Long past time we shifted our attention away from Europe toward Asia. Fukuyama has some good ideas here. Excerpt: A five-power forum [comprising the US, Japan, SoKorea, China and Russia, along the lines of the OSCE] would be particularly useful in dealing with several foreseeable problems. The first is a sudden collapse of the North Korean regime. In the short run, such an implosion would cause huge difficulties: coordinating relief efforts, dealing with refugees, paying for reconstruction, and containing any violence that might ensue. Over the long run, the political deck in Northeast Asia would be reshuffled: the rationale for the U.S.-South Korean alliance would disappear, and tensions between a unified Korea and Japan and China could rise for reasons already indicated--all of which would be easier to tackle in a pre-existing multilateral setting.
Another issue is Japanese rearmament. Japan will not revise Article 9 this year or the next, but the handwriting is on the wall. Although rearmament should not threaten China and Korea, they will have many incentives to hype a new Japanese threat; China, in particular, has used anti-Japanese sentiment to bolster the communist regime's nationalist credentials. Germany, which rearmed and has been moving down a similar path toward "normalcy," moderated the threat by encasing its sovereignty in several international institutions, including NATO, the EU, and the UN. A Japanese return to normality will seem much less threatening if done within a regional security organization as well as a continuing bilateral relationship with the United States. But the new group's relevance wouldn't stop there. A fully nuclear North Korea, a possible Asian arms race, the implications of Chinese military modernization--these are just a few of the potential problems a five-power body could tackle.
#1
heh...funny how it happens. One day we are all looking east, and then we swing our heads around and start looking west.
I always believed that we would form an uneasy alliance with Russia and China. The Islamists are as much a threat to them as they are to us. And with NOKORs drooling wacko - the new alliance was inevitable.
#2
That's a good group for Korea but in general I'd rather India than Russia. Russia is too European and in decline. The Chinese are going to take their eastern lands. Let's stay out of it.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
01/08/2005 9:05 Comments ||
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#3
The islamist threat is a passing phenomenon whose importance for us (but not for Europe) will steadily diminish over the next 3-5 years. Asia's rise to global pre-eminence is here to stay, and far more important to us.
At some point in his second term Bush will have to shift focus from the middle east to China-Japan-Korea. And also figure out how to fit India into the mix.
#5
"The islamist threat is a passing phenomenon whose importance for us (but not for Europe) will steadily diminish over the next 3-5 years."
Wow. Do you really think it will pass that quickly? I'm not arguing it can't; but for me the question has been, will my grandchildren be the last to have to fight in this war against Islamic totalitarianism-- or will it be my great-grandchildren?
As I see it, this war has been going on since at least as far back as November 4, 1979; the Islamoloonies have been in a state of war with us ever since then, but we chose to ignore them until 9/11. Myself, I suspect this will be going on a lot longer than 3-5 years.
Just my opinion...
Posted by: Dave D. ||
01/08/2005 9:35 Comments ||
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#6
It will pass quickly for us. Iraq will cease to be our problem in another 18 months or so. Iran will not pass quickly but AQ and the other jihadists have already shifted their focus to Europe and SE Asia.
#7
Iran would be much easier to handle if we had a united front with India and Russia. The Euros are at best ineffectual and at worst undermining the cause of containing Iran.
#8
The big story is Asia. The anti-Iraq War conservatives are right in one sense-- and only one sense: the islamist menace is nothing compared to the Chinese threat. Which is complex and extremely difficult for this country to handle. As Fukuyama points out, the type of nation we find most difficult to handle is that which is neither completely an ally nor completely an enemy.
#1
"in fact, we've found that to avoid running into the UN, we must go out to where the quake and tsunami actually hit"
Chief Diplomad rocks.
"...I decided that, no, labeling them mafiosos or mercenaries was much too kind. They seemed more to be the progeny resulting from a mating between a mad oracle and a giant carrion-eater. They were akin to some sort of ancient mythical Greco-Roman-Aztec-Wes Craven-Egyptian-bird-god that demands constant sacrifice and feeding, and speaks in riddles which only it can solve. Yes, I decided, the UNocrats are great hideous vultures, roused from their caves in the European Alps and in the cement canyons and peaks of Manhattan by the stench of death in the Turd World. They leisurely take flight toward the smell of death; circle, and then swoop down, screeching UNintelligble nonsense. They arrive and immediately force others, e.g., the American tax payer, to build them new exclusive nests in the midst of poverty, and make themselves fat on the flesh of the dead. My friends, allow The Diplomad to present to you The High Priest Vulture Elite (HPVE)."
