Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Korrespondent] After the flattery game during Putin's phone call with Trump, peace in Ukraine remains far from on the horizon.
The full-scale war in Ukraine has been going on for 1,331 days, approaching the rank of the longest in modern history, close to the First World War (1,567 days), and surpassing the Korean War (1,129 days).
So far, Ukraine has experienced several phases: the first days of the invasion, when it seemed that Russia would quickly occupy the country; the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which ended this Russian goal and routed Russian forces near Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson; the unsuccessful Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023; the capture of Bakhmut in 2023 and Avdiivka in 2024; the beginning of the "drone" war on the front in 2025.
Now, when it seemed Ukraine might receive Tomahawks, and there was a hint of at least a halt to the fighting on the front lines, the Russian dictator called the US president again. And Putin's attempts to reassure him appear to have been successful.
Although the Spanish publication El Mundo predicts five possible scenarios for the war in Ukraine, with the hope of a deterioration in US-Russian relations.
AN UNRELIABLE WORLD
Trump is increasing pressure on Russia, including by imposing secondary sanctions, pressuring buyers of Russian oil, and supplying long-range missiles to Ukraine. As a result, he is imposing a fragile peace.
"But the practical likelihood that he will be able to 'force' Putin to agree to a lasting peace is low in the short term, since for the Putin regime (not Russia), the war in Ukraine is 'existential', and it will continue to fight at any cost," the publication believes.
WAR ENGULFS EASTERN EUROPE
While Russian provocations have so far been limited to airspace violations by fighter jets or drones, as well as "grey zone" operations such as sabotage and hacking attacks, it is clear that Moscow is escalating its hybrid war against Europe.
Several European intelligence agencies have warned (the German one was the most recent) that Russia is preparing a provocation against a NATO country.
Spanish journalists believe that any provocation could backfire and have serious consequences for the continent's security. Analysts point to the Baltic states as potential targets for Moscow.
THE WAR CONTINUES IN 2026
The Russian invasion will continue next year despite efforts to stop it. This is one of the most likely scenarios, according to El Mundo.
"After all, neither the Ukrainians are going to surrender (something Moscow is beginning to understand almost four years later), nor can Putin afford to avoid war without something that could be called a victory," the article says.
DIRECT NEGOTIATIONS
For the first time since the invasion, the Kremlin has expressed genuine concern about the rapid deterioration of Russia's military economy in recent months and its negative forecasts for 2026.
According to Reuters, Russia's export revenues from oil and refined products are experiencing a steady decline: crude oil and fuel revenues declined in September 2025, despite export volumes reaching recent highs. This reflects the damage to Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone attacks.
And the Moscow Times reported that "Russia faces economic stagnation with growing pressure on public finances, limiting its ability to sustain the war at its current intensity beyond 2026."
As a result, the Russian economy may deteriorate, forcing Putin to sit down at the negotiating table.
THE CAPITULATION OF UKRAINE
The final scenario predicted by the Spanish publication is the exhaustion of allied support, which would force Ukraine to succumb to Russia's maximalist demands.
This is especially true if the Alternative for Germany party or similar forces in other EU countries come to power.
"With the Trump administration now removed, European support is vital for the survival of the Ukrainian state and its army," the media outlet writes.
But this scenario is unlikely due to the position of Eastern European EU countries, which understand that Russia is a real threat to them, journalists add.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[NewsFront] 20:17 Russian troops strengthen their onslaught, advancing in the Konstantinovsky direction. Earlier, our units liberated Stupochki, digging in there. 19:26 Judging by the geolocation, the Russian army has control over part of the residential sector of the center of Krasnoarmeysk (Pokrovsk) –MAP
19:00 FPV drone crews of the Northern Forces Group destroyed temporary deployment points of Ukrainian Armed Forces UAV crews –VIDEO
Crimean paratroopers' UAV units in the Sumy direction are paralyzing logistics and disrupting Ukrainian Armed Forces attacks.
Combat work of strike UAV crews of the "Center" group of forces to destroy armored vehicles and pickups with manpower of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
FPV drone operators from the Vostok group of forces destroyed enemy mortar crews and vehicles in the Zaporizhzhia region.
FPV drone operators from the Dnipro group of forces destroyed UAV control centers and the Ukrainian Armed Forces' communications system.
Fighters from the "East" group of forces disrupted the transfer of enemy personnel near the village of Uspenovka in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Novorossiysk paratroopers' UAV operators destroyed enemy drone crews in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
Drone operators from the Southern Group of Forces burned two Ukrainian Armed Forces pickup trucks near the village of Konstantinovka.
