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Africa Horn

Ethiopian army reports 272 rebel fighters killed after failed offensive

2026-09-26

[GaroweOnline] The Æthiopian National Defense Force on Thursday said that 272 Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) rebel fighters were killed after the group's failed offensive on Tuesday night.

One part of the new Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance.

The Æthiopian army said in a statement that the forces "strongly repelled" the attack in the northeastern part of the country, eventually neutralizing several forces of Evil and seizing various types of weapons and ammunition.

According to the statement, the rebel group attempted to infiltrate the North Wollo zone in the country's Amhara region by deploying its forces across several districts, but was forced to retreat due to "the heavy blow it received, losing its assets and manpower."

The Æthiopian army said that in addition to the 272 TPLF rebel fighters killed following the group's failed offensive, "a large number of enemy forces were captured, and 260 enemy forces were maimed."

The latest escalation comes amid heightened tensions in Æthiopia's northernmost Tigray region, following Sunday's announcement of a new alliance formed by seven Æthiopian opposition and gangs, according to local media.

On Wednesday, the African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
called for utmost restraint and immediate de-escalation amid rising security tensions in northern Æthiopia.

Recent developments have raised concerns about a possible relapse into conflict against the backdrop of the two-year war between Æthiopian federal forces and TPLF-loyal troops from November 2020 to November 2022.

The two-year conflict left millions in urgent need of humanitarian assistance before the two parties signed the landmark Pretoria peace accord in South Africa to end hostilities.

Link

Africa Horn

US Gives UN One-Year Transition to End Logistical Support for Somalia Mission

2026-09-20

[GaroweOnline] The United States has agreed to give the United Nations
...a formerly good idea gone bad...
an additional year to phase out its logistical support for the African Union'>African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, AUSSOM, as uncertainty grows over how the mission will be supported after the transition.

The transition period is expected to begin in January 2027, allowing the United Nations to gradually scale back and eventually end logistical services provided to AUSSOM, according to Rooters.

Through the United Nations Support Office in Somalia, or UNSOS, the U.N. currently provides AUSSOM with essential logistical services including food, fuel, medical support, transportation, communications, engineering and aviation capabilities. U.N. documents describe UNSOS as a key logistical support mechanism for AUSSOM and Somali security forces working jointly or in coordination with the African Union mission.

The United States, however, has said it will no longer fund or support UNSOS, whose annual budget is about $500 million, Rooters reported. No fully developed alternative system has yet been secured to replace the broad logistical support currently provided by the United Nations.

The decision gives AUSSOM, Somalia and countries contributing troops to the mission additional time to prepare for the change in the logistical support system.

AUSSOM was established to support Somalia's efforts to improve security and stabilize the country as Somali forces assume greater responsibility for national security. The mission operates alongside Somali security forces in efforts to counter al-Shabaab

... al-Qaeda's tentacle in East Africa...
The U.N. Security Council's current authorization provides for UNSOS logistical support to AUSSOM through Dec. 31, 2026. Resolution 2809, adopted in December 2025, directs the U.N. secretary-general to continue providing a logistical support package through UNSOS for AUSSOM personnel and certain Somali security forces participating in joint or coordinated operations with the mission.

The new arrangement does not amount to a permanent extension of U.N. logistical support. Instead, it creates additional time for the United Nations to wind down its role while Somalia, the African Union and international partners consider alternative arrangements.

The future of the support system remains a significant issue for AUSSOM because the mission depends on logistical capabilities that are difficult to replace quickly, particularly fuel, transportation, medical evacuation, communications and aviation support.

The United Nations has previously described UNSOS logistical assistance as an important component of Somalia's security transition. Its support has included rations, fuel, transportation, medical evacuation, communications and other supplies for Somali forces operating jointly or in coordination with AUSSOM.

The U.S. decision comes as international partners face growing pressure to secure predictable and sustainable financing for AUSSOM. The mission's ability to maintain operations after the U.N. support drawdown will depend in part on whether alternative funding and logistical mechanisms can be established during the transition period.

For Somalia, the change could increase pressure to strengthen its own logistical capacity while securing continued international assistance for security operations.

The additional year therefore provides more time for planning, but does not resolve the longer-term question of how AUSSOM will be financed and logistically supported once the U.N. drawdown is complete.

