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| Africa North |
| An inevitable and large-scale clash is brewing in the Sahel between the two rival terrorist groups |
| 2026-07-30 |
Translated Text: iger 🇳🇪| An inevitable and large-scale clash is brewing in the Sahel between the two rival terrorist groups: the JNIM, affiliated with Al-Qaeda, and the Islamic State in the Sahel (EIS or ISSP). ⚠️Niger could become the epicenter of this existential battle. 🔷 On July 13, the JNIM claimed the elimination of Sadou Samahouna (📸below) in an undetermined area along the border between Niger🇳🇪 and Burkina Faso🇧🇫. This EIS commander was considered a traitor by the JNIM after his defection from the organization in February 2026 with hundreds of men. The JNIM feared an EIS attack on its rear base in Niger, while the terrorist group was fully focused on the battle of Anefis 🇲🇱 alongside the FLA. 🔹The EIS, moreover, regularly criticizes this alliance with the Azawad separatists in its daily Al-Naba, a symbol of the ideological differences between the two groups that influence their conquest strategies. 🔶 On July 21, a bloody clash between two groups from the EIS and JNIM was reported in the Tombouctou region, near Gossi in Mali (📸below). 🔶On July 26, the JNIM claimed an ambush in the Sambera area, in the Dosso region of Niger. Until now, the JNIM has largely dominated this sub-region, which includes the WAP complex (transborder parks of Pendjari, W, and Arly), but the EIS is gradually extending its influence along the Niger River and in these border areas with Benin🇧🇯. ➡️ In open war since 2019, the two terrorist groups are thus confronting each other in 5 countries: Nigeria🇳🇬 in Kebbi State, northern Benin🇧🇯, Mali 🇲🇱, Burkina Faso 🇧🇫, and Niger🇳🇪. ➡️The two groups sharing the same potential vital space and the same recruitment pools, a massive clash in the coming months in Niger🇳🇪 in the Dosso region appears imminent, with critical strategic consequences: 1⃣ A loss of dominance by the JNIM against the EIS in Niger would weaken its regional hegemony and create direct threats to its positions in Mali and Burkina Faso. 2⃣ The EIS's takeover of the Dosso region in Niger would facilitate the dream of territorial junction with ISWAP in Nigeria, but would likely provoke a U.S.🇺🇸 military operation. 3⃣ A defeat for the JNIM in the Dosso region and then in southern Burkina Faso would open new prospects for the EIS, which has the stated goal of accessing coastal countries (Benin, Togo, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire), unlike the JNIM, which prefers to establish territorial control around the tri-border area. ⚠️ Paradoxically, the JNIM thus serves as a sort of bulwark against the expansion of the EIS. Related: Sahel: 2026-07-29 Fragmented security allows terrorists’ cross-mobility across Lake Chad and Sahel Sahel: 2026-07-28 JNIM repelled an advance by Africa Corps mercenaries near the village of Hadj Wéré, north of Niono (Ségou region) Sahel: 2026-07-27 JNIM targeted a convoy of the Malian army and the Africa Corps with mortars |
| Posted by:badanov |