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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-

Two deaths per hour. The new Ebola outbreak has become the worst in history

2026-08-20

Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited
by Ilya Maximov

[REGNUM] The new Ebola outbreak sweeping the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has already been recognized as the deadliest in the country's history and one of the fastest-growing in recorded history. As of mid-August 2026, more than 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,378 deaths have been recorded.

The number of cases is growing at an alarming rate: the 1,000-case threshold was crossed in just 40 days, compared to about 235 days during the 2018 outbreak. UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator Tom Fletcher stated that the epidemic is claiming one life approximately every half hour.

This rapid spread is largely explained by the fact that the virus circulated undetected for weeks, even months, before medical officials raised the alarm. Retrospective analysis showed that the first cases could have appeared as early as February 2026, but the outbreak was officially declared only on May 15.

"The epidemic is far from under control. It had a huge lead in time, and we're still playing catch-up," said World Health Organization (WHO) Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

This delay allowed the infection to spread: today, the virus has been confirmed in six provinces of the DRC, including Ituri, North and South Kivu, Tshopo, and Haut-Uélé and Bas-Uélé. Of particular concern is the emergence of cases in large cities such as Kisangani, with a population of over 1.6 million, which poses the risk of further spread along the country's transport arteries.

Ebola is considered one of the most deadly viruses in the world, ranking in the top danger group along with plague and smallpox. According to the Russian Ministry of Health's Treatment and Rehabilitation Center, in some cases, it kills over 70% of those infected.

The disease progresses very quickly: only a few days can pass from the first symptoms to a critical condition. The virus attacks the vascular system, causing profuse internal bleeding and effectively disabling the immune system.

The infection manifests itself almost immediately and is acute. While this makes it easier for medical professionals to quickly recognize the disease, it also means a tremendous strain on the body and a severe course of the disease for those infected. During the current outbreak, the case fatality rate among confirmed cases has risen from approximately 20% in early June to 47.4% by mid-August.

Experts note that the increase does not mean the virus itself has become more deadly; it points to ongoing problems with early case detection and access to treatment.

The main reason the current outbreak is so worrisome is the Bundibugyo strain, for which there are still no approved vaccines or specific treatments. Previously developed drugs target the Zaire strain. Despite expert predictions of a 60-70% cross-protection rate, there are still no licensed drugs specifically targeting this subtype.

The WHO has recommended clinical trials of a vaccine against the Zaire strain to assess its effectiveness against Bundibugyo. Simultaneously, phase I trials of two vaccines specifically developed against this strain have begun in the UK and Canada. However, approval may take months.

The fight against the epidemic is seriously hampered by a severe shortage of clean water. Oxfam's humanitarian mission data shows that only one in five health facilities in Ituri province has access to sufficient supplies.

In Mongbwalu, a major gold mining town with a population of approximately 140,000, only 20% of residents have access to clean drinking water, and only 25% have working toilets and basic sanitation. "Three jugs of water cost 1,000 francs. If you have 10 jugs at home and only have 1,000 francs left, and you also have to feed your children, what will you do?" asks a local resident who has to fetch water from a spring.

Doctors and nurses are forced to work in conditions where there is no safe way to flush patients' biological waste. In some medical facilities, patients' families are forced to collect water from open sources right inside quarantine zones, leading to new cases of infection.

As Dr. Manenji Mangudu, Oxfam's director in the DRC, put it, "without clean water and functioning sanitation, the basic conditions needed to stop the spread of the Ebola virus are simply not there." "When families are forced to collect water from treatment plants because they have nowhere else to go, it's no longer a public health crisis related to water supply. It's a public health crisis with a lit fuse," he added.

The situation is exacerbated by the local population's deep mistrust of healthcare. Residents attack doctors, set fire to mobile hospitals, and hide sick people.

Since the outbreak was declared in May alone, there have been 12 confirmed attacks on medical facilities. Ten Red Cross volunteers were injured while burying victims of the epidemic.

Locals who adhere to traditional funeral rites steal the bodies of those who died of illness to give them their final farewell in their own way. How many people fall ill after such funerals remains an open question.

According to Thierno Baldé, head of the WHO Ebola response, attacks on ambulances are occurring almost daily. During last Sunday's attack in the city of Aru, a crowd ransacked a hospital, wounding an ambulance driver, and escaping with two suspected Ebola patients.

As a result, a vicious cycle develops: people fear the disease, so they don't seek medical attention to help them protect themselves, and they don't go to hospitals because they risk infection. Consequently, many become ill and die at home.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that the epicenter of the epidemic is in Ituri province, which accounts for up to 90% of all confirmed cases.

The region is engulfed in armed conflict, making it virtually impossible for authorities to effectively control the epidemic. Due to the fighting, nearly two million refugees are regularly displaced within and across the region, contributing to the rapid spread of the virus.

Of no less concern is the situation in the provinces of North and South Kivu, where large areas are controlled by armed groups.

All of this poses serious risks to neighboring countries. Uganda has already confirmed 20 cases and two deaths.

The risk of spread to South Sudan remains extremely high: according to a publication in The Lancet, the probability of importation of the virus to the country is estimated at 69%. The WHO Director-General warned that the risk of further spread both within the DRC and across international borders remains high.

WHO officials believe the outbreak in the DRC can still be brought under control within three months, but resources are needed. As Thierno Baldé stated, "Regarding the plan for the next three months, if we have the necessary resources, I think it will be possible."

He emphasized, however, that this is a "window of opportunity" and not a guaranteed scenario: the spread of the disease in the region remains a serious problem, and if it cannot be prevented, the global forecast could also change.

Other senior officials note that the outbreak is still far from being brought under control: 70 to 80% of new cases have no known connection to existing cases, meaning the virus is still spreading unchecked. As Wessam Mankula, a senior official at the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, noted, "We are far from understanding the true scale of this outbreak."

Fortunately, there is no threat to Russian citizens who do not travel to Africa, the Ministry of Health noted. The main thing to know is that there is nothing to fear, but we must not forget about global threats.

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Posted by: Skidmark 2026-08-20 10:17

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