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Recent Appearances...

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Israel will need to get used to Turkey’s growing footprint in Syria

2025-04-13

[IsraelTimes] Post-Assad Syria needs a strong country to help it out of the chaos, and Turkey wants in; with America backing Erdogan, there’s little Israel can do beyond insisting on red lines

~~The Sick Man of Europe~~ Turkey
...the decaying remnant of the Ottoman Empire...
’s growing involvement in Syria recently reached a flashpoint with Israel, following Israeli ~~Arclight~~ airstrike
...KABOOM!...
s in early April that targeted three Syrian airbases Turkey was reportedly looking to make use of. The incident prompted rare official statements from Ankara regarding its operations in Syria: Ottoman Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Rooters after the strikes that "Turkey has no interest in fighting any country on Syrian soil."

A week after the conciliatory statement, Fidan revealed in an interview with CNN
...formerly the Cable News Network, now who know what it might stand for...
Turk that Turkey and Israel are holding technical-level talks to avoid "military confrontations" in Syria, as the new leadership seeks to establish itself following the fall of Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Terror of Aleppo ...
Despite growing concern in Israel over Turkey’s entrenchment in Syria, Jerusalem appears to be left with few options to counter it.

"Ultimately, when it comes to Syria, Turkey simply cares more about it than Israel does, and invests accordingly. Israel’s interest in Syria is purely security-oriented," Gallia Lindenstrauss, a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), told The Times of Israel. "That gives Ankara the upper hand."

She added that US President Donald Trump
...So far he's been unkillable, and they've tried....
’s backing for Ottoman Turkish leader His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
further limits Israel’s maneuverability.

"President Trump made it clear in the last meeting with [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu in Washington that while he’s willing to help Israel with Turkey, Israel must make ’reasonable demands,'" Lindenstrauss said.

"He’s pushing Israel to adopt a minimalist approach in Syria. To prioritize, Israel will have to insist only on its most critical red lines, like preventing Iranian arms transfers to Hezbollah through southern Syria."

A HISTORY OF SUPPORT FOR REBELS
Ankara’s ties with Syria’s new leadership date back several years.

"Turkey was a friend to Syria and supported it from the start of the revolution — Syria will not forget this," the country’s new leader Ahmad al-Sharaa said on December 22, 2024, during a joint presser with Turkey’s foreign minister at the presidential palace in Damascus.

Before declaring himself president, Sharaa led the jihadist rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, formerly al-Nusra, before that it was called something else
...al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate, from which sprang the Islamic State...
, formerly known as Jabhat al-Nusra
...formally Jabhat an-Nusrah li-Ahli al-Sham (Support Front for the People of the Levant), also known as al-Qaeda in the Levant. They aim to establish a pan-Arab caliphate. Not the same one as the Islamic State, though .. ...
— an al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria. Sharaa cut ties with al-Qaeda several years ago and has sought to portray himself as a moderate since taking power, though Israel has expressed serious doubts.

While Turkey officially designates HTS and al-Qaeda as terrorist organizations, following US policy, and has never maintained formal diplomatic or economic ties with them, it has long been thought to offer varying degrees of support to Syrian rebel factions since the early days of the civil war in 2011.

President Erdogan turned on his closest domestic supporters, the Gulenists, because one of them reported seeing his son supervising the smuggling of funds and supplies across the border to ISIS in Syria at his behest, as I recall. It was a great scandal at the time.

"Turkey supported the full spectrum of Syrian rebel groups shortly after the civil war began, once it gave up hope for reform under the Assad regime," said Lindenstrauss.

That was when President Erdogan turned on his former BFF Bashir Assad….

"Anyone who fought against Assad received some level of Ottoman Turkish backing — logistically, medically, and in some cases, militarily.

"While Jabhat al-Nusra wasn’t the main beneficiary, Turkey did have closer ties with other rebel factions," she said. Such support was primarily coordinated by Ottoman Turkish intelligence, led at the time by Fidan — now Turkey’s foreign minister.

"In [Fidan’s] recent December meeting with Sharaa, you could see that these people have known each other for years," Lindenstraus said.

Turkey’s backing became very public following the swift success of the coup that ousted Assad. Turkey was the second country visited by Sharaa in his new role, following a trip to Saudi Arabia

...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula, largely made up of sand and oil rigs. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual haj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. Formerly dictatorial and steeped in Olde Tyme Religion, deferring to Salafist holy men on all issues, it has now done a 180 and is making a serious effort to modernize, so as not to be left in the sand by its Gulf Arab neighbors. The holy men have been shoved to the background and the nation is now still dictatorial but somewhat rational. That doesn't make them trustworthy, but it's a start...
. According to a study by the Washington Post Institute, during the early months of the new government in Syria, Turkey led the pack in diplomatic engagement, holding 93 meetings, including official, business and humanitarian contacts. The second most active country, Saudi Arabia, had only 34.

Turkey’s interest in Syria has been clear since the outbreak of the civil war: to ensure a stable, friendly regime on its eastern border, one that could even potentially support Ankara’s security interests.

