India-Pakistan |
Ahmedabad blasts: With 38 getting death, a salute to the brilliant investigators |
2022-02-19 |
[OneIndia] On February 8 the special court had held 49 people guilty for the blast in which 56 people were killed and over 200 injured. 28 persons had been acquitted as the court did not find evidence against them. The blast was the handiwork of the Indian Mujahideen A locally recruited auxilliary of Pakistain's Lashkar-e-Taiba, designed to give a domestic patina to Pakistain's terror war against its bigger neighbor... which had only a year before the blast announced its arrival in Uttar Pradesh following a blast at a court. The Indian Mujahideen comprised members of the Students Islamic Movement of India. It was decided to launch the IM as the SIMI had been banned under the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government. |
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India-Pakistan |
Radical Sikh outfits, Pak-based Twitter handles fomenting trouble: Rawat on farmers' stir |
2021-02-07 |
[OneIndia] Uttarakhand Chief Minister Trivendra Singh Rawat on Saturday said US-based outfits such as Justice for Sikhs and around 300 Pakistain-based Twitter handles are stoking anger among farmers as he challenged those protesting the three new agricultural laws to prove how they are harmful to farmers. Those behind the farmers'' agitation want to break the nation, he said, claiming the new farm laws have brought real freedom to farmers to sell their produce anywhere they want, apart from in the traditional mandis. "I am sure those agitating against the new farm laws will be at a loss if challenged to prove how they are harmful to farmers," Rawat said after distributing Rs 300 crore ...one crore equals ten million, and there are almost 73 Indian rupees to one US dollar, according to the internet. The exact amount he gave away I leave as an exercise for the student... worth interest-free loans to farmers under the Deendayal Upadhyay Co-operative Farmers'' Welfare Scheme."Anger among farmers is being stoked by US-based outfits like Justice for Sikhs and around 302 Twitter handlers in Pakistain because they don''t want farmers in India to grow under the prime ministership of Narendra Modi," Rawat said. Ah hah! We’ll use the Govt. of Pakistan Proxies tag. Criticising the New York Times![]() ...which still proudly displays Walter Duranty's Pulitzer prize... for allegedly describing Narendra Modi as a "dangerous patriot", the Chief Minister asked how being patriotic can be dangerous. "If we (the BJP government) had the powers of Hanuman, ...Hindu monkey demigod... we would have split our hearts open to show what lies there for farmers," the Chief Minister said.Appreciating the farmers of Uttarakhand who have stayed away from the day''s ''chakka jam'' in other states against the new farm laws called by the protesting unions, Rawat said he wants to thank them for refusing to submit to the forces that want to "instigate" them to serve their own interests. Reassuring farmers that the Modi government cannot ever think of harming them as empowering them monetarily to increase their buying capacity is integral to the BJP's ideology, Rawat said the prime minister should be credited for implementing the recommendations of the Swaminathan Commission for farmers. Naming Central schemes such as the PMGSY introduced during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government, Narendra Modi's PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana and the Jan Dhan Yojana under which the poor could open zero balance accounts, Rawat said they were all meant to empower the rural populace and small and marginal farmers. As many as 25,000 farmers of the state were distributed interest-free loans worth around Rs 300 crore through the loan distribution programme joined by about 5,0000 farmers from the state physically as well as virtually. Interest-free loans of Rs 3 lakh ...one lakh equals 100,000... to each beneficiary and Rs 5 lakh to each farmer group are being provided for investment in agriculture and agriculture-related fields including fisheries, forestry, cultivation of medicinal plants, dairy and poultry activities.Thousands of farmers have been protesting at Delhi's borders with Haryana and Uttar Pradesh demanding the rollback of the Farmers'' Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Act, 2020, the Farmers (Empowerment and Protection) Agreement on Price Assurance and Farm Services Act, 2020 and the Essential Commodities (Amendment) Act, 2020. The protesting farmers have expressed apprehension that these laws would pave the way for the dismantling of the minimum support price system, leaving them at the "mercy" of big corporations. However, Switzerland makes more than cheese... the government has maintained that the new laws will bring farmers better opportunities and usher in new technologies in agriculture. Chakka jam: No untoward incident, but farmers block several highways Photos can be seen of the non-untoward incident at the link. [OneIndia] The farmers have closed the highway in Haryana's Palwal as part of the Chakka Jam.Meanwhile the ADG of UP said that no untoward incident has taken place so far. We have got support from farmer organizations, with their cooperation and our effort no untoward incident has happened so far. |
