by Ilya Maximov
[Regnum] This winter, Europe may face a gas shortage, forcing forced consumption cuts, analysts on both sides of the Atlantic warn. Meanwhile, Europeans themselves are protesting against the continued rise in fuel prices.
The EU is entering the heating season with the lowest seasonal gas reserves in over a decade. According to the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), storage capacity at the beginning of October was 72.4%—the lowest level for this time of year since 2011.
Analysts are particularly concerned about the ban on long-term contracts for Russian LNG, which comes into effect in January. According to IEEFA estimates, this will reduce European imports by another 7 billion cubic meters, which were used to smooth out winter demand fluctuations.
This creates serious risks for the bloc's energy security. The IEEFA report warns that, given the current global market conditions, the EU will face a difficult time without Russian gas.
"Together with the EU's complete ban on Russian LNG imports from January 2027, this shortfall could require the bloc to reduce winter gas demand by 7%, or 14 billion cubic meters, compared to last winter," the document states.
As Politico notes, this volume would be enough to power 10-12 million European households. The additional LNG imports needed to compensate for the shortfall will cost Europe approximately €3 billion, 12% more than the same volume last year.
But this is not the most pessimistic forecast.
According to a report by the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), with limited LNG supplies and a cold winter, reserves could fall to 11% by the end of the heating season, which is equivalent to the strategic reserve level. In the baseline scenario, storage capacity is expected to fall to 30% by March 2027.
"Without pipeline supplies from Russia, given the cold winter, Europe will either need demand management or face unmet demand of between 9% (under an optimal LNG supply scenario) and 15% (under a limited LNG supply scenario)," the report states. The laconic phrase "demand management" clearly conceals the risk of forced shutdowns of industry and non-essential infrastructure, as well as a reduction in heating standards.
The report also emphasizes that, no matter the winter, existing gas volumes will be insufficient to simultaneously meet demand and achieve target storage levels. This means the situation will only worsen next year.
Amid the shortage, gas prices rose to €82.7 per MWh—more than €850 per thousand cubic meters, the highest since December 2022. According to Reuters, prices have risen 150% in a year, exceeding even the European Central Bank's dire forecast.
This process is accompanied by rising prices for other fuels: gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel. And along with this, heating costs are also rising, which is already irritating ordinary Europeans.
"Do we really have a choice? Just pay up and that's it. No one's asking us what to do. We'll have to cope. Like it or not, if you want to live, you have to pay. No other options," a Narva resident admitted to ERR.
The energy crisis is already having a noticeable impact on the political situation in Europe. In Germany, the bloc's largest economy, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party won state elections, calling for renewed cooperation with Moscow and the restoration of contracts for cheap Russian fuel.
The continued rise in support for the AfD in state elections is increasing pressure on Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who is unable to offer credible alternatives. A similar situation is developing in several other EU countries.
Against this backdrop, a new wave of demonstrations has already begun in the bloc's countries. In the heart of Italy, just a few dozen kilometers from Rome, farmers took to the road with tractors, dumping grain, vegetables, and fruit onto the asphalt in protest against high fuel prices. "We can't take this anymore!" the protesters chanted.
Elsewhere in the country, their colleagues flooded the roadway with milk to protest high production costs. "Today's demonstrations signal a point of no return: immediate, concrete, and structural measures are needed," the farmers said in their demands to the government.
Protests also took place in Moldova, where Prime Minister Vasile Tofan had previously called on citizens to pray for a warm winter. "All we can do is go to church and light a candle, as the prime minister suggested, praying for a safe winter," one protester told Live TV, pointing out that heating costs had already become an unbearable burden for citizens.
Apparently, what's happening in Italy and Moldova is just the beginning. Demonstrations coordinated by the Spanish agricultural workers' union UNASPI have already been announced across Europe, scheduled to begin on October 31. Farmers, livestock breeders, fishermen, and freelancers are expected to participate.
With much of the EU already engulfed in protests for various reasons, the situation is becoming even more explosive. Under these circumstances, national governments are trying to find a way out, but are unable to reach a compromise.
Greece and Italy, for example, have called at the government level for additional fiscal flexibility to support households and businesses. Simply put, they wanted to break the existing EU budget rules to allow spending on aid to businesses and households to exceed established spending limits.
The discussion was, for example, about channeling the excess revenues that countries began to receive from VAT towards these purposes amid rising inflation. In other words, it wasn't a request for financial assistance, but rather permission to manage their own resources.
However, at the Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg, they encountered resistance: the Netherlands and Belgium opposed loosening fiscal rules. As a result, the proposal was rejected.
"We must maintain economic activity without jeopardizing stability," Eurogroup President Kyriakos Pierrakakis said in response to the proposal, putting economic performance above the interests of European citizens.
Meanwhile, the problem already extends beyond the current heating season. Ireland, which holds the EU Council Presidency, has proposed cutting the next seven-year budget by 8%—approximately €159 billion out of the nearly €2 trillion.
The European Commission warns that this will weaken the ability to respond to crises. "We will have no way to help farmers and regions when crises hit—whether from climate change or geopolitical tensions," one diplomat told Politico.
Germany and its allies, in turn, are demanding even deeper cuts, calling the proposed measures to optimize budget spending insufficient.
The energy crisis is already putting pressure on European businesses. A survey of 3,100 companies by the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry found that 49% had increased their electricity costs, and 67% had increased their heating costs.
About a third of companies have postponed investments in key processes, more than 40% said energy prices are hitting competitiveness, and about a fifth are considering or are already moving production abroad.
Thus, Europe faces a difficult choice. Purchasing additional LNG at record prices requires funds unavailable in the budget, while reduced consumption will inevitably hit industry and households.
Under these conditions, residents of the European Union can only hope for favorable weather and wait for a miracle in the form of stabilization of the situation in the Middle East. Otherwise, their homes will become colder.