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Africa North

A New Slogan: Want to Try It?

2010-04-17

[Asharq al-Aswat] A news item, published in this paper, stated that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt is considering changing its famous slogan 'Islam is the solution' as a precaution against obstacles that it might face from the government, especially as articles within the constitution emphasise the danger of practicing politics based on religion. The news item adds that the Muslim Brotherhood is currently looking into the idea of adopting other slogans instead of or as well as 'Islam is the solution.' According to the news item, the Muslim Brotherhood said that "this slogan caused there to be many legal and political reservations." Muslim Brotherhood students at Egyptian universities had anticipated the MB's official idea or to be more specific, the MB's new position by using an alternative slogan, 'we hope for the best for Egypt' during the university student elections. They argued, as the news item indicates, that they coined that new slogan to alleviate security pressures. What was the position of the reformist figure in the Brotherhood leadership hierarchy, Essam al Eryan, towards this new youthful slogan? Al Eryan "decreed" that the new student slogan does not contradict the most cherished and sacred slogan of the Muslim Brotherhood, 'Islam is the solution.' He believes that the new slogan is part of a larger and more comprehensive slogan, namely, 'Islam is the solution.' It doesn't stop there. The Brotherhood mediator amazed us even further by stating that "every stage requires a different slogan." Al Eryan maintained that the slogan 'Islam is the solution' represents the identity of the Muslim Brotherhood. Of course the Muslim Brotherhood has its own way of interpreting this flagrant religious slogan and normalizing it within the civil state and I am talking about the constitution here not the regime because the MB is feeling this constitutional dilemma that lies at the core of these slogans and it came up with the following solution or ploy: whoever says that the 'Islam is the solution' slogan contradicts the constitution of the Egyptian state is wrong. These are the words of former Muslim Brotherhood Deputy Chairman Mohammed Habib. He believes that rejecting this slogan means rejecting the Egyptian constitution, the second article of which states that Islam is the official state religion. Habib says that those who oppose the slogan 'Islam is the solution' are actually "opposing and protesting the public order of the state." But, Mohammed Hassan Shaban, the journalist who wrote this news item, cleverly pointed out that Habib did not refer to the fifth clause of the constitution that he cited from that outlaws practicing politics based on religion. This controversy will never end; the theorists and politicians of the Muslim Brotherhood will always find a way out; they will always try verbal, emotional and constitutional tricks as well. This is not unusual with the Muslim Brotherhood and other bodies. We all remember how the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq dropped the word 'revolution' and opted for the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq. The then party leader Abdul Aziz al Hakim defended that change after securing enough votes for his party in the Iraqi parliament. We also recall how the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait, after the war of liberation in 1991, called itself the Islamic Constitutional Movement in order to ride the wave of increasing Kuwaiti patriotism and demanding a return to the constitution and parliamentary life in Kuwait after the invasion. Also in Iraq today, the State of Law Coalition headed by Nouri al Maliki is nothing but a façade for the fundamentalist Dawaa Party. Let us return to Egypt; perhaps all this can be understood in light of the vehemence of political rivalry for power and rule in Egypt, especially as parliamentary elections are drawing closer. The war of words intensifies and arguments are being debated by rivals in a climate of electoral and political conflict. My goal is not to recommend one Arab political party over another in Egypt or elsewhere as that is another topic altogether. Rather, the aim here is to reflect specifically on this clear "flexibility" in changing and altering slogans that are meant to be sacred and irrevocable, as their guardians have always claimed. What the Muslim Brotherhood is doing in Egypt and elsewhere is political manoeuvring and the person carrying out these manoeuvres is open to change and transformation. Even Essam al Eryan, in the middle of defending the Muslim Brotherhood's slogan change and its durability, acknowledged that there was flexibility and willingness towards change if the position of its rival, i.e. the Egyptian authorities, forces them to adopt that approach. If the authorities show tolerance, the Muslim Brotherhood would introduce their sacred slogan unabashed. But if the authorities show vigilance and strictness then the MB would search for another slogan that is suitable to that stage and its requirements, and does not negate the basis of the main slogan.

