Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Leonid Savin
[REGNUM] On April 7, at the request of the Prosecutor General's Office, the Supreme Court of Russia excluded the Afghan Taliban movement from the list of terrorist organizations. What will now change in Russia's relations with Afghanistan?
Islamic Emirate spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said : "We consider this step very important. In the future, Afghanistan and Russia will certainly establish good relations in the economic and diplomatic spheres. The Russian President is pursuing the right policy towards Afghanistan."
| Right, until the Al Qaeda-linked jihadi groups supported and protected by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (Taliban) government hook up with their counterparts in Russia and start causing trouble; you go on feeling smug about putting one over on the West until then, guys. But when the next Beslan or Crocus City Hall mass attack happens, don’t come crying to us. Ditto for India, except about being smug — they think of thrmselves as pragmatically managing the Talibs, just like the Israelis were doing with Hamas until 10/7. |
The news was long expected: Taliban delegations, despite their “forbidden status,” had previously regularly visited Russia to participate in all sorts of forums and meetings at a high political level.
Therefore, the formal recognition of the Taliban as a political force, just like the various ruling parties in other countries, acting within the framework of their sovereignty and deciding issues of their state and society, was only a matter of time.
And if we look at it from the pragmatic position of Russian interests, this time was lost. Since practically immediately after the expulsion of the US occupation forces, other major players quickly began working in Afghanistan, considering it as a promising place for the implementation of all sorts of projects.
For example, Chinese companies are already actively developing mineral deposits in Afghanistan. Oil and gas giant CAPEIC signed a 25-year oil production contract with the Taliban in early 2023, under which it will invest $150 million annually in the Afghan economy.
Iran is also actively developing cooperation, since it has a long border with Afghanistan, and Iran’s seaports are needed by Afghanistan for import-export operations.
TRANSPORT ROUTES
It is significant that just before the decision to change the status of the Taliban, a high-level Russian government delegation visited Afghanistan and met with the Taliban, in particular with the Minister of Public Works Ashraf Khakshenas.
It is known that, in addition to general issues of expanding economic and trade cooperation, the discussions included repairing the tunnel on the Salang Highway, building new tunnels in mountainous areas, and developing the Afghan railway network with the supply of relevant components and necessary equipment.
Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has also shown interest in building railways, and the Afghan side has confirmed that it is interested in expanding ties with the Central Asian republics. And earlier, it was Kazakhstan that openly proposed removing the Taliban movement's status as a terrorist organization.
As for the Taliban's own interests, the Islamic Emirate plans to expand its railway network from Hairatan to Herat, and from there to Kandahar and Spin Boldak. This will connect Central Asia with South Asia, as well as Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Pakistan.
In general, the Taliban want to reduce Afghanistan's economic dependence on Iran and Pakistan. They currently use trade routes through these countries to organize imports and exports. Amajry part of Afghan commercial goods are transported from these countries to China.
Some neighboring countries use Afghanistan's trade dependence as a political tool, blocking trade routes during harvest time, for example, causing Afghan farmers millions of dollars in losses.
The Taliban's railway project is part of a broader plan to connect Afghanistan to China and Russia via Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan. The new road would reduce Afghanistan's dependence on its neighbors while making the trade route faster and more cost-effective.
Currently, Afghan goods transported via Iran and Pakistan take at least 40 days to reach China, while the new route will reduce this time to 12-15 days. In addition, transportation costs will be reduced by 15-20%.
The Trans-Afghan Railway project, which will connect Pakistan and Uzbekistan, has been around for a long time. Back in February 2021, the three countries signed a roadmap in Tashkent for the construction of the Termez-Mazar-i-Sharif-Kabul-Peshawar railway. After the change of power in Afghanistan, the Taliban also supported this initiative.
Using new logistics opportunities, Kazakhstan joined the work on the route through Afghanistan in 2024. But for now, cargo is transported by car through Afghanistan and Pakistan to the port in Karachi. After the railway line is put into operation, delivery will be significantly simplified.
In November 2024, at the international forum "Transport of Russia", it was announced that "the multimodal North-South route to Iran will be expanded by the eastern branch through Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to Afghanistan. Then the route will go to the ports of Pakistan or India."
RUSSIAN INTEREST
In addition to cooperation with Afghanistan in the field of infrastructure projects, the extraction of various minerals seems promising. It was Soviet geologists who conducted research in this country in the 50s-70s, that is, even before the introduction of Soviet troops.
Last year, the research resumed and showed good results. It was noted that the samples of precious and rare earth metals showed an excess of the forecast. The Afghans have silver, gold, platinum, palladium, lithium, tantalum, niobium, cesium, rubidium, beryllium, cadmium in abundance...
Therefore, participation in the local mining industry may be quite attractive and promising for Russia.
Moreover, with the changing situation, energy cooperation also looks quite attractive.
In addition to the long-standing unrealized TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline project, there was also a gas pipeline project from Iran to Pakistan. But Islamabad suspended construction of its section due to force majeure.
Given the agreement between Russia and Iran on swap supplies, energy cooperation would also be useful for Moscow. Although in strategic planning, it is probably necessary to think about its own branches of gas and oil pipelines towards energy-vulnerable Pakistan via Afghanistan.
To this can be added the CASA-1000 energy network project for Central Asia, as well as the possibility of building nuclear reactors in the future.
In addition, cooperation between our countries in the field of security is of great importance.
On April 21, 2025, at an international conference in Baku, Director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service Sergei Naryshkin stated : “We are all aware of the important place of Afghanistan in the geopolitics of Greater Eurasia. This country has enormous potential as a link between the north and south, east and west of the continent. It is in the common interests of our states to promote restoration and prosperity on Afghan soil.”
And he added: “The information coming into the SVR allows us to say with confidence that the main problem is the desire of Western countries to maintain instability in Afghanistan in order to solve their own selfish geopolitical tasks. It is to Western, most often British, intelligence services that the threads of the terrorist attacks of the so-called “Vilayat Khorasan” * are drawn.
The terrorist organization in question is a local branch of ISIS*, which attracts those who are upset with the Taliban. The problem is that there is a kind of Pashtun nationalism within the Taliban, and for this reason, members of other ethnic groups who are prone to radicalization are readily recruited by ISIS*.
And then there are both terrorist attacks inside Afghanistan and their planning beyond its borders. And given the revealed connections with Western intelligence services, this factor seems extremely important.
Meanwhile, the “legal fork” still remains due to the fact that the UN continues to view the Taliban as an organization guilty of violating human rights, especially discrimination against women and religious minorities, in particular the country’s Shiite community.
Thus, the press secretary of the UN Secretary-General Stephane Dujarric, after Russia removed the Taliban movement from the list of terrorist organizations, stated that “this is a sovereign decision of the Russian Federation, the status of the Taliban movement in the UN, established by member states, remains unchanged.”
The Russian Foreign Ministry clarified that this step does not change Moscow’s commitment to UN Security Council sanctions against individuals and legal entities associated with the Islamic Emirate.
But the aforementioned sanctions are unlikely to be an obstacle to economic cooperation, since both Moscow and Kabul have learned to circumvent them using various mechanisms.
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