Recent Appearances...

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Recent Appearances...

Afghanistan

The removal of the Taliban from the list of terrorists does not suit everyone

2024-12-14

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semenov

[REGNUM] At a meeting on Tuesday, December 10, the State Duma adopted in the first reading a bill that provides for the possibility of excluding the Taliban movement (an organization under UN sanctions for terrorist activity) from the list of organizations banned in Russia.

The authors of the draft law (No. 778 284-8) were a group of parliamentarians, including senators Andrei Klishas, Andrei Yatskin and Yuri Fedorov, as well as deputies Vasily Piskarev, Andrei Lugovoy and Dmitry Vyalkin.

According to the draft law, “the ban on the activities of an organization included in the single federal list of organizations, including foreign and international organizations recognized as terrorist in accordance with Russian legislation, may be temporarily suspended by a decision of a Russian court based on an application by the Prosecutor General of the Russian Federation or his deputy, if there is factual information that such an organization, after being included in the said list, has ceased carrying out activities aimed at promoting, justifying and supporting terrorism.”

Earlier, on November 25, the Afghan portal "Alemara" reported on the negotiations between the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu in Afghanistan with the Afghan Deputy Prime Minister Abdul Ghani Baradar Akhund. Shoigu emphasized Russia's readiness to develop bilateral cooperation with Afghanistan, pointing to plans to exclude the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) from Russia's blacklist in order to strengthen political and economic ties.

Akhund, who oversees economic issues in the Taliban-formed government, noted that Afghanistan intends to “play a key role in strengthening the North-South Economic Corridor, as well as economic ties in the region.”

At the moment, it has become obvious that all concerns about the hypothetical expansion of the Taliban into neighboring countries have remained at the level of conjecture and speculation. The Taliban movement has demonstrated in practice that it intends to build good-neighborly relations with all its neighbors.

In addition, the Taliban have demonstrated that they are willing to take into account the interests of the minorities living in the country. This is especially noticeable with regard to the local Shia Hazaras, who have been given the opportunity to openly practice their version of Islam, build mosques and hold holidays, including in Kabul, while representatives of the Hazaras have received various positions in the IEA administration.

For Moscow, the positive attitude of the Afghan government towards Russia itself and its approaches to international affairs, including its approach to the CIS, certainly plays a role.

Afghans look with hope at the confrontation between Russia and the collective West, with the hope that Russia “ will be able to withstand this onslaught, this pressure, and will be able to achieve a revision of this unipolar world order.”

Therefore, it can be said that the Taliban have passed the probationary period that Moscow set for them regarding their exclusion from the terrorist lists.

The Taliban's continued "terrorist" status has slowed down the development of bilateral contacts between Moscow and Kabul. This has an impact on trade relations and makes it difficult for entrepreneurs who want to do business with Afghanistan to do so, due to concerns, even if hypothetical, of being prosecuted for justifying or financing terrorism.

ATTACK ON HAQQANI AMID RUSSIAN INITIATIVES
However, it is obvious that the prospect of removing the Taliban from the terrorist list and their rapprochement with Russia does not suit everyone.

This also applies to external forces hostile to Afghanistan and Russia, which have tried to show that the IAE's merits in the fight against terrorism are exaggerated, and that the Taliban are not fulfilling their obligations to suppress the activities of the ISIS (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation) Khorasan Velayat (ISIS-Kh) (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation).

It was precisely the achievements in the fight against this cell that were noted as an important indicator that the Taliban itself is not a terrorist force, but rather a counter-terrorist force.

But on Wednesday, the day after the Duma vote, a suicide bombing in Kabul killed Khalil Haqqani, the Taliban's acting minister for refugees and repatriation. He was a high-ranking member of the influential Haqqani family.

The incident marked the first killing of a serving minister since the Taliban returned to power in Kabul in August 2021. Experts say the attack is a "declaration of war" by ISIS-K against the Haqqani family, but both external and internal opponents may be behind it.

This attack on the Haqqani family, against the backdrop of Russian initiatives, can also be seen as a challenge to the reformist wing of the Taliban led by this clan, which is behind many of the initiatives to get closer to Moscow.

The family's most influential representative, Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, also held talks with Sergei Shoigu at the end of November.

Initially the most radical in the Taliban movement in matters of war and resorting to prohibited methods of waging it, Haqqani after its end turned out to be the most moderate in terms of state-building. It is with him that hopes are associated for a change in the internal policy of the Taliban.

It was Haqqani who was behind the amnesty of many members of the previous administration and tried to prevent reprisals.

His supporters also opposed the ban on female education.

In fact, because of Haqqani's position, a compromise system has essentially emerged in the country, where the so-called "Kandahar clique" from Emir Akhunzada's entourage is pushing forward more and more restrictive laws, but which, due to Haqqani's opposition to them, end up not being laws, but rather some kind of non-binding recommendations. Or loopholes appear in each of them, as in the issues of female education and employment, when in fact women can study in private schools for a fee or in religious schools for free, but the latter also provide for secular education.