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India-Pakistan | ||
India could change No First Use Nuclear Policy - Defence Minister | ||
2019-08-17 | ||
[NDTV] New Delhi: Union Defence Minister Rajnath Singh today underscored that India reserves the right to change its policy of 'No First Use', which has been the cornerstone of India's nuclear weapons policy for decades. The government firmly stands by its 'No First Use' policy but "what happens in the future will depend on the circumstances," the minister said at Pokhran in Rajasthan, the site of two nuclear tests by India. "Pokhran is the area which witnessed Atalji (former prime minister Atal Bihar Vajpayee's) firm resolve to make India a nuclear power and yet remain firmly committed to the doctrine of 'No First Use'. It is true that till now, India has strictly adhered to the 'No First Use' policy. What happens in the future depends on the circumstances," Rajnath Singh told reporters in Pokhran, where he attended the closing ceremony of the Army Scout Master competition in Pokhran. The ruling BJP's manifesto for the 2014 elections included a promise to "revise and update India's nuclear doctrine". But while campaigning for that election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had dismissed a question on scrapping the No First Use policy in an interview to news agency ANI. "No First Use was a great initiative of Atal Bihari Vajpayee - there is no compromise on that. We are very clear. No First Use is a reflection of our cultural inheritance," he had said in April 2014, on the verge of an election in which he stormed to power.
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India-Pakistan |
Stop abetting militancy, help in restoration of peace: Mehbooba to Pak |
2017-04-05 |
![]() Addressing an election rally in Dooru, Anantnag where her brother Tasaduq Hussain Mufti is contesting, Mehbooba appealed Pakistain to stop abetting militancy in Jammu and Kashmire so that peace is restored and dialogue is started. "It is my appeal to Pakistain that adopt the policy, you adopted during Vajpayee’s time that militancy is not to be supported, gun is not to be supported, help us in restoring peace. When peace is restored in Jammu and Kashmire, there will be talks here (with separatists) and there (with Pakistain) as well. Help us in restoring peace", the Chief Minister said. |
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India-Pakistan |
Hurriyat ready for talks |
2015-12-28 |
[Daily Excelsior] The moderate separatist group in Jammu and Kashmire today urged the top political brass of India and Pakistain to ensure that "rabble-rousers" in both countries are not allowed to vitiate the "atmosphere of peace" emerging after the recent thaw in Indo-Pak relations. The Hurriyat Conference headed by Mirwaiz Umar Farooq hoped that the leadership in both the countries will carry forward the grinding of the peace processor in a "bold way" and resolve all outstanding issues including Kashmire. It also said that it would not shy away from talks with the Government, adding that any dialogue should be "with an open mind and heart". Keenly watching the developments, Mirwaiz Farooq, who is also a Muslim religious head, feels that the Friday meeting of Prime Minister Narendra Modi with his Pak counterpart Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... in Lahore has given a fresh hope not only to people of the two nations but to the entire South Asian region. "I only hope that the process, which has been initiated after many speed breakers, gains momentum and both nations sit together and find solutions to all the outstanding issues including Kashmire by involving the Kashmiri people," the Mirwaiz said here. He, however, expressed apprehension that radical elements, who are inimical to peace in the region, would try and make desperate attempts to sabotage the grinding of the peace processor. "Both the Prime Ministers are democratically elected and have a strong mandate in their respective countries. If they are to carry forward a grinding of the peace processor and take historical steps, it is important that the process has broad support from the political opposition and general public in both countries. "Any party or group that stands in the way of attempts to achieve peace are enemies of the people of South Asia. The leadership in India and Pakistain should invite and involve all the stakeholders -- especially the people of Kashmire -- to contribute and be a part of this process. "The rabble-rousers should be reined in so that issues can be addressed and peace becomes the order of the day in the South Asian region," he said. When asked that certain separatists groups including his one time ally Syed Ali Shah Geelani were considered as hawks, the Mirwaiz said, "Everyone in Kashmire supports meaningful dialogue and engagement. My point is simple that we in the Hurriyat Conference believe that Kashmire is a political issue which needs to be resolved through dialogue " "We in Hurriyat Conference would like to walk an extra mile for ensuring that grinding of the peace processor can succeed. I have said it many times that we