Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Evgeniya Kondakova
[REGNUM] Elections are a domestic political matter, because they determine how the state will live in the future, but sometimes the outcome of the vote in one country has an impact on global processes. And it so happened that in the outgoing year such elections took place in a continuous series, one after another, turning the whole of 2024 into a continuous global plebiscite: a year of fateful choice.
The tone of the global election marathon was set by the election campaign in the United States. In 2024, millions of people in different parts of the world followed with interest the intrigue that lasted until the last minute.
HERE THE BULLET WHISTLED...
The 45th US President Donald Trump was eager to take revenge for his 2020 defeat, which he still does not admit. And none of his fellow party members could provide him with real competition in the primaries. Republican voters wanted Trump to reach the "final" of the race. Many Americans believe that this was not only what voters wanted, but also higher powers.
There was a debate in the Democratic camp about whether Joe Biden should run. According to the established political tradition in America, the incumbent president is re-elected for a second term, and his fellow party members do not interfere with this. However, the cognitive abilities of the White House occupant began to raise serious doubts.
No matter how much the White House tried to convince the public that the president was in good health and of sound mind, everything became obvious during the debates with Trump (by the way, this was the first time in US history that two people who held the presidential post met).
After the obvious fiasco of the Democratic Party, there was nothing left but to replace the candidate in the midst of the campaign - US Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race. Trump also risked leaving the election race following his sworn friend Biden, but then the very intervention of higher powers happened.
During a rally in Pennsylvania on July 13, two days before the party's national convention, he was assassinated, but the politician, by a lucky chance, turned his head to the side in time to read the inscriptions on the posters about illegal immigrants, otherwise the bullet would have hit the target.
As security tried to escort the former president off stage, he raised his fist into the air, shouting, "Fight!" The gesture later appeared on Republican campaign posters.
As a result, Trump won the election, receiving 312 electoral votes (with 270 needed), while Harris received 226. Thus, Trump became the second president in history to serve a second non-consecutive term; previously, this achievement was only achieved by Democrat Grover Cleveland, who led the country in 1885–1889 and 1893–1897.
There are several interesting electoral features to note about these elections.
The share of independent voters has grown to 43%. In addition, in 2024, Americans began actively voting early, and, surprisingly, this method was often chosen by Republicans, although they had previously been skeptical about it, considering it a source of fraud. This became one of the factors in Trump's victory, which is due personally to his daughter-in-law Lara, co-chair of the Republican National Committee (she left this post immediately after the election), who insisted that Republican voters take part in mail-in voting.
In addition to the presidential elections, the Democrats also lost the congressional elections - both chambers came under the control of the Republicans. After this fiasco, Biden practically did not appear in public, his fellow party members were indignant about this, because two months before the inauguration, Trump actually began to determine the political course of the United States.
Harris disappeared from the radar altogether.
RIGHT TURN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
In Europe, the trend that took place last year continued – the strengthening of the positions of right-wing political forces, both at the EU level and in individual countries. However, such a turning point in this struggle as happened overseas did not occur in the Old World.
In the European Parliament elections in June, right-wing parties increased their representation, while the allies of individual country leaders suffered defeat.
Thus, the People's Party of Spain and the Freedom Party of Austria overtook the ruling parties. In France, the National Rally of Marine Le Pen won (34.05%), the Renaissance Party of President Emmanuel Macron finished second (14.44%).
In Germany, the top two places were taken by the largest opposition force, the CDU/CSU (30%) and Alternative for Germany (15.9%), while Chancellor Olaf Scholz's SPD came in third (13.9%).
However, the majority in the European Parliament remains with the mainstream centre-right European People's Party, so the right has not been able to radically change the course of the pan-European representative body. But voters have sent a powerful signal about their mood.
This signal resonated especially strongly in France, where it alarmed the leader of the Fifth Republic so much that Marcon made a decision that was unexpected for many: to dissolve parliament and call early elections in order to obtain a majority. As a result, this undertaking resulted in a deep political crisis for France.
The National Union emerged as the leader in the first round of elections, but by uniting against the right in the second round, the left-wing bloc New Popular Front and the government coalition Together for the Republic prevented them from coming to power.
This was followed by lengthy negotiations, due to which France did not have a prime minister for almost two months, and eventually they settled on the candidacy of the former Brexit negotiator on the EU side, Michel Barnier, representing the Republican party, which took 4th place in the elections. However, he only held the post for 90 days, during which he managed to approve the social part of the budget expenditures bypassing parliament. After his resignation, Macron appointed former French Justice Minister François Bayrou as prime minister.
