Trump
...The Hero of Butler, Pennsylvania...
has said he expects they will meet.

Shamkhani said that the US was not negotiating with Iran with the goal of reaching a nuclear deal, but in order to "provoke the internal situation in the country and force them to protest."

Those behind the conflict believed "that with a single action, Iran’s internal situation will be ripe for an uprising," he said, but added that Iranians have repeatedly demonstrated their commitment to national illusory sovereignty.

"Now it is our duty to resolve even the smallest disagreement [with the people]," he added.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Shaken by depth of Israeli penetration, Iran said to launch sweeping internal crackdown - Mossad there since 2010 (!!)

2025-06-29

Spy squirrels! Spy herons!!! OMG MOSSAD!!!!!!!!!

[IsraelTimes] Tehran reportedly detains over 1,000 in spy hunt; leaked documents reveal Israel had ‘boots on the ground’ across Iran’s nuclear and military sites since 2010

The Iranian regime has launched a sweeping internal crackdown aimed at rooting out Israeli spies, dissidents and opposition figures, The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times

...which still proudly claims Walter Duranty's Pulitzer prize...
reported Saturday, in light of Mosssd
Mosssd

...sees all, knows all, gets 'em all in the end...
’s deep penetration of its ranks that gave Jerusalem extensive intelligence on the nation’s nuclear program and allowed it to eliminate numerous brass hats during the 12-day offensive against the Islamic Theocratic Republic.

The Journal, citing Amnesty International, said more than 1,000 Iranians have been detained over the past two weeks on allegations of aiding Israel.

There are now daily reports in state media of new arrests and weapons seizures, the report said. In the western city of Hamedan — home to an air base heavily damaged in Israel’s opening strike — authorities announced 24 cases against suspected Israeli operatives accused of "sending information, photos, and videos to the enemy."

The regime’s sweeping response comes amid revelations of a years-long Israeli intelligence-gathering effort that penetrated deep into the heart of Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs.

Mohammad Amin-Nejad, Iran’s ambassador to La Belle France, acknowledged the extent of the penetration in an interview last week with La Belle France 24, saying, "The Israelis organized penetrations, transfers of bombs and explosives, and recruited people from within. It happened right before our eyes. There were vulnerabilities."

A senior adviser to Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mahdi Mohammadi, acknowledged in a leaked audio recording that Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate ~~Jews~~ ~~Zionists~~ Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
had suffered a "massive security and intelligence breach," according to The New York Times.

In a reflection of the regime’s mounting anxiety, internet access, which had been cut nationwide for more than a week, was only restored on Wednesday. Even so, authorities have continued to warn against using messaging platforms such as WhatsApp, citing fears that Israeli intelligence services could exploit them to intercept communications.

The intelligence ministry has urged citizens to report suspicious activity and has released detailed guidance on how to identify potential spies. The Journal said that among the behaviors flagged in the materials are people coming and going at odd hours, wearing masks or donning hats and sunglasses indoors, as well as metallic banging noises inside homes and curtains that remain closed during daylight hours.

The New York Times reported that the Iranian government has fast-tracked trials and executions for alleged spies and is advancing legislation to expand the death penalty

for espionage.

Mohammad Ali Shabani, an analyst cited in the report, suggested the Israeli strikes may have generated a rare "rally-around-the-flag" effect, with some Iranians moved to assist the regime out of fear or nationalistic impulse.

Human rights organizations cited by the paper warned that the crackdown was disproportionately affecting ethnic and religious minorities, opposition figures nand foreigners, with many held without warrants or access to lawyers.

A YEARS-LONG EFFORT
British daily The Times reported that Israel had had "boots on the ground" for years in the lead up to its strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missiles program, monitoring and gathering intelligence from several locations as early as 2010. The report cited an intelligence source and leaked intelligence documents shared with Western countries.

According to leaked documents shared with Israel’s Western allies, including the US and Britannia, and seen by The Times, Israel assessed that by the end of 2024 Iran had moved beyond the research stage of weaponizing nuclear materials and had begun experiments to be able to build a bomb "within weeks."

The leaked documents also showed that Iran aimed to dramatically ramp up its ballistic missile capabilities, producing dozens of surface-to-surface missiles each month with a goal of reaching 8,000 in total. Israel believed such an arsenal would allow Iran to cause devastating damage to the Jewish state.

At the time of the war, Tehran was thought to have some 2,500 ballistic missiles. It launched around 500 at Israel, and was prevented from launching more due to Israel’s destruction of around half of its 400 launchers and its repeated strikes on missile caches and command centers.

Based on the intel it had gathered, Israel targeted numerous sites beyond the well-known facilities at Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan, including labs and sites used to produce materials for nuclear weaponization, The Times said. Many of the sites struck were operated by the SPND, the military organization led by nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, whom Israel allegedly assassinated in 2020.

Israeli intelligence had agents "monitoring multiple locations" in Iran for years as it readied a potential attack, the paper said.

It said intelligence officers had spies map out the layout of the Natanz facility before it was attacked and destroyed, identifying overground and subterranean targets involved in uranium enrichment, electrical infrastructure and R&D.

Reconnaissance infiltrated other sites, including Isfahan, Nur, Mogdeh, the Sanjarian nuclear component facility, the Shariati military base, and the Shahid Meisami hangar — believed to house plastic explosives and advanced materials used in nuclear detonation testing.

The report also said intelligence documents show Israel penetrated the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which was also heavily targeted by the IDF.

Israel launched its surprise operation against Iran on June 13 when it launched a sweeping assault on Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The 12-day conflict came to a close Tuesday when a US-brokered ceasefire took hold.

Israeli forces targeted top military leaders, nuclear scientists, uranium enrichment sites and ballistic missile programs in the country to dismantle the "existential threat" posed by the Islamic Theocratic Republic.

Iran responded by launching over 550 ballistic missiles and around 1,000 drones at Israel, killing 28 people and wounding thousands, according to health officials. The missiles hit apartment buildings, a university and a hospital, as well as critical infrastructure sites, causing heavy damage.

Link

Warning: Undefined property: stdClass::$T in /data/rantburg.com/www/pgrecentorg.php on line 132
-12 More