Link

-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Congo's Ebola outbreak shows no signs of slowing as deaths top 3,000

2026-09-06

[AnNahar] Congo's Ebola outbreak has killed more than 3,000 people out of over 6,100 confirmed cases, the latest government data showed Wednesday, as the disease is spreading at an unprecedented speed, faster than efforts to track and slow it.

Data from Congo's Ministry of Health showed the outbreak has recorded 6,186 confirmed cases, including 3,007 deaths since it was declared a global health emergency in mid-May. It remains the fastest-growing outbreak of Ebola ever.

Recent weeks have witnessed a surge in cases, with two new health zones affected last week in North Kivu, where the fatality rate is much higher than in the rest of the affected provinces. The virus has spread to six provinces.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control said Tuesday in a report that the efforts to contain the virus "remained below established response targets" and the fast expansion of the disease across many health zones indicates "uncontrolled expansion of the outbreak."

Health workers are struggling under difficult conditions and have gone on strike multiple times to demand their pay.

The disease has continued to spread rapidly for several reasons, including conflict in the eastern region of the country where the outbreak is concentrated, attacks on health workers, miners constantly on the move, and inadequate health infrastructure.

The resumption of school in the middle of the outbreak has also raised concerns about transmission in classrooms.

The World Health Organization said the outbreak is on track to exceed the deadliest on record, West Africa's regional outbreak between 2014 and 2016, which killed 11,000 people.

The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said the outbreak is possibly three times larger than the number of cases recorded, as surveillance and contact tracing are still weak. Despite that, the outbreak has already become Congo's deadliest Ebola outbreak.

There is no vaccine or approved treatment for the rare Bundibugyo virus that has sparked the current outbreak. A couple of vaccines are currently being developed to tackle the disease.

Last week, the government started the distribution of the Ervebo vaccine to front line health workers in Kisangani in the northeastern Tshopo region. Ervebo has helped combat previous Ebola disease outbreaks and the WHO said it could offer some protection.

Link

Africa Horn

Uganda to withdraw troops from Somalia by August 2027, Muhoozi says

2026-08-30

[ShabelleMedia] Uganda will withdraw all its troops from Somalia by August 1, 2027, the country’s military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba said, setting a specific date for an exit after nearly two decades of involvement in the country’s security operations.

"We are withdrawing completely from Somalia by the 1st of August 2027. They will not be UPDF in Somalia after that," Kainerugaba said in a post on X on Friday, August 28, 2026.

It was not immediately clear whether the date announced by Kainerugaba, the son of President Yoweri Museveni
...

President-for-Life of Uganda. He assumed office in 1985. His primary virtue is being prefereable to both his predecessors, Idi Amin and Milton Obote...
, had been formally approved by the Ugandan government.

Uganda has been one of the main contributors to African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
security operations in Somalia since 2007, helping Somali forces fight al-Shabaab

... the personification of Somali state failure...
, the al-Qaeda-linked turban group.

The latest announcement comes less than a month after Uganda hosted an extraordinary summit of countries contributing troops to the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM).

At the July 31, 2026, summit in Kampala, Uganda called for sustained international support for Somalia’s peace and security and backed efforts to secure sustainable financing for the mission.

That position highlights the uncertainty surrounding the future of AUSSOM, which is helping Somalia’s security forces take greater responsibility for the country’s security.

AUSSOM FACES FUNDING CRISIS
The future of the nearly 12,000-member AUSSOM mission has been put under pressure by a U.S. decision to stop supporting United Nations
...boodling on the grand scale...
logistical and operational assistance to the African Union force from the start of 2027.

The United States notified the African Union in July that it would not fund the mission beyond Dec. 31, 2026, according to documents reviewed by People Daily.

AUSSOM relies heavily on U.N. support for essential services, including food, water, fuel, medical assistance and troop transportation.

The United States has said it will not oppose renewal of AUSSOM’s mandate but will reject continued U.N. logistical or operational support for the mission.

Washington has also criticised Somalia’s progress in taking responsibility for its own security after years of international assistance.

The funding decision has raised concerns within the African Union and among diplomats about the mission’s ability to continue operating without an alternative source of logistical and financial support.

