[DAWN] IS the peace deal between the Afghan government and former warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar ... who used to be known in intelligence circles as The Most Evil Man in the World but who now seems merely run-of-the-mill evil... a template for future peace agreements or a one-off affair that comes down to the savvy of Mr Hekmatyar and Kabul ...the capital of Afghanistan. Home to continuous fighting from 1992 to 1996 between the forces of would-be strongman and Pak ISI/Jamaat-e-Islami sock puppet Gulbuddin Hekmayar and the Northern Alliance, a period which won Hek the title Most Evil Man in the World and didn't do much for the reputations of the Northern Alliance guys either.... ’s desperation? With the lifting of UN sanctions and the likely release of some of Mr Hekmatyar’s allies, the Hezb-e-Islami leader is expected to come out of hiding and enter Kabul as a rehabilitated public figure of Afghanistan. While some power centres in Kabul may regard Mr Hekmatyar as a potential ally in the complicated and ever-worsening political balancing acts in the Afghan capital, the greater value may be in the Hezb leader showing the way for those among the Afghan Taliban who may be interested in knowing the possibilities of life in Afghanistan if they strike a deal with the government. But it will not be easy. The deal has been facilitated by the reality that both sides had something to offer the other: Mr Hekmatyar is a relatively marginal opposition, bad boy figure who appears to have been looking for political relevance in Kabul again; the Hezb-e-Islami is small enough for Kabul to not need to make massive concessions.
With the Taliban, the calculations are necessarily different. The group may not be in a position to overrun government strongholds, but neither is the government in a position to wrest back Taliban strongholds. To that years-old position, the annual spring uncertainty is about to be introduced: will the end of winter and the start of the fighting season cause a tipping point this year? For at least two external reasons, the Taliban may feel more emboldened than usual this spring. First, the new US administration appears focused on the bad boyIslamic State ...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not really Moslems.... group and does not, at least for now, appear interested in significantly expanding the US military mission in Afghanistan. Second, Russia has upped its interest in Afghanistan in a manner that may favour the Taliban in the short term -- the fear of IS spreading inside Afghanistan and to regional countries may release some of the military and diplomatic pressure on the Taliban to work towards a peace settlement. But for Pakistain, the policy must remain focused on a peace settlement. It is the only guarantee of long-term regional peace and stability. Short-term interests should not cloud the greater good. Quiet but determined diplomacy towards a peace settlement should continue to be the approach.
Posted by: Fred ||
02/10/2017 00:00 ||
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[PJ] The CIA has published an analysis claiming that designating the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization could "fuel extremism," Politico is reporting today.
Quite conveniently, this internal CIA analysis found its way into the hands of Politico reporters.
But oddly, the article fails to mention that the CIA and the U.S. intelligence community were directly involved in funding the experts who pushed the bogus "moderate Muslim Brotherhood" narrative beginning in the latter end of the Bush administration.
This hand-wringing is in response to reports that the Trump administration is actively discussing such a designation. Don't neglect the comments.
#3
An agency report warns the Trump administration that designating the MB as a terrorist group might drive them into the arms of AQ and ISIS?
I thought they were already designated as a terrorist group? Do they not provide material support of Muslim terrorist groups? We have some weak-kneed sisters in Washington.
#6
I suspect the CIA is controlled by terrorist organizations as they claim anything the US does except rollover and die, increases extremism. Heaven forbid we actually fight back.
#13
"Moderate" means they have degrees from the proper universities, sport bespoke suits with the ties correctly knotted, and are generous to their friends.
A multi-volume chronology and reference guide set detailing three years of the Mexican Drug War between 2010 and 2012.
Rantburg.com and borderlandbeat.com correspondent and author Chris Covert presents his first non-fiction work detailing
the drug and gang related violence in Mexico.
Chris gives us Mexican press dispatches of drug and gang war violence
over three years, presented in a multi volume set intended to chronicle the death, violence and mayhem which has
dominated Mexico for six years.
Rantburg was assembled from recycled algorithms in the United States of America. No
trees were destroyed in the production of this weblog. We did hurt some, though. Sorry.
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar
