| Lord Garth summarizes for us. Graphs and discussion at the link. |
[DeptOfLabor] link goes to weekly unemployment insurance filings
- New Unemployment filings are at historically low rates
- The BLS measured CPI in October was up 0.4% fro September
- Yield Curve shows relatively steep increases in yield with time to maturity
this and other info make the odds high (Kalshi and Polymarket) for a Fed Funds interest rate hike at the Dec 8-9 meeting of the Federal Reserve
The recent decrease in gasoline prices hasn't changed the betting much on this. However, if these prices go down another 10 cents/gallon, I think the Fed might hold off. |