Iraq |
'At my first meeting with Saddam Hussein, within 30 seconds, he knew two things about me,' says FBI interrogator |
2023-03-19 |
Long — you’ll want a comfortable chair, dear Reader, a cup of coffee (or your preferred equivalent), and a plate of snacks. If you know more about interrogation that I, you may have opinions on the conclusions of FBI interrogator George Piro (Lebanese-American Christian), not to mention CNN interviewer Peter Bergen. A taste: [ShafaqNews] Two decades ago, on March 19, 2003, President George W. Bush ordered the US invasion of Iraq. Bush and senior administration officials had repeatedly told Americans that Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein was armed to the teeth with weapons of mass destruction and that he was in league with al Qaeda.These claims resulted in most Americans believing that Saddam was involved in the September 11, 2001, attacks. People believe lots of things, especially with the aid of the mainstream media. Here at Rantburg we concluded that While Saddam Hussein had included Al Qaeda cadres in Iraq’s terrorism training school at Salman Pak, he intended to use them against the world rather than joining them in their jihad to establish a Sunni caliphate. A year after 9/11, two-thirds of Americans said that the Iraqi leader had helped the terrorists, according to Pew Research Center polling, even though there was not a shred of convincing evidence for this. Nor did he have the WMD alleged by US officials. |
Link |
Home Front: WoT |
Trump held private, enlisted-only Afghanistan war meetings – ‘No generals or officers, only enlisted guys that have been there' |
2019-12-27 |
![]() Trump did not want to meet with higher ranking officers, instead choosing to meet with enlisted troops to get a more candid assessment of the America's longest-running war, Business Insider reported. "I want to sit down with some enlisted guys that have been there," Trump reportedly told advisers, according to Peter Bergen, author of "Trump and His Generals: The Cost of Chaos." "I don’t want any generals in here. I don’t want any officers," he added. Enlisted members of the military may have been seen as better able to critique the war effort as their roles tend to place them closer to combat and the consequences of a command. Enlisted members are also less concerned with the day-to-day politics that might affect higher ranking officers. Trump reportedly compared the opinions of senior military officers to those of a restaurant consultant. Rather than taking the advice of the consultant, who would suggest expanding a kitchen for renovations, Trump argued it would be more prudent and cost effective to ask the advice of the waiters who see the day to day operations and can identify the most basic problems in a restaurant's functions. One of the first groups Trump reportedly met with were enlisted Navy SEALs who criticized the war and said the war in Afghanistan is "unwinnable." "NATO's a joke. Nobody knows what they're doing," the SEALs reportedly told Trump. "We don't fight to win. The morale is terrible. It's totally corrupt." On another occasion on July 18, 2017, Trump held a White House meeting with four more Army and Air Force senior enlisted service members. "I've heard plenty of ideas from a lot of people, but I want to hear it from the people on the ground," Trump said at a press conference for the July 2017 meeting. Following that meeting, Trump reportedly gathered senior military officials to the White House situation room, where he then warned that the enlisted members he spoke with know "a lot more than you generals," and said that "we're losing" the war in Afghanistan. Many senior military officials expressed similar misgivings about the war when speaking candidly with U.S. government agency Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) in an effort to identify failures in Afghanistan. Those candid assessments of those officers, coupled with their more positive public views of the war effort, formed the basis of the ‘Afghanistan Papers;' which have identified dishonest official views and reports of the war in Afghanistan. The Trump administration has since gone back and forth on how to bring about an end to the 18-year war. Trump had engaged in peace talks with the Taliban, but called off the negotiations after deadly Taliban attacks throughout the process. Talks briefly resumed in December but were again paused over renewed attacks. Recent reports have also alleged a Trump decision for the withdrawal of up to 4,000 U.S. troops in the coming weeks and months, though no Trump administration officials have publicly confirmed the reporting. |
Link |
Fifth Column | |
The Iran echo chamber tries to save its nuclear deal | |
2019-05-18 | |
[FreeBeacon]![]() Never mind that President Trump, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Patrick Shanahan, and Bolton have not said a single word about a preemptive strike, much less a full-scale war, against Iran. Never mind that the president's reluctance for overseas intervention is well known. The antiwar cries are not about context, and they are certainly not about deterring Iran. Their goal is saving President Obama's nuclear deal by manipulating Trump into firing Bolton and extending a lifeline to the regime. It's a storyline that originated in Iran. Toward the end of April, Zarif showed up in New York and gave an interview to Reuters where he said, "I don't think [Trump] wants war," but "that doesn't exclude him basically being lured into one" by Bolton. On May 14, an adviser to Rouhani tweeted at Trump, "You wanted a better deal with Iran. Looks like you are going to get a war instead. That's what happens when you listen to the mustache. Good luck in 2020!" And now this regime talking point is everywhere. "It's John Bolton's world. Trump is just living in it," write two former Obama officials in the Los Angeles Times. "John Bolton is Donald Trump's war whisperer," writes Peter Bergen on CNN.com. "Trump's potential war with Iran is all John Bolton's doing. But it might also be his undoing," says the pro-Iran Trita Parsi on NBCNews.com. "Is Trump Yet Another U.S. President Provoking a War?" asks Robin Wright of the New Yorker. Guess her answer.