"Turkey has vast ambitions regarding Syria," Lindenstrauss said. "It wants to block jihadist and Kurdish terrorism originating from Syrian territory. It even envisions Syria as a strategic outpost. On the economic front, Turkey doesn’t want to bear the cost of Syria’s reconstruction,

…given that Turkey has been flirting with bankruptcy for decades. they can’t afford to …

but it does want Ottoman Turkish companies to rebuild the country and reap the rewards.

"And then there’s the refugee issue: Syria hosted millions of refugees during the war, which has become a burning issue in Ottoman Turkish domestic politics. A stable Syria is key to Ankara’s goal of returning those refugees."

SYRIA SEEKS SUPPORT AMID ECONOMIC RUIN
As Syria emerges from over a decade of devastating civil war, its new leader finds himself ruling a nation that is exhausted, economically and socially. Sharaa rose to power quickly following the fall of Assad, but he now leads a country that is desperate for external support to maintain stability and rebuild.

One of Sharaa’s most consequential moves so far has been a public decision to end Syria’s primary source of income under Assad — the production and export of the drug Captagon — citing religious and moral reasons, as Islam prohibits narcotics.

Did ISIS know that? They lived on the stuff…

According to a 2023 study by the Observatory of Political and Economic Networks, a Canada-based research institute run by Syrian expats, the Captagon trade had in recent years generated up to $10 billion annually for the previous regime.

Now, with that revenue gone, Sharaa is seeking financial backers and strategic allies to keep the economy afloat and maintain military control, especially given Syria’s complex sectarian landscape, and the fact that his ascension to power did not come through democratic means.

Israel, however, remains concerned about the military aspect of Turkey’s deepening involvement.

Just a week after Assad’s ouster, on December 15, Turkey’s defense minister stated that Ankara was ready to provide military assistance to Syria’s new government if requested. During a visit to Turkey on February 4, Sharaa declared, "Syria and Turkey share a long history. Today, we announce that these ties are becoming a strategic partnership across all areas." On the same day, Rooters reported that the partnership would include a defense alliance, Ottoman Turkish-led training for the new Syrian army, and even Ottoman Turkish airbases on Syrian soil.

Despite these developments, there has yet to be visual confirmation of Ottoman Turkish troops inside Syria, unlike the Russian presence under Assad, which was well-documented and which currently endures, at a reduced scale, at Hmeimim Air Base.

Lindenstrauss noted that the full details of the Turkey-Syria agreement have not yet been released. "The fact that there’s talk of a security pact between Syria and Turkey, but no official publication of its terms, indicates sensitivity on both sides," she said.

AN ALLIANCE WITH CHALLENGES
Syria’s growing partnership with Turkey is proving to be a complicated balancing act domestically. A significant point of contention lies in eastern Syria, where Kurdish-led forces known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) have controlled approximately 40% of the country’s territory in recent years. On March 10, Sharaa signed a landmark agreement with the SDF’s leadership to integrate their autonomous administration into Syria’s new government structures and military.

The move represents a significant shift but will likely stir friction with Ankara. Turkey fundamentally opposes any form of Kurdish autonomy in Syria due to fears it could embolden its Kurdish population and lead to internal unrest.

"Turkey wants ’good Kurds’ — those willing to cooperate," explained Lindenstrauss. "But the SDF maintains ties with the Kurdish insurgency in Turkey, which has long called for independence for Turkey’s Kurdish minority. That makes the arrangement problematic for Ankara.

"Even now, after the agreement was signed, it remains unclear whether the SDF will disband or continue operating with some level of autonomy. They’re a large, well-armed militia controlling significant territory. It’s not clear why they would give that up voluntarily."

Beyond the Kurdish question, Syria’s tilt toward Turkey has sparked anxiety among other minority communities. Some fear a resurgence of political Islam in the country, which now dominates in Turkey, and possible persecution of non-Sunni groups.

An Alawite citizen in Syria, a member of a sect that split from mainstream Islam and who requested anonymity due to concerns for his safety, told The Times of Israel: "This relationship with Turkey isn’t good. If Syria stays under Ottoman Turkish influence, it will lead to the spread of political Islam.

"I believe Erdogan has a vision to restore the Ottoman Empire and dominate the Middle East," he said.

Indeed.

"A closer relationship with Saudi Arabia, a more moderate Sunni Arab power, would be a better path for Syria."

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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Assad's Gestapo Didn't Clean Up Before They Fled

2024-12-11

[PJMedia] I wrote not long ago about the consequences in Germany after Reunification when the Stasi records weren't successfully destroyed and the German people got hold of them. I suspect that recollection has a lot to do with why so many entrenched bureaucrats are so opposed to Gabbard, Ratcliffe, Hegseth, and Patel.

I have to admit I'm looking forward to the side-effects of a bunch of Trump's picks getting into the Cabinet and doing something similar with the Epstein passenger lists, the other 30,000 hours of the tapes from the Capitol "insurrection," and the records of the extensive wiretapping and surveillance of Trump and the Trump campaign.

