Long. You’ll want a cup of coffee and a bit of something to eat to accompany this one, dear Reader.
[Jpost] Israel and India's strongest response to a new security bloc may not be another bloc. It is the ability to stand independently and to have capable partners standing with you.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a call with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 6. The very following day, Saudi Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula, largely made up of sand and oil rigs. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual haj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. Formerly dictatorial and steeped in Olde Tyme Religion, deferring to Salafist holy men on all issues, it has now done a 180 and is making a serious effort to modernize, so as not to be left in the sand by its Gulf Arab neighbors. The holy men have been shoved to the background and the nation is now still dictatorial but somewhat rational. That doesn't make them trustworthy, but it's a start..., Pakistain, and
...a NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A cautionary tale of cost-benefit analysis....
member, but not the most reliable...
signed a mutual defense pact in Mecca. Does the sequence of events suggest a connection, or is it simply a coincidence?
There is no evidence the two events were connected. But the sequence is striking enough to deserve attention.
The Mecca Joint Defense Agreement states that an armed attack against one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against all three, inviting comparisons with NATO's Article 5.
But is this really an Islamic NATO-type alliance?
Or is it, instead, an instrument of deterrence, political signaling, and strategic positioning?
For both Israel and India, that distinction matters. But first let us revisit some key events from last year.
FROM SAUDI-PAKISTAN TO A THREE-WAY PACT
The story began publicly in September 2025, when Saudi Arabia and Pakistain signed their Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement.
Saudi Arabia gained a deeper military relationship with Pakistain, the only openly nuclear-armed Moslem-majority country. Pakistain gained an even stronger strategic relationship with a wealthy and influential Gulf power.
Then Turkey entered the picture.
Pakistain's principal military adversary is India, while its relationship with Israel has long been openly hostile. For instance, Pak Defense Minister Khawaja Asif recently called for "Moslem countries to unite against Israel."
Turkey brings another dimension.
President His Enormity, Sultan Recep Tayyip Erdogan the First
...Turkey's version of Mohammed Morsi but they voted him back in so they deserve him. It's a sin, a shame, and a felony to insult the president of Turkey. In Anatolia did Recep Bey a stately Presidential Palace decree, that has 1100 rooms. That's 968 more than in the White House, 400 more than in Versailles, and 325 more than Buckingham Palace, so you know who's really more important...
has positioned Turkey as one of Israel's strongest political opponents over Gazoo and the Paleostinian issue. At the same time, Turkey is a NATO member and has developed an increasingly independent security role in the Moslem world.
Its growing defense relationship with Pakistain and repeated support for Pakistain's position on Kashmir
...a disputed territory lying between India and Pakistain. After partition, the Paks grabbed half of it and call it
Azad (Free) Kashmir. The remainder they refer to as "Indian Occupied Kashmir". They have fought four wars with India over it, the score currently 4-0 in New Delhi's favor. After 72 years of this nonsense, India cut the Gordian knot in 2019, removing the area's special status, breaking off Ladakh as a separate state, and allowing people from other areas to settle (or in the case of the Pandits, to resettle) there....
add another layer.
India and Israel, meanwhile, are both strengthening defense relationships with Greece and Cyprus, countries with longstanding disputes with Turkey.
WHAT DOES ’AN ATTACK ON ONE IS AN ATTACK ON ALL’ ACTUALLY MEAN?
This terminology sounds like NATO.
But NATO's Article 5 does not automatically mean that every member goes to war when another is attacked. Members ultimately determine the nature of the response.
The Mecca agreement appears similarly flexible. Ottoman Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan has described its collective defense provision as technically comparable to Article 5, while stressing that the nature of assistance would depend on circumstances.
That leaves the crucial question:
What happens when the pact is actually tested?
Saudi Arabia has been attacked multiple times by Iran and Iranian proxies such as the Iran's Houthi sock puppets
...a Zaidi Shia insurgent group operating in Yemen. They have also been referred to as the
Believing Youth. Hussein Badreddin al-Houthi is said to be the spiritual leader of the group and most of the military leaders are his relatives. The legitimate Yemeni government has accused the them of having ties to the Iranian government. Honest they did. The group has managed to gain control over all of Saada Governorate and parts of Amran, Al Jawf and Hajjah Governorates. Its slogan is
God is Great, Death to Americaâ„¢, Death to Israel, a curse on the JewsThey like shooting off... ummm... missiles that they would have us believe they make at home in their basements. On the plus side, they did murder Ali Abdullah Saleh, which was the only way the country was ever going to be rid of him...
s in Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of...
. If these attacks continue or escalate significantly, to what extent would Turkey and Pakistain be willing to support Saudi Arabia with weapons, intelligence, air defense systems, or troops? More importantly, under what circumstances, if any, would either country be willing to deploy forces and actually fight on Saudi territory?
That ambiguity may be deliberate. The pact may be intended primarily to deter an attack, but that deterrence depends on Iran believing Turkey and Pakistain would actually respond if Saudi Arabia were attacked.
The pact also offers these countries a chance to expand their influence in the Gulf and establish themselves as powers with a greater say in regional security. An attack on Saudi Arabia could therefore become far more complicated for Iran, potentially drawing Turkey and Pakistain into a confrontation alongside the US and Israel.