| |
Link |
Afghanistan | |
Opium fuels the stalemate in America's longest war | |
2017-08-10 | |
[CNN]
The Taliban ...Arabic for students... -- which banned poppy cultivation when it ruled Afghanistan -- now appears to wield significant control over the war-torn country's heroin production line, providing murderous Moslems with billions of dollars, officials have told AFP. In 2016 Afghanistan, which produces 80 percent of the world's opium, made around 4,800 tonnes of the drug bringing in revenues of three billion dollars, according to the United Nations ...an idea whose time has gone... The Taliban has long taxed poppy-growing farmers to fund their years-long insurgency, but Western officials are concerned it is now running its own factories, refining the lucrative crop into morphine and heroin for exporting abroad. "I pretty firmly feel they are processing all the harvest," William Brownfield, US Assistant Secretary for Drugs and Law Enforcement told news hounds in the Afghan capital Kabul recently. Everything they harvest is duly processed inside the country. They receive more revenues if they process it before it has left the country. "Obviously we are dealing with very loose figures, but drug trafficking amounts to billions of dollars every year from which the Taliban is taking a substantial percentage," he added. Poppies, which are cheap and easy to grow, make up half of Afghanistan's entire agricultural output. Farmers are paid about $163 for a kilo of the black sap -- the raw opium that oozes out of poppy seed pods when they are slit with a knife. Once it is refined into heroin, the Taliban sells it in regional markets for between $2,300 and $3,500 a kilo. By the time it reaches Europe it wholesales for $45,000, according to a Western expert who is advising Afghan anti-narcotics forces and asked not to be named. He said an increase in seizures of chemicals required to turn opium into morphine, the first step before it becomes heroin, such as acid anhydride, points to an escalation in Taliban drug activity. Sixty-six tonnes of the chemicals were seized in all of 2016, while 50 tonnes were impounded in just the first six months of this year, the expert said. In early July, he said, 15 tonnes were confiscated in the west of Afghanistan near the border with Iran, the start of a popular drug route to Europe through ...the only place on the face of the earth that misses the Ottoman Empire.... - 'Helmand is all about drugs' - Seizures of morphine have also increased. Fifty-seven tonnes were discovered in the first half of 2017 compared to 43 tonnes for the whole of 2016, added the expert, who said that only about 10 percent of what is produced is actually discovered. "It's easy to build a rudimentary laboratory -- walls of cob, a thatched roof -- and when the operation is finished it is evacuated," the source told AFP. Afghanistan's interior ministry said that between January and June, 46 clandestine drug factories were closed down by anti-narcotics officers compared with 16 in the first half of last year. The US Drug Enforcement Administration predicts that the crackdown has deprived traffickers of about $300 million in income since the turn of the year. A senior Western official who asked not to be named was adamant that the Taliban have their own laboratories, describing the southern province of Helmand ...an Afghan province populated mostly by Pashtuns, adjacent to Injun country in Pak Balochistan... , where an estimated 80 percent of Afghan poppies are grown, as a "big drug factory". "Helmand is all about drugs, poppy and Taliban. The majority of their funding comes from the poppy, morphine labs, heroin labs. Of course they have their own labs," he told AFP. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) opium production provided about half of the Taliban's revenues in 2016. David Dadge, a front man for UNODC, says there is "anecdotal evidence" that Taliban Überstürmbannführers are involved in the manufacture of opiates, but says that stops short of proving that the Taliban as an organization has a systematic programme of running factories. | |
Link |
-Land of the Free | |
CNN: Why David Petraeus would be a smart choice for Trump's secretary of state | |
2016-11-29 | |
| |
Link |
Home Front: Politix |
FBI chief: Success against ISIS means more terror |
2016-08-01 |
![]() Battlefield success against ISIS may produce more terrorism for the West, FBI Director James Comey warned this week. Speaking to a cybersecurity conference at Fordham University Wednesday, Comey predicted that eventually crushing ISIS in its self-proclaimed caliphate in Syria and Iraq will likely result in dispersing terrorists elsewhere. "At some point there is going to be a terrorist diaspora out of Syria like we've never seen before," Comey said. "Not all of the Islamic State killers are going to die on the battlefield." The FBI director's warning that the collapse of the caliphate will mean increased attacks in Western Europe and the United States mirrors a consensus among intelligence officials. Comey compared it to the formation of al Qaeda, which drew from fighters who had been hardened and radicalized fighting the Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s and early 1990s. "This is an order of magnitude greater than anything we've seen before" Comey said. "A lot of terrorists fled out of Afghanistan... this is 10 times that or more. "We saw the future of this threat in Brussels and in Paris (attacks earlier this year)." And just not in the West. There have recently been stepped up ISIS attacks worldwide, including in countries near its home base territory that has been shrinking due to military losses in Iraq and Syria. In the last several weeks, there have been mass casualty killings at a nightclub in Orlando, Florida; the Istanbul airport in Turkey, a café in Bangladesh, a market in Baghdad, the Bastille Day celebration in Nice, France; a protest in Afghanistan and on Tuesday, the murder of an elderly priest in Normandy, France, all carried out by ISIS fighters or in the name of ISIS. CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen blames a more complex regional breakdown for sowing the attacks. He notes that the fracturing of authority in Iraq, Syria and Yemen has produced a massive migration of Muslims from those regions to Europe, which prompted reactionary political parties there to rail against them. In France they live in largely segregated communities where youth unemployment can run as high as 45%. "Many French Muslims live in grim banlieues, the suburbs of large French cities (similar to housing projects in the United States), where they find themselves largely divorced from mainstream French society," Bergen writes. "All these feed into ISIS' narrative that Muslims are under attack by the West and also by the Shia as well as by any Muslim who doesn't share their extremist ideology." CIA Director John Brennan recently told Congress it was still critical to take away ISIS' safe haven territory because it gave the group a base for training operatives and raising revenue. At the end of May, ISIS' chief spokesman and ideologue, Abu Mohammed al Adnani, tried to reframe how ISIS defines victory. In an audio message, he said defeat would not result from losing control of cities but from "losing the will and the desire to fight." One Western counterterrorism official predicted "a metastasis of terror as it becomes increasingly difficult for ISIL (another acronym for ISIS) to hold on to core territories." |