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Iraq

Al-Hakim kid succeeds pop in family business

2009-09-02

[Al Arabiya Latest] One of Iraq's main Shiite Muslim parties on Tuesday appointed the son of its leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim as his successor after his death last week, averting a potentially damaging public power struggle. Ammar al-Hakim had been groomed for some time to take over the influential Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (ISCI) from his father, who died in Tehran where he had been receiving treatment for lung cancer. The cleric was buried over the weekend in the holy Iraqi Shiite city of Najaf. His death cast fresh uncertainty over Iraqi politics at a time when alliances among Iraq's majority Shiites are shifting ahead of a parliamentary election in January, and when recent progress toward stability has been rocked by bomb attacks. "Voting for Ammar al-Hakim is normal because of the symbolism of his family name and the sacrifices that the family made," said ISCI lawmaker Nabil Ismail, who said Ammar al-Hakim had been picked by the party's advisory council.

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Iraq

Iraqi election hints of troubles for Shiite giant

2009-02-02

The biggest Shiite party in Iraq once appeared to hold all the political sway: control of the heartland, the backing of influential clerics and a foot in the government with ambitions to take full control. But the days of wide-open horizons could be soon ending for the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, and replaced by important shifts that could be welcomed in Washington and scorned in Tehran. The signs began to take shape Sunday with hints of the voter mood from provincial elections. The broad message _ built on Iraqi media projections and postelection interviews _ was that the eventual results would punish religious-leaning factions such as the Supreme Council that are blamed for stoking sectarian violence, and reward secular parties seen capable of holding Iraq's relative calm. The outcome of the provincial races will not directly effect Iraq's national policies or its balance between Washington's global power and Iran's regional muscle. But Shiite political trends are critically important in Iraq, where majority Shiites now hold sway after the fall of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime. "There is a backlash from Iraqis against sectarian and religious politics," said Mustafa al-Ani, an Iraqi political analyst based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Although official results from Saturday's provincial elections are likely still days away, the early outlines are humbling for The Supreme Council. The group had been considered a linchpin in Iraqi politics as a junior partner in the government that had near seamless political control in the Shiite south. Some forecasts point to widespread losses for the party across the main Shiite provinces. The blows could include embarrassing stumbles in the key city of Basra and the spiritual center of Najaf _ hailed as the future capital in the Supreme Council's dreams for an autonomous Shiite enclave. In their place, the big election winners appear to be allies of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, according to projections and interviews with political figures who spoke on condition of anonymity because official results are not posted. It's a vivid lesson in Iraq's fluid politics. A year ago, al-Maliki looked to be sinking. Shiite militiamen ruled cities such as Basra and parts of Baghdad and rockets were pouring into the protected Green Zone, which includes the U.S. Embassy and Iraq's parliament. Al-Maliki _ with apparent little advance coordination with the U.S. military _ struck back. An offensive broke the militia control in Basra and elsewhere in the south. His reputation turned around. And many voters appeared happy to reward his political backers in the elections for seats on provincial councils, which carry significant clout with authority over local business contracts, jobs and local security forces. "Al-Maliki ended the militiamen's reign of terror," said Faisal Hamadi, 58, after voting in Basra. "For this he deserves our vote." The Supreme Council, meanwhile, appeared to stagger under the weight of negative baggage. It was accused of failing to deliver improvements to public services in the south. Also, its deep ties to Iran began to rub against Iraqis' nationalist sentiments. The Supreme Council's leader, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, spent decades in Iran during Saddam's rule and was allowed an office-villa in downtown Tehran. After Saddam's fall, the Supreme Council was Iran's main political conduit into Iraq even though the group also developed ties with Washington. Iran now could face limits on its influence in the south with the Supreme Council forced into a coalition or second-tier status _ and also confront resistance from a stronger al-Maliki government seeking to curb Tehran's inroads. A Supreme Council lawmaker, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, acknowledged the election mood was against them. "We controlled most provinces in the south, so we were blamed for whatever went wrong there," he said. "The elections gave us an indication of what will happen in the general election late this year," said the analyst al-Ani. "Those who lost in this election have nearly a year to learn their lesson and change their strategy. They know now where the Iraqis stand."