18:08 As a result of the fighting for the village of Privolye, servicemen of the Vostok group of forces advanced four kilometers into the depth of the enemy's defense.
17:49 From 14:00 Moscow time to 17:00 Moscow time by air defense systems on duty destroyed four Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type:
Two over the territory of the Belgorod region and
One each over the territories of the Bryansk and Kursk regions.
17:36 Update on the situation in Krasnoarmeysk. The Russian army is gradually making progress in building up the city's interior.MAP.
17:11 Konstantinovskoye direction
Units of the South Group of Forces continue fighting to clear the territory east of the Kleban-Bykskoye Reservoir/northwest of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk), where the enemy still maintains a local presence in some places (at the Matrona Moskovskaya mine, in the northern part of Shcherbinovka).
From the Nelepovka area, our assault units entered the southern part of Ivanopol along the Krivoy Torets River and advanced to Shevchenko Street.
In Pleshcheyevka the enemy holds its positions.
17:03 In the South Donetsk direction, drone operator "Chek" and motorcyclist "Sokol"supportattack aircraft of the Vostok group.
16:01 Iskander OTRK crew inflicted an attack on a site where a long-range UAV was being prepared for launch and on Ukrainian Armed Forces trucks in the area of the village of Martovoye.
15:24 Combat operations to liberate the village of Peschanoye in the Khar'kov region were carried out with the support of artillery, heavy flamethrower systems and unmanned attack aerial vehicles, -VIDEO
15:08 From 11:00 Moscow time to 14:00 Moscow time by air defense systems on duty destroyed four Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the aircraft type:
Two UAVs each – over the territories of the Belgorod and Kursk regions.
14:04 Servicemen of the 14th Army Corps of the Dnepr group of forces conducted combat coordination in the Kherson region.
13:17 Seversk direction. Russian Armed Forces have taken up new positions between Pereyezdny and Vyemka south of Seversk. The pocket is gradually closing. MAP
12:27 Summary of Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the Special Military Operation from October 11 to 17, 2025:
Units of the "North" force group defeated the personnel and equipment of five mechanized brigades, a Jaeger brigade, an airborne assault brigade, two assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and two territorial defense brigades. In the Khar'kov direction, decisive actions liberated the village of Tykhoye in the Khar'kov region.
The formations of two mechanized brigades, a motorized infantry brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a territorial defense brigade, and a border detachment of the Ukrainian Border Service were defeated.
Over the past week, in the area of responsibility of the "North" group of forces, the enemy lost more than 1,315 troops, three tanks, 12 armored combat vehicles, 80 vehicles, and nine field artillery pieces. Six electronic warfare stations and 38 ammunition and supply depots were destroyed.
Units of the "West" force group, following decisive action, liberated the villages of Borovska, Andreevka, and Peschanoye in the Khar'kov region. Formations of five mechanized brigades, an airmobile brigade, an airborne assault brigade, an assault brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, two territorial defense brigades, and a National Guard brigade were defeated.
The enemy lost over 1,570 troops, 21 armored combat vehicles, including seven foreign-made, 171 motor vehicles, and nine field artillery pieces. Thirty-nine ammunition depots and 61 electronic warfare and counter-battery stations were destroyed.
Over the past week, units of the Southern Group of Forces advanced deep into the enemy's defenses. They inflicted losses on the personnel and equipment of six mechanized brigades, a motorized infantry brigade, an airmobile brigade, a mountain assault brigade, a naval infantry brigade, two territorial defense brigades, and a National Guard brigade.
Over the past week, Ukrainian armed forces in this area have lost up to 1,345 service members, a tank, 24 armored combat vehicles (including six Western-made vehicles), 87 vehicles, and 17 field artillery pieces. Six electronic warfare and counter-battery stations, as well as 27 ammunition and supply depots, have been destroyed.
Units of the Center group of forces, as a result of active and decisive actions, liberated the settlements of Moskovskoe, Balagan and Novopavlovka in the Donetsk People's Republic.
Defeat was inflicted on formations of five mechanized brigades, two Jaeger brigades, an assault brigade, two airborne assault brigades, two assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, two naval infantry brigades, a territorial defense brigade, and two National Guard brigades.
The enemy lost more than 3,705 servicemen, a tank, 14 armored combat vehicles, 35 cars and 12 artillery pieces.
Over the past week, units of the "East" military group liberated the settlements of Alekseyevka and Privolye in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
The manpower and equipment of three mechanized brigades, three assault regiments of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a naval infantry brigade, a territorial defense brigade, and a national guard brigade were damaged.
The enemy's losses in this direction amounted to over 2,315 servicemen, two tanks, 17 combat armored vehicles, 103 cars, 13 field artillery pieces, and 10 electronic warfare stations.