The Assad records, assuming they become public and I strongly suspect they will, may be 100 times worse than any of these, and comparable to the records of the Nazi Sicherheitsdienst and the death camps.

Bashir Assad's murderous dictatorial regime has, we're certain, killed hundreds of thousands of Syrians with everything from simple guns and bombs to chemical weapons. They've also collaborated with Iran to supply Hamas and Hezbollah with weapons and safe harbor. (The Wikipedia article, at this moment, looks pretty reliable — and very depressing — if you want a summary.)

Consider some of what we can be pretty certain is in those records: Who in Russia is going to be implicated? Who in Iran? What about connections to the Ba'athist movements in Iraq, and the records from the Syrian occupation of Lebanon?

Archive of the Political Security Branch in #Sweida
south #Syria pic.twitter.com/Zr3zZ3WoOM
— C4H10FO2P ☠️ (@markito0171) December 7, 2024

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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Syrian Air Force and Russian Aerospace Forces Destroy Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Headquarters in Idlib

2024-12-03

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] The Syrian Air Force, with the support of the Russian Aerospace Forces, destroyed one of the headquarters of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation) in Idlib. This was reported on December 2 by the Sham FM radio station.

According to the radio station, dozens of militants were killed and wounded as a result of the strike, including one of the leaders of the terrorist group of Arab origin.

Very good.

As reported by the Regnum news agency, on November 27, militant groups in Syria launched an offensive against government army positions in the Aleppo region. The terrorists were able to capture 13 settlements.

On November 29, it became known that Syrian soldiers launched a counteroffensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militants in Aleppo and Idlib. The government army also managed to liberate the city of Al-Bakoum.

On December 2, the command of the Syrian government army announced that the country's troops and the Russian Aerospace Forces had destroyed more than 400 militants in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces in a few hours.

More from regnum.ru
Terrorists seized Aleppo with the help of US technology and support from Ukraine
Terrorists from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham group (a terrorist organization banned in Russia) captured the city of Aleppo thanks to Ukrainian advisers and advanced American technology. This was reported by RIA Novosti, citing a source close to the Syrian special services.

According to the source, the militants of the group have no experience in using high technology, but they managed to master it with the support of advisers from Ukraine, from the Islamic Party of Turkestan

…the Uighur contingent of Al Qaeda it started as an Islamist independence movement in China, joined Al Qaeda on the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, and sent a contingent to Syria to join Al Nusra/Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. They are known in Syria for being particularly nasty in a milieu that encourages nastiness…

(a terrorist organization banned in Russia) and Syrian officers who went over to the terrorists' side.

“The assault groups and drones were equipped with encrypted GPS devices and extensive use of artificial intelligence, so that the use and navigation of attack UAVs and kamikaze drones could be carried out from a long distance,” the unnamed source added.

He also noted that the Syrian army encountered powerful electronic warfare systems during the militants' offensive for the first time since 2011. As reported by Regnum News Agency, on November 27, militant units in Syria launched an offensive against government army positions in the Aleppo region. The terrorists were able to capture 13 settlements.

On November 29, it became known that Syrian soldiers launched a counteroffensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militants in Aleppo and Idlib. The government army also managed to liberate the city of Al-Bakum. On December 2, the command of the Syrian government army stated that Syrian troops and the Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) had destroyed more than 400 militants in the Aleppo and Idlib provinces in a few hours.

Courtesy of Lord Garth:

Iran sends aid to Syria, maybe including troops
[IsraelTimes] As Iran sends forces to Syria, IDF warns it not to smuggle arms to Hezbollah

Speaking to Sky News Arabia, Israel Defense Forces spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the military is closely following the events in Syria and has observed Tehran sending forces to bolster Assad’s regime.

-------------
article contained image of Bashir Assad in his palace, per the image it was on 1 December 24.

Good to know.

More from the Times of Israel

Hundreds of Iran-backed Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria on Monday to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah has no plans for now to join them, according to sources.

Iraqi and Syrian sources confirmed the deployment of more Iran-backed Iraqi fighters to Syria. Iran’s foreign minister said Tehran “will provide any support needed” and that “resistance groups” would come to Assad’s aid.

At least 300 fighters, primarily from Iraq’s Badr and Nujabaa groups, crossed late on Sunday using a dirt road to avoid the official border crossing, two Iraqi security sources said, adding that they were there to defend a Shi’ite shrine.

A senior Syrian military source said the fighters had crossed in small groups to avoid airstrikes. “These are fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the front lines in the north,” the source said.

The head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, which includes the major Shi’ite militia groups aligned with Iran, said no group under its umbrella had entered Syria, and that it does not operate outside Iraq.

But Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group, which is the most capable Iran-backed force in Assad’s military alliance in Syria, has not yet been asked to intervene and was not ready to send forces after the 14-month-long war it initiated with Israel, said three sources familiar with the group’s thinking.

In recent months, Hezbollah withdrew its operatives from Syria, including the north, to focus on battling Israel in southern Lebanon, after the IDF launched its ground operation in late September after a year of near-daily Hezbollah attacks displaced some 60,000 residents of northern Israel.