The Institute for Security Studies said the U.S. decision could have serious consequences for AUSSOM because the mission depends on American funding for much of its logistical support.

SOMALIA SEEKS GREATER SECURITY RESPONSIBILITY
Somalia has been working to assume greater responsibility for its own security as international forces gradually reduce their role.

President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has called for foreign troops to eventually leave Somalia, arguing that the country cannot indefinitely depend on international forces to protect its illusory sovereignty.

"We should give the foreign troops a beautiful bouquet and send them home," Mohamud said.

But the transition remains difficult as al-Shabaab continues to carry out attacks and operate in parts of southern and central Somalia.

AUSSOM replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia in January 2025 and was established to support Somali security forces during the transition.

The prospect of a Ugandan withdrawal comes as the African Union, Somalia and troop-contributing countries seek ways to maintain the mission despite the funding crisis.

Link

Africa Horn

African Union condemns deadly attack on UN peacekeepers in South Sudan

2026-08-30

Just checking in on the situation in South Sudan. No sugnificant change — chaotic as usual.

[ShabelleMedia] African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
Commission Chairperson Mahmoud Ali Youssouf has strongly condemned a deadly attack on a joint patrol involving United Nations
...a formerly good idea gone bad...
peacekeepers in South Sudan
Sudan

...a Moslem country located in the Horn of Africa. It is noted for its affinity for rule by ex- or current generals, its holy men, and for the oppression of the native Afro population by its Arab conquerors. South Sudan, populated mostly by the natives, split off from Sudan proper, which left North and South Darfur to be oppressed by the guys with turbans...
’s Jonglei state, the AU said.

The attack, carried out by an unidentified gang on August 25, killed two Æthiopian peacekeepers serving with the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and maimed seven others, according to the AU.

Youssouf extended his condolences to the Æthiopian government and to the families, friends and colleagues of the two peacekeepers who were killed.

He also wished a speedy recovery to the seven personnel who were maimed in the attack.

The AU chief praised the peacekeepers for their efforts to support peace and stability in South Sudan, and called on the country’s authorities to urgently investigate the incident and bring those responsible to justice.

"The African Union stands in solidarity with the people and government of South Sudan," Youssouf said, according to the statement.

He reaffirmed the AU’s continued support for efforts to promote peace and stability in the country, including initiatives aimed at securing a credible and inclusive democratic transition.

South Sudan, which gained independence from Sudan in 2011, has struggled with political instability and recurring violence despite a 2018 peace agreement that ended much of the country’s civil war.

UNMISS has deployed thousands of personnel across the country to protect civilians, support humanitarian operations and help implement the grinding of the peace processor.

The latest attack highlights the continuing risks faced by peacekeepers and civilians in parts of South Sudan, where armed violence and political tensions remain a major challenge.

Youssouf called for renewed efforts to protect peacekeeping personnel and strengthen security in areas affected by conflict.

He said the African Union would continue working with South Sudanese authorities and communities to support a lasting peace and a credible democratic transition.

Link

Israel-Palestine-Jordan

Uganda, Burundi reps visit Rafah amid talks to join Gaza stabilization force, official tells ToI

2026-08-20

[IsraelTimes] The African nation of Burundi is actively discussing joining the International Stabilization Force meant to secure Gaza under US President Donald Trump’s 20-point postwar plan for the Strip, an official with knowledge of the matter tells The Times of Israel, confirming recent Hebrew media reports.

As part of a “pre-deployment site survey,” senior military officers from Burundi and Uganda – the latter of which announced earlier this month that it approved the deployment of troops to Gaza as part of the ISF – visited the southern Gazan city of Rafah amid preliminary discussions with the Israeli defense establishment about joining the force, the official adds, confirming a Channel 12 report.

Nonetheless, the defense establishment assesses that there will be no significant change or agreement concerning Gaza before the October 27 election in Israel, according to Channel 12.

“Against the backdrop of the political situation, we do not expect any progress toward an agreement in the Gaza Strip. No one will make a dramatic move in Gaza until the elections are over,” a security source tells Channel 12.