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Iraq

Syria supports national reconciliation in Iraq-SANA

2008-08-01

(VOI) - Syrian Foreign Minister on Thursday stressed the importance of achieving national reconciliation among the Iraqi components to ensure fostering the country's unity, sovereignty and security according to the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA). Syria, where over 500 thousands Iraqi refugees are living, is accused by the U.S of harbouring and helping foreign fighters to enter Iraq and to launch attacks against U.S Iraqi forces. Syria denied the charges. "The deputy Chief of Supreme Islamic Council in Iraq Ammar Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, and Syrian FM Waleed al-Moallem emphasized the necessity of withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq," said a SANA website statement. "Al-Moallem and al-Hakim reviewed bilateral relations and ways to consolidate and develop them in addition to the latest developments in the Iraqi arena," it added. "Al-Hakim applauded Syrian's stance and its keenness on Iraq's national unity, sovereignty, security and stability and thanked it for hosting Iraqi refugees and bearing their enormous burden" it noted. On Wednesday, the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad received the Deputy Chairman of Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council Ammar Abdul Aziz AL-Hakim and held talks about cementing ties with Iraq. Al-Hakim noted "the current atmosphere cannot help sign a long security agreement", adding "what is being sought now is outlining the frame of relation between Iraq and the U.S. such as finding a protocol."

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Iraq

U.S.: 60 Insurgents Killed In Offensive

2008-01-15

BAGHDAD, Jan. 14 -- American and Iraqi troops have killed 60 Sunni insurgents and captured nearly 200 during a week-long offensive in northern Iraq against al-Qaeda in Iraq fighters, U.S. military officials said Monday. The announcement came on the same day that at least three Iraqi police officers were killed when a booby-trapped house exploded in the northern province of Diyala, underscoring the danger involved in trying to clear insurgents from their safe havens. The campaign in northern Iraq, known as Operation Iron Harvest, began last week with a major push to kill or capture members of al-Qaeda in Iraq, a homegrown Sunni insurgent group that U.S. officials believe is led by Arabs who have come to Iraq since the war began. But military officials in Diyala, the initial focus of the operation, were surprised that most of the insurgents were able to evade U.S. forces by either fleeing or hiding among the civilian population. Iraqi and American security forces are chasing the fighters to prevent them from establishing new bases of operation in other areas. "Now they are in a corner," said Lt. Gen. Abdul Kareem al-Rubaie, the commander of Iraqi military forces in Diyala. "The armed groups have withdrawn and are fleeing." The attack on the Iraqi police officers took place in the village of al-Abarra Abu Fayad, south of the provincial capital of Baqubah, where Sunni insurgents have fled, according to Rubaie. He said a house rigged with explosives blew up when Iraqi police went inside. Six police officers were wounded in addition to the three killed in the blast. Insurgents in Diyala, one of Iraq's most dangerous provinces, have frequently used booby-trapped homes to target U.S. troops. Six American soldiers and an Iraqi interpreter were killed in such a house last week during the offensive there. The U.S. military said in a statement that 193 "suspected extremists" have been detained and 79 weapons caches found since the four-province campaign began. The weapons stores included about 100 roadside bombs, more than 10,000 rounds of ammunition and more than 4,000 pounds of homemade explosives, the military said. Meanwhile, in Baghdad, Iraqi and U.S. officials raised hopes for political reconciliation among the various sects and parties. Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi, a Sunni, said the country's largest Sunni political bloc, the Iraqi Accordance Front, was prepared to return to the government if its demands, including the release of Sunni detainees from prison and better government benefits, were met. The group withdrew its ministers from the Shiite-led government last year to protest the lack of Sunni clout within the cabinet. After meeting with Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the leader of one of the largest Shiite groups in Iraq, Hashimi said that he hoped political leaders could "push forward the wheels of the political process." Also on Monday, the senior U.S. officials in Iraq issued their first statement about the passage Sunday of a law allowing Baath Party officials to return to government, the first of the political benchmarks set by the United States. "Passage of this law represents a signal achievement in that Iraqi political leaders have collectively chosen to reform a de-Baathification process that many regarded as flawed, unfair, and a roadblock to reconciliation," Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S commander in Iraq, and Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker said in a statement. "Ultimately the impact of this important legislative step will depend as much on the spirit of implementation as on the form of the legislation." The new law is an attempt by the Iraqi government to address the first decree issued by the Coalition Provisional Authority, the U.S.-led occupation administration installed after the 2003 invasion. That order banned many senior members of Saddam Hussein's Baath Party from serving in government and helped fuel the Sunni-led insurgency. Also in Baghdad, gunmen killed Amer Jawdat al-Naieb, an appellate judge and member of Iraq's judicial council, along with his driver, while he headed to work, police said. Special correspondents Zaid Sabah, K.I. Ibrahim, Saad al-Izzi and other Washington Post staff in Iraq contributed to this report.