The rebels who swept this week into Aleppo pointed to Hezbollah’s withdrawal as one of the reasons they faced little resistance from government forces.

Hezbollah bases and weapons shipments through Syria have been repeatedly hit by Israel, which has sought to weaken Iran across the region.

Arab countries and Washington have seen the weakening of Hezbollah as a potential opportunity to peel Assad away from his alliance with Iran.

Sources have told Reuters that the United Arab Emirates and United States had been discussing the possibility of lifting sanctions against Assad if he reduces his reliance on Tehran. The rebel advance could complicate this if it pushes Assad to depend more on Iranian support.

Fog of war?

Pro-Iranian militias enter Syria from Iraq to aid beleaguered Syrian army
[IsraelTimes] Iranian-backed militias entered Syria overnight from Iraq and were heading to northern Syria to beef up beleaguered Syrian army forces battling insurgents, according to two Syrian army sources.

Dozens of Iran-aligned Iraqi Hashd al Shaabi fighters from Iraq also crossed into Syria through a military route near Al Bukamal crossing, a senior Syrian army source tells Reuters.

“These are fresh reinforcements being sent to aid our comrades on the front lines in the north,” the officer says, adding that the militias included Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun groups.

“It’s time to earn those paychecks, boys!”

Iran sent thousands of Shiite fighters to Syria during the Syrian war and, alongside Russia with its air power, enabled Syrian President Bashar Assad to crush the insurgency and regain most of his territory.

A lack of that manpower to help thwart the rebel onslaught in recent days contributed to the speedy retreat of Syrian army forces and withdrawal from Aleppo city, according to two other army sources. Militias allied to Iran, led by the Hezbollah terror group, have a strong presence in the Aleppo area.

Hezbollah has been seriously weakened in its war with Israel over the past year.

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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Unknown assailants kill a militant of the Iranian-backed Liwa Fatemiyoun

2023-04-17

[PUBLISH.TWITTER]

Unknown assailants kill a militant of the Iranian-backed Liwa Fatemiyoun in an armed attack in #Palmyra desert in eastern #Homs, central #Syria. #Iran https://t.co/sI84kDUd8P
— NORTH PRESS AGENCY - ENGLISH (@NPA_English) April 16, 2023

Liwa Fatemiyoun is the Afghan Shiite paramilitary that Iran stood up in 2014 to support President Bashir Assad’s government against the rebels.

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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

In a bid to quell protests, Syrian gov’t forces deploy mass troops to Suwayda after 2 killed in protests

2022-12-05

[PUBLISH.TWITTER]

In a bid to quell #protests, Syrian government forces deploy mass troops to the governorate of #Suwayda in south #Syria.https://t.co/Xyqjx0uHpw
— NORTH PRESS AGENCY - ENGLISH (@NPA_English) December 4, 2022

Military vehicles with soldiers onboard headed from Daraa towards Suwayda, south Syria, in line with protests sweeping the governorate.

A local source told North Press he "saw military reinforcements heading from Brigade 12 located in the town of Izraa, north Daraa, towards the governorate of Suwayda."

According to the source, such reinforcement were sent following the recent popular protests in the city.

Today morning, tens of locals in Suwayda organized a protest in front of the governorate building that was met with fire in which a young man was killed and five others were maimed.

Reinforcement included military vehicles onboard tens of soldiers and four-wheel-drive vehicles installed with anti-aircraft heavy machine guns.

Brigade 12, which is nearly a 14 km distance from the city of Suwayda, is a biggest force within the Fifth Division. It is home to a mass number of military personnel and vehicles.

Two dead as protesters, police clash in southern Syria

Something in Syria unconnected to the War on Terror.

[Rudaw] A protester and a policeman were killed Sunday in Syria's southern city of Sweida as security forces cracked down on a rare demonstration by hundreds against deteriorating living conditions.

Tensions were high in the regime-held city after protesters threw rocks at a government building and stormed it, removing a large picture of

Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Leveler of Latakia...
from its facade, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said.

"At least one protester and one police officer were killed," Observatory chief Rami Abdel Rahman told AFP.

The protester was rubbed out when security forces opened fire after demonstrators entered the building, he said, adding that government forces have fanned out in the city, dispersing protesters.

Local news outlet Suwayda24 confirmed the two deaths and said four others were taken to hospital with gunshot wounds in the Druze-majority city.

The Sweida region south of Damascus is the heartland of the Druze, who made up less than three percent of Syria's pre-war population and have largely kept out of the country's civil war.

That war has killed nearly half a million people since it began in 2011 with the brutal repression of anti-government protests, fragmenting the country and causing economic collapse.

- 'PURSUE THE OUTLAWS' -
Suwayda24 posted images on social media earlier in the day that showed protesters calling for the fall of the regime as security forces stood guard outside the building.

Other images showed a military vehicle on fire and burning tyres on main streets of the city. Gunshots could be heard in some of the footage.

Syria's interior ministry said a "group of outlaws" killed one policeman while they tried to storm police headquarters.

Some protesters carried weapons, the ministry said.

