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India-Pakistan

Why Nawaz Sharif failed to win Pakistan election despite tacit army support

2024-02-13

[Al Jazeera] When Nawaz Sharif, the three-time former prime minister, emerged on the balcony of his party’s headquarters in Lahore on Friday night, fireworks went off as he was given a rousing welcome by the crowd of nearly 1,500 people.

Sharif started out with what has now become the staple of his public addresses, asking the crowd of his Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) supporters, “Do you love me?”. The response, “We love you!”, echoed among his adoring audience.

Yet, more than three days after Pakistan voted in general elections, there is little evidence that the sentiment of Sharif’s core supporters is shared by the wider public in the nation of 241 million people that stunned analysts in their voting patterns on February 8.
[insert definition of insanity here]
For weeks before the elections, the PMLN was viewed by experts as the favourite to secure a clear victory that would give the 74-year-old political veteran another chance to rule Pakistan. Once targeted by Pakistan’s military establishment, Sharif appeared to have won the favour of the generals for the 2024 vote.

So confident were Sharif and the PMLN of their win that they had scheduled a victory speech from their leader for Thursday night, barely hours after polls closed. Then, the results started coming in, and the bubble was burst.

“As the voting patterns emerged, it shocked and surprised the party, forcing a rethink which is why they were in complete silent mode for nearly 12 hours,” said Majid Nizami, a political analyst, and a specialist on elections.

When Sharif finally addressed supporters on Friday, he claimed victory, but acknowledged that his party had failed to secure a simple majority and so would need coalition partners to form a government.

“This was not the result the party was expecting. They thought they would achieve more than 85 percent of seats from Punjab province, but initial trends showed they were barely getting 50 percent of seats,” Lahore-based Nizami told Al Jazeera.

Almost all of the remaining seats in Punjab, the bastion of Sharif’s PMLN, went to candidates backed by former PM Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) — a party that experts believed had been decimated by targeted political and legal attacks in recent months.

WHAT WENT WRONG?
As the dust settles on the election results, the PMLN has emerged with 75 seats in the national assembly, trailing PTI-backed independent candidates by 20 seats.

The PTI alleges widespread manipulation and tampering, insisting that it has been denied a far larger majority and that their mandate has been “stolen” to benefit Sharif and his PMLN.

So, what happened to the PMLN, a party that, as late as early 2022, was leading opinion polls in popularity over PTI and was considered the strongest party in Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous and electorally important province?

For Lahore-based political analyst and editor Badar Alam, the roots of PMLN’s disappointing performance in the polls can be traced back to April 2022 when Imran Khan, the PTI chief, and then-prime minister were ousted through a parliamentary vote of no-confidence.

At the time, Sharif was in self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom, after a series of corruption-related convictions. His party allied with the country’s other traditional political force, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) and others under what was called the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM), to topple Khan’s government.

They succeeded. But, said Alam, “once Shehbaz Sharif, Nawaz’s younger brother, took over as prime minister, his attention went towards removing all the cases and convictions against his elder brother.”

These are cases that have haunted the Sharif brothers for three decades. The elder Sharif, who ruled the country twice in the 1990s, has been dogged by corruption allegations since then. In 1999, he was ousted in a military coup. His third term in power, after the PMLN won the 2013 elections, was marked by intensifying rivalry with Khan, who eventually won the 2018 election, backed at the time by Pakistan’s powerful military establishment that has ruled the country directly for more than three decades and has influenced politics from behind the scenes for much of the rest of the country’s existence.

Yet, since relations between Khan and the military soured, and he was ousted in 2022 — with the military now seemingly backing the PDM government — Pakistan has been through torrid political, economic and security crises.

Salman Ghani, a political analyst who has been covering the PMLN for a long time, said that as the leading party of the PDM, the decisions of that government hung heavy around the Sharif brothers’ necks.

“The 16-month rule of PDM caused almost irreversible damage to the PMLN. The tenure saw massive inflation, hitting the public everywhere, including their own vote bank,” Ghani told Al Jazeera. “Theirs is a party of development and the economy; people support them for delivery, not for ideology. That perception was destroyed in that time.”

Pakistan was on the verge of defaulting on loans last year, with its foreign reserves depleting to less than $4 billion dollars, and its rupee depreciating rapidly against the US dollar. A $3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund helped stave off a default temporarily.

