Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Bogdan Kish
[REGNUM] Early parliamentary elections will take place in Serbia on December 17. The position of the current government is strong, but the pro-Western opposition, not without outside help, intends to seriously compete for the majority in parliament and turn Belgrade towards the West.
Due to its political position of neutrality and geographical location, Serbia is forced to constantly balance between the United States and the EU on the one hand, and Russia and China on the other. Therefore, elections here have always attracted increased attention from both the West and the East. However, this year the early parliamentary elections are attracting increased interest, primarily in Brussels.
Against the background of the failed Ukrainian “counter-offensive”, the reduction of financial and military-technical assistance to Kyiv, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the economic crisis, the European Union is extremely interested in “stability” in the Balkans. By which is meant complete subordination to Brussels.
Serbia has recently been a bone in the throat for the EU and the US, as it does not recognize Kosovo even under pressure and does not impose anti-Russian sanctions. Considering that both the United States and the EU are facing elections in 2024, the West is trying to close the “Serbian issue” as soon as possible.
For the Western average, the presidential elections in the States and the elections to the European Parliament are more important than affairs “on the periphery of Europe,” so European and American politicians are trying to earn at least some political points by “settling” the situation in Serbia. They understand the complexity of the situation in Belgrade and are doing everything possible to prevent a united pro-Western coalition from coming to power.
BETS ON VICTORY
Predicting election results under such foreign political pressure and with a large number of domestic political problems is a thankless task. That is why, in general, it was not “independent,” pro-government or near-state structures that took up the task of compiling forecasts and figures, but bookmakers.
In Serbia, this is more than just entertainment and a profitable business, it is a kind of state within a state. Therefore, in general, there is practically no doubt in their assessment of the approximate prospects of political forces.
According to a joint analysis of the portal 192.rs and the bookmaker MeridianBet, the current government, represented by the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS), has the greatest chances of winning and forming a majority in parliament. The SNA, led by Defense Minister Milos Vucevic , is projected to win approximately 42.5% of the vote.
Next comes the pro-Western coalition “Serbia against violence” (SPN), led by Miroslav Aleksic - 21.3%. Third place goes to the coalition led by the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) of Foreign Minister Ivica Dacic - 10.2%. The supposedly pro-Russian coalition, consisting of the Dveri and Zavetnica parties ( Boško Obradović and Milica Đurđević ), will receive approximately 6.2% of the vote. They are followed by the NADA coalition with Milos Jovanovic - 5.4%.
Vuk Jeremic's People's Party and the coalition led by ex-President Boris Tadic will each gain less than 3%.
At the same time, the population is not very interested in the current elections. Bookmakers for the parliamentary elections are predicting turnout at 53.5%, a drop from the 2022 election, when it was 58.6%.
As practice shows, over the past 10 years, not a single party has been able to compete with the coalition of the SNS and the Union of Right Forces. Judging by the first forecasts, we should not expect any big changes and the power in Serbia will not change.
Yes, the position of the Serbian Progressive Party has deteriorated greatly in recent years, but it still remains the most popular in the country. Moreover, the SNS, as has happened more than once, will be able to agree with the Socialist Party of Serbia on the formation of a majority, especially against the backdrop of the strengthening position of the pro-Western opposition “Serbia against violence.” At the same time, the SPN will obviously have problems forming a coalition after the elections.
The pro-Russian opposition, represented by the Dveri and Zavetnitsa parties, is not ready to move towards rapprochement with pro-Western forces because of their position on Kosovo and Metohija, Russia and NATO. However, these forces have neither the unity, nor the influence, nor the great trust of citizens to claim a serious result. Therefore, for them, third or fourth place in the elections and getting into parliament will be considered a success.
For Serbia Against Violence, the Serbs from Republika Srpska, located in Bosnia, are a big problem. Their leader Milorad Dodik openly called for voting against the pro-Western coalition, since it would first recognize the “genocide” in Srebrenica and turn away from Banja Luka to please the West.
