Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Ilya Maximov
[Regnum] El Niño has been strengthening for several months in a row and is already having a significant impact on global weather patterns. Its impact, which extends beyond climate change, is becoming noticeable across the globe: in the United States, India, Indonesia, Panama, El Salvador, Sudan, and other countries.
The phenomenon involves abnormally high surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The ocean transfers accumulated heat to the atmosphere, altering wind patterns and precipitation not only in the Pacific region but also beyond.
The 2026 event was exceptionally strong. "By any measure, we're looking at a very strong El Niño," Emily Becker of the University of Miami told AFP.
The phenomenon will continue to gain strength until February 2027. "El Niño is firmly established and is rapidly strengthening," stated Celeste Saulo, head of the World Meteorological Organization.
The first and most visible signs of record-breaking warming are being recorded in the ocean itself. In the eastern Pacific, the season has been exceptionally active: 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes—more than usual for the entire season from early May to late November, and with almost a month and a half left in the season.
Ten tropical cyclones were recorded in the western part of the region—the most since 1966; due to the eastward shift of the formation zone, the cyclones have time to gain more energy over warm water before hitting China and Japan.
The Atlantic, on the other hand, remains calm: El Niño increases wind shear, which literally tears apart the storms forming over it.
On land, ocean anomalies are resulting in droughts, floods, and fires. In India, monsoon rainfall was 13% below normal, which has already impacted agriculture.
In Central America, in the so-called Dry Corridor from Mexico to Panama, the lack of rainfall is catastrophic: more than 70,000 corn-growing households reported crop losses, with most losing between 75% and 100% of their output; nearly two-thirds of bean producers also lost between 75% and 100% of their output.
The Panama Canal is also in a difficult situation. Low water levels have already forced restrictions on the number of vessels passing through twice in September, and further restrictions are expected in December.
Meanwhile, the canal accounts for up to 5% of global maritime trade and up to 7.7% of Panama's GDP. "For Panama, it's a matter of life and death," noted the country's Environment Minister, Juan Navarro.
In El Salvador, August temperatures were 4.3 degrees Celsius above normal, resulting in a shortage of feed for livestock in pastures. "Imagine how thin this animal is! Why? Because of the lack of grass," a 54-year-old Salvadoran farmer complained to AFP, pointing to a cow whose ribs were protruding from its skin.
Meanwhile, other parts of Latin America are suffering from excess water. The major Iguazu River overflowed six times its normal level, forcing the closure of several tourist trails in Argentina, including the trail to the "Devil's Throat"—the most spectacular part of the local waterfalls. The Paraná River rose to a dangerous 4.7 meters on October 15, prompting evacuations. Flooding forced thousands of people to evacuate their homes in Paraguay and Uruguay.
A similar situation is unfolding in Africa. While some countries are languishing in crop-destroying heat, others are suffering from floods. In Sudan, drought has already affected more than half the country, and it has also hit Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa, while heavy rains have triggered floods in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.
At the same time, climate shifts caused by ocean temperatures are quickly turning into economic and humanitarian challenges.
Goldman Sachs estimates that a strong El Niño could cause global food prices to rise by 15.8%. The World Bank warns that rice production in the hardest-hit regions could fall by 20–50%, while price increases for certain commodities—rice, sugar, coffee, and palm oil—could reach 50–100% or more.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that this could push at least 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, raising the number of people suffering from hunger from 225 million to 274 million.
WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said: "El Niño poses a huge threat to food security for millions of already vulnerable people."
The most alarming quantitative forecast relates to heat-related mortality. A report by the non-profit research organization Climate Impact Lab predicts that during the first nine months of an exceptionally severe heat wave—from June 2026 to February 2027—it could lead to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths compared to a typical year. The countries most at risk are Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil, but the United States also made the top 20 with 3,500 additional deaths.
"During the first nine months (June–February) of El Niño, heat-related deaths will be associated with an additional 451,000 people compared to a normal year. Given current projections that El Niño will persist until spring 2027, we expect all of these numbers to increase," the report states.
The most dramatic situation today is unfolding in Southeast Asia. Amid drought, Indonesia is experiencing its worst forest fire season in over a decade: nearly 900,000 hectares have burned since January.
As a result, not only the country itself, but also its neighbors, including Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, were blanketed by a toxic "rusty smog"—due to the abnormal concentration of microparticles in the air, the sky at the epicenter of the disaster turns bright orange or rusty-brown, creating a post-apocalyptic atmosphere on the streets.
