Hi there, !
Today Fri 01/09/2026 Thu 01/08/2026 Wed 01/07/2026 Tue 01/06/2026 Mon 01/05/2026 Sun 01/04/2026 Sat 01/03/2026 Archives
Rantburg
582781 articles and 1984928 comments are archived on Rantburg.

Today: 70 articles and 184 comments as of 4:56.
Post a news link    Post your own article   
Area: WoT Operations    WoT Background    Non-WoT    Local News    Politix   
At least 35 people, including 4 children, killed in Iran protests, rights group says
Today's Headlines
Headline Comments [Views]
Page 4: Opinion
1 14:16 Procopius2k [1768] 
0 [1762] 
0 [1774] 
4 13:39 Abu Uluque [1772] 
3 12:19 ed in texas [1777] 
1 01:26 Grom the Affective [1768] 
5 20:49 Gerthudion Bucket9415 [1812] 
Page 1: WoT Operations
8 17:46 Procopius2k [1772]
0 [1766]
0 [1810]
0 [1770]
0 [1765]
0 [1774]
3 13:11 Old Patriot [1795]
0 [1771]
9 18:46 Every day Wildcat(KSU) [1805]
1 00:07 chris [1824]
0 [1779]
4 15:46 DarthVader [1780]
1 09:55 Glenmore [1773]
0 [1788]
0 [1786]
0 [1778]
Page 2: WoT Background
4 13:40 NoMoreBS [1772]
2 19:13 Knuckles Grundy1702 [1785]
5 21:35 Skidmark [1797]
1 15:04 Thing From Snowy Mountain [1780]
0 [1773]
10 23:29 SteveS [1817]
0 [1766]
1 10:38 Grom the Affective [1764]
0 [1771]
0 [1762]
2 13:20 mossomo [1763]
0 [1767]
2 05:24 Jairong+Scourge+of+the+Gepids2435 [1764]
6 16:50 Rambler [1773]
7 14:22 Frank G [1818]
4 18:55 Thing From Snowy Mountain [1845]
12 23:25 SteveS [1857]
3 10:59 Grom the Affective [1811]
3 06:46 Frank G [1823]
0 [1776]
7 15:14 DarthVader [1785]
2 05:54 Paco Paco [1775]
3 09:32 Procopius2k [1775]
Page 3: Non-WoT
0 [1761]
4 18:42 Frank G [1797]
0 [1765]
5 22:04 Frank G [1805]
0 [1752]
7 13:46 Abu Uluque [1767]
0 [1786]
1 12:43 Skidmark [1831]
Page 5: Russia-Former Soviet Union
1 08:30 Besoeker [1775]
0 [1773]
0 [1762]
0 [1761]
1 12:19 ed in texas [1767]
0 [1762]
0 [1768]
Page 6: Politix
20 22:19 Skidmark [1799]
2 12:23 Super Hose [1760]
6 13:43 Abu Uluque [1772]
6 11:51 Lord Garth [1772]
2 12:19 Super Hose [1778]
4 08:18 Super Hose [1772]
5 15:19 Clem+Elmish4239 [1765]
4 12:47 Abu Uluque [1757]
3 21:50 Super Hose [1844]
-Land of the Free
Bringing Venezuela Under the ‘Donroe Doctrine' Energy Umbrella
[Breitbart] The commentary surrounding the recent capture of Nicolás Maduro has focused heavily on questions of legality—whether the operation violated U.S. or international law, the precedents it sets, and the diplomatic ramifications. But the narrow focus on legal authority and diplomatic reactions obscures a more fundamental economic story: the United States has quietly assembled something approaching energy dominance across the Western Hemisphere, and the economic implications are only beginning to come into view.

Consider the numbers. The United States, Canada, and Latin America now account for over one-third of global oil production—a figure that has been steadily rising and, by some estimates, approaches 40 percent, according to Bloomberg’s commodities and energy columnist Javier Blas. Between 2012 and 2022, the Western Hemisphere’s share of world oil output jumped from 27 percent to 34 percent, with all net growth in global supply during that period coming from the Americas. The shale revolution, Canadian oil sands, Brazilian offshore discoveries, and emerging producers like Guyana have fundamentally rebalanced global energy markets.

Venezuela represents the capstone of this shift. With the world’s largest proven oil reserves, the country once produced 3.7 million barrels per day at its 1970s peak before socialist mismanagement reduced output to barely ome million barrels today. Of course, restoring even a fraction of that capacity won’t happen quickly. Rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure after decades of neglect will take years, substantial capital, and a successful handoff of political power to less destabilizing forces than the Chavez-Maduro clique. But the strategic value lies not in immediate production gains but in what control of these reserves means for long-term energy security.

Leftist French economist Gabriel Zucman’s recent analysis of the intervention, while critical of U.S. motives, actually provides data that illustrates the extraordinary economic stakes involved and the potential benefits to the U.S. economy. In 1957, at the peak of U.S. oil investment in Venezuela, American oil companies earned profits there roughly equal to what all U.S. multinationals combined earned across all industries in the rest of Latin America and continental Europe. About 12 percent of Venezuela’s entire national income flowed to U.S. shareholders, according to Zucman.

“Venezuela’s economy was growing, but the gains overwhelmingly accrued to American investors and to well-paid U.S. expatriates,” Zucman writes. “By the early 1960s, Venezuela hosted the largest American expatriate community in the world, living in towns complete with modern hospitals and pristine baseball fields.”

This arrangement ended with nationalization in 1976, and production under state control eventually collapsed. Zucman estimates that if Venezuela could reach production and profitability levels comparable to Saudi Aramco—which reports $100-150 billion in annual profits—the economic stakes would be enormous.