Sharif returned home from his exile three months before the elections. Many analysts believe that Sharif’s return and the subsequent change in his legal fortunes — with convictions against him dropped and restrictions against contesting elections removed — were made possible only because the military had decided to back him in the 2024 vote.

Meanwhile, Khan has been charged in more than 100 cases; was jailed in August and barred from contesting in the elections; and was sentenced in three separate cases just the week before the February 8 polls.

His party faced a crackdown — senior party officials were arrested, many were apparently coerced to leave his movement, and the PTI was barred from even using its election symbol, the cricket bat, in the elections. Its candidates were forced to contest as independents.

But the PTI wasn’t the only party that suffered. The PMLN and the military, seen by many ordinary Pakistanis as being behind the crackdown, made the mistake of underestimate popular support for Khan, said Ghani.

“When a person is oppressed, their support increases massively. We saw that in the case of Nawaz Sharif himself. Those who are pushed against the wall, they are the ones to retaliate the most. PMLN did not understand this,” he added.

Alam, the Lahore-based analyst agreed.

“Not even once did they [the PMLN] condemn the violence and persecution of the PTI; in fact, they played their part in fully subjugating them. This made PMLN a victimiser, resulting in public anger against them,” he said.

A party leader acknowledged that the PMLN had been blindsided by the recent election results.

“PMLN is on the defensive; Nawaz Sharif is on the defensive,” he told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity.

The insider also blamed “sycophants” within the party, whom he accused on focusing on their own interests, for the PMLN’s failure to adapt its messaging as public opinion started to swing against it.

“Nawaz Sharif used to be very adept at handling media himself, but now that isn’t the case,” he said.

While the PMLN supremo, in his speech on Friday, did name other parties the PMLN might seek alliances with to form a government, he did not mention the PTI.

Alam said that PMLN and Nawaz Sharif must show some “grace”.

“PMLN came in as a party that was a government-in-waiting. PTI and Khan were in survival mode, but they upset the predictions. The country is in crisis, and it is imperative for Sharif, if he thinks he is a statesman, to concede and ask PTI to form a government,” Alam said.

Lahore-based Ghani said that the election risked compounding the country’s political, economic, and security challenges.

“Countries, when they hold elections, their objective is to bring stability. Democracy functions when it holds elections, and a mandate is earned. In our country, the election result is causing further instability,” he added.

Ghani said that Sharif, in his Friday speech, ought to have acknowledged the support of voters for Khan and the PTI, and indicated a willingness to “reach out to them”.

But what about the party’s own support base and future? It’s not looking very good for the PMLN, said Nizami, the analyst.

“Their strength and hegemony were in central Punjab area, from where they used to sweep the number of seats. It was unthinkable for them to lose votes. Yet, they have been losing ground to PTI and are unable to stop the rot,” he said.

“They have much to ponder now.”

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India-Pakistan

Five injured as political workers clash in Jhang

2015-12-07

LAHORE: Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif taking notice of injuries to five people in an armed clash between activists of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) in Purani Chungi locality of Jhang on Sunday.

According to reports, five political workers were injured in exchange of fire between activists of PTI and PML-N after which protest was held by the supporters of the former party blocking Jhang-Faisalabad Road resulting in massive traffic jam on both sides of the road.

The road was later opened after interruption of police. CM Shahbaz Sharif taking the notice of the incident has directed the authorities to arrest the culprits besides presenting a report in this regard.

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India-Pakistan

Punjab ready to welcome IDPs, says Nawaz

2009-05-30

[Geo News] Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) Quaid Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif has said that the internally displaced persons (IDPs) are welcome in Punjab.

Talking to federal minister for Railways Ghulam Ahmed here on Friday, Nawaz Sharif said the IDPs, hailing from Swat valley and Malakand Division, have offered an exemplary sacrifice by being parted with the luxurious lives for the sake of safeguarding the upcoming future of the entire people of Pakistan.

"The terror attacks and bombings like coward activities could not derail country away from democracy", he asserted.

Federal minister for Railways Ghulam Ahmed, on the occasion, thanked PML-N and Punjab government over their extended help for the assistance and rehabilitation of IDPs.