But economics may ultimately impose limits: Pakistain cannot afford a regional war, while Saudi Arabia itself depends heavily on stable trade, energy exports, and maritime routes. And if Turkey became embroiled in a conflict with Greece or Israel, this would raise an even more fundamental question: Would Pakistain really risk its own economic interests to follow Turkey into a wider war? These aspects will determine whether the agreement is a genuine security commitment or largely political theatre.
Saudi Arabia may be the most interesting member of the pact. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman
...Crown Prince and modernizer of Saudi Arabia as of 2016. The Turks hate him, so he must be all right, despite the occasional brutal murder of Qatar-owned journalists...
, has spent years trying to transform the kingdom through Saudi Vision 2030, economic diversification, technology, and investment. Normalization with Israel once appeared compatible with that strategy.
However,
if you can't say something nice about a person some juicy gossip will go well...
Riyadh has tied any normalization with Israel to Paleostinian statehood, making the Paleostinian issue both a diplomatic condition and a source of political leverage. For Turkey and Pakistain, championing the Paleostinian cause also offers a way to strengthen their standing across the Moslem world while positioning themselves as independent regional powers.
The Moslem world, however, is far too fragmented for this to become a simple "Moslem countries unite against Israel" scenario.
The UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco, for example, are part of the Abraham Accords and have pursued normalized relations with Israel. At the same time, the UAE has also emerged as an increasingly important strategic partner of India.
A DIFFERENT MAP: FOLLOW THE MARITIME ROUTES
In matters concerning the Middle East, geography plays a significant role.
On a conventional map, the Mecca pact creates a striking triangle: Turkey to the north-west, Saudi Arabia to the south and Pakistain to the east. Strategically, those three countries occupy important positions across the region.
But geography looks different if we follow the maritime routes.
The critical question is not simply who controls territory, but who can help keep the sea lanes open.
The EU-India security and defense partnership specifically includes maritime security, while India and La Belle France have committed to deeper operational cooperation and freedom of navigation across the Indian Ocean and wider Indo-Pacific.
At the other end of this strategic arc, Israel's recognition of Somaliland
...Republic of Somaliland is an unrecognised sovereign state in the Horn of Africa, recognised internationally as a de jure part of Somalia. It is located in the southern coast of the Gulf of Aden with approximately 5.7 million residents as of 2021. The capital and largest city is Hargeisa. The government regards itself as the successor state to British Somaliland, which united from 1960 to 1991 with the Trust Territory of Somaliland (the former Italian Somaliland) to form the Somali Republic. Under the Siad Barre regime, Somaliadestroyed ninety percent of Hargeisa Per international law, once you're in, you gotta stay in, no matter how bad it smells....
in December 2025 has given Jerusalem a new relationship in the Horn of Africa, directly adjacent to the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
This does not create a formal counter-alliance. But it produces a different strategic picture.
The Mecca pact may look powerful when drawn across the landmass. Still, the picture changes when the map is drawn along the maritime arteries connecting the Indian Ocean, the Red Sea, and the Mediterranean.
That is where India's relationships with Europe, Israel, the wider Gulf, and the Horn of Africa become increasingly significant.
IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA AND ISRAEL
India and Israel are not members of a mutual-defense treaty. Yet their strategic partnership is far more substantial than that distinction suggests.
The relationship includes decades of defense cooperation, from the Barak-8/MRSAM air defense system to unmanned systems, radar, surveillance, precision weapons, electronic warfare, cyber, and intelligence cooperation.
More importantly, the relationship is moving from procurement toward industrial integration, with joint development, production, and technology cooperation becoming increasingly important.
That is the real strength of the partnership: reliability built over time rather than promises written on paper. This is what a strategic partnership looks like when it is built over time.
From Kargil
... three months of unprovoked Pak aggression, over 4000 dead Paks, another victory for India ...
to Uri and the security challenges following Pahalgam, India's experience has reinforced Israel's practical value as a dependable defense partner.
The relationship may not be a formal mutual-defense alliance, but it has demonstrated something that can matter more than treaty language: reliability when security is at stake.
The Mecca agreement should neither be dismissed nor exaggerated.
It may remain primarily a deterrence mechanism. It may be intended to strengthen the strategic positions of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistain. Or it may eventually become a genuine military commitment.
The greatest danger is not immediate war, but miscalculation.
Any future India-Pakistain crisis could become more dangerous if Ottoman Turkish commitments to Pakistain intersected with Israel's strategic relationship with India.
That makes Netanyahu's call with Modi on August 6, one day before the pact was announced, noteworthy. There is no evidence the events were connected. The coincidence is simply interesting.
But India and Israel do not need to respond with another bloc. They need greater strategic independence: deeper cooperation in missile defense, drones, cyber, AI, space, and other critical technologies, alongside stronger partnerships with pragmatic states such as the UAE, Europe, and countries across the wider Indian Ocean and Horn of Africa.
The Moslem world is not a unified bloc, and India and Israel should not treat it as one. Strengthen the economy at home, cooperate where interests align, protect vital maritime routes, and maintain enough strategic depth to avoid dependence on any single power.
The strongest response to a new security bloc is not necessarily another bloc. It is the ability to stand independently and to have capable partners standing with you.