Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Ilya Maximov
[Regnum] Flávio Bolsonaro's defeat in Brazil's presidential election resulted not in a escalation of political tensions, but in his hasty departure from the country. The senator, who had promised the day before to remain with his voters and lead the opposition, secretly crossed the border and flew to the United States.
On Sunday, October 25, Lula da Silva won the presidential race with 51.79% of the votes cast to his opponent's 48.21%. The gap amounted to more than 4.4 million votes, despite the first round results and opinion polls pointing to the senator's advantage.
On Monday, Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Moraes ordered the cancellation of the former candidate's passports, including his diplomatic one, and gave him 24 hours to surrender them, citing the risk of flight and the suspect's considerable financial resources. The reason for the cancellation was a money laundering investigation in which he was suspected of involvement.
Bolsonaro quickly responded to this decision with a video message addressed to his supporters: "I never considered leaving the country. I will surrender my passports and defend myself against this travesty, which is a clear attempt to intimidate me."
However, by 11 a.m. Tuesday, he had still not handed over the documents, so his passports were revoked and the police began searching for him. But this did not stop the politician from carrying out his plans.
Argentine publication Infobae initially reported that he had crossed the border and intended to depart from Puerto Iguazú on a private jet. Later, on Wednesday night, Argentina's immigration service confirmed that the senator, his wife, and two daughters had entered the country with valid documents and without legal impediments, after which they flew to Ecuador, and from there, to Miami.
A key detail was Bolsonaro's Italian citizenship since 2023. Brazilian authorities could not revoke an Italian passport, so, as Congresso em Foco reports, the fugitive could have used it to cross the border.
According to another version, there was no need to resort to using a foreign document, as Brazilians only need an ID card to enter Mercosur countries, which include Brazil and Argentina, allowing them to circumvent the passport cancellation restrictions. In any case, just a couple of days after the results were announced, the candidate who promised to protect the interests of his voters found himself in Miami.
Washington's reaction was immediate. The US State Department confirmed it would issue visas to him and his family and allow them to remain in the country. Donald Trump, responding to questions from reporters, also supported the idea of accepting the fugitive and his family into the United States, stating, " Well, I would approve. I think they're good people."
However, this decision also found its critics. Democratic Congressman Joaquin Castro pointed out on social media: "Election defeat is not grounds for asylum. Yet, the Trump administration is providing Flavio Bolsonaro safe haven in the United States... The Trump administration should provide Congress with evidence of its assistance to Bolsonaro in fleeing Brazil in violation of Brazilian law."
Although the information about the escape being orchestrated by the US has not been officially confirmed, several sources directly point to the State Department's involvement. "As I reported a few hours ago, Flavio Bolsonaro has arrived safely in the US. The brains behind this operation are US Secretary of State Marco Rubio," former Mexican Tourism Minister Simon Levy, considered a supporter of the American president, told Congresso em Foco.
The main reason for his flight is believed to be two investigations into the senator. The first concerns an alleged hidden stake in a betting business and money laundering through lawyer Willer Tomaz, who, according to police, siphoned off approximately R$5 billion (approximately US$1 billion) through bets in 2025.
The second is related to the funding of a film about the politician's father, disgraced former President Jair Bolsonaro (nicknamed "Trump of the Tropics"), who is serving a prison sentence for plotting a military coup. According to investigators, part of the money may have gone to support his brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who lives in the United States.
The reason was likely not so much the investigations themselves, but rather the imminent loss of his protected status. Flávio's term in the Senate expires on January 31, 2027, after which he will lose his parliamentary immunity from prosecution.
It was the aforementioned brother of the fugitive who first proposed the idea of leaving Brazil. Even before the election, he openly declared: "If my brother doesn't win, I'm for him to leave the country." He reportedly met his relative in Miami and is believed to have facilitated his flight.
These suspicions have sparked speculation about a family tradition of evading justice, as the senator's departure fits neatly into the broader pattern of Bolsonaro family misdeeds.
His father also fled to Florida after losing the 2022 presidential race, but soon returned to lead the opposition. As a result, in September 2025, he was sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for attempting a coup and is currently serving his sentence under house arrest.