Link |
Terror Networks |
Is bin Laden's son being groomed for key al Qaeda role? |
2016-05-17 |
[CNN] One of the late Osama bin Laden's ... who is now sometimes referred to as Mister Bones... sons could be expanding his role as a terrorist front man, with al Qaeda this week releasing another video that features his voice. On Monday, an audio recording surfaced in which Hamza bin Laden calls for unity among jihadi hard boyz in Syria, who currently fight under competing banners ranging from ISIS to al Qaeda. He also calls for jihad against Israel and its American backers to "liberate" Paleostine, according to a translation by the SITE Intelligence Group. It is his second such recording in less than a year, and could represent an effort by al Qaeda to capitalize on the impact of the bin Laden name. "Obviously, he has the family name," said CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen. "He's now playing a propaganda role, and he's a lot younger than some of the other leaders of al Qaeda, in their 50s or their 60s." Hamza bin Laden is believed to be in his early or mid-20s, and could represent al Qaeda's next generation. "From a very early age, his father was kind of grooming him," said Bergen, who just published the book "United States of Jihad." "Hamza has been very much indoctrinated with the whole jihadi kind of message. He's a true believer. I think that makes him a concern." Hamza bin Laden was not at his father's compound at the time of the raid by American special forces in 2011 -- unlike one of his brothers, who was killed there. Papers found at the compound indicate that Hamza had been sent off for terrorist training. "Just a month before the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound, we know Hamza was somewhere else in Pakistain being trained by al Qaeda leadership," said Thomas Joscelyn, a terrorism researcher with The Long War Journal. "He was receiving high-end explosives training." But it is not clear whether Hamza bin Laden now has an operational role in planning terrorist attacks, or whether his role is primarily focused on Qaeda's propaganda operation. According to Joscelyn, "al Qaeda is saying, 'This is the new generation of jihadi leadership. This is the new bin Laden, who is going to ultimately lead us into the future." One U.S. intelligence official tells CNN that Hamza bin Laden currently has a relatively small role in the organization, but that al Qaeda could be grooming him for possible future leadership positions. "I don't think he's necessarily going to run al Qaeda tomorrow," said Bergen, "but the family name, the fact that he's a younger guy, the fact that he's a true believer -- all that suggests that he likely will play an important role in al Qaeda going forward." While al Qaeda's subsidiary franchises have been thriving in Yemen, Syria, and North Africa, al Qaeda's parent organization in Pakistain has lost a number of top leaders, many of them to American strikes. Showcasing Hamza bin Laden, according to another U.S. intelligence official, "appears to be an attempt by al Qaeda to fill gaps in its ever-dwindling bench." |
Link |
India-Pakistan |
'No more drone strikes in Pakistan' |
2014-05-30 |
[DAWN] The CIA's assassination program in Pakistain, once the mainstay of President Barack ObamaIf you like your coverage you can keep it... 's counterterrorism effort, is winding down. Because of stricter rules, diplomatic sensitivities and the changing nature of the al Qaeda threat, there hasn't been a US drone strike in Pakistain's tribal areas since Christmas. And American officials say opportunities for drone attacks will dwindle further as the CIA and the military draw down in neighboring Afghanistan, reducing their intelligence-gathering footprint. "The program (in Pakistain) appears to have ended," said Peter Bergen, who has closely studied drone strikes for the New America Foundation, a Washington think tank. US officials won't go that far, but Obama announced this week a plan to pull nearly all American troops out of Afghanistan by the end of 2016. The assassination program in Pakistain relies on drones flown from, and intelligence gathered in, US bases in Afghanistan that would then be closed. |
Link |
India-Pakistan |
The drone debate |
2012-10-14 |
[Dawn] AS young Malala Yousufzai struggles for her life, spare a thought for Imran Khan![]() ... aka Taliban Khan, who who convinced himself that playing cricket qualified him to lead a nuclear-armed nation with severe personality problems... whose recent high profile motorcade to Tank has been completely overshadowed by the cowardly attack on the 14-year old girl. But apart from losing all the publicity the PTI leader was hoping to get, he has also lost the argument he was trying to build against the American drone campaign. Correct me if I'm wrong -- and I'm sure many of Imran Khan's supporters will -- but his argument runs something like this: Once American drone strikes cease, and the Pakistain Army halts all operations in the tribal areas, then militancy will automatically die down. How? By the tribes throwing out the hardline beturbanned goons who, according to Khan, make up a tiny proportion of the Pak Taliban and their ilk. But all evidence points to the decimation of tribal leaders with the courage to stand up to the gunnies who have infested and taken over their villages. Every time they have tried to raise a lashkar to fight the Death Eaters, they have been bumped off, blown up, or beheaded. According to the South Asia Terrorism Portal, a website on terrorism in South Asia, 109 tribal elders have been killed by gunnies in the last seven years. The other thing Imran Khan is apparently keen on is that we negotiate with the thugs who attacked Malala Yousufzai. He forgets that there have been many talks and truces with these killers, and every agreement has been broken by them. When the provincial government handed over Swat ...a valley and an administrative district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistain, located 99 mi from Islamabad. It is inhabited mostly by Pashto speakers. The place has gone steadily downhill since the days when Babe Ruth was the Sultan of Swat... to Mullah Fazlullah ![]() Mullah FM, Fazlullah had the habit of grabbing his FM mike when the mood struck him and bellowing forth sermons. Sufi suckered the Pak govt into imposing Shariah on the Swat Valley and then stepped aside whilst Fazlullah and his Talibs imposed a reign of terror on the populace like they hadn't seen before, at least not for a thousand years or so. For some reason the Pak intel services were never able to locate his transmitter, much bomb it. After ruling the place like a conquered province for a year or so, Fazlullahs Talibs began gobbling up more territory as they pushed toward