“The most important thing for Republika Srpska is that Serbia remains strong, and in order to remain strong, it must not fall into the hands of auto chauvinists ,” he said. According to Dodik, there are many people on the list of this coalition who believe that the Republika Srpska should not exist, therefore they are not political opponents, but enemies.
Considering that many residents of Republika Srpska, including the top leadership of the entity, have Serbian passports, they will provide a large number of votes to other parties. The situation is similar with the Serbs in Montenegro. They oppose the SPN because this coalition will forget about the Serbian diaspora, which has been struggling for existence for 30 years against the backdrop of ever-increasing Serbophobia.
GROSCHEL COMMISSION
The greatest interest in the elections in Serbia is shown by Western embassies and directly by the United States and Germany. The duty speaker on the topic of elections is US Ambassador to Serbia Christopher Hill , who since the 90s of the last century has been seen in ties with Albanian militants from the terrorist Kosovo Liberation Army. Hill said being ambassador to Serbia during an election campaign is a special challenge, but he is not interested in interfering in the election process.
At the same time, the American ambassador regularly makes anti-Russian statements and calls on Serbia to focus on cooperation with the West: “It is completely unrealistic to maintain good relations with Moscow, which has created huge problems and thereby made it clear to everyone what should be done . ”
The EU also decided that it was impossible to remain on the sidelines. Therefore, Brussels decided to send a commission to Serbia to monitor the elections. An eight-member European Parliament delegation, led by Slovenian Klemen Grošelj , will ensure a “celebration of democracy.”
At the same time, Groschel is an extremely interesting character.
The Slovenian had previously strongly opposed early parliamentary elections and stated that they would be rigged in favor of the current government. According to him, the mission in Serbia will be “listening, observing, holding many meetings with all stakeholders and civil society.”
True, the head of the European delegation, even before his election to this position, “listened and observed” and even met with representatives of the Serbian opposition. He also has his own favorites on the Serbian political landscape. Groshel recently visited Belgrade, met with the Free Citizens Movement and openly supported this party.
“DSG is a political force that stands for a modern and democratic Serbia, which should become a full member of the European Union. They have my full support,” Groschel noted in September.
A politician from Slovenia previously stated that the American and European policy of “appeasing Vucic” is to blame for the situation in Serbia. The US and EU allegedly turned a blind eye to his “undemocratic domestic political steps” in exchange for resolving the issue of relations with Kosovo. He called Serbia “ a country completely captured by the ruling regime, in which there are not the slightest conditions for any criticism of the government either from the opposition or from the media.”
Obviously, it would be a stretch to call Groschel objective. Moreover, in addition to the Slovenian, the delegation will include the European Parliament rapporteur on Serbia, Vladimir Bilchik, as well as Andreas Schieder , who said before the elections in Montenegro that “our friend Milo Djukanovic is the best presidential candidate.”
The West gave the Albanians carte blanche to terrorize the Kosovo Serbs
It is especially interesting that the German Viola von Cramon , one of the main critics of Serbia and a member of the German parliament from the Greens, is mentioned as one of the members of the commission . This party, in the midst of the election campaign, hosted representatives of the “Serbia against violence” list in the Bundestag at a rally entitled “Serbia before the elections - between autocracy and democratic awakening.”
Thus, “Serbia against violence” will have the strongest support not only from Western countries, but also from a number of Western and pro-Western media in Serbia and the region.
Regardless of the outcome of the elections, enormous pressure will be exerted on the current government, and any pro-Serbian (pro-Russian) opposition will be marginalized by the “free” media to please Brussels and Washington.
The SNA in a coalition with the SPS will still be able to form a majority, but in this case the pressure on Belgrade will increase exponentially, which will complicate Belgrade’s already fragile neutrality and defending its position on Kosovo and Metohija.
Europe, against the backdrop of a series of defeats in Ukraine, the Transcaucasus and Africa, will put pressure on Serbia for political points before the upcoming elections, in order to somehow justify itself to its voters and prove that the EU still has authority.
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Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.