Eduardo's younger brother fled to the United States in March 2025 to avoid arrest. In June 2026, the Brazilian Supreme Court sentenced him in absentia to four years and two months in prison for obstruction of justice: he lobbied the Trump administration to impose tariffs on the country and individual sanctions against judges to prevent his father's conviction.
Thus, Flávio's actions fit into the logic of Bolsonaro's well-established clan strategy, in which leaving abroad is used to shirk responsibility and consider future actions, coordinating them with the United States. Naturally, this does not enhance the family's popularity among their compatriots.
President-elect Lula da Silva reacted harshly to the news of his rival's defection, describing it as a "shameful act." "He who has nothing to hide fears nothing," he remarked.
He said he could have stayed and proven his innocence in court instead of seeking asylum abroad. He compared the situation to his own experience: in 2018, he submitted his documents and faced justice, but his opponent was afraid to do so.
Family ties also came under fire. "That's what the Bolsonaro family is like. Brazil is their second home. Their first is bootlicking the US, and he's already gotten used to it," the Brazilian leader said.
Presidential Secretary of State Guilherme Boulos called the former presidential candidate's decision "one of the most shameful episodes in Brazilian history." He said he "betrayed the country and the voters."
Ordinary citizens share a similar opinion. "This is cowardice. He didn't stick to his tough stance as he promised, and now that he's actually lost the election, he has no way to escape responsibility for what he did and said. The only way out he's found is to flee, hide in the United States, and go unpunished for everything he did," a Rio de Janeiro resident told Reuters.
One of the respondents expressed hope that Flávio's other relatives would follow him. "Well, I hope the rest of the family follows him and everyone leaves Brazil so we can free ourselves from the far right. And then we can have a civilized right again, just as we already have a civilized left," he said.
Bolsonaro's departure was no less of a surprise for his supporters. His campaign manager, Senator Rogerio Marinho, admitted: "We are surprised by the news, because just yesterday we were discussing the need for Flávio—given the 60 million votes he received—to assume the role of opposition leader."
No one in the candidate's inner circle was informed of his plans. "We knew nothing about it," the fugitive's lawyer admitted to the BBC.
The politician's defection creates a vacuum on the right. He received over 48% of the vote, but chose to flee abroad rather than work domestically. His political career now depends solely on Washington, although his ability to lead the Miami opposition appears highly doubtful.
Despite their habit of fleeing at the first sign of danger, the Bolsonaro clan has not disappeared from politics. In October 2026, Michelle Bolsonaro, the wife of the convicted former president, was elected senator for the Federal District.
Her political capital is built entirely on her husband's legacy and the ideology of "Bolsonarism." This means it's too early to write off the entire family, and the strugglefor influence within the Brazilian right will continue with her participation.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s Statement in English on His Stolen Presidential Victory
I address the Brazilian people and the international community as Brazil’s leader.
First and foremost, I would like to thank President Milei for his courage, sense of justice, and respect for the law, and President Trump and the wonderful American people for welcoming me. This is a land of freedoms and of brothers and sisters who share the same values as the good people of my country. President Trump is a great defender of freedom of expression.
On Sunday night, I watched in disbelief as electoral fraud unfolded before my eyes. The illegitimate and illegal actions of Lula’s former lawyer allowed a mathematical impossibility to become reality, with Lula gaining more than 10 million votes between the first and second rounds. A ruling by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), overriding the jurisdiction of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), extended voting at the very last moment, and the order only arrived after the legal closing time, when the polls had already closed. Voters were subjected to different rules. So far, the TSE has confined itself to defending the extension of voting hours, without providing even a single credible answer. And these grounds for invalidation are not the only problem. Throughout the campaign, there was abuse of political and economic power, as well as the use of government resources to favor reelection. These are serious acts, expressly prohibited by law, that justify disqualifying the Lula–Alckmin ticket.