The right was not allowed to come to power in Austria either, although it was the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) that won the parliamentary elections with 28.8%, the ruling Austrian People's Party took 2nd place (26.3%), and the Social Democratic Party of Austria took 3rd place (21.1%). The country's President Alexander van der Bellen instructed the three parties that received the most votes to conduct coalition negotiations.
FPÖ Chairman Herbert Kickl made it clear that the Freedom Party would only participate in a coalition government if he himself were chancellor, but the other political forces did not express their willingness to join a coalition with him, and so the head of state instructed the current chancellor, Karl Nehammer, to form a government.
A vote of no confidence was also announced in 2024 for the German government. The Traffic Light coalition fell apart due to internal squabbles, resulting in a minority government (SPD and Greens) in Germany, which had to coordinate any of its initiatives with the CDU/CSU. Germans' dissatisfaction with the quality of life grew, and, as a result, there was a lack of confidence in the government, and early elections were scheduled for February.
The leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, has a good chance of becoming the next chancellor, although in the latest poll, AfD co-chair Alice Weidel was the most popular politician in Germany. For the first time in its history, the Alternative will nominate a candidate for chancellor – it will be Weidel. And for the first time, the Alternative took first place in the state elections in Thuringia, and in Saxony it became second (after the CDU).
ELECTORAL CHAOS ON THE EU PERIPHERY
The history of the presidential elections in Romania also clearly demonstrates the fatigue with systemic forces and the thirst for change.
According to the results of the first round, to the surprise of many, the victory with 22.95% was won by independent candidate Calin Georgescu, a former second-rate official who entered the elections with slogans of strengthening national sovereignty, ending aid to Ukraine and restoring good relations with Russia.
He called Vladimir Putin "a man who loves his country."
But the fight for 2nd place was fought until the last counted ballot. As a result, the head of the center-right Union for the Rescue of Romania, Elena Lasconi (19.18%), who advocates for strengthening cooperation with NATO and the EU, as well as increasing defense spending in Ukraine, was 0.3% ahead of the current Prime Minister of Romania, Marcel Ciolacu from the Social Democratic Party, who was generally considered the favorite in the elections and at the same time an inconvenient figure for Brussels.
At first, the Constitutional Court of Romania approved the results of the first round of elections, but soon - after the secret services declassified documents that allegedly testified to the illegal financing of Georgescu's election campaign, hacker attacks on the country's digital infrastructure, and the notorious "interference" of Russia - it radically changed its decision and cancelled the results, ordering that the election campaign be held anew.
As the court ruling states, “one of the candidates used aggressive propaganda by over-exploiting the algorithms of social media platforms.” This is clearly Georgescu, who, in the absence of a campaign headquarters, campaigned primarily on TikTok.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov compared the situation in Romania with the 2004 elections in Ukraine, when instead of Yanukovych winning the majority of votes, a third round of elections was called, with Yushchenko emerging as the winner.
Naturally, there was no Russian interference in the Romanian elections, as confirmed by the investigative journalism portal snoop.ro. The National Tax Administration Agency of Romania established that Georgescu's election campaign was financed by the National Liberal Party of Romania, not Moscow.
INTOLERABLE WOMEN OF THE POST-SOVIET SPACE
And in the post-Soviet space, current female presidents are holding on to their posts with all their might.
On October 26, parliamentary elections were held in Georgia. There, the ruling Georgian Dream – Democratic Georgia, which advocates traditional values, national sovereignty and pragmatic relations with Russia, set itself the task of obtaining a constitutional majority (113 out of 150 seats, or ¾). It was opposed by a whole bunch of pro-Western opposition parties that sought to overthrow the Dream, which had been in power since 2012.
As a result, Georgian Dream won for the fourth time in a row, gaining 53.93% of the votes (thus receiving 89 mandates, which is significantly less than the target of 113).
The opposition did not recognize the results of the vote and staged mass riots in Tbilisi. The President of Georgia herself, French citizen Salome Zurabishvili, called for protests in protest of the ruling party's victory and demanded that a new vote be held.
