by Ol'ga Kuznetsova
[Regnum] Following the results of the first round of the presidential elections in Brazil, the team of the current national leader Lula da Silva seemed to have suffered a defeat.
His opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, was ahead by several percentage points, having attracted the electorate of other candidates to his side and formed a lobby in Congress and the Supreme Court.
There's no need to even mention his support from Washington: the "rightward turn" in Latin America that Donald Trump favors has practically happened.
But still it was not completed.
The next round of voting began, and the results of the second round shocked observers: Lula had finally pulled ahead with 51.8% of the vote. This was virtually unprecedented in Brazilian politics, as electoral tradition over the past few decades had been quite specific: the winner of the first round ultimately ascended to the presidency.
Stock markets took this scenario into account, and on October 25, they bet on a Bolsonaro victory, which resulted in a massive decline in Brazilian stocks on the Chicago and Tokyo stock exchanges. While financial moguls are no strangers to such somersaults, the so-called conceptual blow to Brazil's right-wing establishment and its support in Washington is far more pressing.
However, Flavio Bolsonaro's team, which won 48.2% of the vote, is not ready to give up hope just yet.
REMEMBER ALL THE SINS
Following the first round, President Lula da Silva drew certain conclusions and, within 24 hours of the vote, stepped up his outreach to young people, especially students. Peaceful protests erupted, rallies against the "selling of the country into resource slavery to the US" took place at universities across the country, and social media was flooded with neuro-cartoons supporting the ruling forces.
The main goal was to get as many people as possible to the polls. It turned out that more than 33 million citizens ignored the first round, 20% of them young people.
The task was challenging, even though voting in elections is a legal obligation for Brazilians, and those who remain silent face fines and restrictions on access to certain government services.
Bolsonaro's team also understood these nuances and launched a campaign no worse than the left. The candidates tried to accuse each other of managerial mistakes and, at the same time, recall all their sins. This atmosphere characterized both the final debates and the final days of campaigning.
Bolsonaro's position actually improved in the debates—he prevented Lula from radically changing the situation in his favor. However, he did go too far, publicly mocking his opponent's missing finger.
Lula lost the little finger on his left hand at the age of 17 while working as a lathe operator. Flávio's outburst was seen as a condescending mockery of the injury, and many voters became interested in the fate of Brazil's current president for the first time. They began searching for his biography online, a move that political strategists seized upon as part of their promotional strategy.
Flavio's staff was also on the alert: Bolsonaro received a negative signal from focus groups, apologized to Lula, and avoided a downgrade.
Lula, for his part, managed to give voters a significant gift by abolishing the six-day work week. Meanwhile, no one plans to cut wages.
The initiative proved so popular that Bolsonaro also joined it, albeit with certain reservations and emphasis on the fact that such an approach could be the result of an agreement between the employee and the employer, meaning it is not mandatory.
Bolsonaro's position is understandable, as directly speaking out against such an innovation would be political suicide, given that the bill was supported by nearly 70% of the country's population.
As a result, by election day, Lula and Bolsonaro's chances were roughly 50-50. Flavio's goal was to maintain the status quo, preventing his opponent from improving his position.
AN EXTRA TWO HOURS
Both candidates continued to flirt with public symbolism until the very end. Flavio Bolsonaro, in keeping with the perennial fashion of the Latin American right, showed up to vote wearing a bulletproof vest under his shirt, while Lula, on the contrary, appeared in public without his usual hat.
Thus, the leader of the left showed that there is no trace left of the injuries and medical procedures that rained down on his head some time ago, he is healthy and capable of leading the country even at 81 years old.
These seem like trivial details. However, given the political rift that has gripped modern Brazil, any seemingly insignificant detail can mean the difference between victory and defeat.
For example, following the results of the first round and the corruption scandal surrounding the Bolsonaro clan's main enemy, Alexandre de Moraes, it was assumed that Lula's ties with the Supreme Court, which largely ensure his political immunity, had been seriously undermined.
However, as soon as problems with transport arose in the regions during the second round of voting, the situation took a completely different turn.
In some regions, due to funding shortages for public transportation, many people (including rural residents and indigenous peoples) were unable to reach polling stations and vote. Lula quickly raised the issue to the national level, and the Supreme Court approved a two-hour extension for electoral commissions.
Bolsonaro's team, incidentally, initially supported this measure. They needed real votes, too. But then problems arose.
Some polling stations received notice of extended hours after they had already finished accepting voters and sealed the ballot boxes. It soon became clear that only those polling stations that hadn't printed final voting protocols before the court's decision was published could continue operating. This placed voters in different positions.