"We will pursue the outlaws, and take legal measures against anyone who tries to tamper with the security and stability of the Sweida governorate and the safety of its citizens," the ministry said in a statement on Sunday.

State television said "lawbreakers" had stormed the provincial government building and "set fire to official documents and files".

Syria's economy has been pummelled by both its long-running civil war and Western sanctions against Damascus, and the value of the local currency has plummeted.

Ninety percent of the population now lives below the poverty line and 12.4 million people are food insecure, according to the United Nations
...a formerly good idea gone bad...
Sweida and other cities have been hit hard by nationwide electricity rationing and chronic fuel shortages that severely hamper daily life.

It’s a worldwide problem, guys, thanks to certain really stupid decisions made by presidents Putin and Biden, not to mention a good many others around the world. I wish y’all were special, because that would mean dear Dr. Bashir Assad would be able to make it all better with the wave of his hand, but your aren’t and he can’t.

The government in recent days announced further austerity measures, including more electricity rationing.

In February, hundreds erupted into the streets in Sweida to demand better living conditions and democratic rule, the Observatory said at the time. Smaller protests were held there in 2020.

The Times of Israel adds:

Protests in Syria’s Druze-majority Sweida province turn ~~violent~~ mostly peaceful, leading to the deaths of a protester and a police officer, and wounding seven others.

Anti-government demonstrations are rare in Syria where

Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Before going into the family business Pencilneck was an eye doctor. If he'd stuck with it he'd have had a good practice by now...
stamped out a pro-democracy uprising over a decade ago. Assad survived the resulting civil war but the conflict has plunged Syria into poverty, coupled with a food security and energy crisis.

Though Sweida has generally been spared from the civil war, anti-corruption protests have occurred in the Druze-majority province over the past few years, with tensions simmering between residents and the Syrian government led by Assad.

Dozens of residents gather by the Sweida governorate building, decrying the dire economic situation and chanting anti-government slogans before some break into the building.

Dozens? That’s not very big. The Rudaw article above makes it sound like furious crowds were rampaging across the city.

The Syrian Interior Minister in a statement says that the people who raided the building were armed, and destroyed furniture, smashed windows, and looted files. The statement adds that a police officer was killed after protesters attacked a cop shoppe.

Link

Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Syria lined pockets with millions in aid using distorted exchange rate — study

2021-10-24

Bashir Assad isn’t your normal high school dropout thug, donchaknow. He trained to be an eye surgeon.

[IsraelTimes] Think tank says manipulations helped Damascus evade sanctions and deny help to worst hit in civil war-wracked country; UN reviewing donations

Syrian Hereditary President-for-Life Bashir Pencilneck al-Assad
Oppressor of the Syrians and the Lebs...
’s government has diverted at least $100 million in currency from international aid money to state coffers over the past two years, benefiting from variations in exchange rates, according to new research.

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Syria-Lebanon-Iran

Syrian Army reinforcements pour into northwest Hasakah to halt militant advance

2019-11-01

You’ve got this, Bashir Assad.

[ALMASDARNEWS] The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has sent several units of reinforcements to the northwestern countryside of the al-Hasakah Governorate on Thursday.

According to reports from northwestern al-Hasakah, the Syrian Army reinforcements poured in from several areas across northern Syria, as they attempt to halt the hard boy advance near the key town of Tal Tamr.

The Syrian Army reinforcements were sent to this front following a successful counter-attack by the military and allied Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) north of Tal Tamr last night.

A source from the army said the military is hoping to forestall the hard boy advance, while further securing the territories around Tal Tamr’s northern and western countrysides.

The ~~Ottoman~~ Turkish-backed gunnies have captured several areas between Ras al-’Ayn and Tal Tamr over the last week, but this is mostly due to the fact they possess heavier weapons and air support from the ~~Ottoman~~ Turkish Armed Forces.

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Government

The Gathering Storm (Russia Edition)

2016-10-18

"[FormerSpook] The logical starting point is Russia. As John Schindler recently noted in the New York Observer, we are facing a likely nuclear standoff with Russia in the Baltics region, probably before President Obama leaves office. It's no secret that Vladimir Putin has no regard for the American leader, and he is determined to inflict another humiliation on Mr. Obama before he leaves office.

It's long been obvious that Vladimir Putin and his inner circle view Barack Obama with utter contempt. To the hard men in Moscow, who got their schooling in the KGB, our diffident, wordy Ivy League lawyer president is a weakling--almost a caricature of everything they despise about the postmodern West.

Here the Kremlin mirrors most Russians, who find Obama a puzzling and contemptible man. This is nothing new. I’ve heard remarkable put-downs of our commander-in-chief for years, going back to 2008, even from the mouths of highly educated Russians. Their comments are invariably earthy, insulting, and nowhere near politically correct.

It’s therefore no surprise that Russians view Obama with contempt--and so does their leader. As our president winds up his second term and prepares to move out of the White House, the Kremlin simply isn’t bothering to hide that contempt any longer, even in high-level diplomacy, where a modicum of tact is expected.

