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Recent Appearances... Rantburg

Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Lebanese journalist takes on Hezbollah
2014-05-21
[Ynet] Hanin Ghaddar's attack on Nasrallah reflects battle between Leb's secular establishment and camp of Syria-Iran axis.

The Lebanese law bans any relations with Israel: No handshakes, no exchange of words, definitely no photographs and not even happening to be in the same room with "the Israeli enemy." Those who were caught, including Miss Leb, were put on trial and sentenced to three years in prison.

The two camps, the camp of the secular establishment and public opinion leaders and the camp of the Syria-Iran-Hezbollah axis, are now caught in a battle over the participation of fascinating journalist Hanin Ghaddar, the managing editor of Leb's popular English-language news website NOW, in a Washington conference. She was invited to lecture about the United States' policy in the Middle East and surprised everyone.

Instead of talking about failures and mistakes, as she was expected to do in Beirut, Ghaddar chose to lash out at Hezbollah and used harsh words to blame the organization for the wretched condition of the two million Syrian refugees who fled to camps in Leb. They are miserable, she complained, and we are collapsing under the human burden. We pity them, and we are entangled within ourselves.

The criticism hit Ghaddar from an unexpected place: The watchdogs of the Hezbollah-Iran-Syria axis found former Defense Minister Ehud Barak's name on the Washington conference's list of participants. They went and posted a huge (fabricated) picture of Barak and Ghaddar, and Hassan Nasrallah's mouthpieces declared that she had been "thrown to the dogs."

Such a headline in Beirut is not a child's play. It's a call to watch her, to plant an bomb in her car or in her home and to settle a long score with her.

Ghaddar is an unusual journalist in the Lebanese media landscape. Two years ago, she published a provocative article in New York-based Jewish magazine Tablet about her Shiite grandmother, who "loves Hassan Nasrallah, believes every word he says and he is her only hope."

For my grandmother, Ghaddar wrote without revealing what she herself thinks about Nasrallah, "it is very simple: Jews are evil; Hezbollah is good."

Those targeting Ghaddar have now published a "statement of disassociation" on behalf of her family and an "apology" to Nasrallah. I'm not sure there were such statements.

The Arabic-language press is waging a smear campaign against Ghaddar. Leb's English-language newspapers, on the other hand, have launched a campaign of solidarity with her. In Arabic they are demanding to throw her in jail and destroy her, in English they are slamming Hezbollah and defending Ghaddar.

The battle between the camps has turned into a reflection of the high politics in Beirut: President Michel Suleiman
...before assuming office as President, he held the position of commander of the Leb Armed Forces. That was after the previous commander, the loathesome Emile Lahoud, took office as president in November of 1998. Likely the next president of Leb will be whoever's commander of the armed forces, too...
has completed two terms, the law requires elections and a new president in the palace, but Hezbollah is torpedoing, threatening and disqualifying the candidates. Every moment, someone makes certain to fuel the battles between the two camps. This diverts the attention from the charged issue of electing a new president.

But Ghaddar isn't giving up: Upon her return to Beirut, she issued a new attack on Hezbollah in which she announced that she -- as opposed to them -- speaks with one voice: What she said in Washington she will say without hesitations at home too, despite what her grandmother says.

"They say I should have asked for permission before opening my 'big mouth' in Washington," she attacked. "Why didn't Nasrallah ask me for permission before he sent hundreds of fighters to help Bashir al-Assad in Syria and drove the refugees over to us?"

As for her "mingling" with Ehud Barak, Ghaddar stated that she did not break the law: She made it clear in advance that she would not attend his lecture and would not pick up the microphone before she was promised that Barak was not in the room.