Finally, the Haqqanists, unlike the Kandaharis, adhere to a more global agenda and, as noted by Russian observers who have been in contact with them, “like to talk” about multipolarity, which is why they more openly express their hopes for Russia’s success in the SVO.

SUCCESSES IN THE FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM
However, despite the ongoing terrorist attacks, the Taliban's success in the fight against terrorism is hard to doubt. In fact, this became an important factor in the recognition of the Taliban and the removal of terrorist labels from the movement.

It is significant that the Americans, who spent 20 years trying to eradicate Osama bin Laden's brainchild in Afghanistan, were forced to acknowledge this success. But as soon as they left, the Taliban themselves solved this problem.

In particular, as Christie Abizaid, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, stated on September 11, 2023, is in its historical decline in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and its revival is unlikely.”

The Taliban, despite the ongoing terrorist threat and isolated attacks, have been able to suppress ISIS-K activity in Afghanistan. After a significant increase in its activity due to the security vacuum created in parts of the country by the US withdrawal, the Taliban have changed this dynamic by denying the terrorists control over certain territories they were able to acquire by following the Americans fleeing the country.

Their activities were hit and their activity significantly reduced, which was noted in the relevant reports of international structures.

It is emphasized that the Taliban were able to conduct a successful campaign against ISIS-K and eliminated most of the sleeper cells that were ready to continue terrorist attacks in Afghan cities. After a surge in terrorist attacks in the first months after the Taliban came to power, their number is beginning to decline as a result of counter-terrorism measures by the IEA security structures.

In particular, in 2022–2023, the number of terrorist attacks and other attacks by ISIS-K has significantly decreased. If in the first year of the Taliban rule (2021–2022) there were 314 attacks and assaults, then in 2022–2023 there were only 69, that is, fewer than during any period of the group’s activity in Afghanistan since its emergence.

The Taliban's fight against ISIS is systemic and consistent, Khorasan itself is turning into a virtual province, and its connection with Afghanistan and the territory of Greater Khorasan is becoming more conditional, as stated in the UN report of January 2024.

As ISIS* researcher Aaron Zelin notes : “ Unlike most past cases of jihadist external operations, where basing was critical, a paradox occurred in which the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate effectively undermined much of the local capacity of the Khorasan Province in Afghanistan.”

At the same time, the main threat of ISIS-K now comes not from Afghans, but from citizens of Tajikistan. Rather, the reverse process of Tajiks moving to Afghanistan to participate in terrorist activities there is observed. Other citizens of the republic are drawn into ISIS-K activities through its cells in Iran and Turkey.

FIGHT AGAINST DRUG TRAFFICKING
Countering drug trafficking is another area where the Taliban have demonstrated success in their activities, which has also become an argument for removing the terrorist label from the movement.

The Taliban have already imposed a total ban on drug production and use in Afghanistan. They continue their campaign against the illegal drug industry, arresting drug addicts and drug dealers, and destroying opium poppy and cannabis fields. This has already led to a significant drop in production, but it also has a downside, hitting poor rural residents particularly hard.

In particular, the UN estimates that the cessation of opium poppy cultivation has affected the lives of almost seven million people.

According to a 2023 UN report, poppy cultivation in southern Afghanistan has declined by more than 80% as a result of Taliban campaigns to stop its use in opium production. For example, poppy cultivation in Helmand province has declined by 99%.

In November 2023, a UN report showed that poppy cultivation had declined by more than 95% across Afghanistan, stripping the country of its status as the world's largest opium producer.

Many farmers have switched to growing wheat or cotton, but they struggle to make ends meet. Developing agriculture will require more irrigation systems, cold storage facilities, and better roads. The Taliban does not have the budget to develop such infrastructure. Perhaps establishing economic ties with neighbors after sanctions are lifted will help to partially solve this problem.

Overall, the Taliban have managed to stabilize the economy somewhat. Afghanistan's foreign trade has fallen since they seized power. However, despite the decline in imports, most of the country's income now comes from taxes.

As experts note, the Afghan economy is no longer in a state of free fall and appears to be frozen in a precarious equilibrium, albeit at its lowest level.

Modest positive trends include lower inflation, exchange rate stability, some recovery in imports, more than a doubling of exports, stability or a slight increase in labor demand, and stable wages.

Link

Afghanistan

WHO confirms 85 polio cases in Afghanistan this year

2024-10-31

[KhaamaPress] The World Health Organization (WHO) has reported a new environmental case of polio
...Poliomyelitis is a disease caused by infection with the poliovirus. Between 1840 and the 1950s, polio was a worldwide epidemic. Since the development of polio vaccines the disease has been largely wiped out in the civilized world. However, since the vaccine is known to make Moslem pee-pees shrink and renders females sterile, bookish, and unsubmissive it is not widely used by the turban and automatic weapons set. Currently the disease is only found in Pakistain and Afghanistain...
in Helmand
...an Afghan province populated mostly by Pashtuns, adjacent to Injun country in Pak Balochistan...
province, Afghanistan.

