[IsraelTimes] Two leading contenders would pull terror group in different directions: prioritizing fighting to keep a grip on the Strip or conceding the battlefield in exchange for survival
Battered but still breathing, Hamas
 ..the well-beloved offspring of the Moslem Brotherhood,...
is set to hold a long-delayed internal election to choose a new chief and political bureau in the coming weeks.
The vote, coming after a years-long military campaign aimed at dismantling the terror group’s rule over the Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response ...
Strip, will likely offer an indication of Hamas’s future direction while broadcasting its continued existence as an organized entity and its ability to project power.
Coming amid slow-moving negotiations aimed at disarming the group and installing a transitional leadership in Gaza under US President Donald Trump
...They hit him with slander, they impeached him twice. Nancy Pelosi tore up his State of the Union address on national TV. They stole an election and put his adherents in jail. They vilified him. They couldn't crucify him, so they shot him. Still, they can't keep him down...
’s ceasefire proposal, the vote will serve to telegraph whether Hamas plans on continuing to fight Israel over Gaza or whether it will shift to a less aggressive stance aimed at buying the time needed to rehabilitate its strength in the Strip and beyond, according to expert Michael Milshtein.
"These elections are about which arena will lead Hamas," said Milshtein, who heads the Paleostinian Studies Forum at Tel Aviv University’s Moshe Dayan Center.
Hamas generally holds leadership elections every four years, but the latest vote, initially scheduled for 2025, was delayed by the war sparked by the terror group’s October 7, 2023, massacre. During the war, Israel assassinated most of the group’s senior political and military commanders.
According to reports in Arab media, the vote is now expected to take place in the coming weeks, roughly a year behind schedule, though the exact timing remains unclear.
Fighting in Gaza broke out following the October 7 onslaught into southern Israel, in which some 1,200 people were killed and another 251 were kidnapped, most of them civilians. Israel vowed in the wake of the worst massacre in its history to wipe out the group, launching a war that left much of Gaza in ruins and killed much of Hamas’s command structure.
However,
you can observe a lot just by watching...
many vestiges of Hamas rule and military strength remain intact since the October 2025 ceasefire took effect, particularly in the approximately 47 percent of Gaza outside of Israeli military control, where nearly all of the enclave’s Paleostinians live.
Based largely outside of Gaza, Hamas’s politburo manages the group’s strategic priorities, including on the diplomatic front, and also directs the Hamas military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, which primarily operates in Gaza and the West Bank. According to Milshtein, a hierarchy remains intact whereby strategic decisions are made by the leadership abroad, while the military wing carries them out.
The elections have historically been conducted in secrecy, with only a few hundred to a few thousand senior members quietly casting ballots and Hamas keeping results under wraps to shield its operatives from exposure to Israeli liquidation attempts. In 2021, however, the group’s confidence in its firm entrenchment in Gaza, with even Israel recognizing its de facto rule over the Strip, led the group to hold the vote in the open and officially announce who had won roles in the political bureau.
This time, Milshtein assessed, the process will likely be more limited and far more covert, given the heavy blows Hamas has sustained across multiple fronts.
"In 2021, Hamas held elections among some 20,000 people in Gaza — almost public elections. You can’t do that in Gaza in 2026," he said, citing the devastation in the Strip and the extensive targeting of Hamas operatives. The only place where he believes organized voting can realistically take place is abroad.
Voting in other areas will also be challenging, at least in part due to Israeli actions against Hamas leadership since the October 7 attack.
"The entire Hamas leadership in the West Bank has been arrested and imprisoned since October 7, and the leadership structure inside prisons itself has been dismantled," Milshtein said, referring to steps taken by the Israel Prison Service that ended the previous system of internal organization and autonomy for Paleostinian security prisoners, including Hamas.
Despite these constraints, Milshtein stressed that coordination between Hamas leadership abroad and its military wing inside Gaza remains strong — and is expected to continue even after the selection of a new leader, who will likely remain outside the Strip for the foreseeable future.
"The ability of those outside Gaza to control what happens inside remains very high," he said. "In Israel people often say there’s a disconnect, that they’re not communicating — that’s nonsense. There is ongoing consultation with those inside Gaza — Mohammed Oudeh, Ali Amoudi, Izz al-Din Haddad — but the hierarchy is clear: the strategic decisions are made outside the Strip, and they implement them."
PARTY OF FIVE
Hamas has not had an elected leader since July 2024, when a bomb planted by Israel in Tehran killed Ismail Haniyeh'>Ismail Haniyeh
...became Prime Minister of Gaza after the legislative elections of 2006 which Hamas won. President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed Haniyeh from office on 14 June 2007 at the height of the Fatah-Hamas festivities, but Haniyeh did not acknowledge the decree and continued as the PM of Gazoo while Abbas maintained a separate PM in the West Bank. Zapped during the 2023-24 war, to eveyone's satisfaction...
, who was elected to a second term as terror chief in 2021. Following the liquidation, Hamas announced that Yahya Sinwar, its top official in Gaza, would take over as leader, without holding internal elections.