wish to see Kashmire as a bridge of friendship between India and Pakistain rather than a bone of contention," the Mirwaiz said. To a question whether the Hurriyat Conference was willing to talk to the central leadership, he said, "We have never shied away from dialogue aimed at addressing the Kashmire issue be it with India or Pakistain. "We held talks with the then Prime Ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh as well as Pervez Musharaf and even gave some suggestions in order to move forward. Hurriyat would not shy away from any serious process aimed at resolving the Kashmire issue involving all stakeholders" To a question about statements from Union Ministers that talks with Hurriyat would be held within Indian Constitution, the Mirwaiz claimed it was Vajpayee who spoke of holding unconditional talks under the ambit of 'insaniyat' and vowed that India "shall not traverse solely on the beaten track of the past". "Talks need to be held with an open mind and heart," the Mirwaiz said. (PTI) |
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-Obits- |
India mourns its former president and "missile man" |
2015-07-27 |
Kalam served as president for five years from 2002, enjoying the support of both the ruling BJP and the opposition Congress. Kalam was closely involved in the country's civilian space programme and military missile development efforts, earning him the sobriquet 'India's Missile Man'. He worked as a scientist and science administrator, mainly at the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) before he became president. He also played a pivotal technical and political role in India's Pokhran-II nuclear tests in 1998, shortly after the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government came to power. After his term, he returned to a life of education, writing, and public service. He received several prestigious awards, including the Bharat Ratna, India's highest civilian honor. The government is set to announce a national mourning of seven days. |
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India-Pakistan |
Geelani, Yasin Malik meet Pak envoy after India calls off talks |
2014-08-20 |
![]() Syed Geelani, a big shot of the 26-party Hurriyat Conference, and Jammu and Kashmire Liberation Front chief Yasin Malik ... ![]() met Pak high commissioner to India Abdul Basit, but it was not immediately clear what they spoke about. Basit met separatist leader Shabbir Shah on Monday, ignoring the Indian government's warning that doing so could jeopardise the foreign secretary-level talks that were planned for August 25. Speaking to news hounds before his meeting with Basit, Geelani criticised India's decision, saying it was undemocratic. "We have been visiting Pakistain embassy several times to hold talks," he said, referring to an almost two-decades-old practice of Kashmiri separatists holding dialogue with Pak officials, including during the tenure of the previous BJP-led government of Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee. "The issue of Jammu and Kashmire is an international issue and it should be solved. As long as promises made to us are not fulfilled, this issue will remain unsolved," Geelani said. India's move was seen as dampening expectations that the two countries would resume a tentative grinding of the peace processor under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who raised such hopes by inviting South Asian leaders, including his Pak counterpart Nawaz Sharif ... served two non-consecutive terms as prime minister, heads the Pakistain Moslem League (Nawaz). Noted for his spectacular corruption, the 1998 Pak nuclear test, border war with India, and for being tossed by General Musharraf... , to his inauguration in May. Following Monday's decision by New Delhi, that bonhomie is looking like a distant dream, prompting Washington to call the move "unfortunate." "It is unfortunate that planned talks between India and Pakistain have fallen through," US state department deputy spokesperson Marie Harf told news hounds after the cancelling of talks. |
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India-Pakistan |
Beyond the Nehruvian consensus |
2014-06-21 |
Through the long era of the "Nehruvian consensus", Indian policymakers enjoyed a favourite occupation: introspection. Every problem needed introspection. Every setback called for introspection. Every initiative required introspection. After over 60 years of introspection, we have policymakers who still advise — yes — further introspection. The new Indian government has laid the Nehruvian consensus to rest. Action and outcomes count. Introspection is fine. But too much of it can lead to sclerotic inertia. Can an outcome-focused government lose sight of first principles? The Nehruvian consensus had three guiding dictums: socialism, secularism and non-alignment. Socialism fell apart under Narasimha Rao, Manmohan Singh (when he was finance minister) and Atal Bihari Vajpayee. It was revived by Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh (when he was Prime Minister). Instead of growing the economy and then distributing its benefits inclusively, the Sonia Gandhi-Manmohan Singh government did the exact opposite. The fiscal crisis is the