DERISKING THE U.S. ECONOMY THROUGH ENERGY ABUNDANCE
Of course, real strategic value extends far beyond corporate profits. Energy security matters because nearly every major U.S. recession since 1973 has featured an oil shock as either the trigger or accelerant. The 1973 Arab embargo quadrupled prices and ushered in stagflation. The 1979 Iranian Revolution doubled oil costs within a year, precipitating another deep recession. The 1990 Gulf War spike coincided with economic contraction. The 2008 oil surge to $147 per barrel intensified the Great Recession. As recently as 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent crude past $120, contributing to 40-year-high inflation that required aggressive Federal Reserve intervention.

In short, oil price volatility driven by geopolitical disruptions has consistently undermined economic stability. Research shows that a sudden 20 percent jump in oil prices can reduce U.S. manufacturing employment by roughly one percent within 18 months—tens of thousands of jobs lost as energy-intensive industries absorb higher costs for transportation, heating, and petroleum-based inputs like plastics and chemicals. Taking out the exogenous risk of far-away conflicts constraining the supply of oil paves a new path toward sustainable prosperity.

The COVID-19 pandemic provided another stark reminder of American vulnerability to exogenous shocks. Supply chain disruptions cascaded through the economy, revealing how dependent the United States remained on distant and unreliable sources for critical goods. The administration’s energy agenda—securing hemispheric oil through what some call the “Donroe Doctrine,” pursuing peace arrangements in the Middle East, and maximizing domestic production—suggests the Trump administration policymakers have learned this lesson and are working to make the U.S. economy less vulnerable to external disruptions.

The goal may be even more ambitious: to make America what Nassim Taleb calls “anti-fragile”—a system that doesn’t merely withstand shocks but actually strengthens from them. When geopolitical events stress energy production elsewhere in the world, the United States and Western Hemisphere would stand to benefit by becoming even more important to global supply. Future oil shocks wouldn’t just hit America less hard—they could accelerate the shift of production, investment, and strategic advantage toward the Americas.

AMERICA FIRST, AI, AND ENERGY INDEPENDENCE
It also could make the world a safer place—and therefore more prosperous—by securing more freedom for U.S. foreign policy. For decades, vulnerability to oil supply disruptions constrained American foreign policy. Major military action in or near oil-producing regions risked price spikes that could crater the domestic economy. That calculation has fundamentally changed. The United States now has the capacity to act without fearing that adversaries or cartels can weaponize energy supply against American interests. The examples are already visible: bombing Iranian nuclear facilities, enabling Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, and the Caracas operation itself would have been nearly unthinkable for previous administrations worried about triple-digit oil prices.

At the same time, we have more ability to avoid getting drawn into foreign disputes. Securing the Persian Gulf and balancing the powers around the Middle East’s oil supplies was central to U.S. policy for decades. It’s simply less important in a world where the Western Hemisphere has abundant energy. This is what an America First energy policy looks like. The left has long demanded a policy of “no blood for oil,” and Trump is delivering a world where that exchange is unnecessary.

The timing of this energy security breakthrough is particularly significant given an unexpected development: the American economy is becoming more energy-intensive, not less. For decades, analysts assumed we would move toward lower energy consumption per unit of GDP through efficiency gains and the shift to services. That assumption has been upended by artificial intelligence.

Large-scale AI systems require extraordinary amounts of electricity. Data centers running frontier AI models can consume as much power as small cities, and every indication suggests these demands will grow exponentially as models scale and deployment expands. Major technology companies are scrambling to secure power capacity. In an era of AI-driven competition, reliable and abundant energy becomes not just a nice-to-have but a core competitive advantage.
Posted by: Skidmark || 01/06/2026 09:27 || Comments || Link || [1762 views] Top|| File under:


Caribbean-Latin America
My Open Letter to Liberals and Democrats About Venezuela (The Body Language Guy); also Pat Buchanan explains
[YouTube] Satirist and body language expert Jesús Enrique Rosas engages in accented strong language to convey his strong feelings as a Venezuelan living in Europe, among the 9 million strong Venezuelan diaspora.
Twitchy responds to the thing at length here.
The text he riffs off in the video:




Patrick Buchanan discusses the situation on YouTube, courtesy of Besoeker: Democrats HUMILIATED After CNN BLOWS OPEN Their Maduro Hypocrisy

Posted by: Ulailet+Thud3602 || 01/06/2026 08:38 || Comments || Link || [1774 views] Top|| File under:


Vandergriff analysis of US attack and seizure of Venezuela
I highly recommend, for those on Facebook, that you also take a few minutes to read and ponder his preliminary thoughts on the subject posted here. I’d have shared it, but I can’t figure out how to copy FB posts. Hattip lotp.
[Substack] The January 3, 2026, U.S. operation in Venezuela

...a country in Central America that sits on an enormous pool of oil. Formerly the most prospereous country in the region, it became infested with Commies sniffing almost unlimited wealth. It turned out the wealth wasn't unlimited, the economy collapsed under the clownish Hugo Chavez, the murder rate exceeded places like Honduras and El Salvador. A significant proportion of the populace refugeed to Colombia and points south...

—codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve—represents a textbook example of modern maneuver warfare executed through mission command principles, aligning closely with the evolution through the generations of war framework.

I’ve long advocated for adaptive, decentralized leadership that empowers subordinates to seize initiative, much like the Prussian/German traditions that birthed Auftragstaktik (mission-type tactics). This raid embodies that ethos, contrasting sharply with the rigid, centralized planning failures seen in recent conventional operations.