According to the WHO’s latest report, the new polio sample was identified in Lashkargah, the capital of Helmand province.

With this new case, the number of positive environmental polio cases in Afghanistan this year has increased to 85.

Notably, at least three cases of polio were detected alone in October in the provinces of Kandahar and Helmand.

The polio virus has been eradicated globally, except in Afghanistan and Pakistain.

Currently, Pakistain has the highest number of recorded polio cases.

The increasing number of polio cases in Afghanistan highlights the urgent need for effective vaccination campaigns, which face mounting challenges due to the restrictions imposed by the Taliban
Taliban

...Arabic for students...
Women healthcare workers, who are crucial to the success of these campaigns, face significant limitations and increasing pressure in the country.

The recent restrictions on female employees have significantly hindered efforts to reach vulnerable populations, particularly children.

The international community continues to urge the Taliban to lift these barriers to ensure successful polio eradication and safeguard the health of future generations in Afghanistan.

Link

Afghanistan

'The people who control the country.' How Afghanistan has changed under the Taliban

2024-05-31

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Kirill Semeov

Russia is determined to normalize relations, and will say anything to do so. Count up the fictions as you read, dearReader.

[REGNUM] The problems of Afghanistan are known, but the real power there lies with the Taliban movement and this cannot be ignored, Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the press following his visit to Uzbekistan on May 28.

“There are problems in Afghanistan, they are undeniable, everyone is well aware of them. The question of how to build relationships with the current government is another question. But we have to build it somehow, these are the people who control the country, control the territory of the country. They are the power in Afghanistan today,” the Russian President said.

A day earlier, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also made it clear that Russia is going to remove the Taliban from the list of terrorists, on which it is still included.

“Kazakhstan recently made a decision, which we are also going to make, to remove them from the list of terrorist organizations. Moreover, the UN Security Council did not declare the Taliban as a terrorist organization.

It only takes one veto, or the threat of one.

There are, in my opinion, 12–15 specific characters on the list of terrorists,” Lavrov told reporters.

Initially, the Taliban came under international sanctions and were included in terrorist lists not so much because of their own actions, but because of their support for other terrorist organizations. For example, Al-Qaeda, whose representatives received asylum in Afghanistan.

Al Qaeda is still there, as are all their little buddies. And ISIS-K is one of the leading exporters of jihad among the ISIS franchises. Some of these have connections, and have been causing trouble, in Russia.

Of course, the Taliban was and remains a fundamentalist movement, but both now and during the period of the first Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA - the Taliban state) distanced itself from obvious terrorist activities.

The Taliban, unlike Al-Qaeda and ISIS, have never advocated the dismantling of the world order and “global jihad.”

But they support — and intermarry with — those who do. Tomaytoes, tomahtoes.

During their first statehood in the 1990s, they maintained diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Pakistan. Neighboring Turkmenistan was then close to recognizing them.

At the moment, it has also become obvious that all concerns about the hypothetical expansion of the Taliban into neighboring countries have remained at the level of speculation and speculation. The Taliban movement has demonstrated in practice that it intends to build good neighborly relations with all its neighbors.

They’e still at the consolidation phase, and can’t afford external wars as well as the internal ones.

For Moscow, of course, the positive attitude of the Afghan authorities towards Russia itself and its approaches to international affairs also plays a role.

As political scientist and orientalist Mir-Ali Askerov, who recently returned from Afghanistan, told IA Regnum, “there has never been a situation in which, when you say that you are from Russia, it causes some kind of negativity, that is, it either causes at least something neutral, positive, or strictly positive attitude. The Afghans express their gratitude for the fact that you visited their country and, in general, offer their help there in every possible way.”

I assume Mr. Askerov is male.

Askerov emphasized that Afghans look with hope at the confrontation between Russia and the collective West, with the hope that Russia “will be able to withstand this onslaught, this pressure and will be able to achieve a revision of this monopolar world order.”

No doubt.

YOU CAN WALK AT NIGHT
As Russian officials have rightly noted, the Taliban are making good progress in nation-building.

Although the country has serious economic problems and terrorist groups continue to operate, the risk of political and economic collapse is assessed as minimal, and the country has also managed to overcome crime and make the lives of citizens safer.

According to Askerov, the crime situation has become much better than during the reign of Ashraf Ghani and the Americans, and during that period he also had the opportunity to visit Afghanistan.

“ You can now walk around Kabul at night, during the day, at any time of the day and in any area, it is absolutely safe. The only problem is pickpockets, but this is only a problem of large markets,” said the orientalist.

Again, Mr. Askerov is not female.

At the same time, security is ensured in a much “softer” way than during the American occupation.

“Of course, there are many guards and checkpoints in the city, but they do not create the impression of a police state, as during the American presence with rough searches and searches of everyone. On the streets you can also see employees of the ministry of “commanding what is good and prohibiting what is bad” (morality police), but they act unobtrusively, politely and rather try to explain or explain something rather than prohibit and detain, so this does not cause any rejection or conflicts,” Askerov noted.

