by Leonid Tsukanov
[Regnum] By early October, pro-Saudi forces in Yemen attempted to take revenge and drive the Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement from the coast. The ambitious Operation Yemen Dawn was billed as the "final war for the country" and was intended to end with a swift triumph for the government camp.
In practice, however, the offensive yielded no dividends for Saudi Arabia's loyalists. However, it seriously angered the Houthis and, in some places, accelerated their counterattack.
CALM THE SAUDIS
After Ansar Allah forces seized Yemen's entire western coast and established operational control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the situation for Yemen's central authorities significantly worsened. Having lost access to the Red Sea, Aden could no longer receive military supplies from Saudi Arabia in the same volumes as before, nor could it conduct maritime trade with the Red Sea states.
Moreover, having fully gained access to the sea, the Houthis intensified their attacks on Saudi territory, increasing their density, frequency, and precision, which caused legitimate concern in Riyadh.
In an attempt to somehow calm the House of Saud, the leader of Yemen's Presidential Council, Rashad Muhammad al-Alimi, who had previously personally persuaded Riyadh to support his "small victorious war," proposed diverting Ansar Allah's attention to the domestic front and proclaimed Operation Yemen Dawn—a large-scale counteroffensive whose strategic goal was the complete liberation of Yemen from the Houthis.
Despite the fact that preparations for the operation were carried out on a tight schedule (less than two weeks), serious consideration was placed on it. Aden declared a general mobilization in the territories under its control, called upon tribal militias, and, according to some reports, even received reinforcements in the form of a large group of mercenaries from African and Latin American countries.
In early October, Al-Alimi's troops went all in.
MEDIA VICTORIES
At first, it seemed as if the government camp had truly gathered its strength. The Presidential Council's troops managed to overthrow the Houthi advance units and recapture vast territories near the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the towns of Zubab and Murad, as well as lay the groundwork for liberating the "key to the strait," Mayun Island.
The internet quickly became flooded with videos of Houthis fleeing and surrendering, as well as clips of government flags being raised over populated areas. The selection also included some rather unusual scenes.
For example, a video went viral showing armored vehicles of the Presidential Council's troops crushing Houthi tribal militias who had dropped their weapons, accompanied by the approving laughter of the cameraman.
For viewers within Yemen, such a painting was intended to symbolize ruthlessness toward the enemy (and, judging by the responses in the Arabic-speaking segment of X*, it achieved this goal). However, outside the Arab world, the action was not well received—Aden was consistently condemned by European human rights activists and UN officials.
Even Saudi courtiers (who were clearly aware of their protégés' media plans) pointedly wagged their fingers at Aden, asking him to respect the laws of war and the Geneva Conventions. Especially since Operation Yemen Dawn had only just begun, and casting a negative shadow over it would be imprudent.
QUICK PAYBACK
However, the Presidential Council's "convincing victories" remained largely online. On the ground, the situation quickly began to shift against the Saudi loyalists.
After initial successes, the Presidential Council forces were driven from the coast to the Ras al-Ara region, from where they launched an ambitious offensive. Moreover, while stabilizing the southwestern front, Ansar Allah forces increased pressure in Taiz province.
Within a few days, they had managed to take control of the main roads, cut off communications with the capital, and encircled the provincial capital. The threat of an invasion by Houthi advance units into the provincial capital arose.
The Houthis also did not forgive their opponents' abuse of their defeated allies. Just a few days after the targeted attacks, Ansar Allah intelligence identified the culprits (they turned out to be soldiers from the 13th Regiment of the Al-Amalik Brigades) and tracked their location.
The military camp was then engulfed in intense artillery fire. More than 30 people were killed, including almost all the commanders of the unit involved in the massacre.
Pro-Saudi forces in other provinces were similarly attacked. And the Houthis, through their spokesman, Yahya Sari, succinctly informed Aden that "the jokes are over" and that Sana'a's aggression would be met with a proportionate response.
SAVE THE WHOLE WORLD
The situation in Yemen has had as much impact on the Saudis as on their Yemeni protégés. From the first days of the "Yemen Dawn" offensive, Ansar Allah missile forces intensified their attacks on Saudi territory, targeting airbases and airports, as well as oil and gas facilities.
Despite significantly strengthening their air defense system and urgently purchasing interceptor missiles from their neighbors, the Saudis are still unable to completely "close the skies." The country's air force is suffering, albeit minor, losses, and oil shipments from the country are experiencing periodic disruptions. Retaliatory strikes on Yemeni territory have only a temporary deterrent effect.
Against this backdrop, the Mecca Pact allies, on whose assistance the House of Saud had clearly been counting, are plunging ever deeper into the conflict (Pakistani pilots, according to local media, have even begun carrying out air raids behind Ansar Allah lines), but are still avoiding ground operations.
This forces the Saudis to seek help even from less prepared partners – in particular, to persuade Syria to send a contingent for a ground operation in Yemen.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia remains reluctant to engage in ground war in Yemen, fearing another entanglement in a serious conflict. However, the closer the Houthis get to Aden, the less room Riyadh has to maneuver.