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Caribbean-Latin America

Brazil's elections aren't over yet, but students are already rioting

2026-10-11

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Olga Kuznetsova

[Regnum] As soon as the first round of the presidential elections in Brazil ended, with right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro winning, mass demonstrations began across the country, with students leading the way.

Organized by the Black Bloc, no doubt, rather than anything remotely spontaneous.
Students from Fluminense Federal University were the first to make their mark: on the campus of the Faculty of Law, they demonstrated in support of leftist candidate and incumbent President Lula da Silva and called for the prevention of an amnesty for former leader Jair Bolsonaro. Political analysts predict Bolsonaro's son will also win the runoff on October 25.

Attempting to punish them for daring to stand against the Left? How unoriginal.

Following this protest, representatives of other educational institutions in 14 Brazilian states issued similar statements. According to local media, more than 40 national universities are holding events in support of Lula da Silva.

Who, pray tell, is financing all these spontaneous protests? Communist China via pro-communist tech tycoon Neville Roy Singham, who has been doing so here, or someone similar?

Protests take a wide variety of forms, including street demonstrations, rallies, and plenary sessions of student councils and graduate student organizations. The schedule of protests has already been approved until October 13, and they intend to continue without interruption until the start of the second round.

The exact number of protesters is unknown, but the largest march in Rio de Janeiro on October 7th was attended by "thousands of people." They are concerned about a wide range of issues, but the key trigger is a complete shift toward the United States should Flávio Bolsonaro win.

NOT JUST ANYONE'S BACKYARD
American media affiliated with the Democratic Party are broadcasting the protesters' point of view: some are openly saying that if Flavio Bolsonaro wins, "Brazil will become an American colony."

Others fear that Flávio will begin to implement all the ideas of the Bolsonaro family's great friend, US President Donald Trump, and will "persecute" representatives of sexual minorities, feminists, and Afro-Brazilians.

Others cannot forgive Bolsonaro Sr.'s policies during the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed over 700,000 people.

Others recall the behavior of Flavio's brother, Eduardo Bolsonaro, who actively called for trade sanctions against Brazil and always sought to turn the country into "America's backyard."

Eduardo Bolsonaro's aspirations have already partially come true. In July, Trump ordered the US Treasury to impose 25% tariffs on most Brazilian imports, dealing a significant blow to the country's economy and increasing the number of enemies of the influential family.

However, at this stage, protesters are not crossing the line, have hardly been seen clashing with the police, and are primarily engaged in political agitation, rousing Brazil's youth ahead of the second round of presidential elections.

Some even suggest calling what's happening not protests, but a "review of protest potential," which, if Flávio Bolsonaro wins, could quickly spread to the streets of the capital and provincial capitals.

These claims are not without common sense, since student organizations, along with several trade unions, are a key asset of Lula da Silva and have already been used by him on several occasions in domestic political conflicts with right-wing officials.

For example, in October 2025, Rio de Janeiro's right-wing governor, Cláudio Castro, carried out a large-scale police operation in the favelas of Peña and Alemão without the consent of the presidential team, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Favelas have long been a left-wing stronghold, so this move was perceived as an attack on Lula's team.

Then, public sector employees and leftist activists took to the streets of Rio. They demanded an investigation into the actions of the police and Governor Castro, who had turned the city's poorest neighborhoods into a "war zone" and effectively carried out vigilante justice.

Bolsonaro's clan supporters backed the militant governor, but he was ousted a few months later amid a series of scandals that exposed allegations of investment fraud and bribery.

As the confrontation between Brazil's domestic political elites intensified in the wake of the elections, many American experts wrote even before the vote began that the Bolsonaroists were amassing all their resources to rally their supporters for protests and, if necessary, to wrest their coveted victory by force.

Lula's team, familiar with the methods of pro-American forces and not averse to using the same techniques to their own advantage, decided to approach the final round fully armed.

After all, by now it is already clear that if the right wins, a “witch hunt” could begin in the country.

