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Arabia
Iran may have already lost the battle for the Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-19

Text:

🚨 IRAN MAY HAVE ALREADY LOST THE BATTLE FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

According to Israeli journalist Tamir Morag, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Gulf states are now moving roughly 15 million barrels of oil per day — around 9 million through Hormuz itself and another 6 million through alternative routes and expanded pipeline infrastructure.

Morag says a significant share is being moved discreetly under protection of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and therefore does not appear in public tracking data.

But the clearest indicator may be the oil price itself.

Instead of exploding toward the widely predicted $150+ per barrel, prices have remained around $85–$90.

Combined with weaker Chinese demand and increased Venezuelan production, Morag argues that the global market is now compensating for most of the roughly 20 million barrels per day that moved through Hormuz before the war.

If that assessment is correct, Hormuz is no longer what is restraining Trump from unleashing the full force of the U.S. military against Iran.

The real concern now is Iran attacking Saudi and Gulf oil infrastructure directly.

Saudi Aramco resumes commercial oil shipments from Strait of Hormuz
[IsraelTimes] World’s top oil exporter still stymied by Yemen’s Houthis in Red Sea, but ships millions of barrels to Asian refineries via UAE port after pause forced by latest US-Iran flare-up

Then there’s this:


won’t escort a ship using Iran’s toll lane

Iran decided to get a headline grab by seizing a vessel that was “obeying” Iran’s silly rules

So the lesson will now be that going along with Iran’s silly rules carries significant risks

Expect more Oman traffic with AIS off
Related:
Barrels of oil per day 08/10/2026 Basra-Kurdistan Region pipeline rehabilitated to boost oil exports: Oil minister
Barrels of oil per day 08/08/2026 Iraq prepares to reopen Syrian land route for oil exports to bypass Gulf
Barrels of oil per day 08/07/2026 'This has never happened before.' A 'pro-Iranian' ally has Erdogan on edge.

Related:
Oman: 2026-08-18 Good Morning
Oman: 2026-08-18 Trump threatened to bomb Oman if the Iran peace deal fails while Houthis claim they attacked 5 Saudi naval ships off Mouthi
Oman: 2026-08-14 Iran demands compensation for Hormuz oil spill apparently caused by its own attack
Posted by:badanov

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Posted by: Lord Garth   2026-08-19 11:16  

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Posted by: Chantry   2026-08-19 08:50  

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Posted by: Grom the Reflective   2026-08-19 02:37  

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