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| The Bomber Paradox: The B-21, Nuclear Deterrence, and the Risk of Legacy Defense Assumptions |
| 2026-07-24 |
| by Hannah Jude-Smith, Shane Praiswater and Brian Leitzke [MWIWestpoint] For the first time in its history, the United States must plan to deter and potentially fight two nuclear peer adversaries simultaneously. Russia’s persistent nuclear modernization and China’s accelerating strategic buildup together create a complex and fraught environment that existing policy assumptions have not confronted. Into this environment arrives the B-21 Raider and its associated family of systems, platforms with potentially revolutionary conventional and nuclear capabilities that offer planners new tools for horizontal escalation, precision strikes across contested geographies, and the kind of flexible, survivable conventional dominance that previous bomber generations could not reliably provide. And yet the institutional logic governing how the United States employs its bomber force may prevent the B-21 from being used to its full potential. The nuclear reserve requirement, an ingrained assumption that a meaningful portion of the bomber force must be held back for nuclear contingencies during a peer conflict, risks kneecapping one of the most capable conventional instruments in the American arsenal. But a careful reading of escalation theory, principally the ideas put forth by Thomas Schelling and Robert Powell, suggests that fully committing the B-21 to the conventional fight need not reduce deterrence. In fact, it may strengthen it. THE B-21 AND THE BOMBER PARADOX The B-21 Raider, paired with the F-47 and other current and future joint and coalition forces, is specifically suited to countering adversaries that field antiaccess and area-denial capabilities. As peer competitors invest heavily in layered air defenses designed to deny US forces freedom of action, the B-21 family offers lethal, persistent spectrum dominance in pursuit of air superiority, enabling joint forces to deny adversaries territorial gains and to retain the initiative. The ability to strike across contested geographies makes the B-21 family a new and potentially foundational instrument for escalation management. More at the link |
| Posted by:badanov |
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| Posted by: Dopey Photch2701 2026-07-24 17:23 |
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| Posted by: Lord Garth 2026-07-24 13:16 |
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| Posted by: ed in texas 2026-07-24 09:07 |