result of failed economic socialism. The Nehruvian consensus on secularism (introduced into the Constitution along with socialism by Indira Gandhi during the Emergency in 1976) descended into farce under Rajiv Gandhi following the Shah Bano case in 1985-86. Muslims have since become poorer than even Dalits. Communal polarization began not with LK Advani's rath yatra in 1990 but with Rajiv's terrible blunder over Shah Bano five years earlier. The third pillar of the Nehruvian consensus, non-alignment, fell with the Berlin wall 25 years ago. In a unipolar world dominated by the United States, strategic policy requires India to be a regional leader, not part of an amorphous non-aligned bloc. Jairam Ramesh recently compared Narendra Modi to Richard Nixon — the US President who opened up China to American blandishments at the height of the Cold War. Weaning China away from the Soviet Union into a position of equidistance with the US was achieved by both Nixon and Henry Kissinger. Can Modi do the same with China over Pakistan? Modi's visit to Bhutan was calibrated to achieve several key ends. Bhutan has conducted over 25 rounds of border talks with China since 1986. The next round of talks between the two countries is scheduled in July/August. India sought and got an assurance in Thimpu that vulnerable border areas in the north and the east will not be compromised during the China-Bhutan talks. India's own border dispute with China in Arunachal and Ladakh can then progress without unnecessary impediments. China's growing concern over Islamist militancy in its northwestern Xinjiang province is a lever India will use to focus Chinese minds on restraining terrorism bred in Pakistan's fertile jihadi soil. As events in Karachi have shown terrorism, like water, is fungible. It can drown its creators and damage its neighbours. China has no wish to allow further Islamist radicalization of Xinjiang, where Muslim Uighars speak a Turkic dialect. China earlier this week executed 13 terrorists for a series of attacks by Uighars in Xinjiang. The emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Greater Syria (ISIS) has further underscored the dangers Sunni jihadism poses to the world. ISIS was initially funded by wealthy individual donors in Sunni Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states to weaken Shia-majority Iran and Iraq (which is 60% Shia, 20% Sunni and 20% Kurd). Like all Frankensteins — including Pakistan's Tehreek-e-Taliban — ISIS has now become a menace to its sponsors. It could in future threaten the Saudi Wahhabi princelings and spread its brand of unspeakable brutality from the Middle-East to north-west India. ISIS will eventually be defeated by moderate Sunni rebel factions in Syria and Iraq once Iraq's blundering Shia prime minister Nouri al-Maliki gives minority Sunnis a role in his government. ISIS's lightning advance towards Baghdad has warned the world against allowing the culture of jihadism free rein. A rattlesnake has to be defanged before it spreads its poison. India has long punched below its geopolitical weight. A colonial inferiority complex, corrupt governments and chronic misgovernance since, especially, 2004 have eroded India's ability to influence events outside its own sphere. The new government must change that. How? The three Abrahamic religions — Christianity, Islam and Judaism — have been the fount of global conflict for centuries. India's post-Nehruvian consensus must deal with the embers of that conflict by evolving a robust strategic doctrine. A future article will expand on that and more. |
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India-Pakistan |
Narendra Modi's new NSA, Ajit Kumar Doval starts big, has bigger goals |
2014-05-29 |
NEW DELHI: Ajit Kumar Doval (69), Narendra Modi's national security advisor-designate, started big on his new job -- before the PM met his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif for a one-on-one meeting, he went through a background note prepared by Doval. People familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition they not be identified told ET that Doval, a former Intelligence Bureau chief, had worked closely with Modi's Principal Secretary Nripendra Misra over the weekend. Doval and Misra had worked out talking points to be taken up with various SAARC leaders. Talks with Pakistan were especially crucial and emphasis was on improving bilateral ties and delivering a firm message on terrorism. Getting the message right was the first major task for Doval, known for having a tough approach to terror. Doval's appointment was the first file Modi's principal secretary took to the PM. The PM signed the file in the morning. People familiar with the matter said Prime Minister Modi had met Doval three times before the government formation exercise was complete."They get along really well...and have same views on many critical security issues," one person said. "Modi expects Doval to give concrete shape to India's anti-terror and anti-Maoist strategy and streamline anti-terror and anti-Maoist operations," this person added. Doval will only be the second NSA after MK Narayanan to have a professional career in intelligence. Most NSAs such as Brajesh Mishra for Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and JN Dixit, Shyam Saran and SS Menon for Manmohan Singh, had foreign service backgrounds. And the foreign service is never used as cover for intelligence.