No, no, perish the thought.

At the same time, he said, some problems remain, despite the optimism of Afghans:

“The population perceives current changes positively and looks to the future with hope. But, of course, Afghans live poorly, and even the wealthiest live very modestly by our standards; economic problems have not gone away.”

Nevertheless, the Taliban still managed to somewhat stabilize the economy.

Afghanistan's foreign trade fell after they seized power. However, despite the decline in imports, most of the country's income now comes from taxes.

As experts note, the Afghan economy is no longer in a state of free fall and appears to be frozen in a precarious balance, albeit at the lowest level.

Modest positive trends include lower inflation, exchange rate stability, some recovery in imports, a more than doubling of exports,

…opium and heroin, right?

stable or slightly increased labor demand and continued wage levels.

Of course, the problem of Afghan drug trafficking remains.

Opium and heroin, yes.

However, it arose long before the Taliban came to power and was “chronic” for this country.

The Taliban took control of it during their first tenure, and never let go.

Nevertheless, the IEA leadership is making efforts to limit the production of opiates.

Thus, according to a 2023 UN report, poppy cultivation in southern Afghanistan fell by more than 80% as a result of Taliban campaigns to stop its use in opium production. For example, the decline in poppy cultivation in Helmand province has dropped by 99%.

In November 2023, a UN report found that throughout Afghanistan, poppy cultivation had fallen by more than 95%, depriving the country of its status as the world's largest opium producer.

The warehouses were full to bursting. No point in producing more until that supply is used up and the price increases.

Although Iran does not agree with such optimistic assessments, since, according to Iranian officials, supplies of opium and heroin from Afghanistan to their country continued in large volumes.

See?

The Taliban have also made progress in dialogue and taking into account the interests of ethno-confessional minorities living in the country, primarily the Shiite Hazaras, who were able to gain access to some leadership positions, which may indicate the movement’s readiness to follow the path of forming an inclusive government.

Tokens to shut up the rubes.

However, problems remain with the Uzbek and Tajik minorities, who are dissatisfied with the fact that their representatives, not associated with the Taliban, are still not represented in the IEA power structures.

"RED TROOPS"
An important factor in recognizing the Taliban and removing terrorist labels from the movement is its success in suppressing the activity and presence of international terrorist organizations such as ISIS and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

It is significant that the Americans, who spent 20 years trying to eradicate the brainchild of Osama bin Laden in Afghanistan, were forced to recognize this success. But as soon as they left, the Taliban themselves solved this problem.

In particular, as Christy Abizaid, director of the US National Counterterrorism Center, stated on September 11, 2023, "al-Qaeda is in its historic decline in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its resurgence is unlikely."

She also cited declassified data that the group had "lost access to targets, leadership talent, group cohesion, grassroots commitment, and supportive local environment." She said the terrorist organization's ability to threaten from Afghanistan " is at its lowest level" since it moved there in 1998.

The Taliban were also able to suppress the activity of ISIS and its local affiliate ISIS-K in Afghanistan.

Within Afghanistan, anyway. Or perhaps just reports of their activities. But not abroad.

After a significant increase in their activity, due to the security vacuum created in some parts of the country after the US withdrawal, the Taliban changed this dynamic, depriving the terrorists of control over certain territories that they were able to acquire by following the Americans fleeing the country.

Their activities were dealt a blow, and activity over the past year has decreased significantly, which was noted in the relevant reports of international structures.

It is noted that the Taliban were able to conduct a successful campaign against ISIS-X and eliminated most of the sleeper cells that were ready to continue terrorist attacks in Afghan cities. After a surge in the number of terrorist attacks in the first months after the Taliban came to power, their number begins to decline as a result of counter-terrorism measures by the IEA security structures.

In particular, in 2022–2023. the number of terrorist attacks and other attacks by ISIS-X has decreased significantly. If in the first year of Taliban rule (2021-2022) there were 314 attacks and assaults, then in 2022-2023. only 69 - that is, less than during any period of activity of the group in Afghanistan since its inception.

The Taliban’s fight against ISIS is systematic and consistent; for this purpose, special counter-terrorism forces have been created in Afghanistan that can effectively counter it.

This counter-terrorism unit is called "Red Squad", or "Sara Kheta" in Pashto.

... also known as Red Unit, Red Brigade, Blood Unit, Danger Group, and Taliban Special Forces Unit. The Taliban’s special forces/shock troops unit was first deployed in Sangin town in Helmand province in 2016, then claimed a victory against ISIS-Khurasan in 2018. They were most active in Kunduz, Baghlan, and Faryab Provinces.

It is divided into several battalions of 300–350 men, selected by field commanders from among the fighters based on their discipline, dedication and skills. Each battalion operates in a separate province, but within the Red Squad there is also a battalion-sized group of the most trained elite forces known as Badri 313.

The Badri 313 Battalion was trained by the Haqqani network and based at Salahaddin Ayyubi Military Operations Academy. There is evidence it was at one point al Qaeda's military arm in Pakistan, with members gleaned from the Taliban and Pakistan’s pet jihadi groups including Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Jundallah, used for nasty attacks on the Pakistani army under the leadership of Ilyas Kashmiri (until 2011) followed by Shah Sahib.