Islamabad, at which point as a matter of self-preservation the Mighty Pak Army threw them out and chased them into Afghanistan... and his gang in 2008, they not only terrorised the population, but soon tried to take over Malakand. However, some people are alive only because it's illegal to kill them... what got the army moving was the video clip of a young woman being flogged publicly by the Taliban in 2009. Public anger pushed the administration into action, and Fazlullah's militia was finally driven out of the valley. But it seems they can still attack there with impunity. Perhaps their attempt on Malala's life will be a similar tipping point, and public revulsion will put pressure on the government to step up the campaign to rid us of bad boy militancy. While Imran Khan dubbed his recent motorcade a peace march, he seemed to be calling for surrender: 'peace' implies a cessation of hostilities by both parties. Here, Khan is calling on the Americans to stop targeting gunnies with their drones, and on the Pakistain Army to halt all operations in the area. But to the best of my knowledge, he has not called on the beturbanned goons to also cease their attacks on state and civilian targets within Pakistain. Despite his courtship of the religious right, he has been rebuffed by the Pak Taliban who denounced him as a 'Westernised liberal'. There is delicious irony here as Khan never tires of applying the same label to his critics. But the Taliban made it very clear that he is not welcome on their turf, and this is the reason he and his convoy turned back at Tank without entering South Wazoo. So if the Taliban decide who can enter where they operate, clearly the state has no control over the area. The question then arises if we can claim illusory sovereignty here. This is important because the main thrust of the protest over American drones is based on the charge that they violate our illusory sovereignty. Can we make this claim without control over the territory? The other issue, of course, is one of collateral damage: several studies and reports purporting to count the cost of drone attacks have come up with conflicting numbers. A recent one, commissioned by the human rights ...not to be confused with individual rights,mind you... organization Reprieve, and carried out by Stanford and New York universities, has come out with anecdotal accounts based on conversations with a small sample of selected locals. The unambiguous conclusion of the report is that drones not only inflict unacceptable civilian casualties and psychological damage, they do little to solve the problem. However, some people are alive only because it's illegal to kill them... other studies and reports are not as critical. A New American Foundation analysis cited by Peter Bergen in a CNN report suggests that under Obama, civilian fatalities were 11 per cent of the total killed in the drone campaign, and stand at two per cent in 2012. Conversely, the number of beturbanned goons killed is 89 per cent of the fatalities. While even a single death is tragic, few in the anti-drone camp talk about the tens of thousands of civilians and soldiers slaughtered by the Death Eaters. They are similarly silent about the hundreds of schools blown up by the Taliban. How many Malalas have been deprived of an education because of the stone-age mentality of these killers? In talks I have given at universities in the US, the UK and Pakistain, I have been frequently asked about the drone attacks. In response, I have posed a counter-question: if the drone attacks are stopped, what is the alternative? Should we allow these armed gangs to continue making life hell for the unfortunate villagers they hide behind? Should the Americans permit them to cross the border at will and launch attacks across Afghanistan? For people like Imran Khan urging the governments of Pakistain and the US to halt their operations against the Pak Taliban, here is a sobering voice: in an article (Pakistain's Peace Deals with the Taliban) on the Combating Terrorism Centre website, Daud Khattak concludes: "None of the agreements with Taliban factions involved in attacks on Pakistain lasted more than a few months, and the breaking of each agreement resulted in severe bouts of violence including attacks on government installations, security forces and civilians. "From the Taliban's perspective, by levelling demands at the government and then entering into negotiations, it demonstrates to civilians in the tribal areas that Death Eater leaders are strong enough to sit at the same table as the country's top military officials. This solidifies support for the Taliban among their followers, and suppresses the voices of resistance from civilian populations living under their authority." The reality is that the Taliban understand -- as Imran Khan and his supporters do not -- that they must pull down the whole country to their primitive level if they are to succeed in their ambition to seize control of the state. This is just what their Afghan cousins did when they were in power. They see talks as a tactic and not as a path to peace. Ultimately, their attack on Malala demolishes the anti-drone argument in a way no reasoned argument ever could. |
Link |
Home Front: WoT |
Can we declare the war on al Qaeda over? |
2012-06-28 |
by Mary Habeck![]() Every once in awhile some "national security analyst" will decide it's time to end the WoT because... ummm... well, because they're against war and stuff. This is one of those occasions... First, Bergen begins with a false analogy by arguing that the current war is nothing like World War II, and that therefore there can be no culminating peace as was signed between the Allies and Nazi Germany. This argument implies that a definitive victory over al Qaeda, one on the model and scale of the victory over the Nazis, is impossible. Bergen's not big on the oderint dum metuant idea, it seems... ![]() It does take a certain amount of ruthlessness, however... For instance, from 1898-1954, the U.S. absolutely defeated three separate insurgencies in the Philippines, including a nationalist insurgency, an insurgency by local Mohammedans, and a communist insurgency. The British took on and repeatedly defeated insurgencies (the Boers, the Malay communists, and the Kenyan Mau-Mau, for instance), and it is actually difficult to find, beyond the Sandinistas and Castro's group, an insurgency that has succeeded in Latin America. The Malay war was for a time the "handbook" on guerrilla warfare. The Brits weren't particularly gentle, though, so HRW and Oxfam and similar groups would no doubt be hissy fitting if it was going on now. We won't even discuss the Mau Mau war, which made the Malay war look downright friendly. And then there's the Sri Lankan war against the Tamil Tigers, which is still causing hissy fits and should be being mined as the new handbook on successful counterinsurgency. Second, Bergen argues that the war against al Qaeda is not an "essential challenge" to the U.S. and thus can be safely relegated to some level of effort short of war. It is true that the death of 3,000 Americans in the first attack on the U.S. homeland since