I am in awe.
"Who are the victims? Well, of course, the tax payers of the First World come immediately to mind. But really, after all, for us it's just money. Money comes and goes. The big victims of the HPVE are the world's poor countries who pay with the lives of their children; who get diverted by HPVE mumbo jumbo and its promises of aid and technical assistance from taking actions to develop their own countries and fend off the HPVE."
#3
I dunno 'bout this post -- love the Diplomad but seems like he's suffering battle fatigue and needs more sleep. He's much more effective in the cause when he provides fact-based inside dirt. Leave ranting to the blogosphere. We need Diplomad as an expert observer who undermines the MSM's bullshit with firsthand reporting of facts.
#4
I understand his ranting. Sometimes one has to open the valve and let some steam off. The only problem with his blog is that it lacks some good moonbats & trolls hunters.
Posted by: Mrs. Davis ||
01/08/2005 18:07 Comments ||
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#12
and less to care about - the willfully blind and ignorant will be shuffled aside with less than a courtesy "get outta my way, loser"...
Posted by: Frank G ||
01/08/2005 18:40 Comments ||
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#13
Of course the Diplomad is right. We all know how MOST suits are. Can you just imagine being with some top dog at the UN for just 24 or 48 hours. An organization like the UN with no one to answer to? Money just keeps pouring in and no matter how badly you mishandle the situation you have no worry of being held accountable.
I have this vision...tens of thousands of Americans marching on the UN demanding the pieces of shit (turds I guess) to get the hell out of our country. Now that would be news. The blogasphere would be heating up and melting. Maybe someday we will have enough even if our elected leaders believe they must continue to believe they have to fake like the UN really matters...
Everything in the world has become irrevocably politicized... and all actions have consequences - both intended and otherwise. The UN's track record sucks like an F5 - and it's finally getting the recognition it deserves in the full glare of the spotlights.
One of the things that differentiates posters is whether or not they "get it" and recognize that instant gratification isn't likely - or even possible due to realpolitik. A rant is one thing - a satisfying application of Brain Ex Lax. But actually demanding an immediate end (or beginning) to this or that because it gets one's panties in a bunch, and not recognizing it as a rant, the IWWIWWIWI* Three Yr Old's War Cry, is just idiocy. Everything is incremental - it's just the timespan and the POV of the individual that determines how it's viewed.
The UN is on its way to the bone yard, IMHO. It took one hell of a scandal to put the first good crack in the facade and break through the myth perp'ed by the usual suspects, but with the OFF Scam, they outdid themselves and made it possible. The crack is there and growing wider. Even the total assholes of the MSM are finding it difficult to ignore and know they'd better "cover it" (literally, heh) so they can put the best spin on the situation -- putting lipstick on the pig, so to speak.
But now the politics that kept this monstrosity and utterly failed 2nd-pass experiment alive have turned - and it will be politics that finally puts it out of our misery. It's a funny thing about politics (not), but once the worm turns, it's definitely downhill from there and it will accelerate.
The League of Nations failed. The UN has failed. The epitaph has already been written (No Greater Greed...), the plot and headstone ordered. Beat it like a drum and it will certainly die. Just a matter of time - and how much it can steal on the way out.
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A five-power forum [comprising the US, Japan, SoKorea, China and Russia, along the lines of the OSCE] would be particularly useful in dealing with several foreseeable problems. The first is a sudden collapse of the North Korean regime. In the short run, such an implosion would cause huge difficulties: coordinating relief efforts, dealing with refugees, paying for reconstruction, and containing any violence that might ensue. Over the long run, the political deck in Northeast Asia would be reshuffled: the rationale for the U.S.-South Korean alliance would disappear, and tensions between a unified Korea and Japan and China could rise for reasons already indicated--all of which would be easier to tackle in a pre-existing multilateral setting. 