She is not alone. In another conference, in the emirate of Qatar, the Lebanese participant asked the organizers to remove the name of the Israeli panelist from the itinerary. The Israeli was offended, and the Lebanese begged for his life. The Israeli gave up.
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Iraq
Kurdish Students In Iraq Push For Relations With Israel
2013-05-27
[Ynet] In University of Kurdistan, students debate whether to forge diplomatic ties with Israel. Debate judge tells Ynet 'arguments focused on historical connection between Jews, Kurds, says believes can have 'fruitful ties'

"Should Iraqi Kurdistan have open diplomatic relations with Israel?" Students in the University of Kurdistan think the answer is yes, at least that is the position that won during an unusual debate held in the university in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan.

More than 200 students from all of the university's faculties showed up to take part. In the event, two teams numbering three people each faced off in front of a judges' panel.

Susan Mandelvey, head of the university's public relations and one of the members of the judges' panel spoke to Ynet and said: "We see ourselves as an institution in which people can openly express their opinions."

At the end of the debate, the judges' panel decided that the team arguing for relations with Israel was victorious, and afterwards the audience echoed their decision vehemently voting in favor for relations with the Jewish state.

Another judge in the Erbil debate said: "The arguments of the winning team focused on the historic relations between Jews and Kurds. I also believe that we can have good and fruitful relations with Israel."

Nonetheless, she diplomatically evaded giving further details on the character of those relations when pressed for an answer, saying "because I judged the debate I am barred from fully stating my own opinion. I need to remain neutral."

Iraqi Kurdistan was formed in the wake of the 1991 Gulf War. Its formation was further spurred by the American invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Iraqi Kurds, who number around five million, enjoy the highest level of autonomy of the entire 30 million strong Kurdish population spread world wide, located mostly in Iran, Syria and Turkey.

In wake of Kurdish aspirations and independent identity, tension between the central regime in Storied Baghdad
...located along the Tigris River, founded in the 8th century, home of the Abbasid Caliphate...
and Masoud Barzani, Iraqi Kurdistan's regional government president since 2005, have become common.

Two persecuted people
Head of the university's student union, Uda Sarhang, a student of international relations, recalled the debate and said: "The central argument for those calling for open ties with Israel was that a majority of Mideast countries have ties with Israel; ties conducted peacefully despite their dislike of Israel. So, why can't we have the same ties?"

Sarhang, who admitted to also supporting the idea of ties with Israel, claimed that an additional argument made during the debate was the current relations conducted by Jewish Kurds and Kurdistan.

Despite the victory registered by those in favor, there were of course those who vehemently opposed the forging of any such type of relations.

"A number of the arguments that were made against the relations were religious claims, as well as additional arguments regarding Israel's treatment of Paleostinians," Sarhang said.

Prof. Ofra Bengio from Tel Aviv University's Dayan Center, who conducts extensive research on the topic of Kurds in the Mideast, spoke to Ynet and said that the debate was indeed a very unusual occurrence.

"This is not a common thing, not in Kurdistan and not anywhere," Prof. Bengio said, adding that "from what I gathered from meeting Kurds from different regions of Kurdistan, there is some kind of sense of a shared fate between us and Kurds, at least in the sense that we are both minorities in a region not interested in our self-determination."

Regarding the question of whether Kurdistan should have diplomatic ties with Israel, Prof. Bengio said: "Both sides are hesitant. The Kurdish side has strong interests dictating that it should not pursue ties with Israel, first and foremost because Kurds still don't have a state, and hence cannot really forge diplomatic ties with Israel."

Nonetheless, it is worth noting that in 2008 history was made when Iraq's president, Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, shook the hand of then Defense Minister Ehud Barak during an international summit in Greece.

Afterwards, in wake of the handshake, Iraqi parliament members called on Talabani to apologize and resign.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Hamas imposes restrictions keeping Gazans in Strip
2013-03-04
[Times of Israel] The Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, government has begun imposing new restrictions on residents of the Gazoo Strip, forcing them to apply for exit permits to enter Israel or the West Bank.

The Ministry of Interior issued a statement on February 27 insisting that all Gazoo residents wishing to leave the Strip through the Erez Crossing with Israel submit an application to the Interior Ministry in advance.

