by Nasser Khdour
Middle East Assistant Research Manager
On 30 July, US President Donald Trump announced that negotiations with Hamas have produced an agreement on the group’s full disarmament. Under the plan, Israel should accept withdrawal and halt its attacks in Gaza. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pushed back against the plan, insisting that Israeli forces will not withdraw from their current positions before Hamas fully disarms.
Nasser Khdour, Middle East Assistant Research Manager at ACLED, said:
"Hamas’ position on disarmament follows months of increasing Israeli military pressure. Indeed, July was the deadliest month since the ceasefire began in October 2025, with 170 fatalities. It also recorded at least 53 air and drone strikes targeting militants, police targets, and Hamas infrastructure —the highest monthly total recorded during that period.
"The timing presents an opportunity for Hamas, which expects President Trump to increase pressure on Israel ahead of the US midterm elections in November. Agreeing to the plan helps Hamas ease Israeli military pressure as Israel's national election campaign intensifies, while transferring greater responsibility for governing Gaza to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza helps relieve Palestinian domestic pressure.
| No. The world will let Hamas rearm if Israel does not hold the line here. Then Hamas, et al will try to do another 10/7 — and then Israel will clear the entire Gaza Strip from security fence to Mediterranean seashore to ensure there is no third try by anyone, uncaring that the world screams. |