GENERATIONS OF WAR CONTEXT
  • 1st Generation (line and column, attrition-based) — Obsolete for this context.

  • 2nd Generation (firepower/attrition, linear) — Echoes in large-scale conventional sieges, but not dominant here.

  • 3rd Generation (maneuver, speed, shock) — The core of this operation: rapid penetration, decisive strikes on centers of gravity (leadership), exploiting surprise and tempo to collapse enemy cohesion.

  • 4th Generation (asymmetric, non-state, blurred lines) — Elements present in the narco-terrorism framing and hybrid threats, but the U.S. applied 3rd/4th hybrid tactics.

  • 5th Generation (information, cyber, perception dominance) — Preceded by months of blockade, strikes on drug assets, and narrative control (designating Maduro’s Cartel of the Suns as terrorists).

The operation fused 3rd Generation maneuver with 5th Generation enablers: overwhelming but precise preparatory strikes to shape the battlespace, followed by a lightning coup de main by elite forces.

MANEUVER WARFARE AND MISSION COMMAND ANALYSIS
Open-source reports describe a multi-service, multi-echelon effort: Naval assets (e.g., carrier groups like USS Gerald R. Ford, amphibious ships like USS Iwo Jima) enforced a de facto blockade/siege around Venezuela for months, targeting oil tankers, drug boats, and building pressure. This set conditions by degrading logistics, air defenses, and regime confidence—classic shaping operations in maneuver theory.

When conditions ripened (intelligence from a long-term CIA source inside Venezuela detailing Maduro’s routines, diet, pets, movements), Tier 1 SOF (Delta Force, supported by 160th SOAR "Night Stalkers") executed the decisive strike. Over 150 aircraft suppressed air defenses across northern Venezuela and Caracas starting ~2:00 a.m. local time, clearing corridors for helicopter insertions.

Delta operators fast-roped into Maduro’s compound (likely in or near Fuerte Tiuna military base), captured him and his wife Cilia Flores amid resistance (U.S. forces came under fire), and exfiltrated within ~2.5—3 hours (Maduro and Flores flown out by ~3:29—4:29 a.m. ET, arriving in New York later that day).

No U.S. fatalities reported (some minor injuries possible), one helicopter damaged but mission-continued, and the HVTs were flown out via ship/helicopter to New York for charges related to narco-terrorism (indictment from 2020, bounty increased to $50 million in 2025).

This was pure mission command: Decentralized execution with commander’s intent clear ("capture HVTs, minimize U.S. losses, enable rapid exfil"). Subordinate leaders—pilots, assaulters, intel enablers—adapted in real time to terrain they’d never seen, live fire in proximity to insertions, and unexpected resistance. Synchronization was achieved not through rigid matrices but through shared understanding, rehearsals (on mock-ups), and trust in small-unit initiative.

The "small things" mattered: precise timing, overwhelming but targeted violence, and focus on the objective over micromanagement. The op involved Delta Force assaulters, FBI Hostage Rescue Team for formal arrest, 160th SOAR helicopters flying low over water, and air cover from F-22s, F-35s, F/A-18s, EA-18s, B-1s, and RPAs launched from 20 bases.

Compare to Afghanistan’s 2021 withdrawal: A massive, conventional force (BCT/MEU scale) struggled with a "simple" retrograde under political constraints, losing equipment, lives, and prestige.

Centralized MDMP bogged down planning; brigade-level focus on "big things" (moving thousands) masked low OR rates and poor small-unit basics. Here, elite units inverted that: Focus on the little things (individual skills, rehearsals, adaptability) enabled success in a complex, high-risk op.

Doctrine matters—special operations emphasize decentralized planning (quicker than standard MDMP), high training quality, and mission focus over scale. Money helps (SOF budgets), but it’s the adaptive mindset that wins.

The gap isn’t just unit quality; it’s philosophical. Regular forces train for broad, predictable tasks (deploy brigade globally); SOF for narrow, high-stakes ones with uncertainty. This validates decades of investment in Tier 1 units and 160th SOAR. The op’s speed (months prep but
The sections on the post-op transition and next steps for the Armed Forces can be read at the link.

Posted by: trailing wife || 01/06/2026 2026-01-06 00:50 || Comments || Link || [1777 views] Top|| File under: Narcos

#1  Delta is very good. There is no real constraint on them shutting down individual drug manufacturers, warehousing or shipping in Venezuela at the moment.
Posted by: Super Hose || 01/06/2026 8:44 Comments || Top||

#2  I would be very surprised if Delta didn't spend time training for this on building mock ups. The same for the helicopter pilots, only they did their training in flight simulators. Maybe I read it here, or not, but apparently they had been training for this since the beginning of December.
Posted by: Chantry || 01/06/2026 11:14 Comments || Top||

#3  Reports are the Russian and Chinese air defense radars shut down when the power stations went off. Intercept radar that depends on wall socket power? That rhymes with useless.
Posted by: ed in texas || 01/06/2026 12:19 Comments || Top||


Europe
For 14 years, a crazy eco-terrorist group has attacked Berlin's energy infrastructure with impunity. Authorities have done nothing despite enormous damages and wide-scale disruption. What is going on?
[Substack - eugyppius] The latest attack by the "Volcano Group" has caused one of the largest sustained blackouts in the history of the Federal Republic.

In the foreground (photo removed), you’ll notice a suspension bridge carrying power cables across the waters of the Treptow canal. These cables bring power to hundreds of thousands of people in southwest Berlin.

Or at least, they used to.