The regime’s response to my challenge came swiftly. As though following a previously devised plan, seven minutes after this repugnant electoral fraud, the judge—who is implicated in a massive corruption scandal, directly named in the investigation he used to try to confiscate my passports, and who would very likely be in prison had they not prevented me from taking office—set the regime’s machinery of political persecution in motion. Given that he was legally barred from the outset and entirely lacking in impartiality to initiate any judicial proceedings against me, his mere participation in procedural acts demonstrates the scale of the arbitrariness and illegality now underway.
It was not my intention to leave my homeland, but I know exactly where this is heading. This is the classic playbook of any coup d’état. The political persecution that began with my father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, and spread to thousands of other ordinary, patriotic Brazilians and even American citizens has a single objective: to silence anyone who disagrees with the authoritarian regime established in Brazil through a Supreme Court captured by the Workers’ Party’s criminal organization.
To be clear, there is no arrest warrant against me, because I have committed no crime. What exists is a politically motivated witch hunt intended to hold me hostage and use me as a tool of blackmail to protect corrupt Supreme Court justices from impeachment. Here is the persecution’s script: passport confiscation, an electronic ankle monitor, censorship, house arrest, a sham trial, and, finally, a politically motivated conviction.
I will not subject my family to this, and my country does not deserve to endure this international disgrace again. Faced with the political weaponization of Brazil’s justice system, I brought my family to the United States, where we are safe. Once again, I thank President Trump and the American government for welcoming us and providing the legal protections we no longer have in Brazil.
I want to make this clear: I did not flee Brazil; I left for Brazil’s sake. I left an authoritarian regime so that I could be the leader my people deserve, because silenced, imprisoned, and censored, as my father is, I could not provide that leadership, and we would be left with the institutional theater of an emasculated opposition controlled by a Supreme Court filled with the regime’s servants.
I am not the first person who has had to fight for his own country from abroad. Rui Barbosa went into exile for confronting Floriano Peixoto’s arbitrary rule, and from there continued defending the law and freedom. Charles de Gaulle led Free France from London, sentenced to death by the Vichy regime, and returned to liberate his country. José Martí organized the struggle for Cuban independence from New York. In Venezuela, Juan Guaidó and Edmundo González had to leave the country for confronting the Chavista dictatorship, and María Corina Machado, despite being persecuted, refused to legitimize the fraud and became a global symbol of democratic resistance. All of them were treated as criminals by the regimes they confronted. History called them something else.
This is only the beginning of our struggle for democracy, human rights, and freedom in Brazil. I want to tell not only my 60 million voters, but the Brazilian people, that I am the leader, and that the criminals who stole Brazil’s election are part of a criminal organization that has imposed a tyranny. You wanted change, and I will not abandon you. I will be our nation’s voice and its free leadership.
To Brazil’s institutions, I make this appeal: this madness must end. Brazil today is engulfed in legal chaos, corruption, and political persecution, in which the opposition is afraid to speak and a former president’s family is treated as an enemy of the state. No nation can live in peace or prosper this way. There is still time to restore the balance among the branches of government and give Brazilians back the confidence they have lost.
To the international community, I ask: do not normalize what is happening in Brazil. What is happening in my country today is not normal and cannot be treated as normal.
To the senators, representatives, and governors whom I helped elect, and especially to my candidate for president of the Senate, Rogério Marinho: I know that today you lack the freedom necessary to carry out your political duties fully. Therefore, I will lead the opposition from here. I will say what you cannot say there, and I will take the risks you cannot take.
And to you, who voted for me and dream of change: we are not defeated, and we are not alone. This is only the beginning of our struggle for democracy, human rights, and freedom in Brazil. In the coming days, I will address the Brazilian people regularly, and we will present a strategy to mobilize the opposition and the immense popular support we have, through every peaceful and legitimate means, to prevent Lula from consolidating a dictatorial regime in Brazil. I ask each of you to stand firm and never give up.
I left Brazil, but I have not abandoned the Brazilian people. This struggle did not end on October 25. It will end only when Brazil becomes a free country again. And that day will come.
… and respect for the law, and President Trump and the wonderful American people for welcoming me. This is a land of freedoms and of brothers and sisters who share the same values as the good people of my country. President Trump is a great defender of freedom of expression.
