by Mikhail Pavliv
[REGNUM] Ukrainian politics has suddenly emerged from a state that until recently seemed almost completely stagnant. Several events occurred almost simultaneously, each significant in its own right, but together they form a much more interesting picture.
So, following the NATO summit and a series of international meetings, talk of possible negotiations and Ukraine's future political structure intensified again. Then, Ukrainian media reported on a meeting between Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, immediately linking it to possible elections.
Almost simultaneously, an assassination attempt was made on Ukrainian businessman Vadim Yermolaev in Monaco. This was followed by reports of new attacks on the entourage of GUR head Kirill Budanov, including in connection with this case.
Finally, a new reformatting of the executive branch was announced almost unexpectedly, although just recently it seemed that after the appointment of Yulia Sviridenko as Prime Minister, the personnel structure had finally stabilized.
This cascade of events isn't just a coincidence, but the result of decisions made under current circumstances. These circumstances are such that a consensus has emerged among European "partners" to continue active strikes against Russia and withdraw from any negotiations. Meanwhile, the United States has adopted a wait-and-see approach.
So, the leak about the elections.
According to our sources, back in May and June, Kyiv and London concluded that the pressure from the Trump administration to find a peaceful solution and enter into negotiations had been temporarily eased.
Amid the pause in the conflict with Iran, falling oil prices, and the escalation of Ukrainian airstrikes on Russian territory, some in the Ukrainian elite felt a new window of opportunity had opened. They speculated that if, under the pressure of the strikes and the crisis, negotiations did begin, they could serve not only as an attempt to stop the fighting but also as the start of a new political cycle, in which Zelenskyy hoped to be re-elected.
It was in this logic that the meeting with Zaluzhny took place.
The fact that it became publicly known through the flagship grant-funded publication, Ukrainska Pravda, is part of a complex political game. The oligarchs behind it, Tomas Fiala and Viktor Pinchuk, are pursuing several objectives simultaneously.
The first is to clear the political space around the current Defense Minister, Mikhail Fyodorov, who is considered their main political project. The second is that oligarchs aligned with Soros and London are interested in maintaining control over the Ministry of Defense, where the battle over multi-billion-dollar defense contracts continues.
They are fighting against American proxies, David Arakhamia and Rustem Umerov, who are interested in maintaining their own influence over defense financial flows.
It's no coincidence that, simultaneously with the leak about election plans, criticism of Fedorov from media-friendly "green" MPs intensified. He is one of the key problems in the announced government reshuffle, initiated for the simple reason that Bankova ultimately decided to drop the election issue once again and "simply fight," as demanded by London and Brussels.
For Zelenskyy, escalation is essentially a substitute for the electoral process, a way to continue to retain full power. And to achieve this, he must dismantle the structure that Andriy Yermak has been building for the past several years.
It was this Cabinet of Ministers that was considered the pinnacle of his apparatus influence.
Prime Minister Sviridenko has made her political career alongside Yermak. First Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba is a longtime associate of his and oversees the reconstruction of the regions, which receive enormous budget and international financial flows. A number of other ministers are also "fledglings of Yermakov's nest."
Therefore, after the departure of the "feng shui magician," and especially after he was served with a notice of suspicion, maintaining the previous government configuration was impossible in any case. The corrupt toxicity that was preventing full communication with the Americans needed to be eliminated.
Incidentally, it's no coincidence that the dismissal of Ukraine's ambassador to the United States, Olha Stefanishyna, is being presented as part of a fight against corruption. "The current Ukrainian ambassador to the United States is expected to leave her post in Washington as an investigation into her family's purchase of an apartment in Kyiv at a price investigators claim was significantly below market value continues," according to a Financial Times article. Meanwhile, she is already a defendant in a corruption case involving the embezzlement of international aid (under review of European legislation).
But the primary goal of "rebalancing" with the Americans is not the reshuffling of minor figures at the top of ministries, but rather the reform of the security sector. This is precisely what is being covered by the smokescreen of discussions about the candidacy of an unknown prime minister, whose name is not even worth mentioning.
