by Kamran Gasanov
Türkiye announced an unprecedented 229% increase in its defense budget under its 2027–2029 medium-term program. Ankara is preparing for potential wars.
Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz announced a record increase in defense spending. Defense spending is the largest of the seven key areas of the new economic program he presented.
According to the vice president, the goal of such measures is independence in the military-industrial complex, the development of domestic technologies, and the production of high-value-added weapons. In practical terms, this means accelerating programs to develop domestic fighter jets (including the much-hyped KAAN), air defense systems, UAVs, and armored vehicles.
There's no doubt that Türkiye is capable of churning out new aircraft and tanks, even if there are occasional problems with Western engines and technology. But where will the money come from?
Funding will likely come not only from the treasury, but also from large-scale foreign investment. High hopes lie with the Persian Gulf countries, which a couple of years ago allocated significant funds to save the sinking lira.
The Meccan Alliance and Arab Money
Unlike three years ago, when Turkey was just making peace with Saudi Arabia and the Emirates, overcoming disagreements with them in Libya and Qatar, Ankara and the Arab world are now building full-fledged alliances.
On August 7, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Defense Agreement, a pact providing for a collective response to aggression against any of the parties.
At the end of the month, the first meeting of the strategic political and defense committee of the three countries was held in Istanbul, where the parties confirmed their intention to actively cooperate in the military-industrial complex, including joint development and production.
In other words, Saudi Arabia is ready to invest in the Turkish military. The kingdom is currently negotiating participation in the production of KAAN fighter jets. It is interested in purchasing a batch of 20-100 aircraft. Three years ago, the Saudis purchased Bayraktars (TB2 and Bayraktar Akıncı) from Turkey.
Qatar, a more traditional regional ally, is also investing in Turkey, purchasing unmanned boats and frigates. The Turks, in turn, are purchasing Eurofighter fighter jets from Qatar.
Bahrain and Kuwait plan to join the "Mecca Union." Why are Arab monarchies so interested in military cooperation with Turkey? The answer is simple: they need weapons of their own.
All of the listed Arab countries continue to face retaliatory attacks from Iran and its allies. On September 8, the Houthis carried out perhaps their most extensive attack on Saudi Arabia, using drones and missiles.
America is provoking Iran and doing nothing to shield its regional "allies." The only country the Americans will actually save with munitions is Israel.
When the US is perceived as an unreliable partner, Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine, China is uninvolved, Europe is spineless and hypocritical, and Iran is forced to become a threat, the only option is to rely on Sunni Turkey. The Turkish military-industrial complex becomes an alternative for the Arabs—affordable, technologically advanced, and politically acceptable.
Greece, Israel and the Shield of Achilles
Regional affairs are also a concern for Turkey itself. The Turks, of course, aren't thrilled with Iran, and regardless of their criticism of the US war against Iran, the centuries-old rivalry with the Persians will persist.
But the more real threat is Israel. In the middle of last month, the Israeli Air Force bombed the Syrian base of Abu Duhur, where the IDF believed Turkish troops and equipment were to be stationed. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Recep Tayyip Erdoğan against drawing Turkey into "dangerous adventures in Syria."
The second threat is increasingly intertwined with Israel's. At the end of 2025, Israel signed an agreement on joint military exercises and defense with Greece and Cyprus, and after the August shelling of Syria, Israel and Greece signed a $3.5 billion agreement to build the Achilles Shield air defense system.
This is the largest defense deal in the history of bilateral relations. The joint system, which will be operational in three years, will link Israeli SPYDER radars and air defense systems with Greek Patriot air defense systems, Belharra frigates, Rafale fighters, and F-16 Vipers.
The Turkish Ministry of Defense said it is monitoring Israeli-Greek cooperation and preparing scenarios ranging from crisis to war.
At the same time, Greece is militarizing islands in the Aegean Sea, which the Turks claim violates the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne and the 1947 Peace of Paris, which require the demilitarization of several islands (Limnos, Karpathos, and others). Athens rejects these claims, citing the right to self-defense and regional instability.
Distrust of the West
Benjamin Netanyahu is becoming increasingly toxic to the European Union. EU member states are imposing sanctions on Israel, recognizing Palestine, and, amid distrust of Trump, are seeking rapprochement with Erdoğan. However, Ankara remains wary of the West.
At the "right hour," Brussels will choose the side of the Greeks and Israelis rather than Turkish Muslims. It was not for nothing that Ursula von der Leyen called Turkey a threat this summer. Carefully concealed pro-Israeli sentiments in Europe are being exposed by attempts to pressure Iran through sanctions.
Therefore, along with the creation of an independent military-industrial complex and an alliance with Sunni countries, Erdogan is trying to strengthen the bonds of partnership with the “global majority” on another chessboard.
This was confirmed by the Turkish leader's visit to Bishkek, where he took part in a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.
He once again made it clear that Turkey wants to become a full member of the SCO. The same plans exist for BRICS. Erdogan is using the SCO and BRICS summits to demonstrate that he has alternatives.
Following the NATO summit in Ankara, the Republic of Turkey once again tilted toward the West. But after the first Ukrainian air strikes against its ships in the Black Sea and the escalating crisis in Hormuz, it once again recalled Russia's importance.
Erdoğan discussed his mediation in Ukraine with Vladimir Putin in Kyrgyzstan, which has become even more urgent following the visits of Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Russia. Meanwhile, Ankara reached an agreement with Moscow on the supply of mineral fertilizers, which have led to a global shortage due to the Hormuz blockade.
Ultimately, militarization will allow Turkey to earn money from exports to increasingly arms-hungry Middle Eastern countries, increase its independence from NATO countries, and have the ability to conduct military operations or flex its muscles in the most tense parts of the Mediterranean and Middle East.