On December 14, presidential elections were held in Georgia, and according to new rules: the head of state is now elected not by citizens directly, but by a panel of 300 people (all 150 members of the Georgian parliament and 150 representatives of local authorities, including members of the highest representative bodies of the Abkhaz and Adjara Autonomous Republics), and not for six, but for five years.
The opposition did not put forward its candidate for them, and the only contender for the highest post was former MP and earlier football player Mikheil Kavelashvili, who was nominated by the Georgian Dream. As a result, he gained the necessary 2/3 of the electoral votes for victory (or 224, to be exact) and is due to take office on December 29. However, Zurabishvili does not intend to give up power.
So the republic's authorities are left with two options: either to put up with Zurabishvili's presence, or to use force and literally remove her from the presidential chair. Dual power is looming on the horizon, with some TV channels planning to broadcast Zurabishvili's New Year's greetings, while others are going to broadcast Kavelashvili's.
In Moldova, Maia Sandu and Alexandru Stoianoglo are competing for the presidential post.
Sandu, who lived in the United States while serving as an adviser to the executive director of the World Bank, advocates rapprochement with the EU and NATO and is an outspoken supporter of Ukraine. Stoianoglo, a native of Gagauzia, led the Moldovan Prosecutor General's Office to make major strides in investigating the "theft of the century" — the theft of $1 billion from Moldova's banks shortly after a Western-backed coalition of pro-European parties came to power in 2009.
In the first round, Sandu won by a small margin, but in the second round, the total votes of the opposition electorate should have been enough for Stoianoglo to win. But the young lady found a way to get out of the situation. Having lost at polling stations located in Moldova itself, she snatched the overall victory thanks to the votes received at more than 200 polling stations opened in EU countries. In Russia, only two foreign polling stations were opened.
De facto, following the election results, Sandu became the president of the diaspora, and Stoianoglo the president of Moldova, as local media and social media users wrote, but de jure Maia remained in the presidential chair.
THE QUESTION OF LEGITIMACY
It so happened that 2024 will be the year of presidential elections in both countries involved in the Ukrainian conflict, although they are elected for different terms (in Russia for six years, in Ukraine for five).
The outcome of the vote in Russia was predictable - Vladimir Putin was re-elected for another term, but another aspect is important here - he gained 87.28%, and this is the highest result for all the elections in which he participated since 2000. 76,277,708 people voted for the current president. This indicates that the overwhelming majority of citizens trust the head of state and approve of the course he is implementing both within the country and in the foreign policy arena.
u Scholz, Biden and Macron." How Germany elected the Russian president
And what about Ukraine? Nothing.
Volodymyr Zelensky, citing martial law in the country, cancelled the elections, arguing that voting could not be held under such conditions. However, not everyone agrees with this interpretation.
"The law prohibits holding any elections during martial law. The Constitution of Ukraine regulates this situation with regard to parliament. According to Article 83, if the parliamentary term ends during martial law, the parliamentary powers continue until the new convocation. But there is no such clause with regard to the president," emphasizes Ivan Brikulsk, an expert in comparative constitutional law.
Putin said the same thing, adding that the only legitimate authority in Ukraine now is the Verkhovna Rada and its chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk
Zelensky has no plans to hold a vote until the fighting ends, but says he will win the next election by a landslide.
However, in December last year, the head of state (then still legitimate) did not think so, Ukrainian media reported. The presidential office cancelled the elections, seeing a threat to the dictator's rating from the increasingly popular commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhny, although he had never expressed presidential ambitions. He was quickly exiled to an honorable exile in Great Britain, violating a number of diplomatic procedures during his appointment as ambassador.
The 2024 global election cycle has clearly demonstrated the main political divide of our time between conservative forces that strive for national sovereignty and peaceful coexistence, and liberals who have placed their bets on war to maintain their own power.
The "icon" of global liberals has become Zelensky, an illegitimate president who cancelled elections in his own country and banned peace talks. Liberals in Romania are clearly following his example, having cancelled election results they didn't like without any reason, and in Georgia, simply refusing to admit defeat. After all, it turns out that this is now possible.
In the US, they tried to kill a candidate who was unpopular with the liberal elites, and if they succeeded, a candidate who had not gone through any preliminary nomination procedures could have come to power.
Against this backdrop, the elites in “Old Europe” are prepared to sacrifice political stability in order to prevent the most popular politicians in society, who advocate sovereignty, traditional values and peaceful coexistence, from coming to power.
The coming year 2025 should tip the scales in favor of one of the two global political camps.
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