Hamas's decision came a day after Defense Minister Ehud Barak ordered the closing of the commercial Kerem Shalom crossing following the firing of a Grad rocket from Gazoo at the city of Ashkelon. The passage of residents through Erez was limited by Israel to humanitarian cases only and to Gazooks whose have registered addresses in the West Bank.

The crossing was expected to reopen Monday.

According to Israel's Foreign Ministry, 5,219 citizens crossed into Israel through the Erez crossing during the month of January, and 120 permits are given to Gazoo businessmen on a daily basis.

The Paleostinian Center for Human Rights, a Gazoo-based watchdog, expressed "grave concerns" regarding the new Hamas procedures.

"This decision increases the suffering of the already limited groups of people who are permitted to travel via the crossing by the Israeli forces," read a statement published by the group.

Since Israel usually issues entry permits for Gazoo residents on the day of travel, Hamas's new restriction would gravely impede their ability to leave the Strip, PCHR said.

Human rights organizations in Gazoo told The Times of Israel that they were not informed by the government in Gazoo about the reasons for the decision.

Khalil Abu-Shammala, director of the local human rights
...which are often intentionally defined so widely as to be meaningless...
organization A-Dameer, said that in the past individuals were prevented by Hamas from leaving the Gazoo Strip on suspicion of maintaining ties with the Israeli intelligence.

"Most decisions of this kind have a security pretext," Abu-Shammala said, noting that Hamas has also prevented members of Fatah from leaving Gazoo as a punitive measure. Just last week, he said, Hamas prevented Fatah Central Committee member Amal Hamad from leaving the Gazoo Strip and traveling to the West Bank.

This was not the first time Hamas has tried to implement this measure, said Sari Bashi, director of Gisha, an Israeli NGO dealing with Paleostinian freedom of movement. A year and a half ago Hamas tried to impose a travel restriction, but popular protests forced the government to back down.

Ali Abu-Shahla, a Gazoo-based businessman who travels to Israel every two to three weeks, said that according to his understanding, the new decision does not apply to merchants who frequent the Erez Crossing on a regular basis.

"This only applies to people who leave on a one-time basis, like the sick who need treatment," he told The Times of Israel. Abu-Shahla said that under Israeli regulations, merchants leaving Gazoo must inform the PA ministry for civil affairs two days before the intended date of travel and gain Israeli approval to exit the Strip.
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
For Third Time In 2 Years, 'Iran Fails To Launch Satellite'
2013-02-28
[Times of Israel] For the third time in two years, Iran failed in an attempt to launch a satellite into space, western intelligence sources said Tuesday.

Iran was attempting to launch a home-produced satellite with photographic capabilities, but the rocket carrying it failed to perform as expected, and all contact with both the rocket and the satellite were lost after launch, according to the sources, quoted by Israel's Channel 2.

Iran attempted the launch in secret about 10 days ago, and has been trying to cover up the failure, but the launch was registered by the western intelligence agencies, the report said.

News of the failed launch came on the day that Iran and the so-called P5+1 powers resumed negotiations over Iran's controversial nuclear program, and the day after Israel successfully tested a new long-range missile interceptor in a joint drill with the US.

It also coincided with the first rocket fire into Israel from Gazoo in three months -- an upgraded Fajr-5 rocket which slammed into Ashkelon on Tuesday morning, causing no casualties. Some reports claimed Tuesday that Iranian experts are in Gazoo helping Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, and other Islamist terror groups improve their rocket and missile technology for use against Israel.

Monday's trial of the Arrow 3 was described as a further improvement in Israel's capacity to fend off an Iranian threat.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed the Israeli technical skill, and the partnership with the US, involved in the system, which he said enabled the Israeli government to better protect its citizens.

Uzi Rubin, who oversaw the development of the entire Arrow system, said the Arrow 3 represented "the most sophisticated system of its kind" in the world.

The primary advantage of the Arrow 3 over its predecessor, the Arrow 2, is its ability to intercept enemy missiles at higher altitudes and to target non-conventional weapons of mass destruction. This is seen as particularly relevant amid concerns over the progress of Iran's nuclear program.

Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the test was an "important milestone in Israel's multi-layered protection system."

The Defense Ministry said the Arrow 3 "flew an exo-atmospheric trajectory through space, in accordance with the test plan."

The rocket, still in early stages of development, was not given a target to intercept.

Arrow 3 joins Arrow 2, Iron Dome and Magic Wand (also known as David's Sling) in Israel's "umbrella" defense against rocket threats. The Arrow 3 is expected to be deployed in 2016.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
US Budget Cuts May Axe Funds for Israel's Anti-Missile Systems
2013-02-20
Pro-Israel sources report that the axe on the US budget may eliminate $479 million for joint US-Israel anti-missile programs, namely David's Sling and Arrow systems, in addition to another $300 cut in military aid.
How convenient for Champ. Wonder if HUD, DoT, and DHS are getting hit...
The slash in aid would come on the eve of President Barack Obama's visit to Israel, which has been dubbed "Operation Unbreakable Alliance."

Senior Israel officials are aware of the possible reductions and are trying to figure out to deal with them, according to Israel's Globes business newspaper. Defense Minister Ehud Barak's recent visit to Washington may have been, in part, an attempt to convince Congressmen to dull the axe on funding for the anti-missile programs.

The threat of Israel's Middle East's neighbors plunging into anarchy and leaving Al Qaeda and Hizbullah in charge underscores the government's concerns.

The United States currently gives $3.15 billion in aid, although a large part of it actually is returned to American defense firms that Israel is required to use for much of the equipment and technology.

Congress and the White House have another week until the March 1 deadline, when either the federal deficit is reduced or automatic budget cuts come into effect, which could totally upset financial markets and America's credit rating.

Republicans control the House of Representatives and are using their power to try to crack the whip on government spending, both at home and abroad.
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Israel Deploys 3rd Missile System to North
2013-02-06
[An Nahar] Israel has deployed a third Iron Dome missile defense battery to the north of the country a few days after carrying out an air strike inside neighboring Syria, Israeli media said on Tuesday.

"The deployment of several Iron Dome batteries in the north of the country comes as part of the setting up of the system," an army spokesman was quoted as saying.

The third Iron Dome battery's dispatch comes after Defense Minister Ehud Barak implied Israel was responsible for a January 30 air strike inside Syria that was immediately attributed to the Jewish state.

The strike targeted a military complex near Damascus that a U.S. official later said contained surface-to-air missiles, and an adjacent facility said to house chemical weapons.

Israeli media last month reported the deployment of two Iron Dome batteries to the country's north as a precaution against potential attacks from Syria or Lebanon.

The Jewish state fears the possibility of chemical weapons falling into the hands of Islamist militants should Syrian President Bashar Assad fall, as Damascus continues to fight a two-year uprising that has turned into a bloody civil war.

The Iron Dome batteries -- which can shoot down missile attacks with a range of up to 70 kilometers (44 miles) -- would allow Israel to launch a quick strike on targets in its two northern neighbors, a security source told Agence France Presse.
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Hezbollah denies reports of Israel airstrike in southern Lebanon
2013-02-04
Lebanese media says transmission tower reportedly hit, and Sky News Arabia reports Israeli planes in the area, but Hezbollah says 'kaboom' was just a stun grenade
Either things are happening or the bad guys are starting to live on their nerves. Now is the time to send in the spy squirrels to chew on some wires, and the spy vultures to do whatever it is that spy vultures do.
Hezbollah denied Lebanese media reports late Sunday that the Israeli Air Force struck targets in the southern part of the country. The reports, following days of alleged "mock raids" by Israel, claimed a transmission tower was hit.

However the Shi'ite terror group, whose TV station initially reported the "strike," later said the blast was merely caused by a stun grenade, and Lebanese state TV said the same.

Tensions are acutely high on and across Israel's northern border, following a reported Israeli Arclight airstrike on Syria early last Wednesday, which apparently hit a convoy of SA-17 missiles en route to Hezbollah and damaged a Syrian WMD research facility.