Units of the Dnepr group of forces defeated formations of two mechanized brigades, a mountain assault brigade, a coastal defense brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and a territorial defense brigade.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces lost up to 435 service members, two armored combat vehicles, 50 vehicles, and five artillery pieces. Twenty-six electronic warfare stations and 13 ammunition and supply depots were destroyed.
11:53 Advance of the Russian Armed Forces in the Gulyai-Polye direction, –MAP.
11:26 Advance of the Russian Armed Forces and liberation of the village of Privolye, –MAP.
11:07 Advance of the Russian Armed Forces near Fili, –MAP.
10:25 Konstantinovka. Russian troops have occupied the first buildings in the Santurinovka neighborhood on the eastern outskirts of the city.MAP.
10:17 Military signalers of the Center group of forcesprovidestable communication channels in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
10:09 Advance of the Russian Armed Forces near Dimitrov, –MAP.
07:31 During the past night, from 23:00 on October 16 to 7:00 on October 17, air defense systems on duty intercepted and destroyed 61 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles of the fixed-wing type:
32 UAVs over the territory of the Republic of Crimea,
13 UAVs over the territory of the Rostov region,
Six UAVs over the Black Sea,
Five UAVs over the territory of the Bryansk region,
Two UAVs each over the territories of the Tula region and the Moscow region, One over the territory of the Kursk region.
07:31 Changes on map over the past 24 hours:
Advance east of the village of Filiya
Expansion of the control zone west of Stepnogorsk
Advance west of Predtechino
Expansion of the control zone in Kupyansk
05:01 Crew of the 152mm 2S19 Msta-S self-propelled howitzer of the Center group of forces destroyed a Ukrainian Armed Forces UAV control point in the Dnipropetrovsk region, and a Tornado-G MLRS crew covered the enemy with fire in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Gevorg Mirzayan
[REGNUM] On October 16, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone with his American counterpart Donald Trump.
"The conversation was lengthy, lasting nearly two and a half hours. It was clearly very substantive, yet at the same time extremely frank and confidential," commented Vladimir Putin's foreign policy adviser, Yuri Ushakov.
They discussed a variety of topics, but, of course, Ukraine was foremost. The main outcome of the talks was an agreement to hold a new meeting between the two leaders. It appears it will take place before the end of October.
The conversation itself demonstrated several points.
First, the Russian leader's composure. For two months since the Alaska meeting, Donald Trump has been trying to pressure Vladimir Putin, attempting to revise the agreements reached and improve his own negotiating position.
Not because Trump is bad, but because he couldn't do his homework—that is, force Europe to accept the terms he agreed upon with his Russian counterpart. Therefore, Trump constantly vacillated, from polite comments to threats, even offensive ones.
"All of Trump's statements in recent weeks about his disappointment in Putin, as well as his remarks about Tomahawks, were not a reflection of the United States' intention to sever relations with Russia, but merely tools for political and diplomatic pressure on Moscow, " Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explained to Regnum news agency.
However, throughout these two months, an icy calm emanated from Moscow. Russia did not succumb to Trump's emotional ploys, nor did it issue counter-threats (for example, to the idea of supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine). Moscow waited for action, paying no attention to words—and this once again proves that Vladimir Putin knows how to conduct constructive negotiations even with such a difficult partner as the American president.
He can make any dialogue with him constructive and positive - but at the same time not give in to his blackmail and not make concessions in exchange for a temporary removal of threats.
Despite the extremely complex emotional backdrop of the negotiating process (discussions over Tomahawk missiles, worsening military hysteria in Europe, and the Senate's constant public urge to pass a new package of anti-Russian sanctions), the Russian leader placed his bets not on exacerbating the contradictions or on attempts to force Trump to answer for these words, but on strengthening the so-called "Anchorage spirit." That is, a willingness to continue direct, rather than overt, diplomatic engagement with the United States.
But, again, not at the expense of Russian interests, which Vladimir Putin steadfastly defended in Anchorage and will do just as well at the new summit with Trump. Especially since, if we examine these interests, none of them are 100 percent at odds with American interests (at least as Trump understands them).
Russia needs not a temporary, unguaranteed peace, but long-term security, which would minimize the risk of the United States being drawn into a major war. Russia holds the strategic initiative, while the Kyiv regime resorts to terrorist methods, to which Russia is forced to respond—and again, the United States has no interest in being complicit in this terrorism.
Moscow has likely also placed Tomahawks in the national interest. Yes, the Americans can supply them, but Tomahawks won't change the situation on the battlefield. Instead, they will ruin any chances of warming Russian-American relations, which Washington so desperately needs to avoid being distracted by Eastern European affairs in its East Asian policy.