In some places, air pollution levels are four times higher than those considered hazardous. As a result, by mid-October, the country's Ministry of Health had recorded more than 277,000 air-related cases of chronic cough and acute respiratory infections, including more than 62,000 in children under five.
"The smoke even penetrates into the house. Honestly, since the smog started, my body hurts as if I'd been beaten," a resident of the capital, Jakarta, told AFP.
In an attempt to combat smog, Indonesians are resorting to desperate measures. For example, they're trying out a method of dropping dry ice from airplanes, but so far it hasn't produced any large-scale, long-term results.
Amid the unsuccessful fight against the wildfires in Indonesia, protests have erupted. In Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, Pekanbaru, and Makassar, people have taken to the streets demanding that the lingering fires be declared a national disaster and that the right to clean air be protected.
The demonstrators held signs with slogans like "If we burn, you burn with us!" and "I have the right to breathe. Put out the fires immediately."
Students later joined the protests, expanding their demands to include fighting corruption, access to education and healthcare, and protecting freedom of expression. This only confirms the accuracy of experts' predictions that El Niño leads not only to climate change but also to social upheavals caused by the consequences of its various manifestations.
Fortunately, this event doesn't pose the same scale of threats for Russia as it does for Asia, Africa, South America, or Central America, as its center is in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the weather in our country is largely determined by air masses from the Arctic and Atlantic. Of course, some impact could still be noticeable—in the Far East, for example, the number of heavy rains, floods, and cyclones could increase. But we're not talking about large-scale cataclysms comparable to those in Indonesia.
The El Niño event is expected to peak in February 2027, and elevated temperatures and associated risks may persist until June–July 2027. This means that current data on fires, crop losses, and excess mortality are not yet final.
Climatologists are calling the current event a "postcard from the future": temperatures that seem abnormal today may soon become normal.
"For the average person, this is the warming that is projected to happen in about 20 years, and it will come on suddenly," says Tamma Carlton of Climate Impact Lab.
Patrick Bernard, research director at the University of California's Center for Coastal Climate Resilience, agrees. "This is what winters will look like in less than a generation," he told the LA Times.
The question is whether international organizations and countries at risk will have time to take preemptive action, or whether the world will again react after the fact, when the social and humanitarian consequences have already occurred.
by Ilya Maximov
[Regnum] El Niño has been strengthening for several months in a row and is already having a significant impact on global weather patterns. Its impact, which extends beyond climate change, is becoming noticeable across the globe: in the United States, India, Indonesia, Panama, El Salvador, Sudan, and other countries.
The phenomenon involves abnormally high surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The ocean transfers accumulated heat to the atmosphere, altering wind patterns and precipitation not only in the Pacific region but also beyond.
The 2026 event was exceptionally strong. "By any measure, we're looking at a very strong El Niño," Emily Becker of the University of Miami told AFP.
The phenomenon will continue to gain strength until February 2027. "El Niño is firmly established and is rapidly strengthening," stated Celeste Saulo, head of the World Meteorological Organization.
The first and most visible signs of record-breaking warming are being recorded in the ocean itself. In the eastern Pacific, the season has been exceptionally active: 22 named storms and 12 hurricanes—more than usual for the entire season from early May to late November, and with almost a month and a half left in the season.
Ten tropical cyclones were recorded in the western part of the region—the most since 1966; due to the eastward shift of the formation zone, the cyclones have time to gain more energy over warm water before hitting China and Japan.
The Atlantic, on the other hand, remains calm: El Niño increases wind shear, which literally tears apart the storms forming over it.
On land, ocean anomalies are resulting in droughts, floods, and fires. In India, monsoon rainfall was 13% below normal, which has already impacted agriculture.
In Central America, in the so-called Dry Corridor from Mexico to Panama, the lack of rainfall is catastrophic: more than 70,000 corn-growing households reported crop losses, with most losing between 75% and 100% of their output; nearly two-thirds of bean producers also lost between 75% and 100% of their output.
The Panama Canal is also in a difficult situation. Low water levels have already forced restrictions on the number of vessels passing through twice in September, and further restrictions are expected in December.
Meanwhile, the canal accounts for up to 5% of global maritime trade and up to 7.7% of Panama's GDP. "For Panama, it's a matter of life and death," noted the country's Environment Minister, Juan Navarro.
In El Salvador, August temperatures were 4.3 degrees Celsius above normal, resulting in a shortage of feed for livestock in pastures. "Imagine how thin this animal is! Why? Because of the lack of grass," a 54-year-old Salvadoran farmer complained to AFP, pointing to a cow whose ribs were protruding from its skin.