Of course, Mr. Obama hasn't exactly helped his cause by ignoring Russian provocations and refusing to make tough choices--and stand behind them. That non-existent "red line" in Syria was followed by Putin making (and keeping) his own vow to support long-time ally Bashir Assad. Pentagon analysts claim Russia's military efforts in Syria have been far from a victory, but that misses the central point. Putin didn't go to war to defeat ISIS; his primary objective was to prevent Assad's military collapse and weaken the U.S.-backed rebel groups trying to depose his regime. By those metrics, the deployment has been successful.

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Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Blair: Sunni states ready to normalize Israel ties based on Arab peace plan

2016-05-26

The man has become a monomaniac. No sooner has his Herzog-in-government effort failed than he turns up with this rerun that never flew before, and won't fly now.

[IsraelTimes] Former British prime minister Tony Blair says Sunni Muslim countries are ready to normalize ties with Israel should the Jewish state negotiate a peace deal with the PA on the basis of the Arab Peace Initiative.

The plan, first proposed in 2002, calls for full normalization between Israel and the Arab world in exchange for a withdrawal from the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Golan Heights.

The first might happen with an honest Palestinian government, the third might have happened back when Bashir Assad controlled all of Syria, the second might have happened if Yasser Arafat had accepted the trade for peace instead of literally running away. But until there is an honest Palestinian government and Syria is at peace, what is the point of negotiations?

It would include land swaps, the establishment of a Paleostinian state and a negotiated agreement on Paleostinian refugees.

The negotiation on Palestinian refugees is that they can all settle in the Palestinian territories... but they could do that now without any agreement, were the Palestinians willing to share with their "kin".

"Provided the Israeli government is ready to commit to a discussion around the Arab peace initiative ... it would be possible to have some steps of normalization along the way to give confidence to this process," says Blair, according to Haaretz.

Oh. It's Ha'aretz, the correctly self-described New York Times of Israel. No wonder this report does not ask what confidence-building steps will be asked of the Palestinians.

"With the new leadership in the region today that is possible. A lot will depend on the response of the Israeli government to President Sissi’s initiative and to the Arab Peace Initiative, and to whatever steps the Israelis are ready to take," he says.

President Sissi was in on Mr. Blair's initiative to put Herzog in Israel's government. Did he happen to mention this to Prime Minister Netanyahu during their near-daily phone calls?

Blair has in recent years been working independently on a peace deal between Israel and the Paleostinians.

I don't recall -- is Mr. Blair part of former president Jimmy Carter's Elders, that group of leftist former heads of state and other important people that provides unsolicited advice to those who aren't interested? President Carter himself just announced he is moving to emeritus status, according to Politico, so hopefully only the non-emeritus Elders will now have to screen his calls.

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--Tech & Moderator Notes

Of Course Israel Will Say No

2014-01-20

by Steve White

An editorial yesterday in the Jerusalem Post, commented on here at the Burg, posited in an interesting question: can Israel say 'no' to the United States?

At one level the answer is an obvious 'yes', they can say 'no'. Israel is an independent state. But then the hand-wringers start with the idea that while theoretically Israel can do so, in practice Israel is beholden to the U.S. for political support, military aid and free navigation of the eastern Mediterranean Sea and the Red Sea. The U.S. keeps the various BDS butters at bay, and keeps the Europeans from withdrawing their support and recognizing an independent Palestinian state. Without these Israel will surely shrivel and die over time, so Israel must follow the U.S. lead. If John Kerry (he of the chin, the rich wife and the aristocratic upbringing, without any of the advantages these normally convey) demands that Israel accept the American position in the ongoing 'peace' negotiations with the Palestinians, then Israel must do so. Refusal means the loss of American support with all the aforementioned consequences, after which come the boils and locusts. Today Palestinian state, tomorrow moose and squirrel, the theory goes.

As the editorial correctly points out, Israel could say no to Mr. Kerry. Israel has successfully defied past American presidents including Ronald Reagan, we are told. Several Israeli prime ministers have refused to acquiesce to American demands when doing so would have compromised Israel's core principles starting with its right to exist. Israel did not come to an end on any of these occasions.

Further, Mr. Obama will be gone in less than three years. While the Democratic party clearly has allowed its anti-Israel wing to gain precedence (Hillary Clinton would push Israel at least as hard, and Elizabeth Warren would go full-keffiyeh), there is no guarantee that the Democrats will be in charge of anything in 2017.

These facts alone would stiffen the spine of an Israeli prime minister, even a Labour one, but there's more. In a year or so Israel will be completely independent of foreign sources of natural gas, thanks to the new finds in the off-shore fields in the Med. That will translate into independence on energy sources except for heavy oil and gasoline. Energy independence will necessarily make Israel's foreign policy more independent of Washington.

But the real reason Israel is about to say 'no' to Mr. Kerry can be found by simple strategic analysis, the sort that true world statesmen do routinely (perhaps the Harvard Kennedy School could offer a remedial course to the Secretary of State). The question is simple one: what are the threats to Israel's security over the next decade, which is as far into the future as one can realistically see?