In emergency situations, units work together to cover a multi-province area.

It was the “Red Detachments” that defeated the ISIS in the province of Nangarhar, which was a stronghold of terrorists. After which part of the “Red Detachment” battalions was transferred to the province of Kunar, which was soon also cleared of ISIS militants.

Of course, it is too early to talk about a complete victory over ISIS in Afghanistan.

But a significant decrease in terrorist activity allows the Taliban movement to establish economic ties with foreign partners and organize business trips to this country.

Therefore, Russia, acting proactively, can economically enter Afghanistan before others, officially recognizing the Taliban movement as the legitimate Afghan government.

Before this, there were many factors that forced our entrepreneurs to act with caution in Afghanistan, including the fear of persecution for justifying and financing terrorism.

By removing the Taliban from the terrorist lists, Moscow can speed up the implementation of economic projects in Afghanistan and begin absolutely legal, not “gray” investments.

Link

Afghanistan

Water under the bridge as Iran, Taliban seek dam deal - analysis

2023-06-19

[Jpost] Iran and Afghanistan are locked in a dispute over the Helmand River. This river flows from an area in the mountains near Kabul some 700 miles until it reaches wetlands in Iran’s southeast.

Iran’s special envoy to Afghanistan Hassan Kazemi Qomi said over the weekend that the Taliban are willing to be more flexible regarding Iran wanting access to the Kajaki Dam. This agreement would allow Iranian experts access to inspect, Iran’s Tehran Times and Fars News reported. Tasnim News said that the Taliban had given “consent to dam supply check.”

The dam was built in the 1950s and is located on the Helmand River in the Kajaki district of the eponymous province. It has a hydroelectric power station. The Helmand province is known for opium cultivation, among other things, but recent reports say that the Taliban’s war on drugs has reduced production.

ADDRESSING WATER TENSIONS BETWEEN IRAN AND AFGHANISTAN
Iran believes that this is a good first step to address the tensions with Afghanistan, as it acknowledges that there is a lack of water coming from there. According to Iranian pro-regime media, Iran and Afghanistan are locked in a dispute over the Helmand River, which flows from an area in the mountains near Kabul some 700 miles until it reaches wetlands in Iran’s southeastern Sistan-Baluchestan province.

A picture of the Kajaki Dam and Spillway taken from an MI8 Helicopter coming in to land during the autumn of 2013. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

A picture of the Kajaki Dam and Spillway taken from an MI8 Helicopter coming in to land during the autumn of 2013. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)

A treaty that dates back to 1973, when the shah was still in power in Iran, and before the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, was signed between the two countries. It guarantees that Iran would receive some 820 million cubic meters of water annually.

By contrast, according to the 1962 agreement about dividing water from the Lower Basin of the Colorado River in the US, Nevada receives 370 million cubic meters (300,000 acre-feet), compared to California and Arizona, which receive much more water from the agreement. The dispute between these states amid water shortages in the last several years is not exactly similar to the Taliban-Iran dispute, but it has similarities in terms of water scarcity.

Iran and the Taliban seek to put their water problems behind them and work on a sustainable future. “We are two neighboring countries with a long common border, and have religious commonalities, an ancient relationship between the governments, the civilization field, from the point of view Afghanistan’s economy and trade is a good trade market in the field of our exports, as a market, we must count on it and pay attention to it, and we must create structures and laws appropriate to the development of commercial and economic relations, among the countries that we export to, among the first countries,” said the Iranian envoy.

Tensions flared with the Taliban in the last months over the dam dispute. According to the Tehran Times report, “Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi issued a warning to the Taliban leaders in May that they would be held accountable if they failed to deliver the province of Sistan-Baluchestan in southeast Iran with its fair share of water from the river.” Iran has demanded that Afghanistan enable Iranian specialists to observe the situation at the Kajakai Dam.

Now, the Taliban officials said this is all water under the bridge, as it were, and they are “committed to Iran’s rights to the Helmand River.” Both now say they are seeking to repair relations.

Link

Afghanistan

On the Iranian-Afghan border

2023-05-29

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.

Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:

Regarding the next border clashes on the border of Iran and Afghanistan. A few important things to understand.

1. Border incidents on the border there have been occurring periodically since the time of the occupation of Afghanistan by the American occupiers. That did not prevent the Iranians from supplying weapons to the Taliban to kill Americans.

In particular, it was from the territory under the control of the Taliban that an Iranian missile was launched that hit the CIA air command post in 2020. In the current iteration, the conflict is formally linked to unresolved disputes over the water supply of border areas.

2. Control (including tacit control) over border checkpoints is important - the annual turnover of such checkpoints can be more than 1 billion dollars a year - therefore, in conflicts around checkpoints, in addition to state, there are also commercial and criminal interests on both sides.