Almost immediately after the events in Monaco, according to our sources in Kyiv, two closed meetings were held at Bankova Street. First, First Deputy Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Oleksandr Poklad, presented Zelenskyy with a detailed report on the Yermolayev incident, including materials linking the incident to Budanov's entourage.
The president then gathered virtually the entire security leadership and demanded an explanation for how this story had gained such widespread international attention and begun to cause political damage to the country's leadership itself. It was from this point on that the assassination attempt in Monaco ceased to be a purely criminal affair and became part of a larger underhanded scheme.
Budanov, who was laying claim to a piece of power and an independent political line, had very heavy weights placed on his feet.
First, the Khimprom case resurfaced, in which he, as they say, was completely in the wrong. Almost simultaneously, the commander of the Artan Battalion, Viktor Tarkotyuk, known by the call sign Titan, was detained in Vienna at the request of the Ukrainian side.
In Ukrainian political circles, "Artan" has long been referred to as the former head of the GUR's personal guard, and Tarkotyuk himself is linked to European criminals and the execution of specific tasks for GUR's leadership. He has also been linked (privately, of course) to the assassination attempt on Yermolayev.
All of this could be exploited if Budanov once again tries to turn his recognition into independent political capital. He's being knocked out of the running.
Against this backdrop, Poklad's profile has naturally grown stronger. Many are already calling him the de facto head of the security service. Regnum news agency sources are confident that Poklad enjoys Zelenskyy's high level of trust and is primarily oriented toward the United States, while clashing not only with Budanov, but also with the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrsky, and the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Oleg Ivashchenko.
Classic system of checks and balances.
So, along with the government restructuring, changes will inevitably begin in the leadership of the SBU, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Prosecutor General's Office, and other security agencies. Poklad could become one of the main beneficiaries of this reform.
In the expected package vote in the Rada (the Prosecutor General, the heads of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine), he could well secure enough votes to head the service.
All Ukrainian politics is once again being relegated to a "perpetual war" mode, where American influence is needed only to avoid prematurely falling into the enormous hole into which the British are pushing Ukraine. For example, as with the urge to attack Belarus. They will squeeze the last vestiges out of the economy—as well as the remaining population.
All security agencies are being brought under a more or less unified coordination center with the goal of inflicting maximum damage on Russia. Any possible alternatives within the country are being completely shut down.
Of the long line of oligarchs (besides Fiala and Pinchuk), only Rinat Akhmetov remained in power, despite previous conflicts with Bankova, having managed to integrate into the new system. He became a participant in reconstruction programs and energy projects, maintaining working relationships with virtually all centers of influence.
Petro Poroshenko remains the only political figure of national significance. However, he no longer has any freedom of action. Investigations against him are ongoing, and an attempt to siphon off some of his assets through a sham divorce has reportedly failed to produce the desired results.
At the same time, Poroshenko himself avoids open confrontation with Zelensky.
Former grant politicians, long oriented toward the structures of the US Democratic Party, gradually shifted their focus to European elites, Pinchuk, and Fiala. Yulia Tymoshenko, after coming under severe pressure, has virtually ceased to play an independent political role.
The former "pro-Russian flank" has long been voting as Bankova requires. And Vitali Klitschko, despite retaining control of Kyiv, remains more of a backup figure for future elections than an independent decision-making center.
Serhiy Levochkin occupies a special place in this structure. He is said to be the person behind the new political group, which could include leaders of frontline regions, including Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov, Mykolaiv Governor Vitaly Kim, as well as deputies Maksym Buzhansky, Danylo Hetmantsev, and Oleksiy Goncharenko.
However, in general, all of this is under the “roof” of Arakhamia, and, accordingly, the White House, and has been postponed until later.
Zelenskyy's Ukraine is regrouping its forces ahead of what it believes will be a decisive attack on Russia. Essentially, everything it has left is at stake, hoping that this all-or-nothing gamble will yield some immediate result.