WWII was not an existential threat to the U.S., nor have the pinpricks that al Qaeda has managed since 9-11 posed a serious challenge to the continued existence of the United States. On the other hand, this assessment fails to take into consideration the global growth of al Qaeda, its absorption of every other major jihadist group on the planet, and its ability to take and control territory throughout the Mohammedan-majority world. I don't agree that they've shown they can take and hold territory, even in the Moslem world. Unless the state is failed on the order of Somalia or Mali they always fold when opposed by even a half-trained military. Saleh let AQAP grow in Yemen for his internal political purposes, but Hadi -- with one foot still in the Saleh bucket -- has been able to rout them from Abyan and is apparently in the process of chasing them into Oman. Al-Shabaab is an Islamist version of the Somali warlord, and her neighbors are systematically ejecting them. They're not as hard to get rid of as, for example, DR Congo rebel commanders. While I have heard some deride this spread as only threatening the 'garden-spots' of the world, we need to remind ourselves that it was from just this sort of uncontrolled territory that 9-11 was carried out, and once the 'garden-spots' are taken, our vital lines of communications and territories that we (apparently) care more about will be threatened. In addition, I would note that it has only been through our wartime footing that we have managed to keep al Qaeda in even this loose net. If we downgrade our effort, al Qaeda will be able to grow even faster and push its control even further. Afghanistan's an exception to the Qaeda suppression rule because the actual nerve center of the the operation is in Pakistain. As in the case of Saleh, they've got their own reasons for keeping Afghanistan in Islamic turmoil. The fact that most of the country's leadership would qualify for straight jackets if they lived anywhere else is beside the point: the Pak government thinks al-Qaeda, the concept of takfir wal-hijra, and Islam in general are all tools of state policy. Third and fourth, the article goes on to conclude that it is possible to "declare victory" and move on because 1) al Qaeda's offensive capabilities are "puny" and 2) U.S. defenses are strong. The first of these assessments is based on an assumption about al Qaeda that is unwarranted; that is, that al Qaeda's main objective and goal is to attack the United States. The recent release of documents from Abbottabad ... A pleasant city located only 30 convenient miles from Islamabad. The city is noted for its nice weather and good schools. It is the site of Pakistain's military academy, which was within comfortable walking distance of the residence of the late Osama bin Laden.... make it clear that attacking the United States was (and is) but the first step in a staged strategic plan, a plan that begins by attriting the United States, and weakening it so much that the United States will be forced out of all Mohammedan-majority countries. So what we're actually looking at is the "clash of cultures" that keeps being deprecated. Arabian culture is different from Western culture at a more fundamental level than is, for example, Han Chinese culture. It's more on the order of the antagonism between the West and Japan in 1936, only with a lot more population. We face a culture that would be, but for oil money, weak and non-productive but with a colossal inferiority complex. As a matter of religious principle they take half of the potential productiveness of society and reduce it to breeding stock. We can "declare victory" over that kind of system when there's no further need for Arabian oil anywhere. At that point the Arabian-descended cultures will revert to what they were 150 years ago, to whit: not much and no threat to anyone but the occasional shipping company. The next stage of al Qaeda's strategic plan is to take over and control territory, declaring "emirates" that will be able to spread safely because the United States will be too weak to intervene. This is what they're finding is easier than in theory than in practice, but it'll become easier if we suddenly become uninvolved in the process... This means that the affiliates are not just dangerous when they attack the United States (which Bergen implies in his article), but are a threat to our security when they overthrow local governments and set up local emirates that have greater, global ambitions. I would also note that while polling data is important for understanding how well we are doing in our fight against al Qaeda -- and here the indications are positive -- it is a fact that insurgencies need only a tiny percentage of active support in order to be self-sustaining (usually defined as 5 percent of the populace). Al Qaeda would like the consent of the governed, but they are perfectly happy to violently enforce obedience to their rule when necessary. They have no trouble with oderint dum metuant. In fact, I might go so far as to disagree with the idea that they would like the consent of the governed. As a matter of Islamic principle that's irrelevant... And by the way: No al Qaeda affiliate or partner (including the Taliban, al Qaeda in Iraq, or the Shabaab) has been deposed from power by an uprising of the local population alone. They have needed outside intervention in order to expel the myrmidons, even when the people have hated al Qaeda's often brutal rule. You have to think twice about rebelling if you're liable to have your head chopped off. On Bergen's second point, I agree that U.S. defenses are strong, but disagree profoundly with the current mission of Special Operation Forces as the right method to defeat al Qaeda. This counter-terrorism mission is based on killing al Qaeda members, i.e. attrition, a strategy that assumes that al Qaeda is still a terrorist group as it was in the 1990s. This is simply not true. Even then, the group's leadership aspired to bigger things, and al Qaeda has now succeeded in becoming an myrmidon group, one that takes and holds territory, recruits far more soldiers than we can kill, sets up shadow governance and attempts to overthrow governments around the Mohammedan-majority world. I keep saying that they're a lot more like Fu Manchu than they are like, for instance, Communism. The idea sounds so stoopid on its face that it's easy to discount unless you actually sit down and read a few Sax Rohmer novels followed immediately by the newspaper. Especially a Pak newspaper. While attrition can succeed as a strategy against terrorist groups (see i.e. the Spanish and French fight against ETA), it is absolutely counterproductive against an insurgency, which simply uses the killings to recruit more members and to fuel its propaganda. Except that it did work for the Lankans. And for the Brits in Malaysia and in Kenya. However, brute attrition went out at 11 o'clock on 11-11-1918. Counterterror (and counterinsurgency operations in general) have to be intel-driven and the intel has to keep targeting the upper echelons of the enemy. Decapitation's a lot different from attrition, and it's more effective. Fifth, some part of Bergen's declaration of victory is based on wishful thinking. He argues, for instance, that killing or capturing AQAP's bomb-maker will 'likely' cause the threat from AQAP to recede. This assumes that 1) the bomb-maker never trained replacements and 2) that AQAP is incapable of thinking up other ways to attack us. It also ignores the real threat from AQAP if it manages to overthrow the government in Sana'a and push on into Soddy Arabia. ...