~ In fact, Narayanan started as Singh's internal security advisor, and only took over NSA duties when Dixit passed away. An official in the PMO who spoke on the condition of anonymity said Modi may appoint a deputy NSA with a foreign service background. Among the names being considered should the post of deputy NSA be created is Hardeep Puri, retired IFS, who was India's man in the United Nations. Close observers of India's security apparatus and its talent level say Doval's career as a spymaster has been among the more successful in recent past. A 1968 batch IPS officer who spent virtually all his career in ![]() Doval retired in 2005 and was considered a certainty for NSA's job had BJP won in 2009 elections. The long wait for Doval between 2005 and 2014 was spent mostly in setting up the Vivekananda International Foundation, a Delhibased think tank with a centreright intellectual perspective. |
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India-Pakistan |
Thrashing defeat for Mayawati |
2012-03-07 |
[Bangla Daily Star] ![]() SP dethroned Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati by getting an absolute majority by comfortably crossing the required 202-mark in the 403 member House. The SP has won 224 seats. Mayawati was relegated to the second position ending up close to 80 seats. Indian ruling Congress suffered a heavy blow as it failed to improve strength in the politically most crucial state of Uttar Pradesh and regain governance in Punjab. The party also lost power in Goa, our New Delhi correspondent Pallab Bhattacharya adds. The only relief for Congress is its emphatic victory in northeastern state of Manipur where it retained power for the third consecutive term. The Congress, which was hoping to do well after Rahul Gandhi's extensive campaigning in 207 constituencies, improved its previous tally of 22 seats by winning 26 seats and was leading in another two. The BJP, which had 51 seats, has won 47. The polls were a mid-term popularity test for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government ahead of 2014 parliamentary elections and a first real appraisal of Rahul Gandhi viewed by many as the future Prime Minister of India. "I stood in front, so it is my responsibility," 41-year-old Rahul told news hounds as he conceded defeat. "All of us in the Congress party fought. We fought well but the result which came was not so good." Rahul, the scion of Nehru-Gandhi family, had led the party's charge in Uttar Pradesh in a bid to revive Congress in what constituted his biggest challenge yet in a state where it has been out of power for 22 years. The SP has crossed the half-way mark in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and looks all set to form the next government in the state. Earlier in the day, state unit president Akhilesh Yadav said party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav will be the chief minister. Akhilesh said the party's Parliamentary Board will meet tomorrow to decide on issues like staking claim before Governor BL Joshi to form the next government. "I have answered this question several times.... We all want netaji (Mulayam) as the chief minister," Akhilesh said seeking to put a lid on speculation that he would be the next chief minister of the state. Replying to questions on the possibility of SP seeking support of independent MLAs, the party's state unit chief said his party will not take support of "mafia". On possibility of removing statues of elephants (BSP's election symbol) as also of outgoing chief minister Mayawati, he said SP has already made it clear that the statues would not be removed. SP state president and star campaigner for the party Akhilesh Yadav said that after formation of the government, the first priority of the SP would be to provide relief to the farmers through loan waivers and improvement in power supply. He said the BSP got five years to develop the state but it squandered money on parks and stones. However, there's more than one way to stuff a chicken... he also said that SP will not touch dalit memorials built by Mayawati. "They will be safe." What seems to have gone in favour of SP is its image makeover by Akhilesh. Previous SP rule in 2003-07 was known for poor law and order but Akhilesh promised to change the order this time. While Mulayam worked to get back Mohammedans who were angry after he shook hands with Kalyan Singh in 2009, Akhilesh worked to woo different castes and communities. He was also able to attract youth. The BSP is expected to remain second despite a loss of over 100 seats in comparison to the 206 it got in 2007. Congress and BJP are likely to improve but are fighting for third and fourth place. Congress's ally RLD is also expected to increase its number, according to Times of India. SP seems to be getting support across the state and all castes and communities, while BSP has suffered losses everywhere but seems to have retained its Dalit base. However, there's more than one way to stuff a chicken... Mayawati's social engineering failed as Brahmins