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Iraq

Petraeus Outs Iranian Ambassador, Reaches Out to Iraqi Shiites

2007-10-08

Things are getting interesting over there! General David Petraeus's decision to out the Iranian ambassador to Iraq as a member of the Quds Force coincides with a new tribal outreach campaign aimed at prying Iraqi Shiites in the south from the grip of Iran's powerful security services. American and Iraqi forces and intelligence agencies in August began to send emissaries to southern Iraqi tribal sheiks in an effort to recruit a Shiite version of the Anbar Salvation Front, the Sunni tribal chieftains who aligned themselves against Al Qaeda. In this case, however, the plan is aimed largely at turning the local population in five key cities — Basra, Karbala, Kut, Najaf, and Nasiriyah — against Iran's Revolutionary Guard and the militias that the guard largely controls. In the last two months in particular, General Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, has blamed a good deal of the violence in Iraq on Iranian meddling. He went much further yesterday, telling CNN that the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, was a member of the country's Quds Force, the elite terrorist training arm of the Revolutionary Guard. With the new information now confirmed by General Petraeus, any future talks with the Iranians over their role in fueling the insurgency in Iraq are unlikely. The Quds Force not only is implicated in planning attacks on American soldiers, it also is "implicated in the assassination of some governors in the southern provinces," the general said. He added that there was no chance he would return the Iranians captured in operations since January, a key demand of Mr. Qomi. The New York Sun reported in April that those Iranians are being held in jails run both by Iraq's Sunni intelligence service and the American military. In yesterday's interview, the general said there was no debate that the men captured were members of the Quds Force. Of the negotiations with Iran, General Petraeus said America was in "show-me mode." A number of Iraqi leaders have traveled to Tehran and asked that the Iranians "stop the lethal assistance," he said. "There have been sub-ambassadorial meetings, as well. And there have been assurances in return, actually from Iran to Iraqi leaders, and we are waiting to see if those assurances bear fruit." The outreach effort began in August, a military officer said yesterday, and the CIA, the Army, and the Iraqi security agencies are coordinating meetings with local tribal leaders. "In a lot of cases, we are gauging interest," the officer, who requested anonymity, said. Any effort like this is not likely to show signs of success until early next year, he added. Another component of the southern tribal outreach is to draw elements of Moqtada al-Sadr's militia, the Mahdi Army, into the government, separating those elements of the militia believed to be controlled by members of the Revolutionary Guard. A militia affiliated with the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council, known as the Badr Brigade, was trained by the Revolutionary Guard when Iran harbored the organization before the war. However, the leader of the SIIC, Ayatollah Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, announced in June that his organization no longer accepted the Shiite doctrine associated with Iran's Islamic revolution called the Rule of Jurisprudence, or the notion that Shiite clerics should also wield political power in Shiite states. After his declaration, Ayatollah Hakim flew to Iran for surgery, leading some American analysts to doubt the sincerity of the group's conversion. The tribal outreach campaign with the Shiites is meant in part to marginalize the Shiite theology of the leader of the 1979 Iranian revolution, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the military officer said. "We are trying to make the case that he was an infidel," he said.