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in their national face... ... but it looks like it's going to have to be through Oman... Finally, the last sentence of his article is a straw man. These "declare victory" epistles are usually attacking them from start to finish. The objective of the Allied war on the Nazis was the same as every other regular war: To break the enemy's will to resist. It was simply not necessary to kill every Nazi in order to achieve this objective. The objective of irregular wars is rather different, however: to secure the population by clearing out the myrmidons; then holding the territory through persistent presence; and finally creating the political conditions necessary to prevent any further appeal by the remaining myrmidons. It's that last area where we fell down in Afghanistan... In this view, winning against al Qaeda does not depend on body counts, Counterinsurgency never does. Didn't work for us in Vietnam, didn't work for the Sovs in Afghanistan... but rather would look very much like victories against other myrmidons: the spreading of security for populations in Somalia, Yemen, the Sahel, and elsewhere; the prevention of a return of al-Qaeda to these cleared areas; and the empowerment of legitimate governments that can control and police their own territories. By these standards, we have not yet defeated al Qaeda; in fact, beyond Iraq, Afghanistan, and Somalia, we have hardly engaged the enemy at all. We've been ignoring the propaganda war. Qaeda should be an object of derision and contempt after eleven years of war and we still give Islam and especially Islamism too much respect. They spend their time posing and waving guns and blowing themselves up, almost as often unintentionally as intentionally. They're good at chopping the heads, hands, feet and probably other appurtenances off civilians but crummy at facing real soldiers. As a matter of national policy we should harp on those points every day. Instead we get "national security analysts" telling us to hang it up because they're tired of being at war. |
Link |
India-Pakistan | |
The Pakistani Perspective: The Meaning Of Osama Bin Laden One Year Later | |
2012-05-13 | |
FIRST, THERE WAS SPIN Was he, or wasn't he? Did the SEALs shoot him unarmed, or did he go down fighting? Were the Paks involved, or incompetent, or both. The post-mortem chatter about OBL was confusing, if not confounding. The Basic Booboo from D.C.: The day after bin Laden was killed, White House officials gleefully pointed out that we was living in comfort with his family in a walled, fortress-like house far from the rugged war zones of Pakistain's triba; areas or southern Afghanistan. "Here is bin Laden, who has been calling for these attacks, living in this million-dollar plus compound, living in an area that is far removed from the front, hiding behind women who were put in front of him as a shield," Brennan told news hounds. "I think it really just speaks to just how false his narrative has been over the years."- Counter Strike: The Untold Story of America's Secret Campagin Against Al Qaeda - Eric Schmitt & Thom Shanker CIA's Black Beard Vanity Fair The CIA's release of five videos of bin Laden on May 7th, just days after they were recovered from his hideout, illustrated the B.O. regime's efforts to minimize the al Qaeda leader's mystique, even among mainstream Moslems who admired him for standing up to the West. The selected outtakes from bin Laden's recorded messages to his followers appeared to be part of an American effort to underscore bin Laden's vanity. In one video, bin Laden is shown watching himself on television in his house, and his beard is mostly white. In the other four videos, in which bin Laden addresses the Moslem world, his beard is black. US intelligence officials openly speculated that the al Qaeda leader had dyed his beard black in these videos in order to appear younger.- Counter Strike: The Untold Story of America's Secret Campagin Against Al Qaeda - Eric Schmitt & Thom Shanker THE OSAMA PAPERS The 175-page cache posted online by the US Military Academy's Combating Terrorism Center - in the week marking a year since Bin Laden's death provides a flurry of insights about the man and his machine, Al Qaeda. Here's how it was analyzed: Fearing Nature, Not Pakistain? Perhaps the most notable communication, however, is one dated Aug. 27, 2010. In it, bin Laden fears for the safety of his fighters and followers in Pakistain-not because they might be tossed in the clink- Bruce Hoffman, director of Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies and a senior fellow at the U.S. Military Academy's Combating Terrorism Center in The Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, May 8, 2012 No Pak Smoking Gun There is no explicit reference to any institutional support from Pakistain, where the al-Qaeda leader lived for nine years...The papers make mention of "trusted Pak brothers", but one reference suggests Bin Laden was wary of Pak intelligence - BBC backgrounder, "the late Osama bin Laden ... who no longer has to waste time and energy breathing... 's document's released", May 3, 2012 Rebranding Al Qaeda: His concerns in fact centered on his belief that Western media and al Qaeda's enemies were misportraying the movement by focusing only on its violent side and ignoring its political aims and aspirations. Bin Laden thus sought a new name for the movement that would more accurately reflect its ideological pretensions and self-appointed role as defender of Moslems everywhere. - Bruce Hoffman, director of Georgetown University's Center for Security Studies and a senior fellow at the U.S. Military Academy's Combating Terrorism Center in The Wall Street Journal Op-Ed, May 8, 2012 Fifteen Seconds of Fear: How OBL/Al Qaeda rated the western press Fox News "falls into the abyss as you know, and lacks neutrality too." CNN "seems to be in cooperation with the government more than others." And "ABC channel is all right; actually it could be one of the best channels, as far as we are concerned." HOW HE LIVED OBL's "million dollar mansion" was recently razed, prior to his first death anniversary, by a government wary of it becoming an icon and thus a mecca for terror-tourists, gawkers and wannabe jihadists. But a new book takes us inside the "Pacer's" (the pre-Geronimo code-name for OBL) compound: A Manhunt Revealed We learn, for example, that Bin Laden's two older wives, both academics, taught the children Arabic and read from the Qur'an in a bedroom on the second floor. Almost every day, apparently, the al-Qaeda leader, a strict disciplinarian, lectured his family about how the children should be brought up.