Early Saturday morning, lunatic eco-terrorists from the so-called "Volcano Group" attacked these cables with pyrotechnic charges, cutting off power to 45,000 households and thousands of commercial customers in the Zehlendorf, Nikolassee, Lichterfelde and Wannsee neighbourhoods of Berlin. The attack came at the start of an arctic coldsnap and unusually low, freezing temperatures. Despite these dire conditions, authorities plead that they cannot fully restore power to many customers until Thursday — five days after the attack.

Blackouts like this represent much more than an inconvenience. So many systems depend upon electricity that the sudden loss of power can easily represent a life-threatening disaster, particularly when that loss happens in the middle of winter. Without electricity, most buildings cannot be heated, and in this case thousands of structures will suffer broken pipes, water damage and mould infestations. The added stress of the cold and disruptive emergency measures will surely kill some older and more vulnerable people, even if the press never associates their deaths with this sabotage. And to all of that comes the fact that, as people are abandoning their unheated homes for hotels, entire neighbourhoods have emptied out — opening opportunities for looters to attack in total darkness because there are no street lights.

This is a huge multifaceted disaster and there are a lot of angles this post could take. The late and slack-jawed political response, for example, has been a thing to behold. Then there are the weak and revealing attempts by certain elements of the punditocracy to blame this attack on Russia; the sparing, almost reluctant media coverage; and the strangely slow pace of repairs in light of the overwhelming urgency.

Here, however, I want to ask how this was allowed to happen in the first place. It looks for all the world like authorities have allowed the eco-terrorists responsible for this assault on Berlin’s power grid to operate with impunity for years and years. I want to ask how it is that our aggressive domestic intelligence agencies, which have resources to spy on tens of thousands of alleged "right-wing extremists," have so little curiosity about the saboteurs of the Volcano Group and claim to know basically nothing about them despite the years of destruction they’ve wrought. I want to ask why, when authorities did stumble upon probable Volcano Group saboteurs a few years ago, Berlin judges were so quick to let them go.

All of this is very strange; all of it really gets the noggin joggin, as the kids say.
Posted by: DooDahMan || 01/06/2026 13:15 || Comments || Link || [1768 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Same reason Deep State has never gone after Antifa. Plausible deniability for doing dirty work they support.
Posted by: Procopius2k || 01/06/2026 14:16 Comments || Top||


Home Front: Politix
The 2026 elections will determine the future of the world for several years to come
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Evgeniya Kondakova

[REGNUM] As we look back on the past year, some events are met with the refrain, "Who could have imagined this just a few months ago!" And it's true: much is impossible to predict. But there are still some things we can definitely expect.
Predictions are hard. Especially about the future.
This category also includes elections in individual countries – and not only countries.

US CONGRESS: THE DREAM OF IMPEACHMENT
On November 3, American citizens will have to re-elect the entire House of Representatives (435 congressmen) and 1/3 of the Senate (33 seats) in midterm elections.

The outcome of the vote will affect not only how both chambers of Congress function in the coming years, but also how the remaining half of Donald Trump's presidential term unfolds.

Now his fellow party members hold a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, making it easier for the head of state to push through his initiatives and contain his political opponents.

However, in the United States, it has become customary for the party whose candidate wins the presidential election to lose the midterm elections to the lower house of Congress.

So, a shift of control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats is quite likely. Of course, not specifically because of this established pattern. But Trump himself says it's not a given that the Republicans will remain in the majority there.

And if this happens, then the next House of Representatives, with a majority of opponents of the current occupant of the White House, could, for example, launch another impeachment procedure (Trump has already given several grounds for removal from office, the most recent being the attack on Venezuela without the knowledge of Congress).

The process will, of course, stall in the Senate, where, if predictions come true, Trump's fellow party members will still hold the majority. They won't remove him from office, but they'll sap his blood. Not to mention blocking his legislative initiatives.

Even in the minority, Democrats are putting obstacles in the way of the Republican president. For example, by delaying approval of a permanent budget in lieu of a temporary one, which runs until January 30.

This creates a real risk of another shutdown, even as the US has just endured the longest government shutdown in history.

To maintain its political position, the Republican Party decided to resort to a method known as gerrymandering, or simply redrawing the boundaries of electoral districts to suit its own needs.

As a result, in Republican Texas, as the Texas Tribune notes, the president's political force will be able to obtain up to 79% of the 38 seats in the House of Representatives that the state has, instead of 66% following the 2024 elections.

However, this technique does not work everywhere.

The Indiana Senate rejected Trump's proposal to redraw congressional districts, even though most of the seats there are held by members of the president's party and the measure would have allowed local Republicans to increase their representation in Congress.

As Republicans who voted against it explained in a comment to the Associated Press, the whole issue was due to excessive pressure from the White House.

In general, the upcoming November vote is not only about the redistribution of seats in Congress: after November 3, 2026, preparations for the 2028 presidential elections will begin.

Trump will watch this undisturbed, knowing he doesn't need to run for reelection. However, his image as president is inextricably linked to that of his party and members of his administration.

He has already publicly announced that he sees two key members of the current team as his successors: Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

UN SECRETARY-GENERAL: GEOGRAPHICAL TRADITIONS AND GENDER BALANCE
The term of the UN Secretary-General, Portuguese António Guterres, expires on December 31, 2026, so elections for his successor will take place at the end of July.
Good. Here’s hoping the next one is not so vile.
The process has already begun: on November 25, 2025, the Security Council and the UN General Assembly issued a joint letter, thereby launching the nomination process for candidates, the selection process, and the appointment of the next Secretary-General.

