Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
Original text in English, and behind a paywall, but posted in its entirety at Boris Rozhin's Live Journal account.
[ColonelCassad] Since the assassination of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in Iraq on President Donald Trump’s orders in 2020, Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah has emerged as the de facto leader of the “axis of resistance.” As a result, he has become a top target for both the United States and Israel, especially since Hezbollah announced its support for a second front in the war on Gaza.
In response, Israel has been constantly updating its list of high-value targets, employing the latest technologies of fifth- and sixth-generation brilliant warfare to locate and eliminate resistance leaders, whether in their homes or meeting places.
| Not to mention on the road between home and meeting places. An awful lot of Hezbollah bad guys have died on the road to Jerusalem, as they like to say, while going somewhere. |
The assassination of Hezbollah’s leadership, most notably Sayyed Nasrallah, whom Israel claimed to have killed in a large-scale strike, fits into Israel’s broader strategy to neutralize what it perceives as one of its most serious threats. These efforts are not new, but have been going on since 2006, when an unprepared Israel faced a less powerful Hezbollah. Today, the Israeli military is far better equipped, both technologically and strategically, to engage Hezbollah in a full-scale conflict. An important component of this preparation has been the accumulation and analysis of vast quantities of intelligence collected over the past 18 years. Israel’s intelligence capabilities have evolved significantly, using a combination of human intelligence (HUMINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), geospatial intelligence (GEOINT), and advanced cyberwarfare to identify Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities. The Israeli intelligence community, led by agencies such as the Mossad and Aman (the military intelligence directorate), operates a sophisticated network of informants, technical surveillance, and advanced data analysis systems that are used to make military decisions in real time.
INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES:
1. Geospatial Intelligence (GEOINT) and Predictive Analytics:
Israel uses GEOINT to locate underground bunkers, missile silos, and hidden facilities, which is essential for identifying Hezbollah command centers, weapons depots, and safe houses. High-resolution satellite imagery, often augmented with artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, allows Israel to locate fortifications, track personnel movements, and identify new construction projects. Predictive analytics uses massive amounts of data, including Hezbollah’s past behavior patterns, to anticipate future enemy movements. AI-driven systems analyze historical data, intercept communications activity, and use spatial intelligence collected by satellites deployed by Israel and its key ally, the United States. This allows the Israeli military to plan strikes in advance based on where they predict high-value targets will appear.
2. Signals Intelligence (SIGINT) and Communications Interception:
SIGINT is a critical element of Israel’s intelligence-gathering success and involves the interception and analysis of communications. This mission is carried out by Israel’s Unit 8200, one of the most advanced signals intelligence units in the world. ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) satellites monitor Hezbollah cellular devices, wireless networks, and encrypted communications. These satellites intercept communications traffic, which is then analyzed for patterns, critical information, and target identification. AI-powered systems can quickly sift through massive amounts of intercepted data, spotting unusual spikes in communications or operational changes that indicate imminent movements or plans within Hezbollah.
3. Cyberwarfare and Hacking Capabilities:
Israel has invested heavily in cyberwarfare, and artificial intelligence plays a major role in cyber espionage and offensive cyber operations. Israeli cyber units can penetrate Hezbollah’s digital infrastructure, intercepting emails, messages, and tactical communications, as well as disrupting the group’s internal networks. AI systems help Israeli intelligence gather data and automate countermeasures, such as spreading disinformation or disabling critical systems. By penetrating Hezbollah’s secure communications and databases, Israel gathers valuable intelligence, improves situational awareness, and even prepares preemptive strikes based on this knowledge.
4. Drone surveillance and AI integration:
In addition to satellite reconnaissance, Israel makes extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, to serve as surveillance assets and platforms for targeted strikes. Often controlled by artificial intelligence algorithms, these drones can monitor specific areas in real time, collect high-resolution video footage, and transmit that information to intelligence analysts for immediate action. Drones equipped with advanced sensors and cyber tools can hack into local communications networks without being detected, further expanding the reach of Israel’s intelligence-gathering apparatus.
| Good lord — how do they find the time and manpower to actually fight? |
Once this data is decrypted, consolidated, and analyzed, Israeli military and intelligence officers use pattern recognition to pinpoint high-value targets like Sayyed Nasrallah. This process is designed not only to provide direct intelligence on Nasrallah’s location, but also to identify locations that he or his lieutenants are likely to use repeatedly, allowing Israel to plan targeted strikes with minimal collateral damage.
85-TON STRIKE:
If Israel dropped 85 one-ton explosives using bombs like the GBU-31 JDAM or SPICE 2000, it would require at least 42 F-15Es and F-16s to carry out the strike, which is the required number of aircraft based on their payload capacity.
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) 69th Squadron, also known as the "Hammer Squadron," operates 24 F-15I Ra'am fighters, which led the deadly attack.