And also to develop economic cooperation with Moscow, the prospects of which Putin and Trump also discussed.
And finally, to avoid turning Biden's war, as the American leader calls the Ukrainian conflict, into "Trump's war," which is what would happen if Tomahawks were supplied and the United States were drawn into the conflict.
Apparently, Trump listened to Putin. "The negotiations showed that the Trump administration remains interested in maintaining constructive dialogue with Russia, remains interested in resolving the Ukrainian conflict through dialogue with Russia, and remains uninterested in privatizing the Ukrainian war," explains Dmitry Suslov.
Otherwise, the parties would not have agreed on a new summit, which can only take place if a package of agreed or nearly agreed documents is on the table at the time of its holding.
The venue of the event is a separate issue. Trump has already stated that the meeting will take place in the Hungarian capital, Budapest. The Russian side, however, was less categorical.
"It was agreed that representatives of the two countries will immediately begin preparing for a summit, which could be held, for example, in Budapest," Yuri Ushakov said in a statement.
Moscow's caution is understandable. Yes, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, with whom Vladimir Putin already spoke by phone today, is one of the most pragmatic European leaders. He advocates for de-escalation in Russian-Western relations and is fully worthy of the reward of hosting such an important summit.
Politically, the summit in Hungary will also be a powerful blow to the European Union, which will be forced not only to lift some personal sanctions but also to watch from the sidelines as Russia and the United States discuss the fate of Europe without Europe in a European country. Or, at best, Viktor Orbán will represent Europe there—someone who is a stranger to current European leaders. And for Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he's practically an enemy.
However, despite all this, security issues must be clearly discussed (and not just with Orbán) – both at the summit itself and in everything related to the Russian leader's arrival route. An arrival that Europe will try to disrupt.
However, European leaders are not to be envied even if the summit ultimately takes place outside the EU. "The negotiations showed that the US has not completely sided with the European war party," says Dmitry Suslov.
One can't envy Zelensky, who flew to the summit with Trump fully confident that it would take place against the backdrop of worsening Russian-American relations and would lead to some kind of increased support for Kyiv from Washington.
"Trump's phone call with Putin fundamentally changes the nature and agenda of Trump's negotiations with Zelenskyy. Essentially, the American president will be communicating to Zelenskyy what he should do in accordance with the agreements likely reached following his conversation with the Russian leader," Dmitry Suslov continues.
Yes, in theory, Trump's meeting with Zelenskyy could yield all sorts of surprises, but the situation itself once again demonstrates the complete lack of agency on the part of him and his European accomplices. By speaking with Putin, Trump simply presented Kyiv with a fait accompli. It's one it's better off accepting and accepting.
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Regnum] Russian Deputy Defense Minister Colonel General Alexander Fomin will leave his post. Izvestia reported this on October 16, citing an informed source.
At the Russian Ministry of Defense, Fomin oversees international and military-technical cooperation. He oversees the Main Directorate for International Military Cooperation and the Treaty Compliance Monitoring Directorate (the National Nuclear Risk Reduction Center).
Colonel General Fomin is 66 years old. In the 1990s, he held key positions at Rosvooruzheniye, and since the early 2000s, he has worked at Rosoboronexport. In 2004, he became Deputy Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC), and from 2012 to 2017, he headed this service. In January 2017, Fomin was appointed Deputy Minister of Defense.
In 2022 and 2025, Fomin was part of the negotiating team with representatives of Ukraine. In addition to him, the Russian side was represented by the head of the delegation and presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin, and the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Igor Kostyukov.
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] 1. Hungary confirmed that it is preparing for talks between Putin and Trump in Budapest. Today, the Hungarian Foreign Minister spoke by phone with Ushakov, where preparations for such a meeting were discussed. Orbán stated yesterday that the Hungarians would organize everything. For Orbán, such a meeting would be a huge personal victory, which he would then use to rub it in the faces of his European counterparts. It would also strengthen his domestic political position ahead of the 2026 elections.
2. For our part, Ushakov responded more vaguely yesterday, hinting that a meeting would definitely take place, but it might not be in Budapest. Apparently, the issue is still being worked on. Unlike Trump, comments from the Kremlin and the Russian Foreign Ministry regarding the talks have traditionally been more reserved.
3. The main issue is security, since no matter which route to Hungary you take, you will inevitably have to fly over a NATO country. If you go through Belarus, that means through Poland and Slovakia. If via Turkey, then either further through Greece and the Balkans, or bypassing Greece via the Balkans.