Leb's FutureTV said the kaboom late Sunday was heard at approximately 10:30 PM local time in the area of Al-Fuar, near the coastal city of Tyre. Hezbollah, whose stronghold is in southern Leb, sealed off access to the area, according to the report.

The Hezbollah-run Al-Manar television station initially reported that it was the country's anti-aircraft system which first detected Israeli aircraft entering Lebanese airspace. Sky News in Arabic also reported that Israeli planes were seen in the area. Later, though, Hezbollah denied there had been an Israeli raid.

Israel had no official comment on the reports.

Earlier Sunday, Leb's Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour protested three successive days of reported Israeli "mock raids" over Leb, and branded last Wednesday's strike in Syria as an act of "aggression" against Leb, too.)

Mansour urged a diplomatic and economic boycott of Israel, declaring, "Israeli jets continue to invade Leb's airspace every day. We must stand up against the Israeli attacks, but not just with calls, statements and condemnation."

Also Sunday, in his first comments since an Arclight airstrike reportedly carried out by Israel targeted his country, Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
The Scourge of Hama...
said Syria's military was capable of confronting any "aggression."

In the aftermath of that alleged attack early Wednesday, Syria said the target was a scientific research center, while US officials indicated that the strike had destroyed a convoy of anti-aircraft weapons bound for Hezbollah.

Syrian state television
... and if you can't believe state television who can you believe?
said Assad spoke during a meeting with visiting top Iranian official Saeed Jalili.

On Sunday morning, Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted that Israel was involved in last week's strike. Barak said Israel was adamant that advanced weapons systems should not be allowed to reach Leb from Syria.

Israel has not commented directly on the strike, but in the days ahead of the attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other brass hats repeatedly warned of the dangers of Syrian weapons falling into the hands of Hezbollah and other hostile elements in the region.
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Barak: US has 'surgical operation' plan against Iran
2013-01-28
Defense minister challenges idea that operation against Iran would develop into "full fledged war the size of the Iraq war."

The United States has prepared plans for a "surgical" military operation to delay Iran's nuclear program in the event that diplomatic efforts to thwart Tehran's drive for nuclear weapons capability fail, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview with The Daily Beast on Friday.
The United States also has plans to invade Canada and the Virgin Islands, should it prove necessary. Having plans proves nothing, as the former prime minister of Israel should well know.
Speaking from Switzerland, where he is attending the Davos World Economic Forum, Barak challenged the notion that a military operation against Iran would develop into a "full fledged war the size of the Iraqi war or even the war in Afghanistan."

"What we basically say is that if worse comes to worst, there should be a readiness and an ability to launch a surgical operation that will delay them by a significant time frame and probably convince them that it won't work because the world is determined to block them," Barak told The Daily Beast.
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Syria-Lebanon-Iran
Iran actively weighs Syrian-Israeli clash. Iron Dome posted in N. Israel
2013-01-28
Debka
Tehran is looking seriously at a limited Syrian-Lebanese clash of arms with Israel -- possibly using Bashar Assad's chemical weapons as a trigger, debkafile's military and intelligence sources disclose. Reacting to this news, Israel announced Sunday, Jan. 27, the deployment of Iron Dome anti-missile batteries some days ago to reinforce security in northern Israel and the key Haifa port.

Israel announced the deployment of Iron Dome anti-missile batteries to reinforce security in northern Israel and the key Haifa port.
The Iranians see three strategic benefits in embroiling Israel in a limited war with its two allies, Syria and Hizballah:

1. A new outbreak of armed violence would direct world attention away from the Syrian civil war:

2. Israel would be sidetracked from a possible strike against Iran's nuclear facilities -- even a "surgical operation" such as Defense Minister Ehud Barak spoke of over the weekend -- by being thrown into multiple battles with Iranian forces in Syria and Lebanon, the Shiite Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihadi in the Gaza Strip.

