[IsraelTimes] Tens of millions of dollars have been bet on the timeline for a possible US strike on Iran on the Polymarket prediction market.
Users have lost and won tens of millions of dollars on the platform over the past few months as the dates they wagered for strikes have now passed.
Further millions have been placed on the possibility of the ousting of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Odds are highest for an airstrike by June 30, at 61 percent, 1% if it happens today, and 2% tomorrow.
Polymarket is one of the largest prediction markets in the world, where its users can fund event contracts through cryptocurrency, debit or credit cards and bank transfers.
The commercial use of prediction markets has skyrocketed in recent years, opening the door for people to wager their money on the likelihood of a growing list of future events. But despite some eye-catching windfalls, traders still lose money every day.
There have been accusations of manipulations and insider trading by users of the platform. Last month, the bulk of one trader’s bids were made mere hours before US President Donald Trump announced the surprise nighttime raid that led to former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s capture, fueling online suspicions of potential insider trading because of the timing of the wagers and the trader’s narrow activity on the platform.
#1
Maybe that’s what makes Congressmen angry when Trump doesn’t get authorization.
Posted by: Super Hose ||
02/02/2026 6:46 Comments ||
Top||
#2
Someone tell me why we should regime change Iran?
Why the hell else do we have dozens of aircraft carriers if not to do exactly this? It's why we did in Libya. It worked! Gaddafi ended up getting stabbed to death up the asshole by a Bowie knife! One of America's primary enemies in the middle east is GONE. In its place is a failed state that is a threat to nobody.
American interests first.
Sudan 🇸🇩 MAP UPDATE: the situation in Sudan as of 01/02/2026.
As the dry season has made its entry the SAF is slowly regaining the initiative on the battlefield. This past month government forces broke the two-year siege on the town of Dilling, to the relief of thousands. pic.twitter.com/nJ69hXTEky
[Breitbart] The leaders of the far-left Spanish Podemos party celebrated on Saturday the “victory” of the mass amnesty for around half a million illegals and hailed the achievement as a step toward the “replacement” of right-wing Spaniards.
Appearing at a campaign event in Zaragoza, Podemos Secretary General Ione Belarra and the party’s leading Member of the European Parliament, Irene Montero, openly embraced the project of demographic displacement as an electoral strategy.
They explained that this week’s deal brokered with the Socialist government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to grant amnesty to over 500,000 illegals was merely the first step and that the ultimate goal was to either grant them citizenship or to change the law to allow for migrants to vote in national elections, El Mundo reported.
Party leader Belarra compared the battle to allow migrants to vote to the women’s suffrage movement, saying that Spain has a “racist, property-based” voting system and that her party will “fight for migrants’ right to vote. If you live here, you have to have the right to vote here.”
While conservative and populist opponents of the amnesty have criticised the left for seeking to manipulate the polity to their own aims, Podemos MEP Irene Montero openly admitted as much, but claimed that it was righteous to replace her fellow countrymen.
“I wish for replacement theory, I wish we could sweep this country of fascists and racists with migrants, with working people,” she said.
“Of course, I want there to be replacement: replacement of fascists, replacement of racists, replacement of freeloaders, and that we can do it with working people, whatever their skin colour may be.”
Montero, who is widely expected to represent Podemos as a prime ministerial candidate in the 2027 general election, also admitted that the amnesty of the illegal migrants is ultimately intended to see them become voters.
“Of course, we want them to vote. We’ve obtained papers, regularisation now, and now we’re going for citizenship or to change the law so they can vote, of course,” the far leftist MEP said.
While the ‘Great Replacement’ has long been downplayed as a conspiracy theory by the legacy media, it has increasingly become a rallying cry for far-left politicians in Europe. Indeed, last month, French former presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon also openly embraced the term, while boasting that around one in four French citizens has at least one foreign-born grandparent.
Responding to Montero, the leader of the anti-mass migration VOX party, Santiago Abascal said: “This is [Prime Minister] Sánchez’s plan. He disguises it more. But this is the plan of Sánchez and of Brussels. And it is being carried out there with the support of the European PP [People’s Party]. WE ARE NOT GOING TO ALLOW IT.”
Meanwhile, the leader of the centre-right People’s Party (PP), Alberto Núñez Feijóo, has called on Brussels to intervene to stop Madrid’s amnesty programme, arguing that due to the internal open borders of the Schengen zone, the mass regularisation of illegals would directly impact the other 26 member states. However, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and her European People’s Party allies have reportedly said that the decision will be left up to the Spanish government.