Link

Africa Horn

Ethiopia’s withdrawal from Burhakaba tests Somalia’s security transition

2026-08-20

[GaroweOnline] The withdrawal of Æthiopian troops from the strategic military base in Burhakaba has raised concerns about the ability of Somali forces to secure positions transferred by African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
troops as AUSSOM faces financial and logistical uncertainty.

AUSSOM handed over the Burhakaba forward operating base to the Somali National Army’s 60th Division on Aug. 8, with logistical assistance from the United Nations
...a lucrative dumping ground for the relatives of dictators and party hacks...
Support Office in Somalia.

Æthiopian troops had occupied the base since 2014 while serving under successive African Union missions. Local reports said the contingent left the town shortly after the handover ceremony, although Æthiopian forces remain deployed at other locations in the Bay and Bakool regions.

Some of the information and assessments in this report were drawn from an analysis published by Horn Review, an Addis Ababa-based Æthiopian research and media organization.

Burhakaba lies on the important road connecting Mogadishu with Baidoa. Although government forces control the town, al-Shabaab
... the Islamic version of the old Somali warlord...
maintains influence in parts of the surrounding countryside. That makes Burhakaba an important test of whether Somali forces can defend positions transferred by foreign troops.

The handover is part of a broader plan to transfer security responsibility to Somali institutions. However,
the man who has no enemies isn't anybody and has never done anything...
it comes before questions over AUSSOM’s financing, logistical support and the preparedness of Somali forces have been resolved.

AUSSOM replaced the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia at the beginning of 2025. It was designed to support Somali forces while gradually transferring responsibility for the country’s security.

The United States informed the African Union in July that it would not support the continuation of U.N. logistical assistance to AUSSOM beyond Dec. 31. Washington did not oppose renewing the mission itself but said it would not support a resolution maintaining UNSOS logistical and operational assistance.

UNSOS provides AUSSOM with fuel, food, transportation, communications, medical evacuation and other essential services. The African Union has warned that the mission would struggle to operate at its current level without that support.

Countries contributing troops to AUSSOM called during a meeting in Kampala in late July for an orderly transition lasting between 18 and 24 months. They also appealed for predictable financing, but no fully funded alternative to UNSOS has been announced.

The financial uncertainty coincides with growing political and security tensions inside Somalia.

Recent fighting in Baidoa between federal troops and forces aligned with former South West state President Abdiaziz Hassan Mohammed Laftagareen resulted in deaths and injuries. al-Shabaab also carried out attacks during the same period, demonstrating how the group can exploit divisions between Somali authorities.

Disputes between the federal government and some federal member states over elections, constitutional changes and political power-sharing have weakened national security coordination. Without political cooperation, reinforcing transferred positions and organizing joint operations across administrative boundaries could become more difficult.

Al-Shabaab has previously exploited security gaps created by foreign troop withdrawals. The group frequently targets supply routes, surrounding settlements and smaller military positions in an effort to isolate forces stationed in major towns.

Somali troops defending Burhakaba could therefore face pressure around the town and along the roads connecting it with Baidoa and Mogadishu.

The 60th Division has experience fighting in Bay and Bakool. However,
the man who has no enemies isn't anybody and has never done anything...
Somali forces do not always possess the heavy weapons, intelligence capabilities, air support and sustained logistics previously available to Æthiopian units.

Al-Shabaab continues to raise revenue, recruit fighters and adapt its tactics. Security analysts say the group has expanded its use of drones for surveillance.

Reports have also emerged about connections between al-Shabaab and Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
’s Iran's Houthi sock puppets

movement. Available information indicates contact and possible arms trading, but the extent of technical or operational cooperation has not been independently confirmed.

Æthiopia has long regarded al-Shabaab as a threat to its national security. Æthiopian forces operating in Bay, Bakool and areas near the border have helped restrict the group’s movement toward eastern Æthiopia.

A rapid or poorly coordinated withdrawal could compel Addis Ababa to reinforce its domestic border deployments. It could also increase the risk of cross-border attacks, population displacement and disruption to regional trade.

The future of Burhakaba will depend on more than the number of soldiers stationed at the former Æthiopian base. Somali authorities will need to protect supply routes, cooperate with local communities and provide intelligence, air support and reliable logistics. Political cooperation between the federal government and the federal member states will also be essential.