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Iraq

Analysis of Shi'ite on Shi'ite Violence

2007-10-07

Iraq's most powerful Shiite militia planned and carried out a bloody attack on two of Shiite Islam's holiest shrines in the southern city of Karbala in late August, violence that exposed deep divisions within the Shiite community, according to documents, police and lawmakers involved in investigating the violence. The fallout from the attack could further splinter Iraq's ruling political alliance and diminish U.S. prospects for bringing stability to Iraq. It also raises troubling questions about the complicity of Iraqi officials with violent militiamen. The street fighting that broke out in Karbala on Aug. 28 demonstrated that while an escalation of U.S. troops has lessened violence in Baghdad and western Iraq, another conflict is brewing in the south. With British soldiers accelerating their departure from the region, the south is emerging as one of the most vulnerable regions of Iraq. There is some new news here, really. The battle that day was instigated by members of the Mahdi Army, the militia led by Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, when its gunmen fired rocket-propelled grenades and rifles from neighboring rooftops down into a crowd of thousands of pilgrims who had gathered between the Imam Hussein and Imam Abbas shrines, according to Karbala police investigative documents and Iraqi officials. Government officials loyal to Sadr and Mahdi Army members denied they were responsible for the violence. But the trauma transcended the death toll, exposing deep rivalries among police, militiamen, religious leaders and the politicians vying for supremacy. More than 580 suspects were rounded up. The killings sparked Sadr's public decision to freeze Mahdi Army operations -- a position welcomed by U.S. military commanders. And yet, somehow, this is a bad thing? The details of the violence that day were contested from the beginning. Witnesses described it as clashes between the Mahdi Army and shrine guards, believed to be loyal to the Badr Organization, the armed wing of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, a prominent Shiite political party. The Badr group also denied it was to blame. On Saturday, in an apparent attempt to calm the Shiite south, the leaders of the two militias, Sadr and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, signed a peace agreement and pledged to work together to avoid bloodshed and confrontation. The document, shown on Iraqi television, stated the need for "protecting and respecting Iraqi blood regardless of the situation or sect," as well as maintaining "friendly feelings and to avoid hatred." Liwa Smaysim, a top political aide to Sadr, said the pact involved creating joint committees to mediate disputes. The Muslim holy month of Ramadan, typically a time for forgiving grievances, played a role in the timing of the pact, he said. Instead of splodydoping during Ramadan, they forgive grievances? Now that's news! Much more at link.

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Iraq

Iraqi Shi'ite leaders sign deal to curb violence

2007-10-06

By Mariam Karouny BAGHDAD (Rooters) - Iraq's two most powerful Shi'ite leaders have signed their first written agreement, pledging to prevent bloodshed by working together to avoid confrontation, Iraqi officials said on Saturday. Supporters of Moqtada al-Sadr and Abdul Aziz al-Hakim's Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), the two biggest Shi'ite blocs in parliament, are locked in a power struggle for control of towns and cities in the predominantly Shi'ite south. The factions have clashed more often this year throughout the south, areas where U.S. forces have little or no presence. Political analysts fear the struggle for dominance will intensify ahead of provincial elections expected next year. "Sayyed Abdul Aziz al Hakim and Sayyed Moqtada al-Sadr have agreed on the necessity of preserving and respecting Iraqi blood under any condition," said the agreement signed by Hakim and Sadr, which was seen by Reuters. Shi'ite officials said the deal was aimed at preventing clashes similar to those in Kerbala, southwest of the capital, in August. At least 52 people were killed when Sadr's Mehdi Army clashed with police linked to Hakim's rival Shi'ite political movement, the SIIC and its Badr Organisation. The police in many southern towns are seen to be loyal to Badr. Two SIIC governors of southern provinces were assassinated in August. Last month, the political movement loyal to Sadr in parliament pulled out of Prime Minister Nuri al Maliki's United Alliance in which it has the same number of seats as Hakim's grouping. Sadr suspended armed action by the Mehdi Army for up to six months after the Kerbala violence. His aides have said the order was to let him weed out rogue elements in the militia. The agreement between Hakim and Sadr recommended forming committees in all provinces to bring the two groups' views together and to manage problems. "This deal could be seen as the first step towards preventing clashes and fighting between the two groups, specially after the Sadrists pulled out of the Alliance," a Shi'ite official in the Alliance told Rooters.