Critics have also warned that the amnesty could result in potentially millions more arrivals in Spain, through the familial chain migration process and by incentivising more illegals to enter on the hope of another future amnesty.
The mooted amnesty may prove to be a critical issue in the upcoming 2027 general election. According to a survey this week from Sigma Dos, VOX is projected to win 17.8 per cent of the vote, up from 12.3 per cent in 2023. The centre-right PP would win 32.4 per cent, slightly down from the 33.1 per cent they won three years ago. The combined strength of the two right-wing parties would be enough to control parliament and form a coalition government.
It remains to be seen if the PP will commit to overturning the amnesty if elected next year. However, party leader Feijóo said on Saturday: “The massive regularisation by the Government will put pressure on public services, strain the housing market, and create coexistence problems. Solidarity without control is an intolerable political negligence.”
Thousands of families have fled Pakistan’s Tirah Valley after mosque warnings of possible military operations against militants near the Afghanistan border.https://t.co/jWFg9Jf4D5pic.twitter.com/CiAuKraq1Q
[Rudaw] About 450 Islamic State ...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear western pols talk they're not really Moslems.... (ISIS) murderous Moslems have been transferred from Syria to Iraq, Iraq’s foreign ministry reported Sunday, noting that an estimated 7,000 murderous Moslems are set to be repatriated in total.
Hisham al-Alawi, undersecretary at the Iraqi foreign ministry, told the state-run Iraqi News Agency (INA) the number of ISIS murderous Moslems returned to the country so far "is very limited out of the 7,000 present in Syria," noting that some held senior positions within "the terrorist ISIS organization."
"The vast majority remain in Syrian prisons and have not been transferred," Alawi said, adding that the detainees "belong to various nationalities," he said.
He further stated that around 2,000 of the 7,000 ISIS murderous Moslems in Syria had previously been identified as Iraqi nationals, some of whom have already been returned.
Iraqi authorities are currently reviewing the cases of those repatriated, Alawi said, noting that detainees "who committed crimes are being referred to the judiciary, while those whose guilt has not been proven will be transferred to rehabilitation centers for assessment."
The foreign ministry official also stated that many ISIS murderous Moslems detained in Syria are foreign nationals, "representing more than 40" countries. Iraq has repeatedly urged these countries to take responsibility for their citizens and "deal with them according to their own laws," Alawi said, adding that the response "has not been strong from most countries."
ISIS declared its so-called caliphate across Iraq and Syria in 2014, seizing large swathes of territory in both countries. It was defeated territorially in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019.
The Iraqi government has consistently rejected proposals to try large numbers of foreign ISIS murderous Moslems inside Iraq, maintaining that their home countries must prosecute their citizens.
Last week, Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein said Baghdad is prepared to receive ISIS prisoners previously held in facilities controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in northeast Syria (Rojava). He emphasized, however, that the financial and security responsibilities of the process should not fall solely on Iraq.
"We have decided that if there is a case of handing over these prisoners to Iraq, we are ready to receive them and transfer them to Iraqi prisons," Hussein said.
Separately, in a Monday interview with Rudaw, the top Iraqi diplomat warned that ISIS could still engage in "terrorist activity," highlighting the risks posed by thousands of ISIS prisoners held in Syria.
"ISIS remains, and it exists," Hussein said.
Despite its territorial defeat in Iraq and Syria, ISIS remnants continue to pose an ongoing threat to international security.
Hussein stressed that while ISIS is unlikely to regain foothold, "terrorist activity is always dangerous." He expressed serious concern over thousands of ISIS detainees in SDF-managed prisons - particularly in northeastern Syria’s (Rojava) Hasaka province - warning that their escape or release would threaten Iraq and neighboring countries.
Posted by: trailing wife ||
02/02/2026 2026-02-02 02:38 ||
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Link ||
[1818 views]
Top|| File under: Islamic State
[IsraelTimes] The Rafah Border Crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt opened Sunday for a day of systems checks and tests ahead of its expected opening for pedestrians Monday, Israel’s Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) agency said.
While COGAT said that the crossing between Gaza and Egypt had reopened and that a “pilot is underway to test and assess the operation of the crossing,” no pedestrians would actually be able to cross the border until Monday, despite earlier statements saying pedestrians would begin crossing on Sunday.
