by Gregor Spitzen
[Regnum] Three weeks before the start of the heating season, which formally begins in Germany on October 1, the filling level of German gas storage facilities remains low, at just 55%.
This is the lowest level in the 15 years since occupancy levels have been recorded. For example, at this time in 2025, occupancy was over 74%. And winter is coming soon.
An equally pressing issue is the price of natural gas during the peak season. Last week, the price per megawatt-hour of natural gas for November delivery on the Amsterdam TTF exchange rose to almost €75. This is the highest price in two years.
Meanwhile, gas for the first quarter of next year is currently available for just over €72. Therefore, anyone who buys gas in November and stores it for sale during the cold winter days of the new year is incurring losses.
According to industry agency Ines, which tracks energy price dynamics, storage facilities can technically be filled to 77% capacity by November 1. This is also supported by storage space reservations: currently, 83% of capacity is reserved by gas traders.
"However, technical feasibility alone does not guarantee adequate filling," warns Ines. For this to happen, the pace of filling must accelerate significantly. "If filling remains at the current low level, then the filling level that is still technically achievable will decrease over time." The colder the winter, the higher the risk of gas shortages.
The low occupancy rates are primarily due to the Persian Gulf crisis. Gas prices typically drop in the summer. In the Northern Hemisphere, heating is practically unused, so fuel is in abundance.
In theory, this is the best time for traders to buy cheap gas, fill storage facilities, and then sell it at a premium when temperatures drop. However, since Iranian missiles struck liquefied natural gas export terminals in Qatar, the global market has been short 20% of gas. Prices have skyrocketed since the summer, disrupting the traditional business model.
Even legal requirements don't change anything. They stipulate that by November 1, most gas storage facilities must be 80% full, while for six—due to special conditions—45% is sufficient. However, there are no penalties for failure to comply with these requirements.
In a worst-case scenario, the state could intervene and fill the storage facilities. Through Trading Hub Europe, the company responsible for the smooth operation of the German gas market, the federal government could purchase gas.
In 2022, after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the then federal government had already prevented a shortage in this way. However, strong demand from Germany led to a sharp rise in prices—the markets did not ignore the emergency situation in the Federal Republic.
According to some estimates, the German government bought up all available gas volumes on the market during the 2022/2023 season, spending €26 billion on this, in order to fill gas storage facilities and avoid an apocalyptic scenario.
The Federal Ministry of Economics is determined to prevent a repeat of this situation at all costs—and has been calling for calm for weeks. "Germany is well supplied with gas," Economics Minister Katherina Reiche hastened to assure just last week. The ministry's draft document for the extraordinary meeting of the Bundestag Committee on Economic Affairs and Energy conveys a similar message.
However, it stresses that “unusual weather conditions or infrastructure scenarios may lead to additional stress.”
The dilemma is clear: if the government intervenes, prices will rise, but the likelihood of winter shortages will become less likely. If it leaves everything to the market, prices will be lower, but the risk of winter problems will increase.
Sahra Wagenknecht, who won a seat in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament with her BSW party in the recent elections, plans to introduce a proposal to supply local storage facilities with Russian gas via the Nord Stream pipeline, one line of which remained intact after the terrorist attack.
However, it is unlikely that the current German government would approve such a move, while the federal states lack the authority to make such decisions independently.
Reiche points out that sufficient quantities of the gas can be delivered via a pipeline from Norway and recently built liquefied natural gas terminals. However, this doesn't apply to very cold winter days: in such cases, storage facilities would also be required.
Secondly, it would be reckless to make a country of 84 million dependent on a single pipeline from Norway. Or to rely recklessly on LNG tankers, which could at any moment turn to Asia because they offer better prices, as happened during the pandemic.
Meanwhile, countries whose energy supply systems before the 2022 crisis were largely oriented towards stable supplies of cheap pipeline gas from Russia are demanding compensation from the EU due to the forced reduction in Russian energy exports.
Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar said the country's government will ask the European Union to include compensation for countries refusing Russian energy supplies in the bloc's new seven-year budget.
Speaking in Bratislava at a press conference following the summit of the Visegrad Group, which includes Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, Magyar called on the EU to put forward concrete initiatives to support Central European companies in the energy transition.
The Hungarian Prime Minister noted that the global energy situation remains "extremely difficult" as many countries face shortages of gasoline and diesel fuel.
Magyar warned that EU member states' budgets are unlikely to withstand further financial pressure. He also noted that maintaining the fuel price cap would "inevitably" lead to deficits.
The head of the Hungarian government said that European leaders have limited themselves to general slogans about maintaining fair conditions for doing business, while Central European companies face the risk of bankruptcy due to the inability to pay electricity and gas bills.
"We need concrete proposals for all European citizens," Magyar said, stressing the need to clarify how exactly support will be provided to businesses.
The Tisza party, which won the parliamentary elections on April 12, previously promised to free Hungary from dependence on Russian fuel by 2035. However, its program does not specify specific measures to achieve this goal.
Upon taking power, the Magyar government continued to declare its commitment to reducing dependence on Russian energy resources and diversifying its list of suppliers. At the same time, the Hungarian cabinet acknowledged that completely cutting off Russian oil and gas supplies was not yet feasible and would continue to cooperate with Moscow in this area.
Currently, Hungary receives oil mainly through the Druzhba pipeline and gas through the Turkish Stream pipeline, as well as through lines passing through Bulgaria and Serbia.
According to the association of gas infrastructure operators Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), gas reserves in underground storage facilities across Europe stood at 68.04% as of September 12. This is 16.29% lower than the average for that date over the past five years.
Low reserves are forcing European governments to actively refill storage facilities ahead of the heating season, which inevitably leads to higher gas prices.
In 2025, under former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Hungary imported more than 8.5 million tons of oil and more than 7 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia.
At a summit in New Delhi, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that it was European buyers' demands to switch to short-term contracts that had driven the EU energy sector into crisis.
Therefore, Russian gas, which Europeans once bought for $150–180 per thousand cubic meters, can now cost more than $1,000 after the transition to exchange pricing and the abandonment of pipeline gas from Russia.
Three days later, the Russian leader's prediction was fully justified: on September 14, the price of natural gas in the EU rose significantly due to concerns about a supply shortage caused by supply disruptions from production areas in the Persian Gulf.
At the start of trading on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, the price of the TTF futures contract for the delivery of natural gas in a month jumped by more than 5% to reach €83.75 per megawatt-hour, or $1,004 per thousand cubic meters—the highest level since the end of 2022.