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Iraq

Iraq leaders to meet to solve political crisis

2007-07-24

BAGHDAD - Iraq’s top five political leaders are due to hold a summit this week in an attempt to end a political crisis which has paralyzed the country for months, officials said on Monday. They told Reuters that Kurdish, Sunni Arab and Shi’ite leaders acknowledge the political impasse and may meet on Friday. “They will be holding marathon meetings. So far we have the 27th as the date but it is yet to be confirmed,” a senior government official told Reuters. The summit will bring together President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and Sunni Vice President Tareq al-Hashemi. It will also involve Masoud Barzani, president of Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and a top aide of powerful Shi’ite leader Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. The government official said the summit may also be extended to include other key figures such as former interim prime minister Iyad Allawi. The leaders are expected to discuss various issues, including how to agree on amending the constitution. The identity of the disputed oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk could also be on the agenda, officials said. Maliki’s government is under mounting pressure to meet benchmarks set by Washington to end sectarian violence and push for economic and political reforms. But political wrangling among its factions has left it weak and shaky. Sunni Arab ministers in the government have stopped attending cabinet meetings, while Shi’ite ministers loyal to fiery cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have left the government. “The situation is very serious and the country is deadlocked, so they need to meet to move things forward,” said a senior Shi’ite official, speaking on condition of anonymity.