4. It can be assumed that if flying via Poland, Putin could stop in Slovakia, and if via the Balkans, then in Serbia. But either way, the security issues of such a flight are quite obvious. Meeting in the Persian Gulf monarchies, and even with "friend Recep," would be easier than in a NATO member state surrounded by other NATO countries waging a proxy war against Russia. Of course, if some outlines of a US-Russia deal were agreed upon back in Anchorage, the US could push through the necessary guarantees, but even then, the possibility of some kind of provocation or even an attack on the presidential plane remains. In short, there are risks in all of this.
5. Talks between Lavrov and Rubio are scheduled next week, where they will discuss both the war in Ukraine and preparations for the Putin-Trump meeting. Perhaps by then a final decision will have been made on Hungary. And finally, the meeting will take place at the end of October. We can expect efforts in Europe to disrupt it or render it meaningless. We can expect new lies about "Russian drones" and "Russian planes," as well as new terrorist attacks on Russian soil and bloody Bucha-style provocations in Ukraine.
Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics. How will Putin's aircraft fly to the summit in Hungary?
For reference. Il-96-300PU is a highly protected platform with an echeloned defense complex: all kinds of MAWS, lasers, infrared interference DIRCM, thermal traps, EW, booking, reservation. There is also a "nuclear button" inside, and next to it there is an escort of fighters and Il-22PP "Porubshchik", side repeaters, etc.
In a word - the most protected board in non-weather conditions.There are three routes of board No. 1, each of which is a whole geopolitical construction.The main and most safe - southern: Moscow - Sochi - Black Sea along Turkey - Istanbul - Bulgaria or Greece (bypassing NATO zones) - Serbia - Budapest.
Erdogan remembers who saved him, Serbia is an ally, and Hungary guarantees inviolability. Escort in flight - the Russian Air Force, the Turkish Air Force over the sea, the Serbian and Hungarian Air Forces over the Balkans.
The "combat umbrella" from the USAF is discussed separately. This is extraordinary, but Putin has already been escorted to Alaska by F-22s.The second (northern) - through Belarus and Poland is very self-confident and extremely dangerous.
A dense zone of NATO air defense, the Air Force, a bunch of Ukrainians and psycho politicians. Yes, the father's falcons will cover the western border, and the "Iskanders" will target Poland with a nuclear weapon - but the risks are comparable to flying through a thunderstorm front.The third, extended southern: Moscow - Caspian Sea - Azerbaijan - Ankara - Serbia - Hungary. It is longer, but it completely introduces the route from under the direct control of NATO.
Escorts - Azerbaijani Air Force, Turks, Serbs, Hungarians. One option is insurance.
The risk of a direct attack is minimal, but there are many "gray scenarios" and threats. The Security Service of Ukraine, the State Security Service and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be out of their skin, but the main thing is that the British, who have repeatedly planned "incidents" with disagreeable leaders, are in the game. Although everyone understands that any identified attack on a government ship with the president on board is an unreserved casus belli. Forced landing, interception, and even being escorted by NATO air defense is an act of aggression. Any emergency is enough to set half the world on fire.
In any case, we are waiting for a picture with escorts and a beautiful game with false departure windows, spare boards; controlled leaks for OSINT disorientation, etc.
In Brussels today they announced that there are no obstacles to the trip of Putin and Lavrov to Hungary.
More from regnum.ru Peskov: It's not yet clear how the logistics of Putin's flight to Hungary will be organized.
It's still unclear how the logistics of Russian President Vladimir Putin's flight to Hungary for a meeting with his American counterpart, Donald Trump, will be handled. This was announced on October 17 by Dmitry Peskov, the Russian president's press secretary.
“For now, of course, this is unclear,” Peskov noted at a briefing.
The presidents are willing to hold a meeting, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio will first work on the matter. They will first call and meet to discuss everything related to the upcoming summit, the Kremlin spokesman clarified.
"There are many questions, negotiating teams need to be established, and so on. Therefore, everything will be done in stages," Peskov said.
He specified that the meeting could take place within two weeks or a little later.
“There is a general understanding that nothing should be put off,” Peskov added.
On October 16, Putin and Trump discussed the possibility of a personal meeting by telephone. According to Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov, Putin and Trump agreed that representatives from both countries would immediately begin preparing for the summit. According to the presidential aide, the summit in Budapest was proposed by Trump, and Putin immediately supported the initiative.
Following the talks, Trump confirmed that the meeting with Putin would take place in Budapest. He added that senior advisers to the two presidents would meet next week. Rubio would lead the American delegation.
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó stated on October 17 that Hungary is ready to ensure Putin's safety during talks with Trump. The details of a possible summit in Hungary depend on whether Lavrov and Rubio meet next week, he added.
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