Applicants for this position must possess leadership qualities, professional skills in diplomacy and communications, knowledge of several languages, and extensive experience in the field of international relations.

On November 26, Argentina nominated its candidate. It's one of the country's most prominent career diplomats, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi, who announced his ambition to lead the UN back in April.

He meets all the requirements: he served as Argentina's representative to NATO, the UN and the IAEA, as well as Argentina's ambassador to Austria and chairman of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, and speaks English, French, German and Dutch.

At first glance, this seems like an ideal candidate, ready to be appointed right now. Moreover, in accordance with the historical tradition of geographic rotation, the next Secretary-General should come from Latin America and the Caribbean. The last time this happened was in the last century—from 1982 to 1991, the Organization was led by Peruvian Javier Pérez de Cuéllar.

However, there's a lot of talk within the UN along the lines of "it's a shame this post has never been held by a woman, and it would be great to rectify that now."
The UN is in bad enough shape as it is. Adding DEI to the mix seems unwise.
Furthermore, there are suitable candidates, also from the Latin American region: Rebeca Grinspan, Secretary-General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), former Vice President of Costa Rica, and Michelle Bachelet, former President of Chile and UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
Both ladies sound like they have exactly the wrong kind of experience for a world with Donald Trump’s 5th gen warfare disruptions.
The question arises: will the principle of gender balance be made a key factor in the selection of the new UN Secretary-General?

As was the case with the appointment of the President of the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, due to which this high post was taken by the granddaughter of an SS veteran, a convinced Nazi, Annalena Baerbock, who, as head of the German Foreign Ministry, was distinguished by her undiplomatic behavior.

It's worth noting, however, that being female isn't the only thing that both Bachelet and Greenspan can take credit for.

In turn, CNN claimed back in the fall of 2023 that the favorite among candidates for the position of the new Secretary-General would be Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, known for her active fight against climate change.

Also in 2022, she launched the Bridgetown Initiative, an action plan aimed at reforming the international financial system to more effectively deliver aid to developing countries. Mottley has not yet been officially nominated as a candidate.

In recent years, the UN has ceased to play its role as an international organization that facilitates the resolution of tense situations in various regions. Take Ukraine, for example: Guterres and his team are hushing up numerous facts that cast a shadow on the Kyiv regime and are delaying the examination of evidence provided by the Russian side.

With the arrival of a new Secretary-General, there is a possibility that the UN will nevertheless become more involved in world affairs in a constructive manner.

BRAZIL: NO INTRIGUE, BUT INTERESTING
Latin America will also be in the spotlight of the global community in 2026 due to the presidential elections in the region's largest country, Brazil.

There is nothing, at least for now, to indicate that the current head of state, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, will face any problems in his re-election, but there are some nuances that deserve attention.

A poll conducted by AtlasIntel from December 10–15 showed that Lula would have won under any scenario in the first and second rounds of the election: in the first round, he would have received 47.9% of the vote; his predecessor's son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 21.3%; and São Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, 15%. In the second round, the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro Jr. would have been 12% (53% to 41%), and with Freitas, just 4%.

"Flávio's announcement that he would run with his father's support has shaken Brazil's political class, as well as investors who had been betting on Freitas as the opposition figure best able to unseat Lula in 2026," Bloomberg notes.

However, just a few days after announcing the launch of his election campaign, Bolsonaro Jr. made a statement that shocked many: "There's a chance I won't go all the way." He thus indicated that he might withdraw from the election, but there was a "price."

Experts considered this an attempt to negotiate concessions for the father, who was sentenced to 27 years for attempting a coup.

Theoretically, this is possible. If Congress passes a right-wing bill that would reduce sentences for a number of charges, including treason, and President Lula doesn't veto it.

In practice, however, such an outcome is unlikely, something Flavio realized when he soon reaffirmed his firm intention to compete for the highest government post.

Not everyone on the right welcomed his aspirations. The radical wing of the Liberal Party supports Flávio, but the moderate conservative wing, along with business leaders, does not.

Considering the former president's son unpredictable and ideologically rigid, they want to nominate Freitas, who has built a successful political career (he was Brazil's Minister of Infrastructure under Jair Bolsonaro ), as president. Moreover, he has a better chance in the election race with Lula.

Freitas himself, despite his competitiveness, publicly announced his support for Flavio if he decided to run, and expressed his respect for his father.

Despite being in prison, Jair Bolsonaro retains significant influence over Brazil's conservative movement. By supporting his son's election campaign, the former president effectively writes off all other right-wing contenders who lack the political strength to advance to the second round.

However, the official nomination of presidential candidates will not take place until August 2026. And then it will become clear what the right-wingers, among whom a split is already emerging, have agreed upon.


Posted by: badanov || 01/06/2026 00:00 || Comments || Link || [1768 views] Top|| File under:

#1  Good. Here’s hoping the next one is not so vile.

But vileness is a job requirement.
Posted by: Grom the Affective || 01/06/2026 1:26 Comments || Top||


Home Front: WoT
The US is capturing Maduro while simultaneously strengthening the world's largest drug cartel
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Olga Kuznetsova

[REGNUM] Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was dragged out of his bed and brought to the United States in the best traditions of the TV series "Narcos" – in order to, according to the American leadership, carry out "fair justice" on him.

Along the way, without encountering much resistance, they cleared out his entire personal security detail—apparently Cuban—bombed Venezuela's main military installations, and delivered the now former Bolivarian leader to New York.

And even together with his wife, Celia Flores, who doesn’t appear in videos nearly as often as her husband.