The clash would be programmed to end without winners or losers like Israel's war against Hizballah in 2006 and its two anti-terror operations the Gaza Strip in 2009 and 2012. But meanwhile Israel would have its hands too full with threats on three borders to pursue military action against a nuclear Iran.

3. Tehran would buy another year's delay for spinning out its talks with the Six Powers (US, Russia, France, Britain, China and Germany) on their nuclear controversy.

At the weekly cabinet meeting in Jerusalem Sunday, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said "Israel faced some of the gravest threats in its existence" and they continue to run riot "in the east, the north and the south."

Behind his words, was an immediate neighborhood beset in last couple of weeks by al Qaeda's advance in Mali - now checked by French intervention; the Algerian gas field hostage siege; and the discovery of the strong interface among the various African Al Qaeda branches, including Egypt, in operations, logistics, shared arms suppliers and the pooling of jihadist manpower in the different arenas.
Israel's prime minister and security chiefs are clearly troubled by the perceived danger of the jihadist networks based in Egyptian Sinai and al Qaeda affiliates fighting in Syria joining up to attack Israel from two directions, the north and the south. This would be in keeping with the multiple, multinational terrorist threats surfacing in Africa.

With regard to Syria's chemical weapons, after convening an expanded security-diplomatic cabinet meeting last Wednesday, Jan. 23, the day after Israel's general election, Netanyahu remarked: "We have to look around us... What's happening in Iran and the lethal weapons in Syria, which is falling apart..."

He left the specifics to Deputy Prime Minister Sylvan Shalom, who said Sunday that if chemical weapons reached Hizballah or Syrian rebel hands, "Such a development would be a crossing of all red lines that would require a different approach, including even preventive operations."

But even Shalom did not specify where the red lines would be.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Israel, Switzerland Sign Security Cooperation Agreement
2013-01-26
Probably not trading chocolates and cuckoo clocks for Jaffa oranges and those really wonderful dates.
[Ynet] Defense Minister Ehud Barak met with his Swiss counterpart Ueli Maurer during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland
...home of the Helvetians, famous for cheese, watches, yodeling, and William Tell...
, and signed a security cooperation agreement between the two countries.

According to the agreement, the cooperation will be expressed in security policy, military industries and cooperation between the armies.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Meshaal Says 'Resistance' Depends on Situation
2012-12-10
[An Nahar] Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason, chief-in-exile Khaled Meshaal, on the third day of a trip to Gazoo, told students that different situations called for different measures -- from rockets to a truce.

He also renewed his call for efforts to implement a stalled Paleostinian reconciliation deal between his Hamas faction and bitter rival movement Fatah, which is led by president the ineffectual Mahmoud Abbas
... a graduate of the prestigious unaccredited Patrice Lumumba University in Moscow with a doctorate in Holocaust Denial...
Speaking at the Islamic University in Gazoo City, Meshaal appeared to back the continuation of a truce agreed between Israel and the Hamas movement last month, which ended an eight-day conflict in and around Gazoo.

"Resistance is the basis, but sometimes we agree to a truce, sometimes we escalate in various manners, sometimes we fire rockets, sometimes we don't," he said in a speech.

He praised the efforts of Gazoo's hard boy groups, saying they had surprised Israel's leaders, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman.

"Oh, young men and young women, we surprised the enemy, neither Netanyahu, nor Lieberman, nor Barak believed that the population of Gazoo, this small but wonderful piece of land, would dare to bomb Tel Aviv," Meshaal said.

He reiterated a call for Paleostinian unity he made at a Saturday rally celebrating the 25th anniversary of the founding of Hamas which rules the Gazoo Strip.

"We want national unity in the armed resistance and popular resistance. I urge you towards reconciliation and national unity of the Paleostinian ranks," he said.
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Israel-Palestine-Jordan
Mowing the lawn
2012-11-29
[Ynet] Analysis: IDF aware Operation Pillar of Defense in Gazoo not a long-term solution to Paleostinian rocket fire on south

After eight days of intense aerial bombardments of terrorist infrastructure in the Gazoo Strip, Israel agreed to an Egypt-mediated ceasefire, effectively marking the end of Operation Pillar of Defense. Despite the fact that over 70% of Israelis were against the ceasefire deal, the IDF raced to declare victory after the 9 pm deadline came into effect, touting its many, albeit minor, military achievements. And again, despite popular opinion, the IDF's case is strong.

