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Europe
Serbian Earthquake: What will the 'students' who overthrew Vučić do?
2026-10-27
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Gevorg Mirzayan

[Regnum] "A political earthquake" is how Euronews described the results of the October 25 parliamentary elections in Serbia. They ended the nearly decade-long rule of President Aleksandar Vučić, who had been seeking to transition from the presidency to the prime minister's seat.

However, his United Serbia party won only about 100 seats in the 250-seat parliament. The opposition Student List won the election, taking about 140 seats.

The "List" emerged around the November 2024 protests, when a concrete canopy collapsed at the Novi Sad train station, burying 16 people. Youth movements blamed the government for the tragedy, claiming it was caused by corrupt officials turning a blind eye to irregularities in construction processes.

People took to the streets under anti-corruption slogans, and the president's opponents saw this as an excellent opportunity to create a new political force.

"The Student List is a new, untainted opposition that emerged after the previous one proved politically bankrupt. However, there aren't many students on this list—it's mostly made up of doctors and teachers, "Oleg Bondarenko, founder of the Balkanist.ru project, explained to Regnum.

The Serbian elections demonstrated that the winner isn't the one with the highest approval ratings, but the one who brings more supporters to the polls. "The opposition won because of public fatigue with Vučić. Essentially, he lost because of record turnout," Oleg Bondarenko continues.

Turnout was nearly 69%—an all-time high for Serbia. It was 10 percentage points higher than the 2023 elections and 15% higher than Vučić's first presidential victory in 2017.

Essentially, those who opposed Vučić came to the polls and voted for those who opposed him. It didn't matter that his opponent was a hastily formed force.

"This is a rather motley group of people dissatisfied with Vučić's long rule. Their main internal slogan is the fight against corruption and nepotism in power. And that's what brought them victory," Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Financial University, told Regnum.

But the sculptors were no longer so much internal as external forces. And when Vučić says that behind his opponents' victory are "various European countries and the US 'deep state', which is against Trump," he's right.

"The list itself was created with the participation of several Western embassies. Particularly noteworthy here are Germany, Britain, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Slovenia," continues Vadim Trukhachev. A number of MEPs attended the "student" protests in 2025 and 2026.

Europe was dissatisfied with Vučić for his attempts to combine the course of European integration with maintaining special relations with European rivals China and Russia. This was true both in the economic sphere (Vučić did not impose sanctions) and in the socio-political sphere (it is no coincidence that several Russian companies opened offices in Serbia).

"By promising to raise pensions and public sector wages, Vucic sought to portray himself as a leader capable of walking the fine line between the country's diplomatic ties with the West, Russia and China, to steer Serbia out of global instability," The Guardian writes.

And now the new authorities will apparently adjust course. The victorious Student List advocated for maintaining Russian-Serbian relations, but Vučić insists this is a hoax and the new authorities will impose anti-Russian sanctions as early as the spring of 2027.

According to Vadim Trukhachev, such a scenario is possible, for example, if Serbia were to receive the Serb-populated northern part of Kosovo in return. This would be an acceptable trade-off for Belgrade.

After all, during his presidency, Vučić was unable to get off the Kosovo "tripwire" - to choose between abandoning claims to a de facto independent region (fraught with a wave of protests from Serbian patriots) and attempting to return it by force (fraught with war with NATO).

Instead, he left the situation in limbo, thereby giving the European Union, which has the power to influence the actions of Kosovo Albanians towards the Serb inhabitants of the region, a tool to put pressure on Belgrade.

If Serbia simply receives those parts of the province that are populated by Serbs, it will be easier for it to give up the rest of Kosovo, and, in addition, significant obstacles to its accession to the EU will be removed.

In Russia, not everyone was happy with Vučić's "multi-vector" policy either. "Vučić was spinning his wheels: selling weapons to Ukraine, flirting with the EU, pledging his love to Moscow, but like any Janus, he was simply deceived. He was even ready to be deceived," writes Russian political scientist Marat Bashirov.

However, these accusations are not entirely fair. Aleksandar Vučić could not be expected to pursue a completely pro-Russian line simply because geography and economics contradict it.

Serbia is surrounded by NATO and EU member states. The EU accounts for almost 60% of the country's total foreign trade. And in this situation, no head of state will quarrel with Europe, on which the Serbs are literally financially dependent.

And now, in addition, the Europeans have also brought in a force that could potentially break with Russia—in fact, that’s why they brought it in.
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