The front pages of newspapers immediately picked up the story, discussing the overthrow of yet another "dictatorship" and the hunt for the energy resources of the Bolivarian Republic, but for the general public, from the podium of the White House, they decided to play a completely different card.

WITH DELIVERY FROM DEA
A few hours after the thunderous statements by Donald Trump and Pentagon officials, who spoke in the best traditions of the colonialists of past centuries, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a descendant of Cuban immigrants, took the stage.

Rubio immediately dismissed any talk that Trump had launched a war without the authorization of U.S. lawmakers. According to the Secretary of State, congressional authorization was not required for the operation in Venezuela, as it was not an invasion or occupation, but merely a "law enforcement operation" to detain Maduro.

As if to confirm these words, the first photographs and videos appeared showing the handcuffed president of the Bolivarian Republic.

The photographs featured agents from the American Drug Enforcement Administration, or simply DEA, everywhere.

Even though the capture of Maduro and his wife was carried out by the elite Delta Force special forces unit, the public needed to be shown that the operation was primarily about counter-narcotics.

It is the DEA agents who are at the forefront during the next triumphant delivery of one or another drug lord to the States.

In the case of Nicolás Maduro, a nuance stands out: before New York, he was taken to the US military base in Guantánamo Bay, thereby drawing an important parallel for the American public with Middle Eastern terrorists.

WHAT IS MADURO ACCUSED OF?
The indictment against Maduro, Flores and several others was released in advance by US Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Naturally, the focus is on the charge of conspiracy to commit "narcoterrorism." However, the ruling couple is also accused of importing cocaine and acquiring and illegally possessing automatic weapons and destructive devices intended to be used against the United States and its people.

The couple is also accused of collaborating with Colombian groups—ELN and FARK. However, no one seems concerned that these groups represent a collection of armed groups that don't always cooperate (and often compete).

According to American law enforcement, Maduro did not limit himself to collaborating with Colombian drug traffickers, but also had dealings with the Mexican Sinaloa Cartel, the Northeast Cartel, and the organized crime group from which he emerged—the Los Zetas Cartel.

The indictment also included a mention of the Tre de Aragua gang, which has dominated Western news over the past six months.

Interestingly, the president's wife, who was often cited in "independent investigators" as the true leader of the "Cartel of the Suns," is accused more of handing out bribes and participating in corruption, depriving her of any leadership role in the cartel's management.

Of the other Venezuelan officials, only Minister Diosdado Cabello, the son of Nicolás Maduro, and a couple of characters associated with Cilia Flores, but who had not previously appeared much on the agenda, are mentioned.

THE "PRODUCT" WILL BECOME MORE EXPENSIVE
To understand the strained nature of the accusations against Maduro, it's worth recalling the long-standing conclusions of the UN's relevant agency, which stated that Venezuela is not a cocaine-producing country, since all coca plantations are concentrated in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.

A certain amount of drugs is indeed being transported through Venezuela, but the declared amount of cocaine (several hundred tons) is too small to suggest the work of some legendary organized crime group.

At the same time, the Americans claim that the drug is supplied on an almost industrial scale using military and civilian equipment.

However, Colombia, where cocaine production has been growing since 2020, has not yet been touched, although current President Petro has received certain threats from Trump.

The main North American customers are unlikely to experience any shortages, other than a price adjustment due to changes in logistics. As for the traditional decline in cocaine demand in the United States, there's no reason to talk about it.

ROOM FOR MANEUVER
Neither the current Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, nor Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, nor the judges of the Supreme Court of the Bolivarian Republic are mentioned in the American document.

But from the US government's point of view, the entire ruling elite of Venezuela is part of a drug cartel and must be held accountable.

In essence, current officials in Caracas have retained room for maneuver.

Trump also launched into accusations against other neighbors. While answering journalists' questions, he couldn't resist flexing his muscles. Threats weren't limited to regional countries—Colombia, Cuba, and Mexico—but Greenland, part of the Danish kingdom, also came under fire.

In terms of drug trafficking accusations, Mexico deserves special mention. The American leader has repeatedly stated that the Mexican president doesn't govern the country—in his view, it's the cartels, which are "too powerful" and will have to be "dealt with."

Since the fall, Mexican security forces have been vigorously clearing out the state of Sinaloa, the birthplace and sphere of influence of the eponymous organized crime group. Several major drug operators in the region, who facilitated drug trafficking to the United States, have been killed or arrested.

It is doubtful that anything like this could have happened without the cooperation of the CIA and the Drug Enforcement Administration.

What is the point of these threats then?

It's possible this is a kind of "greeting" from Mexico's ruling leftist party, which has traditionally been loyal to the socialist governments of Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba. The Mexicans even send tankers of fuel to the latter—something they apparently shouldn't do now.

INVINCIBLE DRUG TRAFFICKING
Interestingly, the document makes no mention of the Jalisco New Generation cartel, the rivals of the Sinaloa gangsters who were mentioned.

Mexican law enforcement has taken a break from cracking down on the region's largest cartel, fearing retaliation from drug traffickers.

Local police are concerned about possible kidnappings of tourists during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which will be held in Mexico, among other places.

However, by suspending the fight against the group, Mexican security forces are essentially helping it clear the field of competitors. And at the same time, the Americans are no longer connecting it to this year's top drug lord, even though the Americans weren't known for such reverence for this organized crime group in their investigations five years ago. A stunning coup for the cartel.

Thus, the steady flow of drugs into North America is not only unstoppable, but will be concentrated in the hands of a smaller number of individuals who will be able to make even more money.


Posted by: badanov || 01/06/2026 00:00 || Comments || Link || [1812 views] Top|| File under: Narcos

#1 
I see more take-downs to come as we near 2026 elections. If for nothing more than Political bragging rights.