The F-15E Strike Eagle is one of the most capable fighters in the Israeli air force for delivering bunker busters like the GBU-31 or SPICE 2000. Each F-15E can carry up to two GBU-31 bombs (each weighing one ton or 2,000 pounds).
Along with the F-15E, support aircraft such as the F-16, electronic warfare fighters and surveillance drones (SEAD missions) will be deployed to suppress enemy air defenses and provide situational awareness throughout the targeting and operational approval process:
Identification of a high-value target such as Nasrallah will be accomplished in real time using satellite intelligence (GEOINT), signals intelligence (SIGINT), unmanned surveillance and human intelligence (HUMINT). Real-time verification will confirm Nasrallah’s location, ensuring that the risk to civilians is low while the precision of the strike is prioritized. This phase can take anywhere from a few hours to a few days, depending on the strategic importance and clarity of the intelligence.
Once the intelligence is verified, the information is passed on to the IDF General Command and the Israeli Air Force (IAF) for operational planning. A mission of this magnitude requires final approval from the Israeli Prime Minister (Benjamin Netanyahu) after a detailed briefing by Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
Given the nature and urgency of such a high-priority target, the decision-making process could take minutes. Once approval is received, the IAF will begin preparing the aircraft, which includes loading munitions (such as the GBU-31 JDAM and SPICE 2000 bombs), briefing the pilots just hours before the attack, and coordinating the strike. Given Israel’s advanced level of military readiness, this phase will likely take several hours.
The timing of the operation will depend on intelligence on Nasrallah’s location. The fact that the pilots were briefed just hours before the operation began suggests the urgency of the mission. However, the broader strategic decision was likely in the works for days or weeks, with the IDF waiting for the precise moment when Nasrallah's presence would be confirmed.
The entire process, from target confirmation to mission execution, could take anywhere from a few hours to half a day, with final execution taking 30 minutes to an hour to reach Beirut's Dahiya. The distance from Israeli air bases such as Ramat David Air Base or Hatzor Air Base to Beirut is relatively short, with F-15E fighters taking 30 minutes to an hour to reach the target.
BUNKER BUSTERS AND THEIR EFFECTS:
- GBU-31 JDAM (1-ton variant):
This bomb is a GPS-guided munition used to deliver precision strikes against hard-to-reach targets. The sheer volume of bombs used (85 tons) results in massive destruction, with each bomb designed to penetrate hardened structures before detonating.
- SPICE 2000:
This is an Israeli-developed smart bomb that has been used extensively in Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza. Like the GBU-31, the SPICE 2000 is a precision-guided munition that can target underground bunkers and hardened command centers.
- Impact on Buildings:
Hitting bunkers with 85-ton bombs causes massive damage. The bombs can penetrate deep into the ground or through hardened structures before exploding. This explains the crater that is 15 to 30 meters deep and the collapse of many buildings. The penetrating ability of the bombs ensures that they cause significant damage not only to the buildings they are aimed at, but also to nearby buildings, effectively “sucking” neighboring buildings in.
A successful assassination of Nasrallah could strengthen Netanyahu’s position among Israel’s security-minded right-wing electorate. The operation would be hailed as a major victory in removing a significant threat to Israel’s security. While Nasrallah’s assassination could be a temporary blow and catch Hezbollah off guard, it could also provoke retaliatory strikes from Hezbollah, potentially escalating the wider conflict. Israel is escalating by demanding that the population of southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa stay away from any Hezbollah office or headquarters. This means forcibly expelling civilians and preparing to destroy Lebanon’s Shiite region unless Hezbollah turns the tables on Prime Minister Netanyahu and seizes the initiative.
STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS:
Israel continues to target Hezbollah’s military infrastructure and leadership, not just the top brass but also the second and third tiers, using its vast intelligence resources accumulated over many years. While the Netanyahu administration is encouraged by what it perceives as a victory in the air campaign against Lebanon, the shift in focus from military capabilities to individual leaders reflects a broader strategy of decapitation – a tactic designed to destabilize Hezbollah’s command structure, disrupt its operations, and threaten its existence.
The air war in Lebanon provides Netanyahu with what he believes is a historic opportunity to decisively weaken Hezbollah. Israel’s refocusing of its military efforts on Lebanon has also eased domestic pressure on the Netanyahu government, providing it with a respite from the political fallout from the recent war in Gaza. However, the conflict is far from over.
Hezbollah has yet to fully respond. The group is currently regrouping and rethinking its strategy. With a new leader appointed following the announcement of Sayyed Nasrallah’s martyrdom, it is only a matter of time before Hezbollah makes its next move. The battlefield remains the deciding factor, and the real impact of these strikes will become apparent in the coming days.
(c) Elijah J. Magnier
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...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for