and Mohammedans do not seem to have vote for BSP in large number as they did in 2007. Congress and BJP seem to have has excelled in some pockets of UP. While celebrations have begun in SP head quarters in Lucknow, an eerie silence prevailed in BSP head office and gates were closed for visitors. Disappointment was palpable in Congress office, whereas BJP camp was hopeful of getting more than 100 seats, double of what it got in 2007. Reacting to result trends, SP general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav said that people have voted against five years of misrule in UP. He said SP is gaining because it took up public cause for five years while sitting in opposition. UP Congress President Rita Bahugana Joshi said that though her party does not seems to be doing well, it would improve its tally. She said there is a strong anti-incumbency wave against Mayawati regime. Congress leader Rajiv Shukla said that Rahul Gandhi created a favourable atmosphere for the party through his work and campaign in UP. But, he said, party could not convert it into seats because of absence of party cadre at the ground level. He claimed that in any case Congress would emerge as key player in UP. BJP national vice president and candidate from Lucknow East Kalraj Mishra said that party would do better than 2007. He admitted that induction of sacked BSP minister Babu Singh Kushwaha, who is prime accused in NRHM scam and has been locked away by CBI, damaged BJP's prospect upto some extent in UP. The BJP has received a strong drubbing in Lucknow, which used to be its stronghold for long. The party has lost in Lucknow constituency for the first time since 1991. This was the first elections in which former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee was not in the picture. And this resulted in crushing defeat for the party. The BJP also lost in the rural areas of Lucknow. It was in a miserable state at the start of election but entry of fire brand Hindutava leader Uma Bharti galvanised cadre and brought party back in contest. BJP was also able to polarise votes on communal lines at few places on the issue of Mohammedan quota. |
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India-Pakistan | |
BJP seeks explanation of Pak's role in IHK violence | |
2010-07-10 | |
Indian opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Friday asked the union government to explain the role of Pakistan in the latest violence in Indian-held Kashmir (IHK) since Islamabad had promised to curb all anti-Indian activities on its soil during the latest bilateral talks held between the two nuclear-armed rivals.
Earlier, the BJP had said the IHK situation was the result of a policy of "competitive communalism" being pursued by the two major political parties in the state- the opposition PDP and the ruling National Conference. "The tense situation is the result of the politics of 'competitive communalism' being pursued by both the PDP and the National Conference, and due to no timely action being taken by the union government," the BJP leader said. | |
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India-Pakistan |
Indias Terror Stance Vexes Obama Amid Voter Ire at Pakistan |
2009-02-24 |
Indias 670 million voters may be about to set back President Barack Obamas campaign against Islamic militancy in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Indias ruling Congress Party, which heeded U.S. calls to avoid threatening its neighbor after Novembers Mumbai terrorist attack, is heading for elections that might push it from office. The opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, which accuses Congress of a soft approach toward terrorism, says India should consider blockading Pakistans main port and severing ties unless the government extradites 20 suspected militants. A less cooperative India would hamper Obamas effort to keep Pakistans army focused on fighting the Taliban and other guerrillas along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. The BJP is more hard-line now than when it was in power, says Gareth Price, head of the Asia program at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London. Theres no question they would increase the pressure on Pakistan, and that would complicate matters for the Obama administration. The likeliest outcome, he says, may be a weak coalition government led by one of the two large parties and including some of Indias burgeoning small parties. This month, Pakistan ceded effective control of the Swat Valley, 250 kilometers (155 miles) northwest of Islamabad, in a truce with local Taliban. The Talibans gains threaten to further destabilize Afghan President Hamid Karzai and diminish pressure on al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, whos believed to be hiding in the region. The U.S. special envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, visited all three countries last week to, in his words, listen and learn. Holbrooke said last week on PBSs NewsHour program that the administration was troubled and confused by the truce in Swat. Meanwhile, U.S. officials have criticized Karzais government, which Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said last month is plagued by limited capacity and widespread corruption. Obama on Feb. 18 ordered 17,000 more U.S. troops into Afghanistan as a first step in a new strategy likely to be unveiled late next month. By then, Indias election will be in full swing: Voting in the worlds most populous democracy is to take place in several phases and must be completed by May. Congress enters the campaign without history on its side: No ruling party has won re-election after serving a full term since Indira Gandhi led Congress to victory in 1971. Since the start of 2007, the party had lost ground in nine of 11 state elections, before winning three out of six late last year. It isnt even clear wholl lead the party. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, 76, was hospitalized last month for cardiac bypass surgery and had to reduce his workload. If he isnt able to carry the party banner, the succession is murky. Party leader Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born widow of assassinated Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, has declined to assume a direct role in government. Congress hasnt said whether it will name her 34-year-old son, Rahul, to lead the party their family has dominated since India won its independence six decades ago. Rahul Gandhi is not ready, political scientist and commentator Harish Khare wrote in the Hindu, a national newspaper, on Jan. 30. Congress, he said, should avoid pitchforking the young man into the race. The campaign comes at a time when the global recession has crippled Indian exports, cutting growth in Asias third-largest economy to its slowest pace since 2003. India has lost 1 million jobs, the government said Jan. 29, and companies such as Bangalore-based Gokaldas Exports Ltd., the countrys largest clothing exporter, predict more firings. Meanwhile, an accounting scandal at Satyam Computer Services Ltd. has undermined Indias appeal to foreign investors. Indias benchmark Sensex stock index tumbled 50 percent in the past year, led by declines in Tata Motors Ltd. and property developer DLF Ltd. The rupee fell 24 percent against the dollar in the same period. The economy is the key to a very tough fight for Congress, says Mahesh Rangarajan, a political analyst at Delhi University. A nationwide poll last week by Indias CNN-IBN television network found 32 percent of respondents named the economy as the main election issue, compared with 21 percent who cited security and terrorism. No margin of error was given. India, with a population of 1.1 billion, will elect its lower house of parliament for a five-year term. Thirty-seven parties sit in the current chamber; since the early 1990s, governments have been coalitions headed by Congress or its main rival, the BJP, with smaller parties playing an increasing role. The BJP, which draws support from groups seeking to make India a more overtly Hindu state, criticized Congresss patience with Pakistan following the Mumbai attacks, which killed 164 people. It suggested a naval blockade of Karachi, Pakistans largest city, and on Feb. 8 urged Congress to consider breaking off all trade, transport, tourism and cultural ties. No improvement in India-Pakistan ties is likely during a three-month election season because of political pressures, says Lisa Curtis, a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a research institute in Washington. It will probably be more difficult if the BJP wins to get back to an Indo-Pakistan dialogue, but I dont think its impossible, Curtis says. Still, the BJP, headed by L.K. Advani, 81, might not bring a radical departure from Congresss foreign policy. While the BJP-led government of then-Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee mobilized Indian troops against Pakistan after a 2001 guerrilla attack on Indias parliament, it later opened a process of detente with Pakistans then-ruler, General Pervez Musharraf. Under a BJP government, theres no question the rhetoric and language will be much tougher and aggressive, but it will just be rhetoric, says Olivier Louis, head of the India and South Asia program at IFRI, the French Institute for International Affairs in Paris. The election probably will sustain the growth of smaller parties rooted in the ethnic and linguistic groups that dominate many of Indias 28 states, says Walter Andersen, a retired State Department India specialist who heads the South Asia Studies Program at the School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. Rangarajan says the unknown quantity is the socialist- leaning Bahujan Samaj Party, which aims to mobilize minority and lower-caste groups. It swept aside Congress and other parties in Uttar Pradesh, Indias most populous state, in 2007. With all parties seeking votes by showing their readiness to get tough on terrorism, the biggest challenge to the Obama administrations calls for moderation would be another attack similar to Mumbai, says Vikram Sood, a former chief of Indias main intelligence agency, the Research and Analysis Wing. In such a case, India would have to make at least a symbolic strike on Pakistani targets, Sood said in an interview. In such a case, Clinton should go to Islamabad and tell them to quietly take whats coming. |
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