EVERYONE BITES
One of the key players in Brazil's political life is the nation's Supreme Court, which in recent years has become almost the Bolsonaro family's main enemy.

Particularly furious was Judge Alexandre de Moraes, who played a key role in preparing the legal basis for the arrest of the elder Bolsonaro and the prosecution of many of his supporters who took part in the anti-government protests in January 2023.

And now, while students are taking to the streets, Moraes has issued an arrest warrant for the brother of presidential candidate Eduardo Bolsonaro, who currently lives in Texas.

If returned to his homeland, he faces more than four years in prison for pressuring the Brazilian judiciary and attempting to impose restrictions on Brazilian officials by the United States. The court deemed the duties imposed by the United States to be an "element of pressure."

However, things aren't going particularly well for Moraes himself. He was accused of ties to the owners of Banco Master, who committed fraud amounting to millions of Brazilian reals and allegedly sought advice from Moraes' wife, and then from Moraes himself, at the firm. The charges and correspondence were presented by Moraes's Supreme Court colleague, André Mendonça, a Bolsonaro clan supporter.

Moraes called the scandal "political revenge" and "an attempt at foreign interference in Brazil's internal affairs," but the biggest split in the Supreme Court in recent years has already occurred.

Flavio Bolsonaro's team is actively exploiting the situation, demanding Moraes' immediate resignation and a review of all his convictions, including those against Jair Bolsonaro.

For now, this case has been put on hold due to preparations for national elections, but it will inevitably resurface once the results are announced. And if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the presidency, his supporters in the Supreme Court could gain the strength they need to deal a crushing blow to Moraes's career.

IS THE WINNER CLEAR?
After the first round results were announced, showing Flávio Bolsonaro with approximately 47% of the vote, a long-standing Brazilian practice emerged: most of the previous contenders try to align themselves with the first round winner and develop the necessary connections with the potential president.

Despite the fact that the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula is minimal, Augusto Curi, who took third place in the first round, the candidate from the New Party, Romeu Zema, and other rivals of Lula have already joined the right-wing camp.

Kuri alone could "gift" Bolsonaro several million votes. It's also worth remembering that this arrangement gives Bolsonaro a majority of seats in the Brazilian Senate.

However, Lula da Silva isn't giving up hope—at least not publicly. He once again addressed the public and declared that he will certainly win the election. And the student protesters could play a significant role in that.

The fact is that the current Brazilian elections were also "famous" for the fact that almost a fifth of the population—more than 33 million people—did not vote. Approximately 20% of them were young people.

Young people rarely bother to vote. We see the same thing here in America, where despite talking about feeling keenly about the issues, most don’t vote until closer to thirty, or even older. Voting likelihood increases with age until about a decade after retirement.

Lula's strategy here is to inspire these people to go to the polls and vote the right way.

However, there's another caveat. Voting in Brazilian elections is mandatory, and those who fail to vote face fines and restrictions on access to government services. Despite this, over 33 million people ignored the potential inconvenience, making it clear they were not satisfied with any of the candidates on offer.

The current circumstances suggest that conflict over the election results will inevitably arise, meaning the potential for aggressive protests that could easily escalate into unrest is high.

Of course, Lula's team can make a big difference, but they're running out of time. And regional trends, which favor a right-wing victory, aren't in the incumbent leader's favor.

However, this is no reason to congratulate Flávio Bolsonaro. He will inherit a country where a significant portion of the population views both his cooperation with the US and his economic initiatives with great skepticism and negativity.

Ditto with all the other Latin American countries that recently elected pro-Trump populist conservatives. But they all started rapidly turning things around, winning over ever increasing numbers of those originally opposed. Brazil can hope for the same if Bolsonaro wins.

Repression against Lula's supporters will not help, which means more productive initiatives will have to be considered.

An interesting tidbit:

The third-place finisher behind Bolsonaro and Lula -- Augusto Cury -- has just come out and endorsed Flavio Bolsonaro in the run-off.

Lula's prospects for overcoming his first-round deficit grow dimmer by the day.
— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 8, 2026

Posted by:badanov

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