Not Egypt -- Egypt is imploding, the Muslim Brotherhood is for now contained, and the military rulers of Egypt will not go after Israel unless they need a Malvinas/Falklands incident to cover their asses. It could happen but it isn't likely. Egyptian leaders will be too busy trying to feed their people and loot what's left of the wealth in the country to go after Israel. Further, one should remember that the Egyptian military now depends almost exclusively on American military equipment and western advisors; changing that requires time and money. As long as they depend on the U.S., Egypt will not wage an offensive war.

Not Syria -- Syria is in the midst of full civil war, one that has dragged in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq. As odious as Bashir Assad is, he's too smart to provoke Israel until the war is over.

Not Saudi-controlled Arabia -- the King and princes there play a long game. They may not like the Zionist entity but they find Israel to be useful, particularly with a belligerent, Shi'a dominated Iran threatening to take over the Persian Gulf. As the Saudis have seen, it's easier to rail at the evil Joooz, and to use them for propaganda purposes, than it is to fight them.

Not Jordan -- Jordan is a poor country with a modest military and multiple threats to its existence. Syria is to the north, the Jordanian population is 60% Palestinian, and al-Qaeda is working quietly to establish a beachhead. The last thing King Abdullah wants is a war with Israel.

Not Lebanon -- see Syria.

That leaves two threats to Israel's existence: the Palestinians and Iran. The latter is providing the former with cash, weapons and support such that Hamas in Gaza is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. The laughable and ineffectual Palestinian Authority can't pay its own people without the support of the Europeans, the U.N. and America. Israel has a firm grip on the West Bank, and should the Palestinians try a third intifada, Israel would be ready -- it has had the experience of dealing with Palestinian insurrection in the past. Would an intifada be a serious event? Without question. Can Israel handle it without American support? Yes it can.

Would Iran really use nuclear weapons against Tel Aviv? One cannot reject the possibility completely as the ayatollahs and Revolutionary Guard are not completely sane by western standards. But they are sane by their own standards, and it's very unlikely that they would risk a nuclear retaliation -- one that Israel says would certainly come -- and the loss of major Iranian population centers. Iran also plays a long game.

Suppose this strategic analysis is correct. Suppose also one accepts that the current Israeli military out-guns any single opponent, and is at parity or better against even a combination of opponents. Suppose further that the Israel political situation is such that while the major parties will squabble over almost anything, the one thing they'll be united on is resisting any existential threat to their country.

In that situation, saying 'no' to John Kerry is not only the smartest option, it's virtually the only option.

The western press and western governments then will mewl, and both Mr. Kerry and President Obama will bluster and threaten. But they can't make good on their threats, and soon they'll be gone.

Israel knows this. Of course they'll say no.

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--Tech & Moderator Notes

The Obama Imperium

2013-09-02

This is a rebuttal to Steve White's editorial last Saturday.

By Chris Covert
Rantburg.com

What does the 1986 air raid in Libya, the 1991 Desert Storm battle and the 2003 Liberation of Iraq have in common? Obviously those are all military operations in which the United States had a hand and at least the veneer of justification. Not only that, but somewhere in the justification for launching military operation, an American nexus was apparent.

If President Barak Obama gives the go, US military forces will launch a brief aerial bombing campaign in Syria against soft military targets not because of any strategic imperative, nor because US interests would be advanced, but because a liberal president drew a "red line" and must back up US credibility.

Some entity in Syria possibly the dictatorial government of Bashir Assad launched a chemical attack that has killed around 1,400 individuals. United States UN ambassador Samantha Powers tweeted Saturday morning that among the dead were 426 children who died without, in her words, "a scratch, shrapnel wound, cut, nor gunshot wound..."

The missing irony of those unfortunate choice of words is that at least as many children in the Syrian Civil War have been killed by both sides by shrapnel, bullets and rubble. Typical with today's western liberal that the lives of "our children", is more valuable and worthy of outrage than the other 1,000 dead who were not children. Children dying in war is certainly horrible but in a conflict in which children have been dying for the last two years, the one thing most notable in this attack is the chemical weapons used.

But liberals will use the dead bodies of children like a bloody shirt to goad a feckless American leader into launching an airstrike against Syria. And as I have read elsewhere liberals are threatening to use Congressional refusal to intervene as a campaign issue in 2014. It isn't the first time our left has used dead children as a prop for a policy goal, and it won't be the last, but they can't hide the fact that the children who died were not American children. They were not even the children of any ally, but the children of a people who are the sworn enemy of Israel, which is -- last time I checked -- still an ally of the United States.

I won't make at this point dire predictions about what could happen following an airstrike against Syria. The possible scenarios that could happen could well be the same should Obama not hit Syria. Whatever entity in Syria which launched the chemical attack may well be planning a second attack already regardless of whether Syria is attacked, and it is just as likely the chemical attacker already shot his bolt. No more funny gas.

Regardless, unless Bashir Assad or the Syrian opposition wakes up and decides that coming to the negotiation table is preferable to the bloodletting that has gone on in the last two years, the bloodletting will go on, US airstrike or not. Nothing will change. Children will die only next time, we won't see photos of grieving families. We will see nothing. The left will be plotting to line up their next policy goal looking desperately for photos of more dead children to advance their agenda.

