Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[REGNUM] In military terms, the authors of the letter to the White House do not offer anything new and recommend continuing the US “soft presence” in Syria, relying on the armed formations of the so-called northeastern administration. What are the authoritative American experts on the Middle East so afraid of?
The year 2023 brought tectonic changes in the Middle East, which not coincidentally coincided with natural disasters in Turkey and Syria. The sudden warming of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, mediated by China, and the gradual exit from the isolation of Syria are the key elements of a great geopolitical transformation, which, of course, does not suit those who have built the architecture of the region for themselves over the past decades.
Last week it became known that a letter was sent to the White House addressed to President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Anthony Blinken from a group of authoritative American diplomats and the military who were closely involved in the Middle East: former ambassadors to the countries of the region, advisers, special envoys and military leaders. Representatives of the Syrian opposition organizations also joined the signatories.
The authors of the letter are concerned about the withdrawal of the government of Bashar al-Assad from international isolation, which is ensured by the so-called Caesar law.
Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act was adopted by the US Congress at the end of 2016, signed by President Donald Trump on December 20, 2019, and entered into force on June 17, 2020. According to the document, various restrictions can be imposed on any person or organization for supporting the Syrian government and its affiliated militias .
The act got its name in honor of the pseudonym of a Syrian military man who fled the country in 2013 and took with him evidence of the alleged war crimes of Assad and his family. In reality, the "Caesar law" targeted the industrial, construction and energy sectors of the Syrian economy, not to mention trade and finance.
This act really hit Syria hard, and after its introduction, the economy of the Arab Republic, which had withstood the hostilities, began to crack, and the currency began to plummet.
So, the “Letter of Forty” calls on Washington to more resolutely oppose Damascus, establish ties, fight against violations of sanctions “not in words but in deeds”, inexorably continue the implementation of the American scenario for the reconstruction of Syria based on the “Syrian Democratic Forces” with the Kurds at the head.
In addition, the authors of the petition demand to stop the receipt of humanitarian aid by the Assad government and redirect the opposition and Kurdish forces for subsequent distribution from their hands.
Also, the authors of the letter are sure that the normalization of relations with the Bash Assad regime is not inevitable and must be stopped.
Violation of the Caesar Act, as well as other American sanctions, is unacceptable and threatens the authority of the international community and its ability to "shape a political process aimed at a meaningful settlement of a civil conflict."
In military terms, the authors do not offer anything new and recommend continuing the "soft presence" of the United States in Syria, relying on the armed formations of the so-called northeastern administration.
What are the authoritative American experts on the Middle East so afraid of?
And I must say that these are not just research workers from institutes and honored pensioners. No, these are people who actually assembled the architecture of power in the region starting almost from the Clinton era.
Conventionally, they can be divided into two parts - career diplomats with extensive experience in service in the East and "siloviki" (military with intelligence officers). Moreover, both the first and the second did not just sit out their pants in the offices, but often performed hard field work.
For example, the same Jeffrey James, the ambassador to Turkey and Iraq, along with Michael Pompeo, went to persuade Erdogan to stop the Turkish operation in Syria in 2019 and succeeded in doing so.
Or Jeffrey Feltman rose to the rank of Deputy Secretary General of the UN, but before that he worked in Jerusalem, then for almost four years as an ambassador to the seething Lebanon, and then left for Iraqi Kurdistan to help Erbil build relations with the outside world.
Another prominent character from the group of signed diplomats is William Roebuck, who was ambassador to Bayhrain for two years, and then was sent as a special representative to the Anti-ISIS Coalition*.
From the same galaxy is the indomitable Ann Patterson, who, before rising to the rank of assistant secretary of state for the Middle East, worked for several years, first as ambassador to Pakistan, and then to Egypt.
The former special representative of the State Department on Syria, Frederick Hof, who fought back in Vietnam and then served in the Middle East, and who is considered the voice of the "hawk" party in government and expert circles, did not change himself.
It is noteworthy that among the authors is the experienced Joel Rayburn, special envoy for Syria in 2018-2021, and one of the “godfathers” of the system of sanctions suppression of this country, an ardent supporter of the “Caesar Law”.
Standing out among the security signatories is General Kenneth McKenzie, the former head of Central Command, who in 2021 was thrown into Afghanistan to prevent disaster during the evacuation.
As you can see, people are not accidental and very knowledgeable, despite the fact that many have already completed their service and are listed as researchers at various academic institutions and think tanks.
Of course, it should immediately be noted that the vast majority of the signatory American figures are people who have experienced the peak of their careers in the era of US dominance and, in essence, belong to the camp of the so-called. hawks, but this does not detract from their professional qualities and knowledge. And their concern in itself is indicative and by no means groundless.
But what made them so worried? Is it really only about Syria and Bashar al-Assad?
Certainly not. Rather, the point is not so much in Assad, but rather in the situation that is now emerging for the Americans in the Middle East.
After Trump's attempt to withdraw troops from Syria, the evacuation from Afghanistan dealt a severe blow to US prestige in the Middle East, and not only the Middle East. Contrary to Washington's official forecasts and statements by the State Department that the Afghan army is fully prepared and can solve tasks quite independently, the Taliban's blitzkrieg * in a matter of weeks crossed out all twenty years of American efforts.
It was after the evacuation, which turned into a flight with abandoned bases, equipment and Afghans falling from the chassis, the US authority cracked even in the eyes of allies such as Saudi Arabia.
And if earlier the Saudis and the UAE tried to justify themselves, if they quietly allowed themselves too much, then after Afghanistan, the behavior became downright self-willed. The refusal of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to increase oil production was quite predictable and predetermined by the Afghan disaster.
Assistance to Syria in the elimination of the consequences of the earthquake was only an excuse to demonstrate the increased independence of the Arab countries. The US, having come across such behavior, has already in fact gone to freeze the “Caesar Law” for 180 days in order to save face.
American attempts to protest against the contacts of the UAE with Syria, and even more so to threaten the Emirates, did not have the expected result, which only spurred other countries in the region to revive communications with Damascus.
Against this background, the concern of American experts is understandable.
The Syrian case may become a second blow, not as loud, of course, as in Afghanistan, but no less strong, and possibly fatal. All Middle Eastern architecture built by the United States over the past decades is at stake.
And the restoration of relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia is only the beginning of a process uncontrolled by the Americans.
As for Syria, it will be indicative if it is reinstated in the League of Arab States before the freezing period of the “Caesar Law” expires, which will force the Americans to either increase aggressive pressure, or quietly lower everything on the brakes, delaying the statement of subsidence their positions de jure.
On the whole, of course, the catastrophe is still far away and the position of the United States is outwardly still unshakable, but the trends are already obvious to the American expert community.
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