Nor were Bin Laden's living conditions particularly salubrious. A tiny bathroom off the bedroom he shared with his Yemeni third wife had green tiles on the walls but none on the floor, a rudimentary squat toilet and a cheap plastic shower. In this bathroom, Bergen tells us, Bin Laden (54 when he died) regularly applied Just for Men dye to his hair and beard. Next to the bedroom was a kitchen the size of a large closet, and across the hall was Bin Laden's study, where he kept his books on crude wooden shelves and tapped away on his computer. There was no air-conditioning.- Jason Burke of The Guardian, reviewing Peter Bergen's newly released "Manhunt" FRIENDS OR THERAPISTS? There was a lot of flak after Neptune Spear, and post-mortem OBL, most of it hit Pakistain. When ![]() PervMusharraf ... former dictator of Pakistain, who was less dictatorial and corrupt than any Pak civilian government to date ... stated so to CBS's 60 Minutes on September 25, 2005 that "One thing is very sure, let me assure you, that we are not going to hide him for a rainy day and then release him to take advantage,"that categorical denial, though punctured by OBL being found in killed in Abbottabad ... A pleasant city located only 30 convenient miles from Islamabad. The city is noted for its nice weather and good schools. It is the site of Pakistain's military academy, which was within comfortable walking distance of the residence of the late Osama bin Laden.... , still continues to hold mostly true. Allegations on Pakistain, Spun & Counterspun "It was decided that any effort to work with the Paks could jeopardize the mission. They might alert the targets." - Leon Panetta ...current SecDef, previously Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. Panetta served as President Bill Clinton's White House Chief of Staff from 1994 to 1997 and was a member of the United States House of Representatives from 1977 to 1993.... to Time Magazine, May 3, 2011 Both countries "cooperated in making sure" that the operation leading to bin Laden's death was "successful". - CNN quoting Hussain Haqqani, May 2, 2011 "We assisted only in terms of authorization of the helicopter flights in our airspace" and that "we did not want anything to do with such an operation in case something went wrong." - Anonymous Pak official confirming to CNN's Nick Paton Walsh that there was Pak cooperation into the operation, May 2, 2011 Bin Laden hiding "deep inside" Pakistain was a matter of grave concern for India, and showed that "many of the perpetrators of the Mumbai terror attacks, including the controllers and the handlers of the snuffies who actually carried out the attack, continue to be sheltered in Pakistain". - Wall Street Journal quoting P. Chidambram, the Indian Home Minister, May 2, 2011 "Clearly to be able to be there he must have had some support mechanisms - absolutely." - China's Xinhua news agency quoting Prime Minister Julia Gillard on May 3, 2011 "We would have destroyed them long ago" Nazarov said, if other countries didn't manipulate terrorist groups for "geopolitical goals." For instance, in Pakistain Osama bin Laden wasn't an invisible man, and many knew his whereabouts in North Wazoo, but whenever security forces attempted a raid on his hideouts, the enemy received warning of their approach from sources in the security forces.- Point 7(C) of Wikileaks Cable 09DUSHANBE1433, quoting State Committee for National Security (GKNB) Deputy Chairman for Counterterrorism General Abdullo Sadulloevich Nazarov of Tajikistan (dated Dec 16, 2009) The fact that Bin Laden was living in a large house in a populated area suggests that he must have had a support network in Pakistain. - UK Prime Minister ![]() ... has stated that he is certainly a big Thatcher fan, but I don't know whether that makes me a Thatcherite,which means he's not. Since he is not deeply ideologicalhe lacks core principles and is easily led. He has been described as certainly not a Pitt, Elder or Younger,but he does wear a nice suit so maybe he's Beau Brummel ... to the House of Commons, May 5, 2011 HOW IT HAPPENED Navy SEAL Team Six? DEVGRU? JSOC? SOCOM? The world came to know much about the units and formations involved in the operation. But Vice Admiral McRaven's operational module have been well explained in few places: Who Did Him In? Their names may never be known, their faces may remain unsees, but the strike package that flew by helicopters out of Jalalabad, Afghanistan, for the bin Laden compound numbered seventy-nine" Navy SEALS, intelligence specialists, medical corpsmen, translators, and the bomb-sniffing dog. Little is known of the strike team commander, other than that he had scores of successful raids under his belt and that McRaven described him to White House officials as "absolutely the single guy I would choose for this mission" - Counter Strike: The Untold Story of America's Secret Campagin Against Al Qaeda - Eric Schmitt & Thom Shanker Inside the Assault Team For the operation, bin Laden was assigned the code name Geronimo. Inside the White House Situation Room, the president and his war council followed the mission via video link narrated by Leon Panetta at CIA headquarters. Soon after Panetta announced, "They've reached the target". One of the four helicopters carrying the assault team lost lift and descended faster than anticipated owing to unexpectedly warm temperatures. Its tail snapped off against a wall, but there were no injuries. The SEAL team commander adjusted his plans, and the unit executed its well-trained art of improvisation. A second helicopter which had been tasked to hover over the main building while the commandos fast-roped onto the roof, instead landed on the ground inside the compound. A third flew in from reserve. The SEALS set explosive charges to blow open a door to the main house and brick wall behind it, which some said was a false door disguised as ruse. Abu Ahmed al-Kawaiti, the courier whose SUV had led American intelligence to the compound, began shooting at the strike team, which returned fire, killing him and his wife. A second man - al-Kuwaiti's brother, was spotted and believed readying to shoot; he too was killed. As the commandos made their way up a stairwell,l bin Laden's son Khalid rushed toward them and he was killed as well. Smashing into the third-floor rooms atop the guesthouse, the commandos came face to face with bin Laden himself. "We have a visual on Geronimo," Panetta told the officials gathered in the Situation Room. An AK-47 and Russian-made Makarov 9-mm automatic pistol were said to be within the Al Qaeda leader's reach. One of bin Laden's wives charged at the strike team; she was shot in the leg but not killed. A few minutes later came the message, "Geronimo EKIA" - Enemy Killed in Action - with the trademark close-quarters sharpshooting of the American Special Operations forces, the deadly efficient "double-tap". One bullet to the head and one to the chest.THE FOLLOW UP BEGINS "We want to disable Al-Qaeda...There are several significant leaders still on the run. Al- Thus spoke US Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton ... sometimes described as the Smartest Woman in the World and at other times as Mrs. Bill, never as Another Jeremiah S. Black... , on an NDTV moderated interactive session in India. A year after, the timing of Clinton's visit, as well her coupling of the 2008 Mumbai attacks (which Pakistain is deemed largely responsible by more than a few forums and governments), should be an ominous sign of the post-OBL shadow that continues to lurk over Islamabad. "We are well aware that there have not yet been steps taken by the Pak government to do what both India and the U.S. have repeatedly requested that they do and we are going to keep pushing that point," Ms. Clinton said, adding that she had recently authorised a $1-million reward for information leading to the capture of Hafiz Muhammad SaeedThe Post OBL Treasure Hunt There has been some mondo bizarro showmanship from strange quarters of late. One stream is from Bill Warren, a US Congressional hopeful turn treasure hunter, who claimed that he has located where OBL's body was thrown. "I'm the only one with this information. It's 200 miles to the west of the Indian city of Surat." Warren's being making claims for several months now, but he is showing more confidence than another, very different probe: The four-member Abbottabad Raid Commission, headed for retired justice Javed Iqbal, which is months overdue to publish its findings and which, at the time this paper was going to print, had leaked to the Pak press that the President's ![]() President Ten PercentZardari ... sticky-fingered husband of the late Benazir Bhutto ... 's response, or the lack of it, was causing delays in the publication of the report. Insiders state that everyone, from the Abbottabad traffic police to the Prime Minister, will be blamed for the 'intelligence failure'. | |
Link |
India-Pakistan | |
Embarrassment and patriotism | |
2012-05-12 | |
Around 7:45 in the morning on 2nd May 2011, two consecutive calls on my cellphone pulled me out of bed. 'Osama has been found and killed in Abbottabad ... A pleasant city located only 30 convenient miles from Islamabad. The city is noted for its nice weather and good schools. It is the site of Pakistain's military academy, which was within comfortable walking distance of the residence of the late Osama bin Laden.... ,' said the caller, my younger brother. This electrifying revelation worked more than what the early morning coffee does to you. A strong sense of disbelief, shock and shame overtook me. A year later, early morning on May 3, I found an absorbing account of a visit to Osama's compound in Abbottabad in my email. An old friend Peter Bergen, author and terrorism expert, had managed to get access in February this year, and thus came back with a riveting account of the compound.