Consider as a contrast the Second Leb War, widely perceived as a failure by the Israel public, and confirmed as such by the government-appointed Winograd Commission. In 2006, the IDF invaded Leb with a number of ambitious goals, including the toppling of Hezbollah and the engendering of long-term change in the Lebanese political system. Indeed, the loftiness of the goals rendered IDF action void ab initio, and doomed to insignificance even the military's considerable tactical victories.

Learning from its mistakes, for Operation Pillar of Defense the IDF set itself modest, achievable military goals. The first, tactical, was to deplete Hamas, always the voice of sweet reason,' stores of rockets and weapons systems.

The second, strategic, was to recreate a comprehensive deterrence capability that would cause bully boyz in the coastal enclave to hesitate before renewing rocket salvoes against Israel's south.

According to the IDF, during the course of the eight-day operation, Israel targeted:

o 30 senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Mohammedan Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the liquidation of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
terrorists
o 19 high-level command centers
o 980 underground rocket launchers
o 140 smuggling tunnels
o 66 tunnels used for terrorist operations
o 42 operation rooms and bases owned by Hamas
o 26 weapons manufacturing and storage facilities

To add a little bit of context, the IDF launched far more Arclight airstrikes in Gazoo during the first few days of Operation Pillar of Defense than during the same initial period of Operation Cast Lead of 2008-2009. The recent operation decimated Hamas' and other terrorist organizations' stores of Qassam rockets and mortars, while all but completely obliterating their Iranian-made Fajr-5 missiles.

On the diplomatic front, if Israel secures Egyptian cooperation over weapons smuggling into Gazoo, Hamas could find it exceedingly difficult to resupply and rearm. These represent incontestable tactical scores for the IDF, and could be considered, ipso facto, justification for Operation Pillar of Defense.

Which leads us to the IDF's deterrence capabilities: The IDF displayed the effectiveness of its budding UAV program, dubbed "Canopy of Fire," or hupat esh in Hebrew. The program is comprised of constant aerial surveillance of terrorist infrastructure in the Gazoo Strip.

Buzzing drones flying kilometers above the enclave use high-resolution cameras to monitor individual bully boyz conducting military operations, at times allowing the IAF to conduct rapid pinpoint strikes against the operatives. The program is increasingly successful, and will eventually threaten terrorists' ability to fire rockets into Israel without being targeted by an IAF strike.

Of course, the success of the operation will ultimately be judged in the coming weeks and months based on the stability of the ceasefire deal. If Israel has in fact managed to renegotiate the "rules of the game" to prohibit rocket fire on Israel's south, the operation will be deemed a success.

But be clear, there are very few within the IDF, if any, who believe that Operation Pillar of Defense is a long-term solution to Paleostinian rocket fire. Most expect the ceasefire to break down eventually, as Defense Minister Ehud Barak said, within "nine days, nine weeks, or more."

Far from being a regional game-changer, the operation was viewed as a tactical necessity, one which has frustrated the increasingly brazen terrorist attacks emanating from Gazoo, and which will have to be repeated in weeks, months, or years down the line.

It is viewed as both a sequel to Operation Cast Lead and a prequel to what will invariably be the next IDF operation in the Strip, and the next, until a diplomatic solution can be found.

In IDF slang, the process is known as "mowing the lawn." Only time will tell when the weeds will grow back.

Yoni holds a BA degree in Psychology with a minor in Political Science, from the University of British Columbia. He is currently working as a journalist in Israel, and his expertise lies in policy, conflict and Middle East affairs. Yoni was called up for reserve duty in the IDF's Strategic Division at the start of Operation Pillar of Defense.
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