The right, of course, tried to exploit this to their advantage, pointing out that the judge who ordered the extension, Cristian Zanin, is a former lawyer for Lula himself and chaired the panel that sentenced Jair Bolsonaro, the former president and father of the current candidate. This means there's a clear conflict of interest, which would likely lead to a third round, and the overall situation bears some resemblance to a coup d'état.
At the same time, there were cries of indignation from ordinary people who rushed to vote in the last two hours and discovered that the commission staff had left, refusing to work extra hours for free.
There is a strong reverence for "work-life balance" in Brazil, particularly among left-wing supporters, but at some polling stations, ballot boxes were left unattended, potentially leading to accusations of vote rigging.
PROMISED AND WON
Both candidates' teams spent practically the entire night after the polls closed. New polls and new counts came out, with victory shifting between Lula and Flávio. Lula, however, had initially pulled ahead, but the Bolsonaro clan showed no sign of retreating.
Even now, with the vote count complete and the incumbent president starting to receive congratulations, some regional experts are not ruling out the possibility that Flavio will still snatch victory.
It's difficult to imagine how the right-wingers plan to implement such a scenario. Bolsonaro has already stated that he will seek to annul the election results due to the extended polling station opening hours. However, most legal experts still doubt this option is feasible.
In order to declare an election invalid, there must be indisputable proof of a procedural violation that distorted the will of the voters and significantly influenced the outcome of the vote.
There have been no such precedents in Brazilian history. On the other hand, no one has ever lost in the first round of elections to become president. So, some twists of fate cannot be ruled out.
Nevertheless, Lula da Silva was able to increase the final turnout by almost 10%, and the gap between him and Flavio is several million votes, which is difficult to justify solely on the basis of two extra hours of polling station work.
Brazil's incumbent leader won, as he promised his supporters after the first round. But how will Washington, where seemingly all efforts have been thrown into supporting the Bolsonaro clan, react?
THE SPLIT PERSISTS
In the first hours after the vote, there was no significant reaction from Washington. Argentine President Javier Miley, who personally flew to São Paulo to campaign for Flávio Bolsonaro, also remained silent.
The reaction of other right-wing leaders in the region—in Chile, Peru, and Ecuador—was indicative. They congratulated Lula and refrained from making any pro-American comments.
This is partly due to the fact that Flávio Bolsonaro could well have won if not for the excessive interference of Trump and Flávio's brother, Eduardo, with their plans to build business with Brazil, but with America at the forefront. The example of "prosperous" Venezuela has already dispelled any illusions.
The "war on drug trafficking," which has already led to the extrajudicial deaths of dozens of Latin Americans, and the fight against illegal immigration, which has led to even more residents of the Western Hemisphere ending up in temporary detention centers that are little different from regular prisons, have also played a role.
Essentially, by the end of 2026, the typical Latin American resident had become quite fed up with Trump's active involvement in the political life of Latin American countries. After all, the traditional love of freedom in these latitudes has not disappeared, and constant reminders of the Monroe and Donrhoe Doctrines are already causing outrage.
| You win some, you lose some. Statistically speaking, the good guys are still far ahead. |
There are also plenty of complaints about the ruling forces' economic and security policies. Crime has increased in recent years; gangsters have even acquired drones and used them to attack military police in Rio.
Lula will also have to navigate international relations: the United States will remain Brazil's main trading partner, as will Argentina and China. Russia also wields considerable influence, supplying fertilizer to the region and having virtually no competitors, even without taking into account its BRICS partnership.
Almost all big business is behind Bolsonaro, but entrepreneurs also need contacts with markets in China and Europe, where, incidentally, Lula is viewed quite favorably, especially given his difficult relationship with Trump.
At the same time, Brazil's Congress has shifted significantly to the right following the recent elections, so this too will have to be taken into account. Experts in Brazil suggest that it's possible that Lula will simply be forced to include conservatives among his top advisers and ministers in order to maintain his current position.
Other issues also stand out: millions of citizens still haven't gone to the polls, the country remains politically divided, and 81-year-old Lula still has no successor. Therefore, the cabinet will be unstable.
However, if the right had won, the situation would have been similar, only tilted in the opposite direction. So, left and right will have to work together with the population and partner countries in any case.
As for the potential for repercussions or protests, they are highly likely to occur after the presidential inauguration, in early January 2027. By then, the true US response will already be clear, as will the strategy of Lula's new cabinet.
Meanwhile, Brazil's favelas, traditionally home to left-wing voters, are ablaze with celebratory fireworks. It's possible, however, that they might flare up again in a few months—but for a different reason.
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