On Sunday night, I watched in disbelief as electoral fraud unfolded before my eyes. The illegitimate and illegal actions of Lula’s former lawyer allowed a mathematical impossibility to become reality, with Lula gaining more than 10 million votes between the first and second rounds. A ruling by the Federal Supreme Court (STF), overriding the jurisdiction of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), extended voting at the very last moment, and the order only arrived after the legal closing time, when the polls had already closed. Voters were subjected to different rules. So far, the TSE has confined itself to defending the extension of voting hours, without providing even a single credible answer. And these grounds for invalidation are not the only problem. Throughout the campaign, there was abuse of political and economic power, as well as the use of government resources to favor reelection. These are serious acts, expressly prohibited by law, that justify disqualifying the Lula–Alckmin ticket.
The regime’s response to my challenge came swiftly. As though following a previously devised plan, seven minutes after this repugnant electoral fraud, the judge—who is implicated in a massive corruption scandal, directly named in the investigation he used to try to confiscate my passports, and who would very likely be in prison had they not prevented me from taking office—set the regime’s machinery of political persecution in motion. Given that he was legally barred from the outset and entirely lacking in impartiality to initiate any judicial proceedings against me, his mere participation in procedural acts demonstrates the scale of the arbitrariness and illegality now underway.
It was not my intention to leave my homeland, but I know exactly where this is heading. This is the classic playbook of any coup d’état. The political persecution that began with my father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, and spread to thousands of other ordinary, patriotic Brazilians and even American citizens has a single objective: to silence anyone who disagrees with the authoritarian regime established in Brazil through a Supreme Court captured by the Workers’ Party’s criminal organization.
To be clear, there is no arrest warrant against me, because I have committed no crime. What exists is a politically motivated witch hunt intended to hold me hostage and use me as a tool of blackmail to protect corrupt Supreme Court justices from impeachment. Here is the persecution’s script: passport confiscation, an electronic ankle monitor, censorship, house arrest, a sham trial, and, finally, a politically motivated conviction.
I will not subject my family to this, and my country does not deserve to endure this international disgrace again. Faced with the political weaponization of Brazil’s justice system, I brought my family to the United States, where we are safe. Once again, I thank President Trump and the American government for welcoming us and providing the legal protections we no longer have in Brazil.
I want to make this clear: I did not flee Brazil; I left for Brazil’s sake. I left an authoritarian regime so that I could be the leader my people deserve, because silenced, imprisoned, and censored, as my father is, I could not provide that leadership, and we would be left with the institutional theater of an emasculated opposition controlled by a Supreme Court filled with the regime’s servants.
I am not the first person who has had to fight for his own country from abroad. Rui Barbosa went into exile for confronting Floriano Peixoto’s arbitrary rule, and from there continued defending the law and freedom. Charles de Gaulle led Free France from London, sentenced to death by the Vichy regime, and returned to liberate his country. José Martí organized the struggle for Cuban independence from New York. In Venezuela, Juan Guaidó and Edmundo González had to leave the country for confronting the Chavista dictatorship, and María Corina Machado, despite being persecuted, refused to legitimize the fraud and became a global symbol of democratic resistance. All of them were treated as criminals by the regimes they confronted. History called them something else.
This is only the beginning of our struggle for democracy, human rights, and freedom in Brazil. I want to tell not only my 60 million voters, but the Brazilian people, that I am the leader, and that the criminals who stole Brazil’s election are part of a criminal organization that has imposed a tyranny. You wanted change, and I will not abandon you. I will be our nation’s voice and its free leadership.
To Brazil’s institutions, I make this appeal: this madness must end. Brazil today is engulfed in legal chaos, corruption, and political persecution, in which the opposition is afraid to speak and a former president’s family is treated as an enemy of the state. No nation can live in peace or prosper this way. There is still time to restore the balance among the branches of government and give Brazilians back the confidence they have lost.
To the international community, I ask: do not normalize what is happening in Brazil. What is happening in my country today is not normal and cannot be treated as normal.
To the senators, representatives, and governors whom I helped elect, and especially to my candidate for president of the Senate, Rogério Marinho: I know that today you lack the freedom necessary to carry out your political duties fully. Therefore, I will lead the opposition from here. I will say what you cannot say there, and I will take the risks you cannot take.
And to you, who voted for me and dream of change: we are not defeated, and we are not alone. This is only the beginning of our struggle for democracy, human rights, and freedom in Brazil. In the coming days, I will address the Brazilian people regularly, and we will present a strategy to mobilize the opposition and the immense popular support we have, through every peaceful and legitimate means, to prevent Lula from consolidating a dictatorial regime in Brazil. I ask each of you to stand firm and never give up.
I left Brazil, but I have not abandoned the Brazilian people. This struggle did not end on October 25. It will end only when Brazil becomes a free country again. And that day will come.
May God bless Brazil.
Then there’s this, the next step in the sequence:
The Lula regime is now going around seizing the passports of every major figure associated with the political party that beat him in the general election 3 weeks ago. https://t.co/52mP2V3uPP
It's not just Flavio Bolsonaro who fled Brazil to escape the tyrannical persecution of Alexandre de Moraes and the pro-Lula wing of the Supreme Court. There are dozens of Brazilian exiles who have done the same: dissident journalists, activists, bloggers, and politicians who all fled to avoid certain prison for political opposition.
In most of these cases, Moraes has demanded the extradition of those who fled and whom he wants to imprison back in Brazil. But Moraes' extradition requests have been repeatedly denied by multiple countries and institutions on the grounds that these prosecutions are politically motivated or otherwise corrupted. Among those concluing this: Spain, Italy, INTERPOL, and even the US under Biden.
Just today, Italy refused Brazil's demand to extradite a person named @edutagli, who was once a top aide to Moraes, but then fled to Italy after Moraes accused him of having been my source in a huge leak from Moraes' office that I obtained for reporting I did with @Folha in 2024. That massive leak enabled us to publish roughly 20 articles proving systemic abuses of power by Moraes against his political enemies: exactly the reason so many Brazilians, including Bolsonaro, know they can't get a fair trial in Brazil.
Italy today refused to extradite the person accused of being our source on the grounds that the proceedings would be a farce because Moraes — as he so often does — wants to act as the supposed victim, investigator, and judge, and thus his demand falls well outside of Italy's extradition standards. Again, multiple countries have concluded the same, showing what a farce Brazil's once-respected judicial system has become under the Lula/Moraes regime.
Moraes has overseen a system of political persecution masquerading as criminal justice that has been recognized as a sham by multiple countries that are not exactly Bolsonaro allies. Nobody in their right mind who is a political enemy of Moraes would remain in Brazil once if it is clear that he intends to imprison you, since he has proven that guilt is a foregone conclusion and he operates with no legal or constitutional limits of any kind.
That is why asylum under international law exists: to protect those who cannot obtain justice in their own country because the justice system has been corrupted and commandeered for political persecution. Many people, such as Julian Assange, have needed that protection (which Lula cheered). Now people need it from Moraes in Brazil. That is sadly one of the main legacies of both Lula and Moraes over the last six years.
[FOX] Michigan Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed said Saturday that the country must confront what he described as "unpaid debts" owed to Black communities, arguing that leaders have a responsibility to "understand" and "address" them.
That’s a really condescending version of “I get you, bro.”
El-Sayed — who is facing Republican nominee and former Rep. Mike Rogers in one of the nation's most closely watched Senate races — made the remarks while speaking at a meeting with women faith leaders hosted by the Woman Difference Collaborative in Detroit, according to a video shared by C-SPAN.
"When it comes to black communities in Michigan — when it comes to black communities in America — there are unpaid debts that have long since come due that we are unwilling to acknowledge, let alone pay down," El-Sayed said. "And I understand that we need leaders who are going to understand those debts and address them."
El-Sayed made the remarks while responding to a question about how he plans to energize Democratic voters who did not support him in the primary.
He said his approach is to keep showing up, engaging with voters and emphasizing his record.