3. Taliban factions in Helmand province seek to increase their autonomy from the government in Kabul. As has been pointed out more than once, the Taliban is very heterogeneous inside - it is not a monolithic structure, it has many large and small fractions - from moderate to stoned.

4. Helmand is one of the leading provinces in the cultivation of raw materials for the production of heroin. In the first half of the 10s, Helmand produced just under half of the world's opium poppy.

5. There are many interested players who would like to destroy the course of international legitimization of the government in Kabul and the reduction of heroin production in Afghanistan. Prolonging the conflict on the border with Iran will make it difficult for the Taliban to achieve their strategic goals in relations with China and Russia.

6. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that after a period of aggravation, the central government in Kabul will put on the brakes. Kabul has not yet declared any war, a representative of one of the factions is just routinely threatening jihad, if it starts at all - he himself does not have the opportunity to declare jihad.

Objectively, neither the Taliban nor Iran will be able to derive any serious benefit from this conflict. Such a conflict is beneficial to the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia and heroin producers in Helmand province.

Link

Afghanistan

Taliban Authorities Flog 16 People for Alleged Crimes in Helmand

2023-02-04

[KhaamaPress] Taliban
...mindless ferocity in a turban...
Supreme Court

...the political football known as The Highest Court in the Land, home of penumbrae and emanations...
has announced that at least 16 people alleged of different crimes have been flogged in public in southern Helmand
...an Afghan province populated mostly by Pashtuns, adjacent to Injun country in Pak Balochistan...
Province on Thursday.

The alleged individuals accused of different crimes have been lashed in public in the Grishk district of southern Helmand province earlier today, according to the announcement made by the Taliban’s supreme court.

The United Nations
...an idea whose time has gone...
have described lashing Afghan men and women as a "cruel act", and called on the Islamic emirate authorities of Afghanistan to respect human rights
One man's rights are another man's existential threat.
and values under all circumstances.

Public punishment includes flogging, stoning, and public execution, being widely exercised by Taliban officials across the country in the recent past, drawing massive criticism from the international community.

Taliban Supreme leader Hibatullah Akhundzada issued a series of decrees last November, legitimizing some strict practices which are not in line with the contemporary lifestyle of the people. Barring Afghan girls from getting secondary and higher education are clear examples, which sparked serious demonstrations in some parts of Afghanistan.

The Islamic Emirate authorities publicly shot an alleged person to death in front of a huge crowd in western Farah province on December 7, where high-ranking Taliban officials had participated to see the shooting.

Following the shooting, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) in Kabul urged the Taliban authorities to stop the death penalty

immediately. ~~Amnesia~~ Amnesty International also called the Taliban’s execution "cruel, inhuman and humiliating". However,
it was a brave man who first ate an oyster...
the Taliban regime continues practicing the rather harsh version of Islamic Sharia laws by re-introducing public execution in Afghanistan after more than two decades.

Link

Afghanistan

Daily Evacuation Brief September 23, 2022: Claim 5-7 Talib mil big turbans toes up in Panjshir

2022-09-23

[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

MULTIPLE TALIBAN COMMANDERS KILLED — A Farsi journalism outlet, Independent Farsi, claims to have confirmed that 7 of the Taliban’s most capable military commanders have been killed in the recent fighting in Panjshir. While the Afghan Digest has not yet confirmed the deaths of all of those listed in the report, we do have confirmation for 5.

UULULULULULULULULU!!!
Those reportedly killed were:

Mullah Qayum Zakir, Special Military Commander for Panjshir (unconfirmed; mixed reporting)

Mullah Haroon, Deputy Special Military Commander for Panjshir

Hanzala Helmandi, Commander of Helmand Commandos

Qari Nasir Ahmad, Senior Officer of Badri Unit

Naser Kochi, Deputy Commander of Laser Unit

Mullah Shirin, Commander of Kandahar Forces

Mawlawi Nikmal Jani, Commander of Badri Unit (unconfirmed)

HEIST AT TALIBAN MINISTER’S RESIDENCE — A brazen break-in occurred at the Taliban Finance Minister’s residence in Helmand province, and the thieves stole $800,000. The Minister has reputedly ordered the arrest of nearly 30 people, including his nephew.

PASSPORT ARRESTS CONFIRMED — The Afghan Digest received confirmation of previous reporting about arrests related to the Passport Directorate. Sources indicate that those arrested are employees of the Directorate and had been caught up in a sting operation for selling black market passports to an undercover Taliban agent. The three took $5,000.00 from the agent for five passports. Sources in the Ministry of the Interior claim this is only the start of the investigation and that many future arrests are anticipated. The source said the Ministry was working with regional governments to identify black market channels for visa procurement as well.

TALIBAN ARREST TTP MILITANTS — A source in the Ministry of Defense claims that Taliban forces have detained several TTP (Pakistani Taliban) militants who were in Nangarhar and relocated them to an undisclosed location. Pro-TTP social media sites have been criticizing the move over the last 12 hours.