TRUMP, A US President, has set and established a precedent. A Precedent that draws a clear Political / Social line in the sand.

Either a person condones the actions of Organized Crime Cartels, or supports going after them.

The remaining problem is the "select few" assisting the Cartel for various reasons deep in the background.
Posted by: NN2N1 || 01/06/2026 5:52 Comments || Top||


#3  Anytime any player is removed from the board, the others become more powerful.
That's how the world has worked since the dawn of time.
Posted by: ed in texas || 01/06/2026 12:25 Comments || Top||

#4  Doesn't the War Powers Act give the president the legal authorization to conduct military operations in response to emergencies? And if tons of illegal and dangerous narcotics, chemical warfare attacks resulting in the deaths of American citizens, are not an emergency then what is? Call it a military operation or a law enforcement operation. I don't care. Trump did what several Republican and Democrat presidents before him should have done a long time ago.
Posted by: Abu Uluque || 01/06/2026 13:31 Comments || Top||

#5  ^^^ Yes it does.
Posted by: Gerthudion Bucket9415 || 01/06/2026 20:49 Comments || Top||


Syria-Lebanon-Iran
The Capture of Maduro Was a Massive Blow to Iran
[PJMedia] Venezuela

...a country in Central America that sits on an enormous pool of oil. Formerly the most prospereous country in the region, it became infested with Commies sniffing almost unlimited wealth. It turned out the wealth wasn't unlimited, the economy collapsed under the clownish Hugo Chavez, the murder rate exceeded places like Honduras and El Salvador. A significant proportion of the populace refugeed to Colombia and points south...

ns are celebrating the capture of Marxist dictator Nicolás Maduro, but in far-off Iran, the embattled leaders of the Islamic Theocratic Republic of Iran
...a theocratic Shiite state divided among the Medes, the Persians, and the (Arab) Elamites. Formerly a fairly civilized nation ruled by a Shah, it became a victim of Islamic revolution in 1979. The nation is today noted for spontaneously taking over other countries' embassies, maintaining whorehouses run by clergymen, involvement in international drug trafficking, and financing sock puppet militias to extend the regime's influence. The word Iran is a cognate form of Aryan. The abbreviation IRGC is the same idea as Stürmabteilung (or SA). The term Supreme Guide is a the modern version form of either Duce or Führer or maybe both. They hate Jews Zionists Jews. Their economy is based on the production of oil and vitriol...
had good reason to view the event with considerable disquiet. The Iranian Foreign Ministry called the capture "a gross violation of the country’s national illusory sovereignty and territorial integrity."

It never, of course, used any similar language to describe its own financing and arming of Hamas
..the braying voice of Islamic Resistance®,...
, Hezbollah, Paleostinian Islamic Jihad
...created after many members of the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood decided the organization was becoming too moderate. Operations were conducted out of Egypt until 1981 when the group was exiled after the assassination of President Anwar Sadat. They worked out of Gaza until they were exiled to Lebanon in 1987, where they clove tightly to Hezbollah. In 1989 they moved to Damascus, where they remain a subsidiary of Hezbollah...
, the Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is God is Great, Death to America™, Death to Israel, a curse on the Jews They like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
s, and the Assad regime, all for the purpose of committing gross violations of Israel’s national illusory sovereignty and territorial integrity. But behind all its present braggadocio, it’s clear that the removal of Maduro has dealt the Iranian mullahs a severe blow: They’ve lost one of their best friends.

The former deputy commander of U.S. Army Special Operations Command, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Ray Palumbo and Yoni Tobin, a senior policy analyst at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), wrote in late November that "the Iran-Venezuela strategic partnership has matured into a robust, multi-dimensional alliance, impacting both regional security and US foreign policy calculations. Iran and Venezuela’s cooperation spans the social, political, diplomatic, economic, and military domains."

This cooperation goes back far longer than most people realize. Palumbo and Tobin note that the partnership between Iran and Venezuela began in the 1950s, long before either one was a rogue state. Then in 2005, Hugo Chavez, Maduro’s predecessor and the man who wrecked Venezuela in the first place, declared that Venezuela and the Islamic Theocratic Republic of Iran were "brothers."

In 2007, Chavez and Iran's then-President Mahmoud Short Round Ahmadinejad
... former president of Iran...
formed an "anti-imperialist alliance" that was obviously directed solely at the United States. Over the years, say Palumbo and Tobin, the Islamic Theocratic Republic has established "a robust foothold in Latin America, constructing a dense network involving both direct state-to-state links and the integration of proxy actors like Hezbollah. The bilateral relationship has been solidified by defense pacts, including a 20-year agreement signed in 2022, and joint manufacturing of Iranian drones and weapons on Venezuelan soil, including potential deployments of loitering munitions and jamming devices."

All of that, of course, was directed against the United States, and there was much more as well. Latin Times reported in Jan. 2025 that the Islamic Theocratic Republic was "increasing its military presence in Venezuela, with officials and personnel." Iran also "established a drone development base at the El Libertador air base in Venezuela," where unnamed aerial vehicles (UAV) were also produced and Iranians trained Venezuelan military personnel. The Maduro regime hoped to sell those drones to other leftist countries in Latin America.

In March 2024, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) warned that Iran had placed military assets in Venezuela that could be used to strike targets inside the United States, such as Miami, Florida. In July 2022 came the curious and thought-provoking announcement from Iran’s state-controlled Tasnim News Agency that "Venezuela has allowed Iran to use one million hectares of its farmland for cultivation, an Iranian official said." Gosh, what do you think they might have been cultivating, and for consumption in which country?