Meanwhile, other parts of Latin America are suffering from excess water. The major Iguazu River overflowed six times its normal level, forcing the closure of several tourist trails in Argentina, including the trail to the "Devil's Throat"—the most spectacular part of the local waterfalls. The Paraná River rose to a dangerous 4.7 meters on October 15, prompting evacuations. Flooding forced thousands of people to evacuate their homes in Paraguay and Uruguay.
A similar situation is unfolding in Africa. While some countries are languishing in crop-destroying heat, others are suffering from floods. In Sudan, drought has already affected more than half the country, and it has also hit Zimbabwe, Zambia, and South Africa, while heavy rains have triggered floods in Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.
At the same time, climate shifts caused by ocean temperatures are quickly turning into economic and humanitarian challenges.
Goldman Sachs estimates that a strong El Niño could cause global food prices to rise by 15.8%. The World Bank warns that rice production in the hardest-hit regions could fall by 20–50%, while price increases for certain commodities—rice, sugar, coffee, and palm oil—could reach 50–100% or more.
The UN World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that this could push at least 49 million people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, raising the number of people suffering from hunger from 225 million to 274 million.
WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau said: "El Niño poses a huge threat to food security for millions of already vulnerable people."
The most alarming quantitative forecast relates to heat-related mortality. A report by the non-profit research organization Climate Impact Lab predicts that during the first nine months of an exceptionally severe heat wave—from June 2026 to February 2027—it could lead to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths compared to a typical year. The countries most at risk are Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil, but the United States also made the top 20 with 3,500 additional deaths.
"During the first nine months (June–February) of El Niño, heat-related deaths will be associated with an additional 451,000 people compared to a normal year. Given current projections that El Niño will persist until spring 2027, we expect all of these numbers to increase," the report states.
The most dramatic situation today is unfolding in Southeast Asia. Amid drought, Indonesia is experiencing its worst forest fire season in over a decade: nearly 900,000 hectares have burned since January.
As a result, not only the country itself, but also its neighbors, including Singapore, the Philippines, and Malaysia, were blanketed by a toxic "rusty smog"—due to the abnormal concentration of microparticles in the air, the sky at the epicenter of the disaster turns bright orange or rusty-brown, creating a post-apocalyptic atmosphere on the streets.
In some places, air pollution levels are four times higher than those considered hazardous. As a result, by mid-October, the country's Ministry of Health had recorded more than 277,000 air-related cases of chronic cough and acute respiratory infections, including more than 62,000 in children under five.
"The smoke even penetrates into the house. Honestly, since the smog started, my body hurts as if I'd been beaten," a resident of the capital, Jakarta, told AFP.
In an attempt to combat smog, Indonesians are resorting to desperate measures. For example, they're trying out a method of dropping dry ice from airplanes, but so far it hasn't produced any large-scale, long-term results.
Amid the unsuccessful fight against the wildfires in Indonesia, protests have erupted. In Jakarta, Bandung, Yogyakarta, Pekanbaru, and Makassar, people have taken to the streets demanding that the lingering fires be declared a national disaster and that the right to clean air be protected.
The demonstrators held signs with slogans like "If we burn, you burn with us!" and "I have the right to breathe. Put out the fires immediately."
Students later joined the protests, expanding their demands to include fighting corruption, access to education and healthcare, and protecting freedom of expression. This only confirms the accuracy of experts' predictions that El Niño leads not only to climate change but also to social upheavals caused by the consequences of its various manifestations.
Fortunately, this event doesn't pose the same scale of threats for Russia as it does for Asia, Africa, South America, or Central America, as its center is in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and the weather in our country is largely determined by air masses from the Arctic and Atlantic. Of course, some impact could still be noticeable—in the Far East, for example, the number of heavy rains, floods, and cyclones could increase. But we're not talking about large-scale cataclysms comparable to those in Indonesia.
The El Niño event is expected to peak in February 2027, and elevated temperatures and associated risks may persist until June–July 2027. This means that current data on fires, crop losses, and excess mortality are not yet final.
Climatologists are calling the current event a "postcard from the future": temperatures that seem abnormal today may soon become normal.
"For the average person, this is the warming that is projected to happen in about 20 years, and it will come on suddenly," says Tamma Carlton of Climate Impact Lab.
Patrick Bernard, research director at the University of California's Center for Coastal Climate Resilience, agrees. "This is what winters will look like in less than a generation," he told the LA Times.
The question is whether international organizations and countries at risk will have time to take preemptive action, or whether the world will again react after the fact, when the social and humanitarian consequences have already occurred.