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India-Pakistan

PML-N warns US against interference in Pakistain matters

2009-04-24

[Geo News] The central leader of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and leader of opposition in National Assembly (NA) Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan has asked US not to interfere in the matters of Pakistan relating to internal affairs. He ruled out reports on change of N-league policy adding, "PML-N is waiting for the outcomes of ongoing dialogue between the government of Pakistan and chief of TNSM Sufi Muhammad". Nisar was talking to media after he met with PML-N chief Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif here at his residence on Thursday afternoon. Opposition leader in NA said we have extended our support to Nifaz-e-Adl regulation accord but he also hinted at his party's several reservations over the agreement. He said the resolution to the rising problems of Swat is not as simple as it is being portrayed. "Eighty per cent peace has been established in Swat", he remarked highlighting, "Government is presently avoiding use of power and force in Swat while our party is analyzing the situation in the valley at the moment". He hoped his party would apprise nation of its policies on Swat soon.

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India-Pakistan

Pakistain: Video footage shows 'calm' gunmen after attack

2009-03-05

(AKI) - By Syed Saleem Shahzad - Pakistan's News TV released video footage on Thursday of two of the armed gunmen who carried out the violent attack against Sri Lanka's cricket team in the eastern city of Lahore. The vision showed the gunmen looking calm and composed after the attack that shook the city on Tuesday.

The footage showed the two men entering a narrow street after the deadly attack before they left on a motorcycle. The gunmen did not encounter any member of the Pakistani security force, and appeared to have no fear of being stopped, the footage showed.

"The reason is obvious," commented the opposition Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz Sharif group's spokesperson Siddiqul Farooq. "The entire focus of the Punjab's administration was to contain Nawaz Sharif's demonstration," Farooq said.

He was referring to last week's protests in Lahore, the capital of Punjab, over a ruling by Pakistan's Supreme Court preventing PML-N leader Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz from contesting general elections in 2013. The ruling removing Shahbaz Sharif as head of the provincial government and dismissing the entire provincial cabinet. "Therefore they did not chalk out any security plan which would have ensured security of the team as well as the security of the nearby streets," Farooq maintained.

Some experts have clamed Punjab-based militants were responsible for the attacks and that they may have planned to take the Sri Lankan cricket team hostage to extract concessions over jailed militants and the safe passage of their colleagues to the lawless North Waziristan tribal area bordering Afghanistan.

As evidence experts said the gunman appeared to have targeted police escorting the team bus. Six policemen escorting the Sri Lankan cricket team and a driver died in the attack, and eight cricketers were injured.

Adnkronos International's sources confirmed the newly appointed inspector general of police, Khawaja Khalid Farooq, spent hours late on Monday with the governor of Punjab, Salmaan Taseer, discussing opposition protests. There have been calls from the opposition for Taseer to resign since the Lahore attack. He automatically became chief executive of the province following last week's Supreme Court ruling.

The Punjab administration is pondering how to handle the opposition parties as well as forthcoming protests by lawyers and a planned sit-in in the capital, Islamabad.

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India-Pakistan

JUI-F likely to get three federal ministries

2008-03-19

The Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) will get three ministries at the Centre on a basis of an agreement reached by the four partners of the national coalition government on Tuesday.

The four coalition parties the Awami National Party (ANP), the Pakistan Peoplees Party (PPP), the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) and the JUI-F held a meeting here to discuss the formula for ministriess distribution at the Centre.

A source privy to the meeting told Daily Times that the JUI-F would be given at least three ministries, as the party enjoys more representation in the Senate as compared to its would-be partners. The JUI-F only had six members in the National Assembly, which qualifies it for only one ministry under the formula agreed upon between the PPP, the ANP and the PML-N.

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India-Pakistan

Govt set to deport Sharif brothers to S. Arabia, plan finalized

2007-09-10

Government has finally decided to deport Former Prime Minister and Quaid Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif to Saudi Arabia on his return to Pakistan today (Monday). The Plan in this respect has been finalized. Protocol will be given to Former Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif when his airplane would be landed at Islamabad International Airport, top-level sources in the Government told Online on Sunday.

On arrival at Airport, Mian Nawaz Sharif Ex-Prime Minister and Mian Shahbaz Sharif Former Chief Minister Punjab will be taken to state Guest lounge where they will rest for sometime and then will be sent back to Saudi Arabia through Special plane.

Some Arab dignitaries will also present on the occasion who were guarantor of the agreement stuck with Nawaz Sharif about his exile for 10 years. Neither Quaid PML-N will be handcuffed nor he will be arrested so that the implementation can be ensured on verdict of Supreme Court of Pakistan.

Sources added that the personalities including media men, who are coming alongwith Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, would not be deported to Saudi Arabia. They will be taken out from Airport and be boarded in separate bus.

Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif and Mian Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif in the presence of Saudi Personalities will be told to board another Plan for Jeddah. On arrival at Jeddah, Arab authorities will confiscate the Passport and other traveling documents of both brothers and they will spend their more three years terms of exile in Saudi Arabia according to the agreement.

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India-Pakistan

Taliban responsible for February 14 riots

2006-03-05

LAHORE: Investigations have revealed that a group of about 12 young Afghan men incited protestors to ransack buildings and set vehicles ablaze. Some investigators told Daily Times that they believed Taliban were involved in the violence. Several police and intelligence agency teams have seen videos of the violence and questioned the arrested protestors to conclude that the instigators looked like Afghans.

Meaning they were Pashtuns...

However, it is yet to be found out who called them to Lahore. Investigation revealed that a 30-year-old bearded man clad in brown shalwar kameez led the group of foreigners that incited the angry mob and disappeared when they made Operations SSP Amir Zulfiqar Khan hostage and forced him to shout anti-government and anti-US slogans.

"Yes! They forced me! They made me do it!"

The Taliban leading the mob pointed towards targets running to them and shouting God is Great, and the mob followed, said a security official.

None of them members of the mob, of course, was capable of controlling himself...

Daily Times talked to a couple of protestors who confirmed these reports. Muhammad Azhar, a religious activist, said the violence began outside Islamia College, Civil Lines, where a group of students wearing college uniform tried to remove a banner with President Pervez Musharraf and Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahis pictures, but police baton-charged them. The men wearing shalwar kameez appeared suddenly. They threw stones at the police and incited the students to do the same, Azhar said.

"So y'see, they didn't think of it on their own, so they're not responsible, right?"

He said the men led the students to Lower Mall police station where they smashed cars and motorcycles, after which the religious and political parties procession arrived from Data Darbar and the situation worsened. Qaiser Iqbal, another eyewitness, said he saw religious and political leaders telling the mob to stay calm but the pathans continued to provoke them. Qaiser said when they provoked people to smash cars inside Lahore High Court, nobody listened to them. The people who attacked the Punjab Assembly were identified and one of them has been arrested. Punjab Law Minister Raja Basharat said some tribal area residents were among the miscreants but it could not be confirmed if they were Afghans.

"We're sure they were, though. Paks would never do that sort of thing..."

He said he did not want to mention names of the religious and political parties whose supporters were involved in the violence, but said Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz and Jamaat-e-Islami activists had been identified by the footage and arrested. A Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal source told Daily Times that some religious groups had called students from madrassas of Balochistan and tribal areas to Lahore and Peshawar for violence and sabotage activity. He said they looked like Afghans but they were not, and they supported Taliban. They are the same people that were invited by MNA Maulana Hamidullah to attack a mixed marathon in Gujranwala last year.

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Afghanistan/South Asia

Interview with Javed Ibrahim Paracha

2004-09-03

The 52-year-old Javed Ibrahim Paracha is one of the most controversial politicians of Kohat because of his deeply held anti-Shia beliefs. He was actively supported in the 2002 contest for a national assembly seat by the banned sectarian-terrorist organisation, Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan. He came to politics early as a student leader representing the Deobandi student wing of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam. To remain involved in student politics, he spent most of his life in educational institutions doing four masters in law, history, Islamiyat and Arabic from the University of Peshawar.

Later, he broke away from JUI of Fazlur Rehman after developing differences with the JUIF leadership. He contested the 1997 election on a Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz platform and won it. He was also opposed to the Deobandi parties' move to put together an alliance by including in it a Shia party. When sectarian violence was at its peak, Paracha was appointed the head of Sunni Supreme Council, an organisation he has been leading for ten years now. The SSC primarily focuses on countering the Shia sect.

Paracha is widely known to have instigated sectarian violence in the Hangu district and parts of the tribal Orakzai Agency during the nineties. His anti-Shia views were very clear when TFT interviewed him in 1998. Today, he tries to play this down. Two former deputy commissioners of Kohat TFT spoke with were agreed that Paracha is a born troublemaker. One of them said: "He is a master of using the religious card to blackmail bureaucrats." Recently, the government has alleged that he was involved in facilitating the terrorists suspected of blowing up federal targets on the Independence Day. Paracha denies the charge and has moved the provincial High Court. TFT spoke with him in Kohat regarding the latest charges and his general reputation as a sectarian troublemaker.

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