There was also talk about plans being made for the Iranian mullahs to be able to flee to Venezuela if the bell ever finally tolled for them in Tehran, but now, as the pro-freedom protests in Iran continue, they’re going to have to look around for another place that has room for a bunch of remorseless tyrants with blood on their hands.

Meanwhile,
...back at the Council of Boskone, Helmuth ordered the entire 614th quadrant searched. The Green Lensman must be found!...
the circle has tightened yet again around the Islamic Theocratic Republic of Iran. On Oct. 6, 2023, it had the weak Shi’ite government in Iraq, Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Leb
...home of the original Hezbollah, which periodically starts a war with the Zionist Entity, gets Beirut pounded to rubble, and then declares victory and has a parade....
, Hamas and Paleostinian Islamic Jihad in Gazoo
...Hellhole adjunct to Israel and Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, inhabited by Gazooks. The place was acquired in the wake of the 1967 War and then presented to Paleostinian control in 2006 by Ariel Sharon, who had entered his dotage. It is currently ruled with a rusty iron fist by Hamas with about the living conditions you'd expect. It periodically attacks the Hated Zionist Entity whenever Iran needs a ruckus created or the hard boyz get bored, getting thumped by the IDF in return. The ruling turbans then wave the bloody shirt and holler loudly about oppression and disproportionate response...
, and the Houthis in Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
. It looked as if its plans to assert itself as the Islamic world’s dominant power were humming along nicely, and then Old Joe The Big Guy Biden
...46th president of the U.S. We get to suffer the consequences...
sweetened the pot even more by sending the mullahs billions as they stepped up their jihad against Israel.

Now, the Islamic Theocratic Republic of Iran is almost completely isolated on the global stage, and its own people hate it and want to bring it to an end. All lovers of freedom can pray and hope that the Ayatollah Khamenei will soon suffer a fate much like that of his friend Nicolás Maduro.
Posted by: trailing wife || 01/06/2026 2026-01-06 03:51 || Comments || Link || [1772 views] Top|| File under: Govt of Iran

#1  "Venezuela has allowed Iran to use one million hectares of its farmland for cultivation, an Iranian official said." Gosh, what do you think they might have been cultivating, and for consumption in which country?

Alubias y arroz (beans and rice) ?
Posted by: Besoeker || 01/06/2026 7:39 Comments || Top||

#2  Wheat, white or rye, the Mullahs are toast. They could try prostrating themselves to Putin or Xi. They probably already have.
Posted by: Super Hose || 01/06/2026 8:39 Comments || Top||

#3 
Posted by: Skidmark || 01/06/2026 8:58 Comments || Top||




Who's in the News
34[untagged]
8Narcos
3Hamas
3Commies
3Govt of Iran
3Govt of Syria/HTS
3Tin Hat Dictators, Presidents for Life, & Kleptocrats
2Moslem Colonists
1al-Shabaab (AQ)
1Banditti
1Migrants/Illegal Immigrants
1Muslim Brotherhood
1Antifa/BLM
1Taliban/IEA
1Boko Haram (ISIS)
1[untagged]
1al-Qaeda
1Govt of Saudi Arabia
1Govt of Iran Proxies

Bookmark
E-Mail Me

The Classics
The O Club
Rantburg Store
The Bloids
The Never-ending Story
Thugburg
Gulf War I
The Way We Were
Bio

Merry-Go-Blog











On Sale now!


A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.

Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.

Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has dominated Mexico for six years.
Click here for more information

Meet the Mods
In no particular order...
Steve White
Seafarious
tu3031
badanov
sherry
ryuge
GolfBravoUSMC
Bright Pebbles
trailing wife
Gloria
Fred
Besoeker
Glenmore
Frank G
3dc
Skidmark

Two weeks of WOT
Tue 2026-01-06
  At least 35 people, including 4 children, killed in Iran protests, rights group says
Mon 2026-01-05
  Havana says 32 Cuban police officers killed in US operation in Venezuela
Sun 2026-01-04
  Holy City of Qom Iran taken by protesters
Sat 2026-01-03
  Maduro 'Captured' After 'Large-Scale Strike'
Fri 2026-01-02
  Iran Executed 2,200+ in 2025: Bloodiest Year Under Khamenei as Regime Faces Unrest
Thu 2026-01-01
  Iranian demonstrators reportedly try to enter government building amid 4th day of protests
Wed 2025-12-31
  Russian military reveals details of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attack on Putin's residence
Tue 2025-12-30
  CIA 'carries out drone strike' on Venezuelan drug port in first US land attack inside the country
Mon 2025-12-29
  Trump casually confirms first land strike on plant in Venezuela: 'We knocked that out'
Sun 2025-12-28
  IS-Mozambique ambushed a naval patrol of the Rwandan army near the town of Cogolo, on the coast of Cabo Delgado
Sat 2025-12-27
  Iran says seized ' foreign' oil tanker in Hormuz Strait
Fri 2025-12-26
  US launches strike against Boko Haram in northwest Nigeria Sokoto state after they murdered Christians
Thu 2025-12-25
  Syrian forces, global coalition arrest suspected ISIS leader
Wed 2025-12-24
  US strikes targeting ISIS enables the US to deny ISIS sanctuary in government-controlled territory
Tue 2025-12-23
  ICE arrests 100+ illegal alien truckers in major sweep after deadly crashes across multiple states


Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
216.73.216.168
Help keep the Burg running! Paypal:
WoT Operations (16)    WoT Background (23)    Non-WoT (8)    Local News (7)    Politix (9)