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Iraq

Plan B For Iraq: Winning Dirty

2007-05-11

By Mort Kondracke Without prejudging whether President Bush's "surge" policy will work, the administration and its critics ought to be seriously thinking about a Plan B, the "80 percent solution" - also known as "winning dirty." Right now, the administration is committed to building a unified, reconciled, multisectarian Iraq - "winning clean." Most Democrats say that's what they want, too. But it may not be possible. The 80 percent alternative involves accepting rule by Shiites and Kurds, allowing them to violently suppress Sunni resistance and making sure that Shiites friendly to the United States emerge victorious. No one has publicly advocated this Plan B, and I know of only one Member of Congress who backs it - and he wants to stay anonymous. But he argues persuasively that it's the best alternative available if Bush's surge fails. Winning will be dirty because it will allow the Shiite-dominated Iraqi military and some Shiite militias to decimate the Sunni insurgency. There likely will be ethnic cleansing, atrocities against civilians and massive refugee flows. On the other hand, as Bush's critics point out, bloody civil war is the reality in Iraq right now. U.S. troops are standing in the middle of it and so far cannot stop either Shiites from killing Sunnis or Sunnis from killing Shiites. Winning dirty would involve taking sides in the civil war - backing the Shiite-dominated elected government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and ensuring that he and his allies prevail over both the Sunni insurgency and his Shiite adversary Muqtada al-Sadr, who's now Iran's candidate to rule Iraq. Shiites make up 60 percent of the Iraqi population, so Shiite domination of the government is inevitable and a democratic outcome. The United States also has good relations with Iraq's Kurdish minority, 20 percent of the population, and would want to cement it by semipermanently stationing U.S. troops in Northern Iraq to ward off the possibility of a Turkish invasion. Ever since the toppling of Saddam Hussein, Sunnis - representing 20 percent of the population - have been the core of armed resistance to the U.S. and the Iraqi government. The insurgency consists mainly of ex-Saddam supporters and Sunni nationalists, both eager to return to power, and of jihadists anxious to sow chaos, humiliate the United States and create a safe zone for al-Qaida operations throughout the Middle East. Bush wants to establish Iraq as a model representative democracy for the Middle East, but that's proved impossible so far - partly because of the Sunni insurgencies, partly because of Shiites' reluctance to compromise with their former oppressors and partly because al-Qaida succeeded in triggering a civil war. Bush's troop surge - along with Gen. David Petraeus' shift of military strategy - is designed to suppress the civil war long enough for Iraqi military forces to be able to maintain even handed order on their own and for Sunni, Kurdish and Shiite politicians to agree to share power and resources. The new strategy deserves a chance, but so far civilian casualties are not down, progress on political reconciliation is glacial, and U.S. casualties have increased significantly. As a result, political patience in the United States is running down. If Petraeus cannot show dramatic progress by September, Republicans worried about re-election are likely to demand a U.S. withdrawal, joining Democrats who have demanded it for years. Prudence calls for preparation of a Plan B. The withdrawal policy advocated by most Democrats virtually guarantees catastrophic ethnic cleansing - but without any guarantee that a government friendly to the United States would emerge. Almost certainly, Shiites will dominate Iraq because they outnumber Sunnis three to one. But the United States would get no credit for helping the Shiites win. In fact, America's credibility would suffer because it abandoned its mission. And, there is no guarantee that al-Sadr - currently residing in Iran and resting his militias - would not emerge as the victor in a power struggle with al-Maliki's Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, led by Abdul Aziz al-Hakim. Iran formerly backed the SCIRI and its Badr Brigades but recently switched allegiances - foolishly, my Congressional source contends - to al-Sadr, who's regarded by other Shiites as young, volatile and unreliable. Under a win dirty strategy, the United States would have to back al-Maliki and the Badr Brigades in their eventual showdown with al-Sadr. It also would have to help Jordan and Saudi Arabia care for a surge in Sunni refugees, possibly 1 million to 2 million joining an equal number who already have fled. Sunnis will suffer under a winning dirty strategy, no question, but so far they've refused to accept that they're a minority. They will have to do so eventually, one way or another. And, eventually, Iraq will achieve political equilibrium. Civil wars do end. The losers lose and have to knuckle under. As my Congressional source says, "every civil war is a political struggle. The center of this struggle is for control of the Shiite community. Wherever the Shiites go, is where Iraq will go. So, the quicker we back the winning side, the quicker the war ends. ... Winning dirty isn't attractive, but it sure beats losing."

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International-UN-NGOs

Pasdaran Top Official Still Missing

2007-03-16

Tehran, 16 March (AKI) - A high official with Iran's Revolutionary Guard, the Pasdaran, is still missing after three weeks and the central command of the Pasdaran are convinced US forces are detaining him, reports said Friday. Mohammad Mohsen Shirazi, a deputy commander with the Pasdaran's special corps charged with missions outside the country, the Quds Brigade, had allegedly been posted in Iraq on a secret mission. So you're admitting to a act of war? Unconfirmed reports on 27 February quoted US forces as saying that Shirazi, who is suspected of having aided Shiite insurgents on Iran's behalf, was allegedly arrested in Baghdad in the home of top Shiite politician Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). So I'm guessing this confirms it, huh? Washington accuses Iran of arming Shiite insurgents in Iraq who are fighting against US-led foreign troops in Iraq.

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Iraq

Iran: Pasdaran Commander Arrested In Iraq, Reports

2007-02-28

US forces have arrested in Iraq a commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard (Pasdaran)'s Quds Brigade, Mohsen Shirazi, reports said on Tuesday quoting US sources. Shirazi is suspected of having aided Shiite insurgents on Iran's behalf. Shirazi was allegedly arrested in Baghdad in the home of top Shiite politician Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Washington accuses Iran of arming Shiite insurgents in Iraq who are fighting against US-led foreign troops in Iraq.

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