The decision to go to war is a shared decision, but as I have said elsewhere the War Powers Act allows a US chief executive to launch a military strike anywhere and at any time of his own choosing. His only constraint is that he has to come to Congress before 90 days are up to seek approval, and by that time, the US Navy fleet gathering in the eastern Mediterranean Sea will have been dispersed to other missions. Probably.

We are in the fifth year of the reign of a president who has offered very few good ideas and a whole slate of bad ones. The proposed airstrike against Syria is but another of a long line of bad ideas. But that is how Obama and his supporters in the medea and elsewhere are. He can't help himself. Bad ideas flow from him like effluent into Lake Michigan. It is Obama's imperium.

Chris Covert writes Mexican Drug War and national political news for Rantburg.com and BorderlandBeat.com. He can be reached at grurkka@gmail.com His latest work of non-fiction, The Wounded Eagle: Volume 2 went on sale yesterday at Amazon.com and Smashwords.com

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This is not a time for joy

2013-08-31

by Steve White

This is not a time for joy.

We debate this week the use of chemical weapons in Syria by the regime of Bashir 'Pencilneck' Assad, and the proper response of the world to such use. The US government yesterday declassified a report that suggests very strongly that Assad and his henchmen have used these weapons on the Syrian people, and more than once. Our intelligence experts now have 'high confidence' that this has happened.

This indeed has crossed a red line. That red line was declared, and rightly so, because the use of chemical and biological weapons is qualitatively different than that of the usual carnage of civil war and national war. One is just as dead from Sarin as from a bullet, but the use of nerve gas demonstrates a profound depravity and indifference to the final cost on humanity.

The use of chemical weapons against civilians is abhorrent. It was correctly cited as one of the several reasons why we went after Saddam Hussein. His removal was in part a consequence of his willingness to murder his own people wholesale with chemical weapons.

I do not want my grandchildren living in a world where the use of these weapons by genocidal thugs against innocent people is common-place. That means there must be real consequences when they are used.

The leaders of Great Britain and France, Mr. Cameron and Mr. Hollande, understand this; that is why they have voiced the desire to deal militarily with Bashir Assad. Unfortunately, neither has been able to communicate these stark facts and the need to respond with more than a sternly worded note to their people. The predictable result is that the British and French people aren't willing to go forward in an operation that will spill blood and cost treasure.

Likewise, Secretary of State John Kerry understands this; that is why he stood at a podium yesterday like a district attorney reading an indictment. Mr. Kerry wants to do "something". His instincts are right; his strategy and planning are lacking.

Yes, there must be real consequences for gassing one's people. But in doing so there must be a strategy that is deep, tested and supported by the large majority of our country. It must be applied by leaders who have been consistent and who understand that strategy, and who employ advisors who nurture and refine that plan. It must be supported by our people and not used by one political party as a piñata.

George W. Bush was (mostly) straight-up in why he thought we had to go after Saddam in 2003, and look at the opposition he had. Is it any surprise that Barack Obama, having been demonstrated to the satisfaction of many to be feckless and dissembling on national security issues such as Benghazi, Iran, the NSA and Afghanistan, now has no credibility at home when he says (correctly) that Syria must be punished for crossing a red line in the use of chemical weapons? That if we don't punish Syria then other genocidal thugs will conclude that it is similarly safe for them to trample that red line?

Senator and candidate Obama loudly proclaimed that President Bush could not take our country to war without the consent of Congress. He now schemes to take us to war -- again -- without the consent of Congress. Senator and candidate Obama told us that if only we had a different foreign policy, the Arabic world would reach out to us. It has instead shunned us. Senator and candidate Obama told us that our problems in the world were caused in large part by the foreign policy we had had for the past fifty years. President Obama certainly changed that foreign policy, so that now our friends mistrust us and our antagonists are emboldened.

When our country (and 40 others) attacked Iraq in 2003, progressive Democrats complained vociferously that we had no overall strategy, no plan for the peace, and no exit plan. You'd think that in 2013 the Obama administration would be smart enough to learn from that, and present to us a coherent strategy and some sort of exit plan, as best as can be envisaged today. President Obama has not done that -- either he doesn't trust the American people to understand these issues, or he doesn't believe that he needs approval of the American people, or -- worst of all -- he doesn't have a strategy and a plan.

None of this inspires confidence. Confidence is exactly what we need right now; confidence that our leaders are honorable to an American code, confidence that smart people are being allowed to do their jobs and have the vision to understand the fundamental gravity of these issues, and confidence that people will be held accountable for the actions they take, right or wrong.

President Obama doesn't inspire confidence; therefore we have none.

No one should take joy in this. Our friends and enemies alike will see the lack of resolution and backbone here in the U.S., in Britain and in France and so on, and act accordingly. War is coming.

But do not think that President Obama will act "on behalf of the global community". President Obama either will not act at all because he can't convince us to have confidence in him, or else he will act despite that and his acts will be seen as being done for himself.

That's the worst part of this.

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