[Regnum] The artificial intelligence bubble has begun to deflate, and its final collapse is expected in the first or second quarter of 2027. This was announced by Roscongress on November 1.
"What industry experts and specialists have been warning about for so long is starting to come true. The AI ​​bubble hasn't burst yet, but it's rapidly starting to deflate," the fund's analysts noted in an interview with RIA Novosti.
In a single day, October 30, global financial markets suffered significant losses. Exchanges in the US, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, China, and Taiwan collectively lost $1.7 trillion. The cryptocurrency market shrank by $140 billion, and shares of 16 leading tech companies fell more than 20% from their year-highs, losing between 48% and 68% of their value.
Experts believe the main reason for the crisis is the inability of companies to fulfill large-scale contracts using their own funds. Chip manufacturers invest in clients, who then use these funds to purchase equipment, while cloud providers take out loans secured by rapidly aging equipment.
Russian presidential adviser Anton Kobyakov noted that rising interest rates and the need to convert assets into cash are accelerating the bubble's collapse. Historical analysis shows that when an industry outperforms the market by more than 100% over two years, the probability of a collapse exceeds 50%. AI-related stocks reached this level early this year.
Earlier, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva stated that disappointment in the profitability of large tech companies developing AI could lead to major financial shocks for the entire world. According to her, high corporate profits are currently driving stock prices, but the failure of companies' forecasts amid massive global investments in US securities could destabilize the global market.
In June, Igor Sechin, Secretary of the Presidential Commission on Strategic Development of the Fuel and Energy Sector and Environmental Safety and CEO of Rosneft, warned of the looming financial bubble of the largest in the high-tech sector. He claimed that artificial intelligence companies were siphoning off significant investment at the expense of the rest of the economy. Citing McKinsey analysts, he noted that capital expenditures on data processing could reach $8 trillion by 2030, and that four IT giants would spend approximately $700 billion on computing power this year alone.