“The movement of residents in both directions, entry and exit to and from Gaza, is expected to begin tomorrow,” said the agency, the Defense Ministry body for Palestinian civilian affairs.
COGAT said that the crossing would open for the “limited passage” of Gazan Palestinians in both directions, in accordance with the ceasefire deal. It said the so-called “pilot phase” on Sunday was being “conducted in coordination with the European Union Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM), Egypt, and all relevant stakeholders,” and “all involved parties are carrying out a series of preliminary preparations aimed at increasing readiness for full operation of the crossing.”
“The actual passage of residents in both directions will begin upon completion of these preparations,” it added.
[IsraelTimes] Israel will move ahead with its decision to ban Doctors Without Borders (MSF) from working in the Gaza Strip, says the Diaspora Affairs Ministry.
"This follows a substantial and ongoing violation of existing registration procedures designed to facilitate legitimate humanitarian activity while preventing the misuse of humanitarian cover for hostile activities and terrorism," says the ministry in a statement. "The violation involves MSF’s failure to submit lists of local employees, a requirement applicable to all humanitarian organizations operating in the region."
On January 1, Israel vowed to enforce a ban on the activities of 37 international NGOs operating in Gaza, including MSF, over their failure to comply with stringent new "security and transparency" requirements concerning their employees.
Looks like someone has terrorists working for them!
I wonder how many paragliders they smuggled in in crates marked HUMANITARIAN AID?
#3
I have had a similar experience NN2. The rank and file doctors are usually very good and are there for the right causes. The mid-level and above... corrupt as hell and not worth the oxygen they breathe.
[IsraelTimes] Tehran rejects demands for curbs on its ballistic missiles, support for terror groups; PM meets with Zamir after IDF chief’s DC visit; US says missile destroyer has left Eilat.
Maybe it won’t be taqqiya and hudnas, but that’s the way the smart money bets.
[IsraelTimes] American airstrikes on Iran are not imminent since the United States military is still deploying additional air defense systems to the Middle East to bolster protection for Israel and its Arab allies, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing US officials.
According to the report, the Pentagon is moving THAAD and Patriot air defenses to bases with US personnel across the Middle East.
US air defenses, in addition to those operated by Israel, were crucial to protecting the country during the 12-day war with Iran in 2025, and two previous missile and drone attacks launched by the Islamic Republic in 2024.
Last month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Donald Trump to delay potential plans for an American strike on Iran, the New York Times reported, citing a senior US official.
The White House later confirmed that the two leaders had spoken by phone, but did not give details of the conversation.
The deal, involving Trump-backed crypto firm World Liberty Financial, was signed on January 16, 2025, by Eric Trump and executives tied to Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE's national security adviser and brother of the country's president.
The previously undisclosed deal was confirmed by the Wall Street Journal, company documents and others familiar with the matter.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
[Regnum] On February 1, the administration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian published a list of the names of those killed during the unrest that began in the country in late December 2025. And those dead but unnamed? How many of them are there?
The death toll stands at 3,117, according to a statement from the Iranian presidential administration on social media. The names of 2,986 of them have been published, as the identities of the remaining 131 are being established.
The list contains the first and last names of the deceased, as well as the last six digits of each person's national identity card.
Iranian authorities previously reported that 2,427 civilians and security forces, as well as 690 terrorists, were killed during the protests.
In late December 2025, protests erupted in Iran following a sharp decline in the national currency. These escalated into armed clashes with police and attacks on government buildings.
US President Donald Trump called on rioters to seize government buildings and promised Washington's assistance. He also threatened Iran with military strikes.
Iranian authorities claimed the unrest was provoked by the United States and Israel. Tehran later announced that the situation had returned to normal.
The Kremlin called on the parties to the conflict over Iran to exercise restraint and negotiate. On January 22, the Russian Foreign Ministry recommended postponing trips to Iran until the situation in the republic is fully normalized.
Posted by: badanov ||
02/02/2026 00:00 ||
Comments ||
Link ||
[1764 views]
Top|| File under: Govt of Iran
#1
Now the Family of each of those 2,986 will be hunted down for questioning using extreme methods.
The Iranian Government is a text book example of an uncontrolled group with an extreme radical agenda, who have taken power.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that they were al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're really very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling 