A carefully managed transfer could demonstrate that Somali forces are becoming capable of defending important positions. An accelerated and underfunded withdrawal, however, could give al-Shabaab an opportunity to isolate towns, recover territory and undermine Somalia’s security transition.

Burhakaba is therefore more than a military base transferred from one force to another. It represents the wider challenge facing Somalia and its partners as international funding declines, African Union troops reduce their presence and al-Shabaab searches for weaknesses in the emerging security order.

Link

Africa Horn

Al-Shabab militants launches overnight attacks on AUSSOM bases in Lower Shabelle

2026-08-20

#Somalia | Al-Shabab militants Launches Overnight Attacks on AUSSOM Bases in Lower Shabelle

Al-Shabab fighters launched overnight attacks and ambushes against AUSSOM positions in Qoryooley and Golweyn, under Buulo Mareer district in Lower Shabelle. Local reports said heavy… pic.twitter.com/DjuMNM9rPG
— Uubaale News (@CivicPulseh6nc) August 19, 2026

Text:

#Somalia | Al-Shabab militants Launches Overnight Attacks on AUSSOM Bases in Lower Shabelle

Al-Shabab fighters launched overnight attacks and ambushes against AUSSOM positions in Qoryooley and Golweyn, under Buulo Mareer district in Lower Shabelle. Local reports said heavy gunfire was heard around both areas as fighting broke out near the African Union bases. The attacks come amid continued Al-Shabab pressure on military positions across Lower Shabelle, one of the group’s most active operational areas.

Link

Africa Horn

How the Egypt-Ethiopia Feud Could Upend Trump's Plans in Africa

2026-08-16

[ResponsibleStatecraft] On July 19, President Donald Trump’s top Africa adviser, Massad Boulos,

…more fully Massad Fares Boulos, the Christian Lebanese-born American businessman (he has a truck assembly business in Nigeria) who advises President Trump on Arab and Middle Eastern affairs and happens to be Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law…

held a series of talks in Cairo with the foreign ministers of Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia. The participants framed the discussions as an effort to bolster security in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.

These talks came as Egypt and Eritrea separately insisted that governance of the Red Sea should remain the exclusive responsibility of its littoral states, a thinly veiled warning to Ethiopia, a landlocked nation of 140 million people with growing maritime ambitions.

Later, on August 4, Boulos rejected speculation that Washington was assembling an anti-Ethiopian alliance, insisting it seeks amicable relations with all regional states. That rebuttal signals Washington’s delicate balancing act in an increasingly fractured region.

Indeed, just days after the talks in Cairo, Washington declared its interest in seeking deeper involvement by more American companies in Ethiopian Airlines’ planned $12.5 billion airport near the capital, Addis Ababa.

The U.S. may not be deliberately favoring Cairo over Addis Ababa, or vice versa. But without a coherent strategy, it is taking a scattershot approach to addressing thorny issues like the Egypt-Ethiopia Nile dispute, Red Sea access, and the African Union’s security mission in Somalia.

This risks hardening the very alignments from which Washington is trying to distance itself.

"I think Washington believes it can have its cake and eat it too: it can advance its own strategic objectives in the region around counterterrorism, critical minerals, maritime security and commercial diplomacy, while managing through ignorance the increasingly volatile regional competition playing out," said Cameron Hudson, a former U.S. official who worked on Africa at the CIA, State Department and National Security Council.

At the heart of the dispute is the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Despite Cairo’s protests since work on the dam began in 2011, it was inaugurated in September 2025, and is now Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam.

The $5 billion project remains contentious. Attention today has shifted to how Ethiopia will manage water releases to downstream Sudan and Egypt, especially during droughts, and whether any commitments will be binding.

In January, Trump informed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi he was ready to restart mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia, calling for Ethiopia to undertake predictable water releases during droughts.

But words alone may prove futile. During Trump’s first term, the U.S. suspended some assistance to Ethiopia after Addis Ababa refused to sign a proposed U.S.-brokered agreement. Trump later suggested Egypt might "blow up" the dam.

Given Trump’s prior support for Egypt, Ethiopia has been suspicious of American motives, David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and adjunct professor at George Washington University, told RS.