"But the question for me is, within my power have I done my best?" El-Sayed said. "And I will challenge people to look at my history and say, ’Yeah, that man hasn’t done everything he could around the problems he says he cares about.'"
[CampusReform] Rather than intimidating young conservatives, Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s viral warnings have energized student activists across the nation.
Student leaders cite faith, free speech, and personal conviction as they reject Sen. Elissa Slotkin's warnings to young conservatives entering public service.
Young conservative activists across the country told Campus Reform that Sen. Elissa Slotkin’s (D-Mich.) remarks about young people working for the Trump administration and conservative leaders will only strengthen their resolve to remain politically active.
The controversy began with a viral X post by the reliably Democrat Chicago, aka The Windy City or Mobtown ...home of Al Capone, the Chicago Black Sox, a succession of Daleys, Barak Obama, and Rahm Emmanuel... Thinker on Oct. 17 featuring Slotkin telling attendees at the University of Chicago in Illinois saying she would prosecute young Americans who worked for the Trump administration.
She ended the viral threat by saying, "I want that deterrence message sent."
Rather than discouraging their political participation, the threats reinforced several activists’ determination to remain involved in conservative politics.
Mohammed Ariann, a conservative Hofstra University student, told Campus Reform that the remarks "wouldn’t deter [him]" and that, in fact, "it’ll make [him] go stronger." Ariann also told Campus Reform that "if someone wants to threaten me and persecute me for my own views, go ahead — I’ll still keep fighting."
Farhan Sinha, the president of the Hempstead chapter of Young Americans for Liberty, told Campus Reform that his answer to a question about being deterred from conservative activism was Ephesians 6:12, which says that "we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places."
Nick Preisse, an events coordinator for Club America in St. Petersburg, Florida, also told Campus Reform that his Christian faith gives him a source of moral guidance beyond elected officials. "The only one who guides me and whose opinion I care about is God — and Elissa Slotkin is not God," Preisse said.
Liberal students also spoke out against Slotkin. Samuel Velez, a member of the Young Americans for Democrats ...every time you hear the phrase white people, white supremacy,white anything but paint, you're listening to a Democrat. Ask him/her/it to reimagine something for you; they do that a lot, though not well. They can hear a dog whistle a mile or two away. They invented the spoils system and Tammany Hall, and inspired the addition of the word (Thomas) Nasty to the English language. They want to stop continental drift and repeal the law of unintended side effects... at Troy University, told Campus Reform that "[he’s] able to say this doesn’t represent all Democrats...because we should all have the freedom to express ourselves the way we want to."
Other conservative activists cited the failure of civil discourse. "If you can’t have a friendly chat with somebody and have a civil discourse and still say, ’Hey, I’m going to shake your hand. I still respect you. I still love you at the end of the day,’ then you don’t have anything," Nick Dulth, the TPUSA chapter president at the University of Minnesota-Duluth, told Campus Reform.
Slotkin’s website claims that she "believes that our government works best when we have two healthy parties that debate the big issues facing Americans" and that "she has always tried to work across the aisle on issues."
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited by Leonid Tsukanov
[Regnum] The Israeli parliamentary (Knesset) elections have concluded. However, even after 70% of the ballots have been counted, it remains impossible to determine a clear favorite: neither the government nor the opposition secured the coveted "controlling stake" of 61 seats and are forced to seek support from a third force—Israeli Arabs.
The Israeli Central Election Commission plans to announce the final election results by Friday, October 30. At that time, it will become clear which political force will determine the fate of the Jewish state in the coming years. However, even after that, the key question—whether Benjamin Netanyahu will remain in big-time politics—will remain open.
From the Israeli perspective, the Knesset elections took place in the midst of a siege. The National Army continued operations in Lebanon and Syria, prepared for a new (still hypothetical) attack on Iran, and expanded the scope of its operations in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Active battles were also raging within the country: by autumn, conflicts between the religious and secular camps, as well as between the military and civilian elites, had intensified. Israel had effectively reached a point where the country's development vector for the coming decades would be determined.