IRAN PROTESTS RISK BORDER CLOSURE — The death of Mahsa Amini has sparked a nationwide series of protests across Iran over the last few days. Women have removed and burned their hijabs in defiance of the Iranian regime, spurring a violent crackdown by Iranian security forces. It is believed that some deaths have occurred in clashes between police and protestors. Iran is threatening to cut access to the internet in an attempt to calm the situation. The border with Iran remains open, but if the domestic crisis deepens, the government may order them closed.

CONFLICT TRACKER
Badghis: Talib commander Abdul Azir and his son were assassinated by unknown gunmen in Qalanu city.
Bamyan: The senior intelligence officer for Sighan was reportedly assassinated along with one bodyguard by unknown assailants in an ambush.
Kabul: An explosion in the Khair Khana neighbourhood of Kabul is said to have targetted a Taliban checkpoint (PD 17). The number of casualties is as yet unknown, nor has any group claimed credit for the attack.
Panjshir: Talib commander a Mullah Noor Mohammad was killed in an undisclosed location during a clash withNRF forces.

NEXT 24 HOURS
IRAN BORDER SECURITY DOUBLES — A source in Kandahar states that Iranian border security forces have been doubled over the past two days. Reinforcements have arrived in vehicles with markings indicating they are likely used by the Quds forces, Iran’s special force branch. The source stated that senior Taliban leadership are perplexed by the development.

Link

Afghanistan

Daily Evacuation Brief: August 20, 2022

2022-08-21

[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS

The Taliban’s Director of Culture in Helmand province issued a warning about posting on social media using Afghanistan’s tri-color flag. He claimed the government would take screenshots of offenders and that action will be taken. The warning was prompted by the celebration of Afghan Independence Day.

Taliban reprisals against non-combatants in Panjshir are being widely reported across multiple Resistance-affiliated organizations. Many arrests have been made, and the charges given are typically related to providing support to the NRF. Residents of some villages have been told to vacate their homes and leave their districts. Violence has also been reported, but there is not enough information available yet to speculate.

Persistent reports continue to arrive about the Taliban possibly having arrested an American filmmaker in Kabul. According to the rumors, American independent filmmaker Ivor Shearer and Afghan producer Faizullah Faizbakhsh were arrested on Wednesday while filming near the location where the former al-Qaeda leader was killed in a drone strike. They were accused of being American spies by Taliban standing guard, then detained and blindfolded by about 50 armed Taliban intelligence operatives. No further information was available.

Reports from the impromptu conference in Kandahar suggest that Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada was recorded declaring war against the United States and its allies. We are awaiting verification of the video/audio recordings.

Taliban reinforcements began arriving in several locations across Panjshir. A source stated that the size of the force is approximately 400 fighters. Additionally, security elements dispatched from Kabul to Kandahar arrived and were deployed around the city.

CONFLICT TRACKER:
Baghlan: NRF vs Taliban in Pul-e-Hesar district killed 10 Talibs plus 8 maimed
Takhar: NRF vs Taliban in Rustaq district killed Talib intelligence officer Qari Sibghat and 3 turbans
Badakhshan: 3 killed, 1 maimed, Chinese security forces seen

Link

Terror Networks

How UK spies watched from Harrogate as the 9/11 Al-Qaeda chief responsible for the deaths of nearly 3,000 people was executed by a 6-bladed Ninja missile

2022-08-03

[Daily Mail, where America gets its news] Photos and lots of useful illustrations in the helpful Daily Mail way.

The CIA announced they executed Ayman al-Zawahiri, 71, in a drone strike on July 31 as stood on his balcony

Intelligence services monitored him for months, including British experts based in Harrogate, North Yorkshire

al-Zawahiri took over terrorist group Al-Qaeda after Osama bin Laden was executed by US military in 2011

He is believed to have been the last surviving of the eight masterminds of the September 11 terror attacks

It was 6.18am on Sunday, more than an hour after dawn prayers, when the Supreme Leader of Al Qaeda appeared on the balcony of his safe house to enjoy a little sunshine and fresh air.

For Ayman al-Zawahiri, one of the masterminds of the 9/11 terror attacks, watching mornings unfold in the centre of the Afghan capital from his supposedly secure perch had become one of the few regular pleasures of his life in hiding.

He wasn’t to know that his balcony was anything but safe and that Taliban spies in the pay of the Americans and the British had been monitoring him for months – their knowledge of his whereabouts so detailed that a scale model of his hideaway had sat on a table in President Biden’s White House office for weeks.

And they were watching him again now, not only from Washington but also from a listening station in – of all places – Harrogate, North Yorkshire, after a Western-recruited intelligence source spotted him on the balcony.

According to a senior Taliban official, Zawahiri – who took over Al Qaeda after the US killed Osama bin Laden – had never left the country. After he became one of the world’s most wanted men in September 2001 and a US-led invasion expelled the Taliban that year, Zawahiri spent most of his time in the remote mountains of Musa Qala in the southern Helmand province.

He kept a low profile, said the Taliban leader, although he crossed into Pakistan’s border regions several times. The founders of Islamic State reportedly sought an alliance with the destroyers of the World Trade Centre but, unimpressed by Zawahiri’s cautious leadership, changed their minds.