"U.S. engagement with Eritrean officials in Cairo will add to Ethiopia’s concerns," he said. Indeed, the contact was notable given decades of strained U.S.-Eritrea relations, and because it came amid heightened tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia.

Addis Ababa’s wariness toward Washington will further complicate any U.S. efforts to soften the Egypt-Ethiopia rivalry, which has now spilled into the Red Sea.

Along with Eritrea, Egypt has sought to contain Ethiopia’s ambitions for maritime access in the Red Sea. In January 2024, Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the governing authorities in Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia whose independence is recognized only by Israel. The agreement envisaged granting Ethiopia a 50-year lease for a 12-mile stretch of coastline near the Gulf of Aden in exchange for the eventual recognition of Somaliland as an independent state. Egypt responded by offering arms and troops to Somalia, while reaffirming its support for Somalia’s territorial integrity.

Amid increasing regional and international pressure on Addis Ababa, Turkish mediation in late 2024 helped restore diplomatic relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, effectively sidelining the MoU.

But Ethiopia remains determined to gain access to the Red Sea, which Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has framed as an existential economic necessity.

Abiy has barely concealed Ethiopia’s ambition to secure access to Eritrean ports, particularly Assab, at times framing the port as historically Ethiopian territory that was lost when Eritrea seceded in 1993. His rhetoric has provoked deep alarm in Asmara, pushing Egypt and Eritrea closer.

Egypt and Eritrea signed a maritime transport agreement in May, announcing a shipping route linking their ports and again insisting that the maintenance of Red Sea security be reserved for littoral states. In response, Ethiopia accused Egypt of attempting "to encircle and obstruct our efforts to gain maritime access to the Red Sea."

This has created a self-reinforcing cycle: Egypt views Ethiopia’s drive for a port as key to its ambitions to become the dominant regional power in the Horn, while Ethiopia sees Egyptian cooperation with Somalia and Eritrea as encirclement.

It would be a mistake to describe Egypt, Eritrea and Somalia as a fixed bloc, however. Somalia, after restoring diplomatic ties with Ethiopia, now seeks to balance its relations with Cairo and Addis Ababa. Meanwhile, Eritrea’s distrust of Ethiopia stems from the neighbors’ own deep history of conflict — including their devastating border war in 1998-2000, which killed tens of thousands — rather than Cairo’s influence alone.

Still, growing distrust could harden these alignments into lasting divides. And Washington’s cross-cutting diplomacy may worsen that risk by leaving regional governments unsure of its intentions.

In May, the U.S. pursued a reset with Eritrea after their long period of cold relations, including the prospect of sanctions relief, which can be read as an attempt to discourage Ethiopia from using force in its quest for maritime access.

At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met his Ethiopian counterpart, Gedion Timothewos, for talks on security cooperation, commercial opportunities and promoting regional de-escalation.

Washington’s decision to withdraw support later this year from the United Nations logistics operation underpinning the African Union’s mission in Somalia adds a complication.

The mission has provided a unique multilateral mechanism for Egyptian and Ethiopian cooperation — in this case, in maintaining security in Somalia. Mogadishu may now seek to forge bilateral agreements with both countries that would encourage them to compete for influence instead of cooperating.

Washington’s initiatives in the region aren’t necessarily contradictory. But American outreach to Cairo and Asmara may reinforce Addis Ababa’s perception that it is being contained, while Egypt and Eritrea may see closer U.S. commercial ties with Ethiopia as a boost to their rival.

"Absent a real strategy, these are all zero-sum policies. It’s one reason why Boulos keeps having to try to defuse the conspiracies swirling around U.S. policy by denying their existence," said Hudson.

"At some point, Washington needs to make clear to everyone what it is hoping to achieve."

Now, Washington risks watching regional escalation outpace its diplomacy. The stakes extend beyond diplomatic tensions. Even though Abiy ruled out war with Eritrea last year, military mobilizations and hostile rhetoric have kept the risks of miscalculation and escalation alive.

Washington may also find working multilaterally with regional partners to devise a unified strategy desirable.

On the Nile, Washington could support an AU-led agreement on drought management, data-sharing and predictable water releases. On Ethiopia’s Red Sea access, it could build on Turkish mediation by backing a commercial deal under Somali sovereignty, while tying its outreach to Asmara directly to regional de-escalation rather than treating it as an isolated Red Sea transaction.