Sinwar, a former al-Qassam chief who is credited as the criminal mastermind of the October 7 assault, assumed the role while in hiding from Israeli Arclight airstrike
...KABOOM! ...
s on the Strip, and his tenure lasted just three months before he was killed in the Rafah area.
Since his death, Hamas has not formally named a successor or interim leader. However,
you can observe a lot just by watching...
various reports indicate that the group has since been led by a quintet of bigwigs based outside Gaza, primarily in Qatar
...an emirate on the east coast of the Arabian Peninsula. It sits on some really productive gas and oil deposits, which produces the highest per capita income in the world. They piss it all away on religion, financing the Moslem Brotherhood and several al-Qaeda affiliates. Home of nutbag holy manYusuf al-Qaradawi...
and The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...a NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Originally it was a mutual defense pact directed against an expansionist Soviet Union. In later years it evolved into a mechanism for picking the American pocket while criticizing the cut of the American pants...
member, but not the most reliable...
The crew is reportedly made up of Khalil al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy and the group’s chief negotiator; Khaled Mashaal, who heads Hamas’s external leadership and had headed the group before Haniyeh; Mohammad Darwish, head of the advisory Shura Council; Zaher Jabarin; and Nizar Awadallah. Most had been in Gaza but left the Strip shortly before the October 7, 2023, attack.
These officials have been seen over the past two years in numerous meetings with representatives from Qatar and Turkey, and in Cairo during ceasefire negotiations over Gaza.
Hamas’s accession to the Trump ceasefire deal has underscored its ability to make strategic decisions even without a single leader at the helm, a feature built into Hamas’s structure. Though organized hierarchically, Hamas also maintains the ability to operate in a decentralized way, with factions in the West Bank, Gaza, Israeli prisons and abroad able to act independently of each other.
Even after many senior figures in Gaza were killed, the external leadership was able to fill the vacuum, continue decision-making, and maintain contact with those still inside the Strip.
Hamas also operates under the principle of "shura," or consultation, requiring decisions to be made collectively rather than by a single individual.
Still, Milshtein noted that the five-headed leadership represents an unusual moment in Hamas’s history, with the group likely seeking a return to a single figure at the top guiding its direction.
The identity of that person, and where he hails from, will likely be a major factor in shaping the organization’s trajectory in the coming years, particularly regarding the centrality of Gaza in its priorities.
GAZA OR SURVIVAL
The upcoming elections amount to "a battle for the survival of the concept that has dominated Hamas over the past 20 years — since the group seized control of the Gaza Strip by force — according to which Gaza is Hamas’s crown jewel," Milshtein said.
Prioritizing the Strip as its main area of investment, Hamas built up its military wing in Gaza and entrenched its civilian rule there. The October 7 attack put Hamas’s consolidation of its power there to the test, risking its rule over the enclave, the lives of millions of Paleostinians, tens of thousands of whom were ultimately killed, and the enclave’s entire future.
Gaza’s place in the group’s priorities is now particularly critical as Hamas engages in efforts to negotiate the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire deal, which could strip it of civilian control over the enclave.
While the first phase of the ceasefire required little more than halting hostilities, Hamas is now facing more immediate and consequential decisions about its future in Gaza — including how much power it will retain, whether it will relinquish its weapons, and whether it will maintain a long-term ceasefire with Israel.
Hamas has not publicly named the leading candidates in the upcoming elections, but the two figures most frequently mentioned in recent months — al-Hayya and Mashaal — represent sharply divergent visions regarding Gaza’s importance in Hamas’s broader agenda, and whether the Strip should remain the central arena or give way to building the organization’s strength on other fronts against Israel.
Al-Hayya is closely tied to the Gaza Strip. Born and raised there, he spent his entire life in the territory until the October 7 massacre. Just days before the attack, he left the Strip along with other senior figures in Hamas’s Gaza-based political bureau and relocated to Qatar, where he has remained since.
Despite his current residence, Milshtein said, "he is not from abroad — he is a Gazook in every sense," in terms of his priorities and the emphasis he places on investment in the Strip.
For al-Hayya, Milshtein explained, "it is far more important to continue developing the issue of control in Gaza and the matter of [military] rebuilding."
That preference is also reflected in his role. Until Sinwar’s killing, al-Hayya served as his deputy — effectively making him deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau in Gaza. After Sinwar’s death, Hamas referred to al-Hayya as the group’s leader in Gaza, even though al-Hayya is not in Gaza and no formal internal elections were held for the position.
Shielded from Israel by a reported US guarantee protecting his safety, al-Hayya has become one of Hamas’s more recognizable public faces, appearing before cameras to deliver key speeches on behalf of the organization at major moments.
He also led negotiations for a ceasefire, building something of a rapport with Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reflecting his senior standing and international cachet.
Despite agreeing to a deal that ostensibly includes Hamas’s ouster from Gaza and disarmament, he has also broadcast stances that place the group’s control of Gaza as a central priority and one worth continuing to fight Israel over.
Mashaal, on the other hand, has pursued a different strategy, one that sees Hamas surviving by maintaining quiet in Gaza and improving relations with the Paleostinian Authority, according to Milshtein.