According to intelligence insiders, just as Bin Laden’s whereabouts were revealed by following his courier, so Zawahiri’s family gave away his location.

While Zawahiri had been obsessed with personal security, the return to power of the Taliban opened new possibilities.

British security sources reportedly also became aware around April that Zawahiri’s family had moved from Helmand to Kabul.

The terror leader married four times and had seven children, although at least four of them had died along with his first wife Azza.

He was living with only one wife and a daughter when – under the protection of the Haqqani Network, a militant and ultra-violent faction considered to a semi-independent offshoot of the Taliban – he moved into a high-walled compound in Sherpur, a relatively affluent part of central Kabul.

The house reportedly belongs to an aide to Haqqani leader Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s interior minister. Sherpur, once the diplomatic quarter, is now home to senior Taliban officials, who may have not been aware of his arrival.

US intelligence insiders say they discovered the location and identified those inside through various sources, including – the Mail has learnt – personnel inside the Taliban recruited by British spies who provided significant elements of the information used to plan and execute the mission.

US officials waited some 36 hours before announcing they had killed Zawahiri, a period during which they observed the Haqqani Network and Taliban troops restrict access to the safe house and relocate the tar - get’s family. US officials believe the Taliban was trying to hide the fact that they harboured Zawahiri.

The revelation that the Taliban was harbouring the Al Qaeda leader is likely to fuel demands for sanctions. Meanwhile, a furious hunt is under way for those who tipped off British and US intelligence officials, with suspects having their mobile phones and laptops seized.

The insider added: ‘They had people inside the Taliban whose cooperation made the mission possible.’

Update from Garowe at 1:10 p.m. EDT, which also has a nice photo of what is claimed to be the house where Dr. Al Zawahiri kissed a missile, adding:

Hellfire missiles are air-to-surface missiles initially designed for anti-armor strikes, but later versions have been used for precision dronezaps. The arms manufacturer Lockheed Martin developed the missiles with the name "Heliborne, Laser, Fire, and Forget Missile," which evolved into the Hellfire missile, as it is now known, CBS further reported.

The R9X variant was initially deployed in secret in 2017, according to a U.S. Army equipment guide, and was used to kill Abu Khayr al-Masri, a member of al Qaeda's leadership. Photos of the aftermath on social media showed the car where al-Masri was purportedly killed as having damage to the passenger compartment of the beige Kia sedan but no damage to the engine block. The roof was blown open on the right side of the vehicle.

There were unconfirmed reports that al Qaeda deputy leader Abdullah Muhammad Rajab Abdulrahman, aka Abu al-Khayr al-Masri, was killed in the strike.

The Hellfire variant became public knowledge after it was used in 2019 to take out Jamal Ahmad Mohammad al-Badawi, who was behind the 2000 USS Cole Bombing.

Link

Afghanistan

Cholera outbreak kills 20 Children in southern Afghanistan

2022-07-12

[PUBLISH.TWITTER]

Cholera outbreak kills 20 Children in southern Afghanistanhttps://t.co/GVqY951cbX
— SHAFAQ News (@Shafaqnews) July 11, 2022

Twenty children died in a cholera outbreak in the southern Afghan province of Helmand
...an Afghan province populated mostly by Pashtuns, adjacent to Injun country in Pak Balochistan...
over the weekend, local media reported on Monday.

Pajhwok news agency cited Information Department Assistant Director Mawlavi Mohammad Qasim Riyaz saying that more than 120 children from the Baghran district had been infected.

Cholera is a dangerous infectious disease that can kill within hours if left untreated. It is caused by consumption of food or water contaminated with Vibrio cholera bacteria. Patients develop acute diarrhea and severe dehydration.

Link

Afghanistan

Mortar shell detonated in Helmand province, killing one person and injuring three others

2022-06-19

[PUBLISH.TWITTER]

A mortar shell detonated in Helmand province, killing one person and injuring three others, according to the local Taliban officials.
Read more at:https://t.co/8LjBmxQpn3
— Khaama Press (KP) (@khaama) June 18, 2022

Link

Afghanistan

Afghan Taliban launch campaign to eradicate poppy crop

2022-06-03

[FoxNews] Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers have begun a campaign to eradicate poppy cultivation, aiming to wipe out the country’s massive production of opium and heroin, even as farmers fear their livelihoods will be ruined at a time of growing poverty.
more likely: they will destroy all untaxed and unapproved crops.
On a recent day in Washir district in southern Helmand province, armed Taliban fighters stood guard as a tractor tore up a field of poppies. The field’s owner stood nearby, watching.

The Taliban, who took power in Afghanistan more than nine months ago, issued an edict in early April banning poppy cultivation throughout the country.

Those violating the ban "will be arrested and tried according to Sharia laws in relevant courts," the Taliban deputy interior minister for counter narcotics, Mullah Abdul Haq Akhund, told The Associated Press in Helmand’s provincial capital, Lashkar Gah.

Link

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