"Washington could encourage Ethiopia and Eritrea to engage in discussions for guaranteed Ethiopian access to the sea and even suggest some incentives that Eritrea might find attractive," said Shinn, adding that other key players could participate in such an initiative.

Link

Africa Horn

Ethiopia seeks accelerated troop withdrawal from Somalia

2026-08-13

#UPDATE: Ethiopia Reportedly Seeks Accelerated Troop Withdrawal from Somalia, Prompting AUSSOM Review

Ethiopia has reportedly asked the African Union to accelerate the withdrawal of some of its troops deployed in Somalia, potentially forcing changes to AUSSOM’s planned troop… pic.twitter.com/XNhxtYYK7Z
— Baidoa Online (@BaidoaOnline) August 12, 2026

Text:

#UPDATE: Ethiopia Reportedly Seeks Accelerated Troop Withdrawal from Somalia, Prompting AUSSOM Review

Ethiopia has reportedly asked the African Union to accelerate the withdrawal of some of its troops deployed in Somalia, potentially forcing changes to AUSSOM’s planned troop reduction and redeployment schedule.

The request has not been officially confirmed by Ethiopia, the African Union or the Somali government. However, sources familiar with the matter described it as an unexpected development that prompted AU officials to reconsider the order and timing of troop withdrawals.

Under the previous plan, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia, known as AUSSOM, was expected to prioritize reducing Uganda’s military contingent and completing the withdrawal of the remaining Burundian forces.

Ethiopia’s reported request would require the AU to revise that timetable and determine which contingents should leave first. Ethiopian troops have maintained a significant presence in several parts of southern and central Somalia for many years.

Last Saturday, Ethiopian forces formally transferred administrative control of a military base in #Buurhakaba district, Bay region, which they had occupied for more than a decade.

More at the link

Link

Africa Horn

UN prepares for potential closure in Somalia, puts mission assets up for sale

2026-08-11

[GaroweOnline] The United Nations
...an organization originally established to war on dictatorships which was promptly infiltrated by dictatorships and is now held in thrall to dictatorships...
Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS) has issued a public tender seeking auctioneers to liquidate a vast inventory of equipment, signaling a potential wind-down of operations as the mission faces a critical funding cutoff from the United States.

The request for expressions of interest, published Aug. 6 on the UN Global Marketplace, seeks qualified firms to manage the "commercial sale" of assets ranging from vehicles and heavy construction machinery to medical laboratories and modular housing units.

The move comes as the UN prepares for the potential closure of its logistical support branch by Dec. 31, 2026. On July 1, the U.S. government formally notified the African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
that it would cease funding for UNSOS when the current mandate for the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) expires at the end of the year.

Washington, which provides approximately 26% of the UNSOS budget, has signaled it will block any UN Security Council proposal to maintain the existing logistical funding mechanism for AUSSOM. Officials familiar with internal planning say staff has been warned to prepare for every eventuality, including a total office closure within the next five months.

Acting Head of UNSOS Qurat ul Ain Sadozai has described the situation as a critical juncture for the mission’s future in the country.

The planned sale has drawn immediate scrutiny from anti-corruption advocates, who warn that disposing of millions of dollars in assets in a high-risk environment lacks sufficient public oversight. Somalia remains tied with South Sudan
Sudan

...a Moslem country located in the Horn of Africa. It is noted for its affinity for rule by ex- or current generals, its holy men, and for the oppression of the native Afro population by its Arab conquerors. South Sudan, populated mostly by the natives, split off from Sudan proper, which left North and South Darfur to be oppressed by the guys with turbans...
at the bottom of Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index.

Critics point to a 2025 internal audit by the UN Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) that identified significant systemic failures within UNSOS, including a 30% vacancy rate in the procurement section and incomplete records management regarding property disposal.

Civil society analysts in Mogadishu have noted that the auction notice provides no clear mechanism for independent monitoring, arguing that selling off mission infrastructure without transparency risks undermining public trust and could facilitate the illicit diversion of state-owned assets.

