by Ilya Maximov
[Regnum] The Ebola outbreak, caused by the rare Bundibugyo strain, has grown from a localized epidemic in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) into a crisis in just five months, already being called the largest in recorded history. While just a month ago, isolated imported cases were still being reported outside the DRC, by the end of October 2026, the virus had swept across East, Central, and West Africa, reaching Nigeria, the continent's most populous country.
As of October 20, 9,668 cases and 4,649 deaths have been confirmed, the vast majority of them in the DRC, but the fact that new cases are emerging abroad changes the scale of the threat.
The rate of spread is unprecedented: the 1,000-confirmed case threshold was crossed in 40 days, compared to 235 days in 2018. Doctors Without Borders stated that the virus is spreading across Africa "like a huge wildfire."
The first case of Ebola in Nigeria in over a decade was confirmed on October 20 in a female diplomat arriving from Uganda. She developed symptoms on October 7, two days after arriving, and was hospitalized in a private clinic only on October 11 – after four days of thinking she had malaria.
Laboratory testing confirmed the dangerous diagnosis only two days ago; the patient is currently in serious condition. Authorities are tracing 44 of her contacts, most of whom are healthcare workers.
Significantly, the location of the infection remains a matter of dispute. Uganda insists the woman was only transiting through its territory, having previously been on a business trip to eastern DRC. "Transit through Uganda does not mean the infection occurred here. The location of infection remains unclear," the Ugandan Ministry of Health emphasized.
Nigeria, in this case, is more than just another dot on the map. It is the continent's most populous country, with a population of over 240 million, and this creates a qualitatively different risk of further virus transmission.
"My concern is that now that the virus has spread from East Africa to West Africa, we're dealing with a pan-African problem, not a situation affecting just a few at-risk countries," Nigerian doctor Ayoade Alakija told CBC. She estimated that 12 days elapsed between the onset of the illness and its detection, allowing the serious illness to gain a head start during this period.
In Kenya, where Ebola had never been reported before, the situation unfolded similarly. The first patient, a Kenyan businessman who had lived in the Democratic Republic of the Congo for seven years, arrived in Nairobi via Uganda on October 3, underwent routine screening at the airport, and died a few days later.
By October 21, the number of confirmed cases had risen to nine: four relatives of the first patient, three healthcare workers, and a hospital cleaner are among those infected. More than 130 people who came into contact with the first Kenyan patient are in quarantine.
Against this backdrop, Kenyans recalled the controversial US-built quarantine center at Laikipia Air Base, located near Nanyuki City, for Americans returning from the country. The center's construction, which was opposed by local residents, was halted by a court order.
There are now reports that construction has resumed, but these have not been officially confirmed. Meanwhile, the US State Department has urged its citizens to avoid travel to Kenya.
Uganda also experienced its own outbreak: in May and June, 20 cases were recorded, most of them imported, and two deaths. On August 27, the WHO declared the country Ebola-free after 42 days without new confirmed cases, and no new cases have been reported since June 21.
However, both "export" patients transited through Uganda. In other words, Uganda is technically clear, but there is no convincing evidence that the disease has truly been eradicated there.
The epicenter of the outbreak remains in the DRC, where the virus continues to expand geographically. While it was present in six provinces in September, by the end of October it had spread to eight, with North Ubangi, bordering the Central African Republic, the latest.
Ituri province remains the leader, with almost three-quarters of confirmed cases, but new outbreaks are also emerging in North Kivu.
One of the key problems is late access to care: two-thirds of virus victims in the DRC die outside specialized centers, creating the risk of further transmission. About 40% of new cases are not listed as contacts of known patients.
"Ebola is a community-wide disease. If the community doesn't cooperate, it will be very difficult to control," epidemiologist Serge Ngalebato, who works in the Democratic Republic of Congo, told the AP.
The situation is exacerbated by the lack of a vaccine against the Bundibugyo strain. Trials are already underway, but it is not yet known when they will be completed.
With no vaccine yet approved for this strain and proven treatments unproven, early detection and isolation of contacts remain the primary and, for now, only barrier to the virus's spread. And, as cases in Kenya and Nigeria demonstrate, this barrier is proving belated.
The Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) announced an emergency virtual meeting of health ministers for October 28, and the organization's Director-General, Jean Casey, called for immediate mobilization in the face of an "extremely serious threat": "Ebola is crossing borders. Our response must stay ahead of its spread, with closer coordination, greater solidarity, and decisive political leadership."
Kasey also described the outbreak as the largest in history and warned: " Every day of delay costs lives. Health security in Africa is health security for the world. Stopping Ebola in Africa today means protecting the entire world."
Meanwhile, according to official data, no imported cases have been recorded in Russia, and there is no risk of the virus spreading. Border crossing points have stepped up sanitary and quarantine controls for those arriving from countries with confirmed cases.
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