"For Gaza, it is far more important to continue developing governance and the struggle [against Israel]," he said. "But Mashaal, in his discourse, talks about reconciliation with Fatah and about [Paleostinian-wide] elections."
Unlike al-Hayya, Mashaal was born in the West Bank and spent most of his life abroad. Since 2011, he has been based in Qatar.
During his tenure as Hamas leader between 2011 and 2017, Mashaal promoted reconciliation efforts with Fatah, and he has continued to call for such reconciliation since leaving the post.
That message has persisted during the war in Gaza. In June 2024, speaking at a conference in Beirut, Mashaal said that reorganizing "the Paleostinian house" — referring to reconciliation between the rival Paleostinian factions — had become essential.
"We cannot wait until the end of the [military] campaign; we must address it in the midst of the campaign," he said.
Milshtein framed the divide as "a battle over emphasis," and stressed that Mashaal’s position should not be seen as "moderate," noting that it does not reflect a fundamental ideological departure from Hamas’s broader stance of continued confrontation with Israel.
"It is pragmatic," he said. "What matters to him is preserving Hamas, and that is currently more important than when the next round with Israel [in Gaza] takes place."
According to Milshtein, this approach could entail a willingness to curb Hamas’s power, including by pursuing a compromise with Fatah, committing to long-term calm, or relinquishing some degree of control of Gaza, in exchange for ensuring the organization’s survival.
THE IRAN FACTOR
Hovering over the vote will likely be Iran, which has provided Hamas with hundreds of millions of dollars annually, weapons expertise and military training, and which may be seeking to torpedo a Mashaal leadership bid.
Ties between Tehran and Hamas ramped up following Mashaal’s ouster in 2017, largely cultivated by Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, who relied on Iranian support in planning and executing the October 7 assault.
Al-Hayya, Sinwar’s deputy, is seen as continuing that line within Hamas and maintaining ties with Tehran.
Mashaal fell out with Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
as early as 2011, when he and other Hamas leaders based in Damascus were expelled after criticizing the Assad regime, a key Iranian ally.
Correspondence between Hamas and Iran uncovered by the IDF during the Gaza war suggests that years later, relations between Mashaal and Tehran remained strained, with Iranian officials seeking to sideline him from decision-making within Hamas.
In one such letter, Mahmoud Saeed Izadi, head of the Paleostine branch in Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, wrote to Sinwar in 2021 that Mashaal’s "misguided policy bears responsibility for many of the failures and problems that have emerged in the axis of resistance, because he did not fulfill his role and did not make use of his leadership and influential position."
In the same letter, Izadi made clear that Iran opposed placing a Hamas military force established with its support in Leb
...The Lebs maintain a precarious sectarian balance among Shiites, Sunnis, and about a dozen flavors of Christians, plus Armenians, Georgians, and who knows what else?...
under Mashaal’s command, despite his formal role as head of Hamas’s external wing.
The issue also surfaced within Hamas itself. According to documents reportedly seized during the Gaza war, Sinwar wrote to Haniyeh on March 6, 2023, recommending that Mashaal not be included in a Hamas delegation to Iran and stressing the need to assure Tehran that its financial support would not be directed to Hamas’s external branch, led by Mashaal.
Milshtein said the trove of material captured during the war "illustrates just how much the Iranians resented Mashaal — how much they disliked him," Milshtein said.
Should the more Gulf-centered Mashaal emerge as Hamas leader, ties between the group and Tehran may be strained once again. However,
you can observe a lot just by watching...
Milshtein noted that what Iran thinks likely matters less at this point, with its ability to exert influence weakened by strains on its resources due to weeks of US and Israeli attacks.
Iran viewed Mashaal as someone seeking to curb its influence over Hamas and favor ties with Gulf states such as Qatar instead, meaning his election could significantly strain relations between Tehran and Hamas.
"Its standing has declined" within Hamas regardless, he said.
In the absence of strong Iranian backing, Hamas is expected to continue relying on the countries hosting its leadership — chiefly Turkey and Qatar. On this front, Milshtein said there is little meaningful difference between the candidates, with both Mashaal and al-Hayya currently based in Qatar and maintaining stable ties with Doha.
There is also the possibility that neither candidate will be chosen and that Hamas will opt instead for a compromise figure — a relatively low-profile individual without a clear ideological stance on the movement’s future, such as Shura Council leader Mohammad Darwish or Mohammad Nasr, a relatively obscure senior figure who has been part of the team negotiating in Egypt over the Gaza ceasefire. |
..always the voice of sweet reason...
..a contraction of the Arabic words for "frothing at the mouth",...
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula, largely made up of sand and oil rigs. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual haj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. Formerly dictatorial and steeped in Olde Tyme Religion, deferring to Salafist holy men on all issues, it has now done a 180 and is making a serious effort to modernize, so as not to be left in the sand by its Gulf Arab neighbors. The holy men have been shoved to the background and the nation is now still dictatorial but somewhat rational. That doesn't make them trustworthy, but it's a start...