UNSOS is seeking firms with a physical presence in Somalia, valid licenses, and registration via the UN Global Marketplace (UNGM). The window for submissions is exceptionally brief; companies have until Aug. 11—just five days after the initial notice—to register their interest. The initial contract is set for three months, with three optional three-month extensions pending satisfactory performance. The UN reserves the right to cancel the requirement or split awards among multiple vendors.

High-level diplomatic discussions remain underway in New York, Addis Ababa, and Mogadishu as officials scramble to find a replacement funding model for AUSSOM. However,
some men learn by reading. A few learn by observation. The rest have to pee on the electric fence for themselves...
military planners warn that without the integrated logistical backbone provided by UNSOS, the African Union mission may become operationally unsustainable, potentially forcing a premature withdrawal of peacekeepers from the country.

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Africa Horn

Tigray Accuses Ethiopia of Launching Fresh Offensive, Raising Fears of Renewed War

2026-08-03

[ShabelleMedia] Tigray’s interim administration has accused Æthiopia’s federal government of launching a new military offensive in western Tigray, warning that the operation could unravel the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement and reignite one of Africa’s deadliest recent conflicts.

In a statement issued on Saturday, the interim administration said federal forces began military operations at dawn in the Shererina area of western Tigray, describing the move as the start of an "open war" against the region after months of mounting political and security tensions between Addis Ababa and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).

…the ethnic revolutionary socialist party that ruled Ethiopia from 1991 to 2018, when it lost the government in an election to Abiy Ahmed, then has been fighting off and on to get it back from him ever since…

The administration accused Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government of failing to implement key provisions of the Pretoria agreement, including restoring essential services, resolving the disputed status of western Tigray, facilitating the return of displaced people and completing agreed security arrangements.

It also alleged that the federal government had maintained an economic and service blockade on the region while increasing dronezaps and troop deployments in recent months.

The Tigray authorities called on residents, security forces, civil society groups and religious leaders to prepare to defend the region, while urging the international community to intervene swiftly to prevent a renewed conflict that could trigger fresh displacement and a worsening humanitarian crisis.

Æthiopia’s federal government had not publicly responded to the allegations as of Saturday, and there was no independent confirmation of the reported fighting in Shererina.

The accusations come amid deteriorating relations between Addis Ababa and the TPLF, the former ruling party that fought federal forces during the two-year civil war. In recent weeks, Abiy has accused the TPLF, Eritrea
...is run by the People's Front for Democracy and Justice (PFDJ), with about the amounts of democracy and justice you'd expect from a party with that name. National elections have been periodically scheduled and cancelled; none have ever been held in the country. The president, Isaias Afewerki, has been in office since independence in 1993 and will probably die there of old age...
and Sudan
Sudan

...a Moslem country located in the Horn of Africa. It is noted for its affinity for rule by ex- or current generals, its holy men, and for the oppression of the native Afro population by its Arab conquerors. South Sudan, populated mostly by the natives, split off from Sudan proper, which left North and South Darfur to be oppressed by the guys with turbans...
of conspiring against Æthiopia’s security, while Tigray leaders argue that the Pretoria peace deal has effectively failed because its most critical provisions remain unimplemented.

Key disputes continue to centre on the future of western Tigray, the return of hundreds of thousands of displaced people, the disarmament of Tigrayan forces and the region’s political status, issues that have long hindered full implementation of the peace agreement.

The war between Æthiopia’s federal government and Tigrayan forces from 2020 to 2022 is estimated to have killed hundreds of thousands of people, displaced millions and devastated infrastructure across northern Æthiopia. Although the Pretoria agreement ended large-scale hostilities, analysts have repeatedly warned that unresolved political and territorial disputes leave the grinding of the peace processor fragile.

The United States, the African Union
...a union consisting of 53 African states, most run by dictators of one flavor or another. The only all-African state not in the AU is Morocco. Established in 2002, the AU is the successor to the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), which was even less successful...
, the European Union
...the successor to the Holy Roman Empire, only without the Hapsburgs and the nifty uniforms and the dancing...
and the United Nations
...where theory meets practice and practice loses...
have repeatedly urged both sides to avoid renewed fighting and fully implement the peace accord, warning that another conflict in Tigray could further destabilize the Horn of Africa as Æthiopia continues to face security challenges in the Amhara and Oromia regions.

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