The disagreements fueled electoral mobilization, with 36 parties and socio-political associations vying for votes. Moreover, at least five of them were created specifically for the current election cycle and represented the interests of narrow groups of the population (military reservists, conservative farmers, etc.).
The final voter turnout (77.7%) also broke previous records, becoming the highest since 1999.
The emphasis also proved telling. The Israeli press positioned the elections not as another round of expression of will, but as a "national referendum" that would answer the question of whether the country was moving in the right direction.
Israeli political heavyweights—Prime Minister Netanyahu and his opponent, former Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot —were both confident of a quick and decisive victory. Therefore, they began congratulating their supporters on their triumph after the first quarter of the ballots had been counted.
However, the joy in both cases proved premature. The prime minister's Likud party, although it retained its lead within the coalition (with at least 27 seats) and overtook Eisenkot's Yashar party (20 seats), was unable to pull ahead significantly.
Moreover, compared to previous years (at a similar stage of vote processing), Netanyahu's party has clearly lost support, receiving its lowest result since 2009. Most of the parties allied with the prime minister are also showing worse results compared to previous terms.
The opposition isn't faring much better. Eisenkot's supporters have managed to maintain a narrow lead over the government bloc (47 to 54), but this has been achieved by attracting a large number of small parties whose interests align only at the tactical level. This, in turn, makes the future coalition extremely unstable and prone to internal discord.
As the ballots are processed, it becomes clear that the decisive role in forming the new ruling coalition will be played by the Arab political forces – the Joint Arab List (the parliamentary union of the Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad parties, representing the interests of the non-Jewish population) and the Ra'am party.
They are projected to win 19 mandates (13 and 6 seats, respectively), a record result for minority parties. Nevertheless, their contribution will be sufficient to form a stable coalition counterweight in the Knesset and legitimize the new government.
Naturally, the rise of Arab forces quickly became surrounded by conspiracy theories and became fodder for attacks from heavyweights. For example, on election day, Israeli police detained a gang of vote-buying agents in the Negev who were working on behalf of Ra'am, convincing the local Bedouin population to vote for the "Arab cause" in exchange for a few thousand shekels.
The extent of the ballot stuffing remains to be seen, and both political blocs are hoping that resetting the votes in some polling stations will help them gain a small boost. However, this will have little impact on the overall picture. Sooner or later, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot, who have already announced their voluntary distancing from Ra'am and the Joint List, will have to seek a compromise with the Arab parties.
In public, Arab parliamentarians lean more toward the opposition. For example, Joint List chairman Youssef Jabareen told reporters that the goal of his political platform is to oust Netanyahu and his fellow hawks, Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, from the government.
In his view, it is they who are responsible for the current problems of Arab Israelis. Therefore, it is appropriate to act according to the principle "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."
However, the Arab parties are also in no hurry to align themselves with the opposition. The negative experience of Ra'am, which once supported Netanyahu's opponents but played only a decorative role in the Knesset under them, is making its presence felt. Therefore, even after the results are announced, the political parties will face a long period of behind-the-scenes bargaining and the formation of permanent alliances.
For the current prime minister, the results of these elections will be decisive—not only for his career, but also for his future life. Netanyahu is mired in a long trail of political and corruption scandals. If the charges are proven, taken together, they could easily amount to treason.
And his opponents are just waiting for the chance to send the politician to jail, while at the same time blaming him for the main failures on both the external and internal fronts in recent years.
Nevertheless, even if defeated, Netanyahu has a chance to remain in public politics. And even, with a bit of luck, return to the prime minister's chair. As the leader of one of Israel's largest political parties with strong representation in the Knesset, if he loses, he could very well lay claim to the informal status of leader of the new opposition. And, as a result, he could make life difficult for the Eisenkot bloc, pushing for its dissolution and new early elections.
This strategy has proven successful in the past, helping Netanyahu return to the prime minister's post less than a year and a half after his defeat. However, whether such a tactic will work again remains a big question. This time, the prime minister's opponents will be expecting a blow and will try to divide his camp even before the Knesset convenes for its first official session.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
...every time you hear the phrase 