'Unless all these boys [OBL, Mullah Omar ... a minor Pashtun commander in the war against the Soviets who made good as leader of the Taliban. As ruler of Afghanistan, he took the title Leader of the Faithful. The imposition of Pashtunkhwa on the nation institutionalized ignorance and brutality already notable for its own fair share of ignorance and brutality... , Hekmetyar] are pulled out of the basements of their hideouts in Pakistain, there will be no peace in Afghanistan, nor will the violence come down,' Saleh had thundered in a gathering of almost 350 people at the National Press Club, where I was also to read a paper on the troubles in the border regions. Saleh repeated those words immediately after the Operation Neptune Spear - mounted to take out Bin Laden - and exuded a certain sense of vindication in several interviews he gave in days after Osama's elimination. And rightly so. Although skeptical Paks and officials, particularly those from the security apparatus, dismissed certain details of the Washington narrative on the raid, yet his wives admitted before the Abbottabad Commission, that Osama was indeed present in the compound when the US SEALs hit. They had been living there since late 2005. The commission even reconstructed a video that the Americans claimed had been recovered from the Bin Laden house. The film, released a few days after the incident, depicts Bin Laden sitting in a small cabin-sized shabby room in front of a small, possibly 21-inch old-fashioned TV and playing with the video remote control. The widows' deposition before the Commission essentially gave a lie to all the skeptics who - still mired in a state of denial - refused to believe that OBL was present at the time of the raid. May 2 indeed was the most shameful day for Paks; it exposed the many lies they had been fed and living with.And it was in this context that the American ambassador to Pakistain, Cameron Munter, took on the skeptics by posing counter-questions to news hounds at a press stakeout in Bloody Karachi ...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It may be the largest city in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous... on 9 May 2011: 'We need to know what was he doing all these years in Pakistain', Munter asked, echoing the suspicions running deep in Washington since the killing of Bin Laden. Most outsiders, including US politicians in the Congress, began questioning the possible motives of the ISI and other Pak security institutions: Had they been protecting Bin Laden, the most wanted terrorist since he disappeared in December 2001 from the Tora Bora cave complex in Afghanistan? The wives practically demolished all the conspiracy theories and questions surrounding the debate over Osama's life at the compound. He was there indeed and went cold within seconds after a SEAL pierced his head and chest with two bullets through the silencer-armed rifle. He was almost instantly dead because of the fatal gunshot in the head. What an unbelievable end to the man who challenged the sole superpower and was solely responsible for sucking the USA into the history's longest conflict, being fought in the largely mountainous and socially tribal Afghanistan that refuses to transition into a democratic and pluralistic society. Much of it we owe to the legacy that Osama has left behind in the region. Some of the supporters of Osama's ideology continue to be a source of external pressure, embarrassment and diplomatic isolation of Pakistain. Ironically, rejection and denial followed foreign secretary ![]() ... sometimes described as The Liberatress of Libyaand at other times as Mrs. Bill, never as Another George C. Marshall... 's May 7 remarks in New Delhi about Dr Ayman al- ![]() ... Formerly second in command of al-Qaeda, now the head cheese, occasionally described as the real brains of the outfit.Formerly the Mister Big of Egyptian Islamic Jihad. Bumped off Abdullah Azzam with a car boom in the course of one of their little disputes. Is thought to have composed bin Laden's fatwa entitled World Islamic Front Against Jews and Crusaders. Currently residing in the North Wazoo area. That is not a horn growing from the middle of his forehead, but a prayer bump, attesting to how devout he is... 's perceived presence in Pakistain. Hina Rabbani Khar, the foreign minister, demanded "actionable proof" if the US had it. But viewed against the abysmally low trust in Pakistain's security establishment, why will the American establishment risk failure by sharing information about the new most wanted terrorist? No amount of denial will fend off external pressures. Only demonstrable actions can help, at least restraining the anti-US and anti-India rhetoric. There is no way around this at all, unless those in power are bent upon piling more misery and isolation on the people of Pakistain. Why are we upset over Zawahiri's alleged presence somewhere in Pakistain? After all, beside the late Osama bin Laden ... who was laid out deader than a mackerel, right next to the mackerel... , Abu Zubaida, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, Aimal Kansi, Adil Al Jazeeri, Ramzi bin al Shibh, Abu Faraj al Libi, Ilyas Kashmire, Abu Yazid, Tahir Yuldashev inter alia were all discovered either in the tribal areas or in big cities such as Rawalpindi, Faisalabad, Bloody Karachi, and Abbottabad. | |
Link |